• Benkei
    8.1k
    This thread is intended as a fresh starting point for substantive, evidence-based discussion on Donald Trump, his political legacy and the enduring questions raised by the Mueller investigation and January 6 riot. The previous thread, sprawling over 800 pages, covered much ground but often veered into repetition, flame wars and rhetorical posturing. Here, we aim for clarity, rigour and engagement grounded in fact.

    Some facts have been established in the meantime.

    The Mueller Report: A Recap
    Released in 2019, Special Counsel Robert Mueller’s report was the product of a two-year investigation into Russian interference in the 2016 U.S. presidential election and possible obstruction of justice by President Trump. The report established beyond dispute that the Russian government mounted a coordinated campaign to influence the election’s outcome, primarily to Trump’s benefit. This involved both a disinformation campaign via social media (spearheaded by the Internet Research Agency) and the theft and release of Democratic Party emails via Russian military intelligence.

    The report also documented over 100 contacts between Trump campaign officials and Russian individuals, including meetings and the sharing of internal polling data. However, it did not conclude that these amounted to a criminal conspiracy under U.S. law, citing insufficient evidence and uncooperative witnesses.

    The second volume of the report explored ten instances of potential obstruction of justice by Trump, including his attempts to limit the investigation and pressure witnesses. Mueller did not indict Trump, citing Department of Justice policy against prosecuting a sitting president, but explicitly stated that the report did not exonerate him. Mueller referred the matter to Congress, framing it as a constitutional question rather than a prosecutorial one.

    January 6: A recap
    Since the events of January 6, 2021, a growing body of evidence—gathered through investigations, testimony, and official proceedings—has established several key facts about former President Donald Trump’s actions and involvement.

    In the months following the 2020 election, Trump repeatedly and publicly claimed the results were fraudulent, despite being informed by his legal team, campaign advisors, and Department of Justice officials that there was no significant evidence of widespread voter fraud. Internally, aides confirmed he was aware that the claims lacked merit, yet he continued to promote them to the public. He also sought to involve federal agencies in this effort, including pressuring the Department of Justice to back his false claims. At one point, Trump even considered replacing the acting Attorney General with a loyalist who was willing to advance his narrative. This pressure campaign extended to Vice President Mike Pence, whom Trump urged to block or delay the certification of the Electoral College results on January 6—an action Pence ultimately refused, citing constitutional limits on his authority.

    On the morning of January 6, Trump addressed a large crowd near the White House, repeating his debunked allegations of electoral fraud and urging his supporters to “fight like hell” and march on the Capitol. As the Capitol was breached, Trump watched events unfold from the White House. Reports and testimony later revealed that he was initially reluctant to intervene, and during the critical first hours of the assault, he made phone calls not to halt the violence, but to encourage Republican senators to continue opposing the certification of the election results. Despite appeals from advisors and family members to publicly call off the rioters, Trump delayed releasing a statement. When he finally did, he issued a video telling the rioters to go home—while also repeating the lie that the election had been stolen and referring to the attackers as “very special.”

    In the aftermath, the House of Representatives impeached Trump for “incitement of insurrection,” making him the first U.S. president to be impeached twice. The Senate ultimately acquitted him. However, the matter did not end there. Congressional investigations and Special Counsel inquiries have since uncovered additional details, including evidence that Trump was involved in a broader, multi-pronged effort to overturn the election—ranging from the creation of false slates of electors to pressuring state officials and promoting baseless legal challenges. While he has not been criminally convicted for these actions - and with his releection probably never will, court filings and testimony continue to suggest that he was at the center of a coordinated campaign to subvert the democratic process.

    After he left office, Trump continued to downplay the seriousness of January 6, even going so far as to glorify those imprisoned for their roles in the attack. In campaign appearances, he has referred to them as “patriots” and played musical tributes to them during rallies and issued a blanket pardon to over 1,500 individuals wo where charged or convicted in connection with the events at the Capitol.

    A Polarised Reaction
    Public and political reactions to the Mueller Report and Cogrnessional investigations fell largely along partisan lines. Trump and his allies declared total vindication, while critics pointed to the documented misconduct and pattern of obstruction as grounds for accountability. The same partisanship has been on full display in the previous Trump thread.

    A New Conversation
    We've left the Trump thread rage on for way too long. We've closed it, have established the above as fact and will delete any comment or argument denying it without substantial proof as the crackpot theory it is. As always, participants are encouraged to support claims with evidence, engage charitably with disagreement and resist the temptation of tribal thinking.
  • Punshhh
    2.9k
    Will Trump carry through his tariff war (today is Trump’s liberation Day), or will he chicken out?

    Is it just posturing to do deals, or is it all about something else(more sinister)?

