Yes, its very sad. The people who will lose out are the moderate intelligentsia, including the entire establishment, who were overwhelmingly in favour of remain. Also the young, there are about 2 million younger voters who are now eligible to vote, but who were to young to vote in 2016. There is a majority for remain in this group too and they are the generation who will have to pick up the pieces.

It really is weird for people who are not in one of the two leave groupings, because it feels like everything was fine and peaceful going along as normal. Then suddenly an upper class twit stood up and said we're going to leave the EU, we need to leave, or we're in trouble. People were thinking what are they talking about, the EU is a great coalition between like minded Europeans, why would you want to put that in jeopardy? Then all these nationalist slogans start appearing and people like Nigel Farage start popping up on TV, with their anti EU rhetoric. Followed by three years of chaos, argument and division.

When the leave arguments are examined they are vacuous, there was a problem with immigration, but it was within the gift of the government to solve that without leaving. But you get the slogans shouted back at you, with no intelligent argument.

"We have to leave because we voted to leave, why did you vote to leave? Because we wanted to leave, we have to leave now because we voted to leave!"

I was thinking about what started all this and I put the blame firmly at the door of the Tory heartlands.
(I am generalising here) I have noticed for over 30 years now the way the privelidged middle class demographic has become money grabbing and cavalier. That it was the bankers who are dominated by patronage from this group which fuelled, or at least capitalised on the short selling which led to the banking crisis. You could see the greed and sharing out of the wealth in their luxury enclaves in the West Country, for example. Following the banking crisis the top heavy Tory party started to nose dive, instigating austerity, a harsh Protestant ethic, which strangled the less privelidged areas of the country draining all their wealth away to pay for the crisis. Of course no bankers went to gaol.

Immigrants were pushed into poorer areas generating more unrest in these areas, which fuelled the nationalist anti immigration movements in the midlands and the north. Meanwhile the right wing press were drip feeding the Tory heartlands with anti EU poison. The Tory party started to split under the strain and the infighting has led us to this point where the far right have grabbed the reigns of power.

I wonder if the Power brokers and capitalists had seen this all along, indeed planned it as they saw where the EU was going with sensible social democratic policies and anticipated laws to restrict the offshore tax evasion industry. Which is where the fat cats have been hiding their money. You can certainly see how the owners of the right wing papers have been planning and feeding this division.

or at least capitalised on the short selling which led to the banking crisis — Punshhh

A bit of a tangent but what makes you say this? We've had a subprime mortgage crisis that started in the US which affected the EU banks in 2007 as well and a subsequent sovereign debt crisis in 2009. I don't see how short selling caused these two banking crises.

I'm not saying the bankers caused the crisis, but they were heavily involved from our perspective and left the UK very exposed. I don't want to get into the debate about the financial crisis here. I mentioned it as the catalyst for the problems in the Conservative party, which has hit the country hard over the last decade leading to where we now find ourselves.

Perhaps the words short selling weren't a good choice.

Sam Gyima has pointed out an interesting scenario which supports what I was saying about Johnson's primary aim to be to neutralise the Brexit party and save the Conservative party, which requires a no deal Brexit.

The opposition is on to this now, so I can see the support from Labour rebels fading away now.

The scenario is, in this deal NI is safely within the EU backstop, but the rest of the country is not in a backstop as was the case with the May deal. So following the transition period which ends at the end of 2020. If there is not deal agreed for our future relationship with the EU, the default position is a no deal, or world trade rules. And if the we want to extend the transition period for another two years, we have to request it by June 2020, which is 7 months away. So all Johnson needs to do now is offer a have my cake and eat it trade deal and scupper the talks, leading to an irreversible no deal exit at the end of the period. This apparently is why the ERG is happy to back it. The whole time Johnson will be free to smear the EU as trying to control us, or trap us in some way, so the anti EU sentiment will only increase.

