Manuel, read the NYT. The US is only threatening sanctions if Russia invades Ukraine.

StreetlightX is deranged as usual.

This reminds me of court hearings, where both prosecution and defense try to paint the most exaggerated versions events, which has little to do with the reality. One either plays by these bizarre rules or gets smashed by the system. Has this ever been discussed on the forum?

not having a real Russian tradwife like another particular member presumably does — The Opposite

As far as I can see this is just your prejudice about Russian women.

However, I commend you for this:

Upon initially going through this thread I felt like insulting those I believe to be backing Putin [...] however, this ultimately gets no one nowhere. — The Opposite

:up:

This kind of history is totally absent from almost any mainstream discussion on this topic, the latter of which is slavishly regurgitated by people on this forum, among others. — StreetlightX

And yet they make a hand-wringing show of being concerned, worried, etc. It's hard to stomach. Liberals :roll:

Familiar story.

Listen, I agree with the overall thrust of your argument, I don't think the US, has any business with this Ukraine situation. All one hears about is how bad Putin is. Yeah, he's bad, but that doesn't cause a thought to pass through anyone's mind. Everyone nods and adds another insult.

That's easy to do. Much harder is to speak of the many crimes committed by the US, far worse ones.

Having said that, agreed with it, and always keeping it in mind, I do think that Ukraine - and any country really - has a right to security, in case something goes wrong with Russia. If I were Ukrainian, I would like to know my country will be ready for defense, in case anything arises, which might happen, given the current tensions.

Russia, far weaker than the US, is interested in expanding the power they have over each region, that's just a fact. That's what power centers do. But an invasion would be total lunacy, and I don't think Putin is a suicidal maniac. He's a war criminal and a authoritarian, but not suicidal.

What doesn't help, is having NATO go to war with Russia, there are several options to consider first, many of them. But power centers don't like to "look weak".

Each side needs a way to posture to each respective population to "look strong", regardless of how's at fault. I don't know how that's going to come about.

It's mad.

I lean to StreetlightX's approach here in general, though I would express things in a different manner, perhaps emphasizing different things.

Yes, that's what the US keeps saying, that there will be consequences if Russia invades Ukraine. As I see it, they'd have to be crazier than the Taliban to do that, given who they're up against. I mean, it would be inconceivable to me that they would risk it.

It may happen anyway, but I'd be totally shocked.

I hope Germany can help tone down the situation.

It seems simple enough to me, but maybe I gloss over some details. Putin wishes to weaken American influence on former Soviet states because he believes them to be rightly under Russian control and he blames US policy on the destruction of the formerly great Soviet superpower. Any suggestion that the US will tighten its grip on the Ukraine, especially by protecting it under NATO, therefore would be further insult to Russia.

The more the US asserts control, the more Russia must assert control. Neither want war, but that's where the tug of war ends up without some diplomatic solution. The Ukraine has been staring down the barrel of the Russian gun long before today.

It doesn't help that Biden is facing a credibility crisis of his own and that his party is floundering, so he must find a way to look bold and maybe do something desperate.

The US military is mainly interested in getting American citizens out of Ukraine. They don't want to a war with Russia.

Putin knows that, so he's exploring his options.

Yes, the US has a bloody history. You can use that as a reason to become completely blind to what's happening in the present. I don't understand why you would want to do that, though.

Because the issue is framed as "Russia bad", "NATO good". That's not real life. I always think it's a good exercise to think "how would I think if I were Russian, or Ukrainian, etc.?"

That's not done nearly enough in Western media, imo.

When the Soviet Union collapsed, one of the conditions for its dissolution was that a promise was made to Russia that "NATO would not move an inch to the East". Well, now NATO is knocking on Ukraine's door.

Sure the US would want to get its citizens out.

But consider this, would the US want Mexico to become a member of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization? This is a very rough equivalent of NATO for China and Russia.

I think it's clear that the US wouldn't like it, for obvious reasons.

I think if diplomacy was considered more seriously, we needn't have gotten here.

It doesn't help that Biden is facing a credibility crisis of his own and that his party is floundering, so he must find a way to look bold and maybe do something desperate. — Hanover

I agree with your analysis but I’d really like to think that is not a driver.

