Two letters written to God Must Be Atheist by a gorgeous female neighbour of his, and his reply:

1.
God Must Be Atheist, what are your thoughts on the current arms build up and tensions around Ukraine? I am perceiving that the US and Nato are at least partially responsible due to continuing sabre rattling and upcoming war games. The US media (unsurprisingly) is painting it as Putin testing Biden. They always think everything revolves around them and that they are always innocent. I have a friend from St. Petersburg who has explained to me that Ukraine is not a member of NATO (at least for now) and therefore NATO taking part, can only be to ratchet up tensions. Putin's no saint, but he is ridiculously intelligent. Share your thoughts please. It certainly has the possibility of being a flashpoint. Belarus has closed the border, Poland is on high alert.

2.
Okay, I think I have sorted this out. Obviously Putin can't allow NATO on the border and it is his red line. Europe and the USA are pushing for Ukraine to be given membership in NATO and that's why they are planning several wargames there. They are ignoring Purin's red line and this could very well result in war. If Ukraine is granted membership Putin will have to go to war or lose face in the worst possible way. That's a very simplified response to a very complex problem, but it seems that the US is poking the bear. This time I think they are pushing too hard. I don't expect Putin to back down on this. Interesting times

Reply to his neighbour's thoughts by God Must be Atheist:

Dear Gorgeous Female Neighbour, sorry for not getting back to you earlier, but after coming upstairs, I soon fell asleep, and now I'm wide awake, to answer your enquiry.

I am not familiar with the situation there. I thought some time ago that Russia was part of Nato. Russia's membership started soon after they abandoned communism. Did Russia leave Nato, or was it made to leave? I know that nothing little Hungary is (or may be / had been) part of Nato. They got nothing, no weapons to speak of, no standing army to speak of. No oil, no ores, no forests, no courage. Not an army country. Although Hungarians make up for lack of weaponry with a lot of hubris.

To be completely frank, I haven't a clue what's going on there in Ukraine. I therefore agree with your opinion, site unseen, that America is rattling the sabre too hard. Germany would not go for it, but what can they do if there is war already. America, like we said on the bench, is probably worried about a Russia-China alliance.

I observed some time ago that American foreign military policy has taken a turn since Nicaragua. They abandoned to defend democracy against communist expansion, and now their foreign policy is mainly centred on not to own, but to control the world's oil fields. That's why they were so loud about China's occupying the Chinese sea: full of oil, and also fish. It's shallow water.

That's why they obliterated Iraq, that's why they've been starving Iraq, Venezuela; and are buddies with the oil-rich Arab countries' headmen.

Russia has oil that the Americans are not lord over; so this may be their biggest challenge to control (not necessarily own) the world's oil.

Inevitably if Nato attacks Russia, China will side with Russia.

Each of the three principals has got a huge nuclear weapons arsenal.

This may become the last breath all humans ever breathe in human history, if the USA is crazy enough to challenge the Russians to war. What have they been thinking? This is nuts.

We may all soon see a huge white light flare up in the night, and there is not a thing we can do about it.

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My opinion aside, I have one advice for you when it comes to analyzing world politics.

You are worried about the signs of war. Fine, that's a good indication of something, but wars are never wars in, for and by themselves, they are always fought to resolve conflict.

So your job of predicting what's going to happen, or why is happening what is happening now, is to be approached from the deterministic point of view: what CAUSES are / have been present that may instigate the situation?

I brought up oil. You brought up sentiments... sentiments are only to dupe the masses, like the little cute boy that has been killed. International conflict is either about money, resources, land area, and yes, sometimes even over religion. Sometimes it's ethnic strife.

So what I would do in your place, is to look at what it is in the area of resource industry, that either Russia has and America does not. It may be as simple as Russia's closer physical proximity to China, and having shared interest in trade, which will replace America's involvement with China. Russia has forestry and oil and is incredibly rich (like Canada) in natural resources. Amerians don't want to lose the dependence of the industrial base of China on America; and also perhaps America is trying to cancel their debt to China by going into war with Russia, which will pull China in, declaring war on the USA, and then the trillions do not have to be paid to China holding US gov bonds.

I actually said ten years ago that war will come when the USA still holds the first rank in military power, but not in industrial and economic power. That time has come.

A giant world power is kicking its last kicks. It is in financial trouble, being heavily indebted to China; it is in international political trouble with the emergence of Russia, China and even India; it is in internal crisis over race and a divisive internal political arena. It is the end of the USA, and as they go, they may decide to destroy the entire world along with the human species like a dying, selfish, jealous person.