What are the chances?

None.

China is the largest investor in the US economy.

I assume you mean armed conflict. I do worry. The obvious place where it could happen is in Taiwan. I don't think we should have a commitment to intervene militarily in any conflict there. It's not worth it. That's how World War 1 started. And Korea and Vietnam and maybe Iraq.

On the other hand, I see China's behavior as pretty similar to what the US does and has done. We like to throw our weight around, even to the extent of undermining legitimate governments and starting wars on flimsy pretexts. China is surrounded by potential conflicts much more than the US is. The US has to figure out how to get along in a world with more than just one big boy. More than just two. Lots of countries are starting to grow up economically. I think that's a good thing, but the US will have to learn some humility.

Depends on how willing America is to fight for what scraps of Empire she can continue to exploit. If the US regime is smart, there will be no hot conflict. If they're morons - and there is little to rule this out - they might be.

Sometimes ya gotta do what ya gotta do. And no bluff. If I'm president, I share with the Chinese that if they invade Taiwan, then we're all in. And naturally there are lots of reason not to fight that can be appealed to.

Maybe more interesting is what happens if the Russians try to annex the rest of Ukraine.

Sometimes ya gotta do what ya gotta do. And no bluff. If I'm president, I share with the Chinese that if they invade Taiwan, then we're all in. And naturally there are lots of reason not to fight that can be appealed to.

Maybe more interesting is what happens if the Russians try to annex the rest of Ukraine. — tim wood

This is the kind of thinking that lead to Vietnam, Iraq, and all sorts of other disastrous American military actions. Who says we gotta do anything militarily in Taiwan or Ukraine? You and John Bolton I guess. Sometimes you shouldn't do what ya don't gotta do.

High and tight.

Really? I don't think so. China will continue to expand its power, the US will try to limit that expansion. It's a more stable situation than just having one superpower.

The Taiwan issue is extremely delicate. I fear some mistake could trigger a nuclear war, which is not at all some crazy imagining of mine.

Is this just a case where two superpowers, like US and Russia during the cold war, would both rattle their sabers — dclements

There are always proxies.

It is crucial to have a professional cadre of Special Operations personnel to make resistance effective; through preparation of the (urban?) battle space, transmission of tactics and strategy to the population, etc. But that is all for naught if the population you are going to be working with is itself divided along fundamental views of what a sovereign should be. (Look at the U.S. and the division prep of Putin, et al). Even conventional forces can be divided.

And it doesn’t help when we are propping up anti-popular sovereigns which don’t comport with western liberal thought. Are we afraid of educating small border states in western liberal ideas?

Preoccupation resilience is the only thing that can make post-occupation resistance a viable threat to the occupier. Resilience prevents preoccupation division. If a population goes into resistance divided, then all the resistance in the world is futile. While an external threat can unite a divided population, it will not do so if one side views the occupier as a liberator.

The most cost-effective work-up for the west is a deep steeping in liberal arts, logic, philosophy, history, argument, reason, languages, political science, sociology, psychology, etc. As divided as this herd of cats might be, they will unite against a common external threat to their diversity. Besides, are we afraid that our ideals can't stand up to oppression in some third world border state of China?

If all we are doing, there and here, is STEM, then we are vulnerable to division.

With our ideals, we not only provide a better resistance defense, but we present a better offensive threat to non-western/liberal states like Russian/China. We don't have to attack: we just put them on their heels trying to hold freedom at bay. There is your deterrence. Off balance, unsure, and tepid: that is what keeps them in their place.

That is how small counties punch way above their weight. And we can help if we are not stupid.

I was thinking more Neville Chamberlain, and indeed the history of the 1930s.

It's more like the build up to the first war, with sides being taken for reasons of testosterone-induced posturing rather than on the basis of significant issues.
Paul Keating plays down prospect of Chinese military invasion of Taiwan, urges Australia not to be drawn into conflict

The Taiwan issue is extremely delicate. I fear some mistake could trigger a nuclear war, which is not at all some crazy imagining of mine. — Manuel

No, I know. I just think we're watching the world shifting to two superpowers that push each other

What surprises me us how childish the Chinese seem. They have a ways to go

Why childish?