Because the issue is framed as "Russia bad", "NATO good". That's not real life. I always think it's a good exercise to think "how would I think if I were Russian, or Ukrainian, etc.?"

That's not done nearly enough in Western media, imo. — Manuel

The Pentagon doesn't control the Western media. Beware of click bait

But consider this, would the US want Mexico to become a member of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization? This is a very rough equivalent of NATO for China and Russia. — Manuel

It's not equivalent because the US is a superpower. Russia is not.

I think if diplomacy was considered more seriously, we needn't have gotten here. — Manuel

I don't think so. Putin is not the victim here. If you need to believe he is for some reason, so be it.

The Pentagon doesn't control the Western media. Beware of click bait — frank

CNN and MSNBC are an extension of Pentagon PR. Have you ever seen them not wanting go to war? Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, Syria, China Rand now Russia.

The one guy who spoke against the Iraq war was fired. Donahue, I believe.

It's not equivalent because the US is a superpower. Russia is not. — frank

Russia has nukes. If a war broke out, I don't see how there isn't an analogy here.

Actually - we can use a real life example, which serves as direct evidence here - the Cuban Missile Crisis highlights just how high the stakes go if a nearby country joins with an enemy.

I don't think so. Putin is not the victim here. If you need to believe he is for some reason, so be it. — frank

What I'm saying is that there's rarely innocence in International Relations when it comes to powerful states.

, I do think that Ukraine - and any country really - has a right to security, in case something goes wrong with Russia. If I were Ukrainian, I would like to know my country will be ready for defense, in case anything arises, which might happen, given the current tensions. — Manuel

Agreed - but the fearmongering coming from the Western media - and then transmitted by those who promote the NYT (lol) as a credible news source - is absolutely insane. It strikes me that this bluster of an aggressive war-footed Russia is designed precisely to distract from US agency in dictating how this plays out; distracting too from the fact that the main energies of war are coming precisely from American backed forces.

You're pretty grossly misinformed. Pm me if you want discuss it further.

That's what's likely happening, we'll find out soon enough I'd guess.

It's very dangerous. I mean, they have to know the consequences of fanning the flames, this isn't Afghanistan anymore.

Europe must step up for once and be assertive, if they care about living.



Ah, ok.

Thanks frank. I'll pass for now, but if I find myself being confused, I'll shoot you a PM. :up:

Ukraine to US: STFU please you're going to get us all killed

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on Friday accused the West of threatening the health of the nation's economy by causing "panic" over the threat of a Russian invasion. "We don't need this panic," Zelensky said during a press conference in Kyiv, according to BBC News. "There are signals even from respected leaders of states, they just say that tomorrow there will be war. This is panic — how much does it cost for our state?" Zelensky said the Western media's portrayal of the situation gives the impression of "tanks in the streets of Kyiv." He emphasized that part of Ukraine is already occupied by Russia, while contending that Russia poses a constant threat to his country that isn't necessarily higher at present.

https://news.yahoo.com/volodymyr-zelensky-accuses-west-causing-202633897.html

--

Handy rule of thumb: if you find yourself rooting for the US when it comes to *wink wink* defensive actions outside its borders, you are almost certainly objectively wrong and should rethink your life and never offer an opinion on anything ever again.

As far as I can see this is just your prejudice about Russian women. — jamalrob

Not so. Putin's ultra-conservative treatment of women in Russia has led to the emergence of that stereotype about them.

To be fair to frank, the news isn't run by the Pentagon. In fact, they bypass the Pentagon altogether and go straight to the arms manufacturers.



This is capitalism you know. We don't need Big Government to tell the press what to say. I remember coming across the fact that Alex Ward, one of the writers of that piece, also happened to be an ex-contractor at one of those firms, but I can't find the source anymore. All very cool and normal.

Yeah I wonder if Lockheed Martin built the missile that shot down Malaysia Airlines Flight 17.

I don't play the 'pick my favorite mass murder' game, but you're welcome to choose the US.

Always nice to see liberals use the death of others as an intellectual plaything to justify warmongering too.