    Is there anything in his ideology(any sense in it), or is it all about his narcissistic ego?
  • Benkei
    8.1k
    Is there anything in his ideology(any sense in it), or is it all about his narcissistic ego?Punshhh

    From what I can make of it, I don't think it's ideology but there seems to be consistency. I would say, he is first and foremost, transactional. There need to be personal or national "wins" and "losses". Loyalty, power dynamics and image outweigh strategy or principle. (And maybe loyality needs its separate point as well?)

    Basic populism is a common thread as well; nationalist, anti-elitist, anti-immgrations and disdain for institutions, norms and the law.

    If I would summarise it, I think it would be like this:

    "The world is a zero-sum game. America is being ripped off. Only I can fix it. Loyalty to me is patriotism. Elites and institutions are your enemy. Winning is the only value that matters."
  • Outlander
    2.4k
    Loyalty, power dynamics and image outweigh strategy or principle.Benkei

    That moment you realize... all of that IS the strategy and principle... (Hey I don't agree with it, but you pander to your audience. Cheap seats fill faster. Am I wrong?)

    anti-elitistBenkei

    So, basically anyone more educated, successful, or for that matter, happier (no not even happy, simply less miserable) than me (not even that, simply a functionally sane and civilized human being in times, places, or situations I simply cannot or will not) is basically/might as well be, the devil. Basically, there's never anything wrong with me, there's simply no logical room for any other case scenario than "that other guy way over there who isn't bothering me and happens to be doing better than me is terrible and is (somehow) at fault". Yeah, sounds about right for the unrefined. :lol:

    Very dangerous mindset. Literally why cages were invented. So those whose minds experienced failure to launch don't drag an entire civilization or society down and cause it to disappear or worse.

    Great stuff here, BTW. Just following from the rafters is all.
  • NOS4A2
    9.9k
    It’s “liberation day”. Trump’s tariff gamble begins and we’ll find out soon enough whether it pays off or sends the world into another depression.

    Already at the table are Vietnam, who announced lower tariffs on American goods, and Israel, who cut tariffs on American goods across the board. But if the rhetoric is any indication, the trade war is poised to continue with other governments.

    The gamble is widely panned by economists. Yet Trump is the first president (as far as I can tell) to take such a bold move on the national debt, which one could argue was about to lead the country into insolvency or collapse.
  • frank
    17.4k
    It’s “liberation day”. Trump’s tariff gamble begins and we’ll find out soon enough whether it pays off or sends the world into another depression.NOS4A2

    What's the metric for success exactly?
  • Deleted User
    0
    This user has been deleted and all their posts removed.
  • Punshhh
    2.9k
    The world is a zero-sum game. America is being ripped off. Only I can fix it. Loyalty to me is patriotism. Elites and institutions are your enemy. Winning is the only value that matters."
    Oh and I’m the most powerful person on the planet and you all have to dance to my tune.
  • Punshhh
    2.9k
    Thanks for the correction, liberation day, I’ve put it right now.
  • praxis
    6.7k
    The gamble is widely panned by economists. Yet Trump is the first president (as far as I can tell) to take such a bold move on the national debt, which one could argue was about to lead the country into insolvency or collapse.NOS4A2

    Isn't the "bold move" about tax cuts (strongly favoring the 1%) and not the debt?
  • ssu
    9.4k
    This thread is intended as a fresh starting point for substantive, evidence-based discussion on Donald Trump, - Here, we aim for clarity, rigour and engagement grounded in fact.Benkei
    Wasn't it the longest thread in PF or is there a thread longer? Over 24 200 replies and over 800 pages... and it wasn't the first Trump thread, only a common Trump-thread put together in 2018.

    But even if it's evidence-based and engagement grounded in fact, I'm not sure you will get it to tone down.

    Just think if we would have this kind of forum in the 1930's, where people anonymously participated from both sides of the Atlantic. Do you think it wouldn't get to repetition and flame wars if people commented about the Great Depression, economic policies to fight the great depression, authoritarianism and rise of Mussolini and Hitler? Or if the topic was the invasion of Ethiopia, the Spanish Civil War or isolationism in the US?

    Anyway, perhaps the "Day of Liberation" is an apt point to restart the Trump discussion, or perhaps in a month we have forgotten it.
  • NOS4A2
    9.9k


    The president’s proposals for tax cuts include no taxes on tips, no taxes on social security, no taxes on overtime, and more recently, no tax for anybody who makes less than $150,000 a year. How do those tax cuts favor the 1% in your view, given that to be in the top 1% you have to make around $800000 a year?

    On the other hand, tariffs are taxes, and those are rising. Whether this and other schemes (like his golden visa) works, I have no clue.