I don't think the US would like to have China occupy Guantanamo and have their navy patrolling the seas between Cuba and Florida.

I don't like the Chinese government much and I think Taiwan should have autonomy. But what I like or don't like is irrelevant to the situation.

Why childish? — Manuel

It's childish to posture when you're obviously not going to follow through. Neither China nor the US want war. I don't see any avenue to it in the near future.

I don't think the US would like to have China occupy Guantanamo and have their navy patrolling the seas between Cuba and Florida. — Manuel

And in a few years when they've come further into their own and the US is further into decline they can call the shots. We aren't there yet.

And in a few years when they've come further into their own and the US is further into decline they can call the shots. We aren't there yet. — frank

Only economically, which is why there is (or was) all this brouhaha with tic-toc and Huawei, Silicon Valley doesn't want competition.

But militarily, it's not even a competition. The US wins by stupendous margins.

Plus China is heavily invested in the US. Right now, the two countries are joined at the hip. All they can do is spit at one another.

What are the odds... — dclements

None or very little.

I fear some mistake could trigger a nuclear war, which is not at all some crazy imagining of mine. — Manuel

Your fear is groundless.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/11/10/china-holds-military-exercises-slams-us-legislators-taiwan-visit

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/military/article/3155908/china-will-keep-escalating-military-intimidation-taiwan-experts?module=inline&pgtype=article

https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/us-allies-would-take-action-if-taiwan-attacked-blinken-2021-11-10/

https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/front/archives/2021/11/15/2003767889

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/11/15/us-china-taiwan-biden-xi-virutal-meeting

https://www.rfa.org/english/news/china/taiwan-submarines-11112021142036.html

https://www.news.com.au/technology/innovation/military/red-line-us-dangerous-ploy-against-china/news-story/55187d52501a68f1d283e5f24691fd8e

https://www.theaustralian.com.au/commentary/as-drums-of-war-beat-cool-heads-needed-in-uschina-conflict/news-story/eb942c9c9cb15858339f3deaac80bbe4

Yeah. Very much so. :roll:

And your point?

The empire of America has a full-time war economy, it will always need to create new enemies, large and small. Business is business!!

There are always proxies. — James Riley

:up:

Cold War #2...

And we’re still waiting for Cold War number 1 to end

As in conflict with the US? Yeah, highly unlikely. China conflict with other nations is probably not massively likely either. From here on in we’re more likely to see nations crack under their own social strain with maybe the odd mini invasion here and there, but overall all nations will necessarily dissolve and humanity will shift perspectives to a different social paradigm.

That my fears are clearly not unfounded.

People are overstating how effective the US would be at stopping China from taking Taiwan, it's only a matter of time before it becomes so clear that China couldn't be stopped that Beijing can dissuade other nations including the US from trying to help directly. If you mean "near future" as in next five years, that seems really unlikely, but I think at some point Taiwan is going to drop from Poland-status to Czechoslovakia-status. Beijing has always been upfront about aiming for reunification with Taiwan, but war now seems pointless, because each year that passes improves the situation for China, Beijing may as well wait for a more favourable situation, continue to isolate Taiwan diplomatically and strengthen their military.

That my fears are clearly not unfounded. — Manuel

Okay you have a point there. But rest easy, no nuclear war will happen.

Like actual war? None. Every country has too much to lose in today's globalized society so something along the lines of a WW3 is simply not gonna happen (assuming that our world leaders are rational actors). Not that there isn't gonna be tensions between both countries, but it's gonna be more economic than militaristic and on that front the US is losing. The Chinese has the Belt and Road Initiative, but what is the US doing in response to that?

Which country, America or China has the greatest history of imperial expansion. Which country has the other surrounded with military installations and nuclear weapons? Which of the two countries, has more than nine hundred military installations around the world. What is more fearful to you, communism or fascism.

Which country, America or China has the greatest history of imperial expansion. Which country has the other surrounded with military installations and nuclear weapons? Which of the two countries, has more than nine hundred military installations around the world? — boagie

These are the right questions.