Either this, or Russia has every right to put tanks on its borders with the Ukraine. — baker

Actually, Russia can do whatever it wants with it's tanks inside it's own borders. But usually camping over 100 000 men on the border of another country is extremely rare and extremely suspicious. Just like if your neighbor would come and stand on his side next to your backyard armed with a shotgun staring at you and your house. Not typical behavior, but the neighbor can argue that he has the right to do that...

As if Ukraine would constitute a threat for Russia.

Russia's covert online ops teams are also active in propogating false narratives about Western democracies through social media, and amplifying memes like the likely imminent collapse of American democracy and 'America the real aggressor' and so on, which people echo.

Here's a (rather reassuring) analysis in today's NYT by journo with long experience in covering Putin. — Wayfarer

In 2014 the information campaign succeeded and went through well. To tell the truth, if Putin hadn't admitted that "the little green men" were Russian paratroops, but had insisted that they were "Crimean citizen volunteers who had taken up arms" as was the first Russian reply, some idiots would still insist on them not being Russian soldiers. I think this time people are more ready for this. But still, a lot of people will be fooled by total fabrications and outright lies.

The US _wants_ to be on enemy terms with Russia, it accepts no other way of relating to it. — baker

Well, what do you call then all those times that the US has wanted to "reset" the relations? Or how the US helped Boris Jeltsin when he asked for help (for instance in the elections). Just like with China, the US has had a lot of hopes for Russia, hope it would democratize and become more like the West, hopes that had then turned out to be a wishful thinking. And only then things turn sour.



There is consistency in the Russia view, but just compare the diffefence how Russia handled Central Asia (and the US involvement there). Compared to the brute bullying and open hostility against Ukraine and Georgia Russia had a different stance in Central Asia. It even had military bases in the same country with the US (in Tajikistan). Russia kept silent when the US built bases all around in Central Asia. It simply swept back and had it's "sphere of influence" when the US withdrew and now can say simply "No" to any US requests now. As I mentioned before, well before 2014 Putin was very popular in Ukraine. Not anymore. Russia could have prevented NATO far more successfully by simply NOT DOING ANYTHING AGGRESSIVE. The Western powers would have continued to weaken their militaries and NATO would have been focused on the War-on-Terror and other outside operations.

Of course then it wouldn't have Crimea. Which looks like to be what Putin is around for: to make Russia great again. Physically greater.

Yeah I wonder if Lockheed Martin built the missile that shot down Malaysia Airlines Flight 17. — Wayfarer

It was actually shown to be a Russian BUK-M1 missile. They used an equivalent missile given by the Finnish armed forces (as Finland had the same system) and found that the blast marks and the shrapnel were similar. And even found parts of the missile matching the Russian missile. The missile is produced by Almaz-Antey in Russia. The Dutch did they work well.


(And accidents happen in wars...)

Russia could have prevented NATO far more successfully by simply NOT DOING ANYTHING AGGRESSIVE. — ssu

Russia is in an excellent position now to keep Ukraine out of NATO pretty much indefinitely. Everyone here (everyone else, not you) unthinkingly swallows Russian propaganda line about NATO on their doorstep. But as all sides knew even before this brouhaha started, Ukraine wasn't going to join NATO any time soon, if ever. For one thing, joining NATO is a consensus decision of all current NATO members, and whatever was said years ago, few want Ukraine there now. Just the other day the president of Croatia made this very clear (Croatia is a NATO member). All Russia has to do to practically guarantee that Ukraine doesn't join NATO is to maintain the status quo. A country that is continually being bled by its hybrid war with Russia, including a low-intensity armed conflict on a large part of its territory, has no chance of being admitted to NATO or to EU.

Putin is pissed that NATO won't promise to never accept Ukraine. That's the horrific western aggression causing him to need to rip a new one for Ukraine.

Correct.

The point I wanted to make is that they pretend to be "objective", but when it comes to war, they never cease to find one they don't like.

But as all sides knew even before this brouhaha started, Ukraine wasn't going to join NATO any time soon, if ever. — SophistiCat

Exactly. Ukrainian NATO membership was like the potential EU membership of Turkey. And if it wasn't for the invasion into Ukraine, the situation would be totally different. Yet Putin making demands NATO simply couldn't meet is what makes it so sinister. In fact, Russia's demands go against Article 10 of NATO, that goes by the following:

Article 10

The Parties may, by unanimous agreement, invite any other European State in a position to further the principles of this Treaty and to contribute to the security of the North Atlantic area to accede to this Treaty. Any State so invited may become a Party to the Treaty by depositing its instrument of accession with the Government of the United States of America. The Government of the United States of America will inform each of the Parties of the deposit of each such instrument of accession.