Thus he would make the Brexit party pointless, all their supporters will come back into the fold and he saves his party from oblivion. Brexit, deal or no deal is nothing more than collateral damage. Albeit it would inevitably benefit his wealthy backers.

↪Tim3003
I am not so convinced about the numbers in parliament, the DUP's 10 votes are gone and I doubt there will be more than 5 Labour rebels. This deal is far worse for Labour as it leads to a greater divergence from the EU than May's deal did, leading to a Singapore like destination. I can't see Labour rebels wanting to be blamed for pushing that over the line. Also Tory rebels like David Gauke, or Dominic Grieve are not going to be happy.

Also there may be some spartans who think it's a betrayal in the other direction. It will be interesting to watch how the support builds, or wanes over the next couple of days. — Punshhh

I think as long as the vote is close - say no more than 10 in it, then Boris can request an extention to hold an election. Most Labour MPs won't back him, but all the talk about worker's rights suffering is a red-herring - that is the 'direction of travel' part of the political declaration, ie not set in stone and up for discussion as part of the future trade deal negotiations. If Labour do not like what the Tories propose they can challenge it further down the line.

With a deal in his pocket I think Tory support will build and the Brexit party will lose most of its vote. Are there really that many Brexiteers who'd prefer no deal to a deal? I suspect a 100+ seat majority for the Tories at that election. The fact that Boris has missed his Oct 31st deadline he can blame on parliament - he's got a deal; it's them who've forced an extention. I am looking for an opinion poll to see if the figures have shifted since the deal was agreed. I'm betting the Tory lead is well into double figures..

I have difficulty telling the difference between remain MPs who accept the vote and those who simply want to stop Brexit and bin the vote. Parliament appears to be doing whatever it can to stop Brexit, exemplified by Hilary Benn passing a law in his own name to "stop the catastrophe of No Deal" only to reject voting for a deal when he is given one.

All bets are off until tomorrow evening, it's basically a coin toss whether Boris's deal will pass, but as Cameron puts it "the greased piglet will slip through".

I would agree with you if the they win the vote tomorrow, although I wouldn't expect such a large majority in the election. However if they lose and it's looking to be by about 10 short at the moment. Then I doubt Johnson will have so much traction during the campaign. He will still have the same problem, if he runs on the deal he's got, or a similar deal he will not drain support from the Brexit party because they think it is not leaving, Farage said as much this morning. Whereas if he runs on a no deal, he loses a sizeable chunk of support who don't want a no deal. So we are back with the infighting in the Conservative side of the argument ( I am regarding the Brexit party as an extreme wing of the Conservative party here).

I would agree with you if the they win the vote tomorrow, although I wouldn't expect such a large majority in the election. However if they lose and it's looking to be by about 10 short at the moment. Then I doubt Johnson will have so much traction during the campaign. He will still have the same problem, if he runs on the deal he's got, or a similar deal he will not drain support from the Brexit party because they think it is not leaving, Farage said as much this morning. Whereas if he runs on a no deal, he loses a sizeable chunk of support who don't want a no deal. So we are back with the infighting in the Conservative side of the argument ( I am regarding the Brexit party as an extreme wing of the Conservative party here). — Punshhh

I think Farrage over-estimates how much of his support is no-deal-of-any-sort voters, and how many just supported him because they thought Boris would not get a deal and would not get no-deal through because parliament wouldnt let him. That made the Farrage way seem the quickest. Speed is what many people want. I hear 'Just get it done' over and again on News vox-pop interviews. Assuming the vote fails tomorrow and no-deal on Oct 31st is prevented by the Benn act, what is the quickest way to get Brexit done? It's an extention for an election, with the Tories winning. No Brexiteer is going to vote for Labour's 'start all over again' route, nor the Lib Dems cancel-Brexit idea. Boris knows that and will campaign ruthlessly on it.. There will still be plenty of remainers left, but with Brexit-fatigue and a deal on offer I expect the pro-Brexit vote to be 65% or more. Boris can spare Farrage 10% and still romp home.. Sadly other issues will probably be swamped at the election.