    The debt is what, around 36 million? That means each American is six-figures in the red. “It would take about $8 trillion of ten-year savings to stabilize debt as a share of the economy and about $15 trillion to balance the budget”, according to the Congressional Budget Office. So the battle is uphill, requires all branches and sides to participate, and requires massive reductions in spending. If history is any indication, very little of this will be occurring soon, but maybe Trump can set the ball rolling.
  • NOS4A2
    9.9k
    I just want to submit the following for discussion.

    Talks are now occurring in Canada in regards to zero tariffs, which is exactly what the president wants.

    Ontario Premier Doug Ford said he spoke with Prime Minister Mark Carney about that prospect on Wednesday morning ahead of President Donald Trump’s ominous Liberation Day announcement on sweeping new tariffs.

    Ford suggested that Carney told him a zero-tariff situation was possible if Trump agreed to drop all tariffs.

    https://toronto.citynews.ca/2025/04/02/could-canada-and-the-u-s-strike-a-zero-tariff-deal-ford-says-carney-is-open-to-idea/

    It would be ironic if protectionism ends protectionism, on both sides of the border, but this is the best outcome in my view. Let’s hope cooler heads prevail.
  • ssu
    9.4k
    The president’s proposals for tax cuts include no taxes on tips, no taxes on social security, no taxes on overtime, and more recently, no tax for anybody who makes less than $150,000 a year.NOS4A2
    Yet the average salary in the US is half of that, if not a bit less. And for those inflation will be an issue. Stagflation? How much?

    If history is any indication, very little of this will be occurring soon, but maybe Trump can set the ball rolling.NOS4A2
    Maybe, but I'm not seeing how you would avoid a recession here. Trump of course can make quick turnarounds and people are OK with that. But otherwise what I'm anticipating is just a huge trade war.

    Let's just remember that the Smoot-Hawley tariffs were similar or less (depends on what Trump does today) and, above all, the World had far less international trade and globalization as it has today.

    It would be ironic if protectionism ends protectionism, on both sides of the border, but this is the best outcome in my view. Let’s hope cooler heads prevail.NOS4A2
    I hope that. And here Trump could perhaps do a real turnaround. But how cool heads prevail, we'll see in the following weeks and months.

    ....and NOPE.

    EU 20%
    China 34%
    Vietnam 46%
    Japan 24%
    India 26%

    and so on... :shade:

    Hooray for Mercantilism! :vomit:
  • Joshs
    6.1k


    Ontario Premier Doug Ford said he spoke with Prime Minister Mark Carney about that prospect on Wednesday morning ahead of President Donald Trump’s ominous Liberation Day announcement on sweeping new tariffs.

    Ford suggested that Carney told him a zero-tariff situation was possible if Trump agreed to drop all tariffs.

    Trump doesn’t believe in trade. He has said he thinks trade is ‘bad’, that there is always a winner and a loser. As a mercantilist, the last thing he wants is tariff-free open trade.
  • ssu
    9.4k
    Americans are in for a real ride now. At least for others, it's just the exports to the US going down the drain... for the US consumers, a bit different.
  • praxis
    6.7k
    The president’s proposals for tax cuts include no taxes on tips, no taxes on social security, no taxes on overtime, and more recently, no tax for anybody who makes less than $150,000 a year.NOS4A2

    :lol: That’s what he was promising before being elected.
  • Joshs
    6.1k


    ↪Joshs Americans are in for a real ride now. At least for others, it's just the exports to the US going down the drain... for the US consumers, a bit different.ssu

    I’m all in favor of these tariffs. Trump only won the election because his core MAGA supporters were joined by libertarian free-market neo-liberal business types who believed Trump basically shared their economic perspective, and just used tariffs as a bargaining chip. They didn’t realize the Trump who made them money in his first term was a Trump whose real goals were being constrained by those around him. They didn’t think they were electing an imperialist mercantilist. A lot of them don’t even know what that is, it’s been discredited for so long. But they are likely to learn now the hard way, with a deep recession and steep bear market. If that happens, I think they will vet all future candidates for office to make sure that no imperialist-mercantilist platform ever gets voted in again.
  • ssu
    9.4k
    Trump only won the election because his core MAGA supporters were joined by libertarian free-market neo-liberal business types who believed Trump basically shared their economic perspective, and just used tariffs as a bargaining chip.Joshs
    This is so true.
  • frank
    17.4k

    The futures markets say no bueno.
  • Christoffer
    2.4k
    It's popcorn time for anyone who likes to witness Trump supporters looking confused about their standards of living not becoming what they fantasized it to be under the orange demigod.

    So many hard working people who got indoctrinated into voting for him will now wonder why every damn thing around them got so expensive.
  • creativesoul
    12.1k
    Trump is the first president (as far as I can tell) to take such a bold move on the national debt,NOS4A2

    Bold to increase it by giving huge tax cuts for those who already have the most. Bold to try to pay for that loss by cutting social services and making other countries/trading partners pay for that tax cut.

