It might be that he has turned the ERG, but I don't think he will turn the Spartans, or all the Labour rebels and the 21 rebel Tory's are not buying it at the moment. There is suspicion going round that it is a trick, another trap. That if Parliament doesn't endorse the deal Johnson will call a confidence vote, or take it as one, in the government, which he will loose and trigger an election. Or that if they vote it through, the Benn act falls and Johnson doesn't need to request an extension, leaving the only option for the opposition a confidence vote and the triggering of a general election before the end of the month.

Of course, everything he does is a trick and a trap. Doesn't change the dynamics. The opposition currently have Boris by the proverbials. He gets a last-minute deal and he has them by same. They can wreck it and absolve him of the responsibility for no-deal / more endless stalemate. Or they can pass it and make him a hero. Either way he wins. Ergo, I predict he now dumps the DUP, swallows the NI only backstop, and goes for Brexity Labour MPs to replace that lost support (and they will come under enormous pressure from their constituents to vote yea).

you write well but you have a fossilized error in repeatedly misspelling 'lose' i.e.

...which he will loose and trigger an election. — Punshhh

Thanks, I am a bit dyslexic, so occasionally get into a rut like that. I find it hard to believe that is how to spell lose, but it must be right, I've checked it. Please do correct me when it happens.

Loose as a goose. Lose your blues.

Yes, I see that, but I also see the pips squeaking in both directions for the Labour rebels. I don't think it can be assumed that Johnson will sway them, it will be going into the lions den for most of them. Corbyn will be impressing it on them that if they hold their nerve just a little longer Boris will crash and burn and 5 years of socialism will be instigated, they can make the necessary reforms that they all want and we still may leave the EU. Or they sell their souls for a bargain basement Trump deal and poverty stricken gnashing of teeth in their constituency's for a decade. What would you choose.
Also I expect some Tory rebels to continue to rebel, as it has now gone beyond the pale and this would not be the end of the shenanigans, but merely the start of a decade of them.

There is talk this morning of a massive bung for the DUP. Someone should have told him that you don't play fast and loose/lose with the DUP and get away with it. Also there is a get out clause for many MPs, they will back the deal if there is a second referendum tacked on.

Of course, everything he does is a trick and a trap. Doesn't change the dynamics. The opposition currently have Boris by the proverbials. He gets a last-minute deal and he has them by same. They can wreck it and absolve him of the responsibility for no-deal / more endless stalemate. Or they can pass it and make him a hero. Either way he wins. Ergo, I predict he now dumps the DUP, swallows the NI only backstop, and goes for Brexity Labour MPs to replace that lost support (and they will come under enormous pressure from their constituents to vote yea). — Baden

The problem with this strategy is that the EU will not agree a deal if they even suspect it wont go through parliament. And I think the DUP view is crucial to their calculations. Are Brussels sure enough about the support for a deal in the Labour party to risk it without the DUP's support? I doubt it. And that's assuming Boris can count on the 20-odd Tories he's thrown out, plus the Spartans..

Interestingly the deal he is bringing back is essentially the same deal which was about to be agreed in December 2018. When Theresa May told the EU negotiators that she had forgotten to pass it by the DUP and had to rush back and eat humble pie in front of Arlene Foster.

The DUP are in the driving seat again, which of course means they have no chance of agreeing the deal. The reverend Ian Paisley must be spinning in his grave.

There is no deal I can envisage that Ireland (and for Ireland read the EU) and the UK can agree on that the DUP will also agree to. Because there is no deal that can remove a customs border between ROI and NI without instituting one either between the UK and NI (unacceptable to the DUP) or over the whole of the UK (unacceptable to the Tories). No amount of creative accounting changes that fundamental reality. And out of Ireland/the EU, the UK, and the DUP, there is only one potentially expendable party to the agreement, i.e. the DUP. Everyone knows that. So, as I see things, it's a matter now of Boris splitting off as many of the hard Brexiteers from the DUP as possible and a hail Mary for Labour support. All this will involve lightspeed levels of spin, but it might just work.

it looks as though everyone is hanging on the word of the DUP tonight. If the DUP say yes, the ERG, some Tory rebels, some Labour rebels will follow and the EU may make a final tiny concession to push it over the line. If the DUP say no, then all bets are off. And we all know what they are going to say.

Surprise surprise, all bets are off.

Now it's the struggle over the Benn act.

News just broke here the DUP are saying Nay.

Is that it for the prospects of any deal by Halloween?

Norman Smith (BBC correspondent) has just said that the problem is that the Stormont vote on rolling over the arrangements with the EU or customs, every 4 years. A major concession from the EU agreed over the last couple of days, is not acceptable to the DUP. The problem being that it would require a simple majority in the Northern Ireland assembly (Stormont) in this vote in order to veto the arrangements. This is because the DUP will be in a minority in Northern Ireland, so they have lost their control over the process.

Not to mention that such a vote would amount to a referendum about the unification of Ireland every 4 years forever. Talk about a recipe for disaster around the border.

Yes, without the DUP they don't have the votes. Johnson has 48hrs to bring them round, but they are the most Stubborn political grouping ever known, so I can't see him succeeding. Even if he showers them with money.

Any other players that can replace the lost DUP votes?

That's a huge concession from the EU and Ireland. There is no way the DUP will get more than that. But these are the people who opposed the Good Friday Agreement, so yes, we shouldn't expect them to move even if the whole thing falls down in pieces around everyone.



What would be amusing would be abstentionist Sinn Fein taking their seats in Parliament for the first time just to support the deal and make the DUP irrelevant. That's a fantasy though.

What a stupid "principle". If you consider yourself not-British then the exercise of power in British politics is totally awesome when you can directly affect politics in such a way that it will benefit NI and Eire as a whole.