Maybe that's why Farage looked so sad this morning, it was as though he had seen a ghost.

It won't be getting Brexit done though, unless getting it done is simply crossing the line as it seems is the case for most leavers. Whatever happens after that is of little importance.

Good analysis. :up:

There will still be plenty of remainers left, but with Brexit-fatigue and a deal on offer I expect the pro-Brexit vote to be 65% or more. Boris can spare Farrage 10% and still romp home.

That's not quite how I see it, I think there is a high likelihood that the Tory's will win the most seats though. But if they don't have a majority, who would they negotiate a confidence and supply arrangement, or a coalition with?

↪Tim3003

There will still be plenty of remainers left, but with Brexit-fatigue and a deal on offer I expect the pro-Brexit vote to be 65% or more. Boris can spare Farrage 10% and still romp home.

That's not quite how I see it, I think there is a high likelihood that the Tory's will win the most seats though. But if they don't have a majority, who would they negotiate a confidence and supply arrangement, or a coalition with? — Punshhh

Another hung parliament sounds like a neverending nightmare! Maybe if the polls predict one during the campaign voters would vote tactically to prevent it?

Also, this Letwin amendment has thrown a cat amongst the pigeons. Boris is now saying today's vote may be pulled if it is allowed..

The Letwin amendment has just passed and the government has pulled the meaningful vote, intending to bring it back on Tuesday.

Rees Mogg, the leader of the house has said there will be a meaningful vote on Monday, but the speaker may not allow it.

The Letwin amendment has just passed and the government has pulled the meaningful vote, intending to bring it back on Tuesday. — Punshhh

And Boris still insists on the Oct 31st deadline and refuses to negotiate an extension with the EU. This could be fun for the lawyers..

refuses to negotiate an extension — Tim3003

He doesn't have to negotiate, he just has to send the letter. Word games from him. He's sending the letter.

Another hung parliament sounds like a neverending nightmare! Maybe if the polls predict one during the campaign voters would vote tactically to prevent it?

l can't see a way to avoid it, at least if there is a coalition of the opposition they will enact their plan and the deadlock will be broken by a public vote, a referendum. I put the stalemate down to the inept performance of the government, they should have reached across the isle following the referendum and formed a coalition across the house for a way forwards on such a fundamental change in the future of our country. But they put their own narrow party interest before that of the country.

I know they couldn't have done that due to the depth of the infighting in their own party, indeed they were so ham strung by their own chaos that they were unable to do anything else but deliver us a deadlock in such a shambles. They should be ashamed of themselves.

I saw an interview with Ian Duncan Smith on the BBC following the Letwin vote. He was defiant and spitting profanities in indignation and yet he was one of the ERG who through their ideological erotic spasm delivered us this mess, disgraceful.

he just has to send the letter.

There is a risk, the EU might not grant the extension, or they might say there must be a democratic event, or the meaningful vote must be held first, in which case we might see more chicanery. It's an unknown.

There is a risk, the EU might not grant the extension, or they might say there must be a democratic event, or the meaningful vote must be held first, in which case we might see more chicanery. It's an unknown — Punshhh

Possible, but I think the EU's political leaders probably have enough political acumen to realize that they'd be playing into Johnson's Hands if they did.

Possible, but I think the EU's political leaders probably have enough political acumen to realize that they'd be playing into Johnson's Hands if they did.

Yes, but they will not want to be drawn into the internal politics of another country. They will have to tread carefully.

Already I hear that Johnson sent a photocopy of the letter unsigned, with an accompanying signed letter saying that the first letter is not his words, but those of Parliament and that any delay would be harmful to both Britain and Europe. I wonder if there are threats included. He insisted that he will continue pushing his deal through parliament and will leave by 31st.

I know that they have the measure of him, but if you have a petulant child, it is difficult to manage them without having to step over any red lines.