Some even seriously thought in the 1990's (before the Kosovo war) about Russia joining NATO, which basically would make it an organization which would be for Article 1, not Article 5.

However smart Putin has otherwise been, the temptation to annex Crimea when Ukraine down on it's knees during the Maidan revolution was too great. This had enormous effects. You see, Georgia (and the Russo-Georgian war of 2008) would have been de facto tolerated. Just remember all the attempts to "reset" the relations. And if Russia uses force in Central Asia and sends troops to Kazakhstan or Tajikistan, it's a non-issue. Just like the US sending troops into Haiti. Good if people even notice it. Ukraine was different.

A country that is continually being bled by its hybrid war with Russia, including a low-intensity armed conflict on a large part of its territory, has no chance of being admitted to NATO or to EU. — SophistiCat

And for that reason both Sweden and Finland cannot write off the possibility, however small, that Russia could stoke a problem in either in the Swedish island of Gotland or the in the Finnish Åland Islands.

My real worry is if Putin sees the situation with Ukraine as "closing window of opportunity": that Ukraine is still beatable, but the further time will go Ukraine will strengthen militarily that would put military victory into serious doubt. Who knows what he is thinking. But then on the other hand, Russia attacking Ukraine doesn't make any sense logically.

Those troops might be positioned close to the border for a long time.

It's hard to see what it is that he is pissed about, what he is trying to gain, and why now. I think that Western diplomats aren't being coy when they say that they are baffled.

Is he enraged about military aid to Ukraine? Well, Russia has been arming, supplying and otherwise aiding and directing rebels inside Ukraine for years, and everyone knows it, and the Russians know that everyone knows - they aren't being particularly sneaky about it. One has to be a terminally oblivious Putinversteher to think that Russia is the wronged side here.

Is he just doing it to keep the West on its toes, as some say? But this is too dangerous and too costly an adventure for such a modest payout. And what would be his end-game? After all these hysterics and military escalation he can't just back down or settle on a reasonable compromise. He is spoiling for a fight. This is the scariest aspect of the whole thing.

I'm guessing he's testing the American commitment to Ukraine and NATO. If he guesses that the US, post pandemic, has zero will to fight a war, he's right. So this is his opportunity.

This is a little article about his PR methods.

Is he just doing it to keep the West on its toes, as some say? But this is too dangerous and too costly an adventure for such a modest payout. And what would be his end-game? After all these hysterics and military escalation he can't just back down or settle on a reasonable compromise. He is spoiling for a fight. This is the scariest aspect of the whole thing. — SophistiCat

The idea that Putin put over 100 000 Russian soldiers on the border of Ukraine just to get attention and have a conversation with Biden doesn't make any sense. But who knows what Presidents-for-life think.

On the other hand, the Ukrainian government accused last November that Russia was plotting a coup attempt in Ukraine. And now also stockpiles of ammunition and field hospitals, the logistical tail needed for a major offensive, are deployed to the border. It's really an enormous effort just to get the attention of the US. It does also look like Putin has gone through many options.

If he guesses that the US, post pandemic, has zero will to fight a war, he's right. So this is his opportunity. — frank

The US is not going to fight, that is totally clear. After all, the war is already been fought (which many here seem to forget).

The US will only make sanctions that won't hurt itself and send weapons to Ukraine. The dying will be done by Russians and Ukrainians, if it comes to that.

My reckoning is that Putin was preparing for an invasion but underestimated the reaction from the West. So he is now caught in a situation where he doesn’t want to launch the invasion but also doesn’t want to be seen to back down. That’s what this journalist is arguing.

The ~13,000-odd casualties of the already-existing Ukraine conflict ought not to be forgotten. My understanding is that this conflict is wholly and solely a consequence of Russia’s territorial incursions - would I be wrong in thinking that?

Where is @swstephe? That user mentioned collusion between the US and Russia. Perhaps this is all a big lampoon in order to keep all respective powers that be in power... they're all éminence grises!