Any other players that can replace the lost DUP votes?

Not easily, there is the ERG( the hard brexiters in the Conservative party) who were following the lead of the DUP, so they will give less support now. There are the Conservative rebels who were expelled from the party a few weeks ago, again their support will drain away now. There are the Labour rebels (brexiters), who will again follow the lead of the DUP, so they will fade away now.

Apart from these groups who were hanging on the DUP's response, there is no one. Except possibly Sinn Fein, but that's extremely unlikely because they don't sit in the House of Commons as a protest against British rule in NI. So if the DUP don't turn, it's over.

Yes the DUP have a siege, or bunker mentality, as was pointed out by an Irish political commentator on R4 yesterday. Once the're dug in they hold their ground while the bombs drop around them.

Deal agreed: Well, that's it. Boris has won.

The DUP are now expendable. The Tory rebels on both wings will all now come back in-line, thus healing the recent rift. If the vote on Saturday still does not pass then we'll have a short extention for an election - which Boris can blame on parliament. He can then stand for re-election with a deal in his pocket. Brexit fatigue ensures the opposition have no chance of selling 2nd referendums/ no Brexit policies against that. So Boris is returned with a decent majority, and the deal is voted through by the new parliament. Brexit happens, probably in January...

Not so fast, a lot of the swing votes were waiting to see what the DUP say. Also what they've agreed over NI is a dog's dinner, we will have to see what the swing voters and particularly the Labour rebels think about it. A border pole in Stormont every 4 years, who would agree to that?

Not so fast, a lot of the swing votes were waiting to see what the DUP say. Also what they've agreed over NI is a dog's dinner, we will have to see what the swing voters and particularly the Labour rebels think about it. A border pole in Stormont every 4 years, who would agree to that — Punshhh

I think the Tories will back Boris rather than the DUP. The dreaded backstop is gone, and that was the main stumbling block for the ERG. Teresa May's deal passed in the Commons with the backstop removed remember.. In an election almost no voters on the UK mainland care much about the Northern Irish problem anyway. And in the end the determination to get Brexit done will persuade the ERG to cut the DUP loose and follow their leader. They can't really claim there's a better deal out there and tell him to try again can they?! As for Labour, don't forget plenty of their MPs are in leave-seats and will feel huge pressure to back a deal.

As for the agreement re NI. Anything agreed was going to be a dog's dinner. It's basically a problem of squaring the circle - impossible to keep all sides happy. I think most Tories will decide that the DUP having to settle for a sub-optimal deal is the least worst outcome. I think it has yet to sink in what a huge victory for Boris this is. He has got the EU to back down over the backstop and his take-it-to-the-wire negotiating strategy has thus been totally vindicated. Few would have forecast this. Ok, he's allowed the border in the Irish sea, which as May said and he parroted 'No UK PM could ever do', but as we know, populist politicians can U-turn without their voters caring one jot if their basic aims are met. The ERG will be crowing like grinning ravens over the coming days. They can hardly vote against a leader who's done all they asked..

I even saw Farrage looking a bit crest-fallen when interviewed. He's holding out for no-deal, but the ground is fast falling away from under him. Likewise Junker is saying 'No extention'; but if the deal goes down narrowly in the Commons and Boris asks for one for an election in which the polls have him 10 pts ahead will Junker (or to be accurate, the EU 27) opt for no deal instead? I think not..

almost no voters on the UK mainland care much about the Northern Irish problem anyway. — Tim3003

Nail hit on head.

He has got the EU to back down over the backstop and his take-it-to-the-wire negotiating strategy has thus been totally vindicated. — Tim3003

I agree with your analysis, but has the EU actually backed down? It seems to me they would have accepted this solution earlier, but the British didn't want it.

If you want to do Brexit, this seems the most sensible arrangement.

So, as I see things, it's a matter now of Boris splitting off as many of the hard Brexiteers from the DUP as possible and a hail Mary for Labour support. All this will involve lightspeed levels of spin, but it might just work. — Baden

Here we go...

Nail hit on head.

Quite a few MP's are saying tonight that cutting off NI permanently like this is the death nail for the Union. There will be no way to stop Scotland following next in line. I expect there are a lot of MP's not happy with this dogs dinner. Whether voters don't care about NI or not, MP's do, as they will be culpable and will have to clear up the mess. Unless of course they are banking on reunification with Ireland soon. Maybe that's the answer, but then it's Scotland next.
If so, the Tory's are finished as they will be known as the government which brought about the end of the Union as a result of infighting.

Why is it a mess? The NI assembly has a significant pro-EU majority and (when sitting) will very likely vote to keep EU rules every time. That's why Ireland and the EU agreed to the deal. Nothing's likely to change.

Unless of course they banking on reunification with Ireland soon. Maybe that's the answer, but then it's Scotland next. — Punshhh

Everyone's a winner then.

Everyone's a winner then

Yes, well except for the English, but who cares about them. I'm ok, I will have Scottish citizenship.

I am not so convinced about the numbers in parliament, the DUP's 10 votes are gone and I doubt there will be more than 5 Labour rebels. This deal is far worse for Labour as it leads to a greater divergence from the EU than May's deal did, leading to a Singapore like destination. I can't see Labour rebels wanting to be blamed for pushing that over the line. Also Tory rebels like David Gauke, or Dominic Grieve are not going to be happy.

Also there may be some spartans who think it's a betrayal in the other direction. It will be interesting to watch how the support builds, or wanes over the next couple of days.

I would care if Brexit wasn't the meal they cooked for themselves and NI and Scotland but then are unwilling to toss the shit sandwich in the bin. They tried forcing it on others and those others might decide to go out for dinner instead. Nobody is stopping the English from cancelling dinner and join them in the restaurant. So yeah, pretty much, fuck the English for their self inflicted misery.