If I were EU, I’d say: ‘three choices. Vote YES for the deal on the table; leave without a deal; or rescind Article 50. No extension. They’re your choices.’ Takes Johnson’s threat of ‘no deal’ as a bargaining chip, and turns it right back on the Brits.

As a foreign observer: Twinge of admiration for Johnson’s chutzpah; twinge of exasperation for the prospect of Yet Another Delay; twinge of hope for second referendum voting No Brexit.

Already I hear that Johnson sent a photocopy of the letter unsigned, with an accompanying signed letter saying that the first letter is not his words, but those of Parliament and that any delay would be harmful to both Britain and Europe. I wonder if there are threats included. He insisted that he will continue pushing his deal through parliament and will leave by 31st.

I know that they have the measure of him, but if you have a petulant child, it is difficult to manage them without having to step over any red lines. — Punshhh

UK politics must be a laughing stock worldwide by now! The EU are going to hold off granting the extention to the last minute - but grant it they will if need be. They hope that parliament will be scared into voting through Boris's deal before then. It's going to be a game of bluff over the next 2 weeks..

↪Tim3003

Another hung parliament sounds like a neverending nightmare! Maybe if the polls predict one during the campaign voters would vote tactically to prevent it?

l can't see a way to avoid it, at least if there is a coalition of the opposition they will enact their plan and the deadlock will be broken by a public vote, a referendum. I put the stalemate down to the inept performance of the government, they should have reached across the isle following the referendum and formed a coalition across the house for a way forwards on such a fundamental change in the future of our country. But they put their own narrow party interest before that of the country. — Punshhh

If Boris gets his deal through, as I now think is likely if MPs get to look at its detail and are reassured that the govt don't plan a race to the bottom re workers' rights and green policy, then how can he lose the election? Any opposition policies on overturning Brexit will be greeted as sour grapes and dismissed by the Tories. Farage is a dead duck - well, mortally wounded I'd say. I think Boris's charm will win voters over. They'll trust him, despite his impossible 'lower taxes and more spending' policies - Trump won with that manifesto..

As I said earlier, if the deal isn't passed and there's an extension for an election, I think the fact that Boris has a deal will persuade enough would-be-remainers that the time has come to hold their noses and accept it. Party loyalties may well count for little. It'll be a Brexit election.

I have to agree with your assessment of Johnson getting the deal through or winning an election, although I would erh on the side of only just scraping through. But it's looking now that there is going to be a confirmatory referendum tacked on. Or failing that a confidence vote in the last week of October. An accidental no deal at the end of October is not looking likely now as Oliver Letwin is happy and doesn't think he will be bringing any other amendments, so Corbyn will be lining up for the no confidence vote now.

Takes Johnson’s threat of ‘no deal’ as a bargaining chip, and turns it right back on the Brits

Nice, it will really hang Johnson out to dry though and play into Corbyn's hands.

Johnson is a blundering oaf, his chutzpah has no legs, or should I say trousers.

↪Tim3003
But it's look now that there is going to be a confirmatory referendum tacked on. Or failing that a confidence vote in the last week of October. An accidental no deal at the end of October is not looking likely now as Oliver Letwin is happy and doesn't think he will be bringing any other amendments, so Corbyn will be lining up for the no confidence vote now. — Punshhh

My feeling is that an amendment tacking on a confirmatory referendum wont pass. No Tories will vote for it, so everyone else would have to, and I'm sure a few Labour MPs won't want to delay things any further.. It would need a 6 months extension from Brussels I think, unlike the 2 or 3 months for an election, and there'd be huge irritation among the public..

I assume that as the EU seem to have taken Boris's official letter seriously - unsigned or not - no-deal is virtually dead - at least for now.

The DUP said they would support another referendum yesterday, it will be close.

I can't see what possible incentive the EU has for extending the deadline again. They've already made a 'final offer' and then been persuaded to change it again. What is more time required for? What end will it achieve, from their perspective? I think they should hold the line: Oct 31st is it, ready or not - unless the UK revokes Article 50