    Bold indeed.
  • creativesoul
    12.1k
    For Trump to begin his 'liberation' speech by blaming foreigners for the loss of good paying manufacturing and skilled trades jobs shows either his complete ignorance of past administrations' legislation or he's lying through his teeth. If only it were so simple. Unfortunately, there are a very large portion of Americans who are simpleminded enough to believe that rubbish.
  • Mr Bee
    710
    A lot of them don’t even know what that is, it’s been discredited for so long. But they are likely to learn now the hard way, with a deep recession and steep bear market.Joshs

    And they deserve everything that comes from that if they keep wanting to flirt with this moron. Despite the efforts of many to tell them about his tariff plans their reasoning never went beyond "well inflation wasn't a problem when he was president last time so I guess he'll fix it this time".
  • Wayfarer
    24.6k
    A perceptive OP mentioning Huawei's newly-established Research Park in China:

    02friedman1-jumbo.jpg?quality=75&auto=webp

    Built in just over three years, it consists of 104 individually designed buildings, with manicured lawns, connected by a Disney-like monorail, housing labs for up to 35,000 scientists, engineers and other workers, offering 100 cafes, plus fitness centers and other perks designed to attract the best Chinese and foreign technologists.

    The Lianqiu Lake R. & D. campus is basically Huawei’s response to the U.S. attempt to choke it to death beginning in 2019 by restricting the export of U.S. technology, including semiconductors, to Huawei amid national security concerns. The ban inflicted massive losses on Huawei, but with the Chinese government’s help, the company sought to innovate its way around us. As South Korea’s Maeil Business Newspaper reported last year, it’s been doing just that: “Huawei surprised the world by introducing the ‘Mate 60’ series, a smartphone equipped with advanced semiconductors, last year despite U.S. sanctions.” Huawei followed with the world’s first triple-folding smartphone and unveiled its own mobile operating system, Hongmeng (Harmony), to compete with Apple’s and Google’s.

    Trump is focused on what teams American transgender athletes can race on, and China is focused on transforming its factories with A.I. so it can outrace all [US] factories. Trump’s “Liberation Day” strategy is to double down on tariffs while gutting our national scientific institutions and work force that spur U.S. innovation. China’s liberation strategy is to open more research campuses and double down on A.I.-driven innovation to be permanently liberated from Trump’s tariffs.
    Thomas Friedman, NY Times
  • NOS4A2
    9.9k


    Trump doesn’t believe in trade. He has said he thinks trade is ‘bad’, that there is always a winner and a loser. As a mercantilist, the last thing he wants is tariff-free open trade.

    “Mercantilist” is little more than a pejorative, these days, and in that sense quite meaningless. It’s not like we’re dealing in gold bullion.

    Neo-mercantilist? Maybe, though I would argue his policies resemble McKinley more than Hamilton. In any case, with the decline of neoliberalism, neomercantilism stands to be the next paradigm.

    But you’re right. The only way I could see this being a good thing is if it is the only way to combat the neomercantilism of China, who aims to form asymmetrical trade. I’m not too sure, but to me the theory is a sound one. The difference is that Trump aims for symmetrical trade, at least if you consider statements he’s made about fair trade over the past 40 years.
  • NOS4A2
    9.9k


    The president’s proposals for tax cuts include no taxes on tips, no taxes on social security, no taxes on overtime, and more recently, no tax for anybody who makes less than $150,000 a year. How do those tax cuts favor the 1% in your view, given that to be in the top 1% you have to make around $800000 a year?
  • praxis
    6.7k


    A bold move on the national debt?
    temp-Image-Iu6-LKt.avif

    Btw, I haven't heard of a proposal to eliminate taxes for those who make less than $150k a year.
  • Deleted User
    0
    This user has been deleted and all their posts removed.
  • NOS4A2
    9.9k


    A bold move on the national debt?

    Absolutely. No one has utilized so many tariffs, no one has proposed an External revenue service, no one has created a department of government efficiency. Your image says “if not offset”. The offsets just mentioned are far bolder than just taking people’s income.

    Btw, I haven't heard of a proposal to eliminate taxes for those who make less than $150k a year.

    Figures.
  • Punshhh
    2.9k
    Now presumably he will do deals. Deals in which he will extract something from other countries in return for a reduction in tariffs. But what can these countries offer him? With Canada and Mexico it was the same as before, so nothing really. Trump claimed a win and probably believed it was a win.

    So all countries have to do now is bend the knee and dress up what they were already doing as a concession. This leaves the countries, or trading blocks he hates left with the high tariffs, the EU and the Far East. I doubt he will keep the high tariffs on China, I’m expecting a state visit to China with lots of staged handshakes and the greatest trade deal in history.
bold
italic
underline
strike
code
quote
ulist
image
url
mention
reveal
youtube
tweet
Add a Comment