I think Trump is going to win the Republican caucus. — L'éléphant

He will likely win the most number of delegates, but the nomination conference is not until July, and there are, shall we say, legal issues which might become apparent well before then.

:ok: Lets hope

the nomination conference is not until July, and there are, shall we say, legal issues which might become apparent well before then. — Wayfarer

A thought which puzzles me. Why is it that there's not an all-out apparent in his personal and public lives? He's been hounded in all directions.

an all-out what? Trump is subject to enormous amounts of media coverage. There's regular media - NY Times, Washington Post, CNN, MSNBC, critical of Trump. Then there's Trumpworld media, which will back him and repeat his lies ad nauseum. Why he's the favourite, nobody really can tell - it has to do with the way he's captured the grievances of a large section of the electorate who generally hate politics and politicians and feel that he represents them and who for various reasons buy into his delusions. Although it seems obvious to anyone not inside the bubble that it's a con.

Although it seems obvious to anyone not inside the bubble that it's a con. — Wayfarer

The one person that can answer this is @Athena.

Why he's the favourite, nobody really can tell - it has to do with the way he's captured the grievances of a large section of the electorate who generally hate politics and politicians and feel that he represents them and who for various reasons buy into his delusions. — Wayfarer

Seems to me that many Trump supporters think that the system is utterly corrupt, so for them it takes a brash vulgarian, a maverick outsider like Trump to stick it to the system's gatekeepers. The fact that Trump is hated by the media and by corporate elites and intellectuals is part of his attraction. He has the right enemies. Including the 'bought' legal system which is manipulated by his denigrators. He's a kind of outlaw hero now. And for many of the more reasonable Republicans, at least he isn't Biden and part of the soft-cock liberal, virtue signalling establishment which they feel has abraded and perverted the real America built by the Greatest Generation, etc...

He's a kind of outlaw hero now. — Tom Storm

And as such Trump has thoroughly corrupted the body politic, although the rot had already had to have set in.

He has the right enemies. Including the 'bought' legal system which is manipulated by his denigrators. — Tom Storm

Really ironic, that the guy that filled the supreme court, the guy that's being treated by the legal system with kiddie gloves, the guy who has immense legal privilege because of his wealth, is being perceived as being wronged by the "bought legal system".

The golden rule? Do unto others as you would have them do unto you.

Not a fan.

Persecution 101

Dissolving Trump’s business empire would stand apart in history of NY fraud law

Within days, Donald Trump could potentially have his sprawling real estate business empire ordered “dissolved” for repeated misrepresentations on financial statements to lenders, adding him to a short list of scam marketers, con artists and others who have been hit with the ultimate punishment for violating New York’s powerful anti-fraud law.

An Associated Press analysis of nearly 70 years of civil cases under the law showed that such a penalty has only been imposed a dozen previous times, and Trump’s case stands apart in a significant way: It’s the only big business found that was threatened with a shutdown without a showing of obvious victims and major losses.

Lawyers for the state in Trump’s monthslong civil trial have argued that the principles of fair play in business alone are enough to justify a harsh penalty, but even they aren’t calling for the prospect of liquidation of his businesses and properties raised by a judge. And some legal experts worry that if the judge goes out of his way to punish the former president with that worst-case scenario, it could make it easier for courts to wipe out companies in the future.

https://apnews.com/article/trump-fraud-business-law-courts-banks-lending-punishment-2ee9e509a28c24d0cda92da2f9a9b689

Never mind, the replies I read have nothing to do with education or culture. It can go in the garbage. I am done with it. — Athena

Is that a quote from the DT's? Pretty much what he's said about the constitution, the DoJ, international policy, the education system and civil liberties.

Was this is at least partial jest? — AmadeusD

Nope. There is nothing funny anymore about what's happening to the US and the world.

The golden rule? "Those that have the gold make the rules."

I think Trump is going to win the Republican caucus.

Only an AI could run against him.

Thoughts? — L'éléphant

Trump is an AI, complete with hologram form, created by the deep state, or the deep fake, or maybe the deep Putin, who knows?.

Trump is an AI, complete with hologram form, created by the deep state, or the deep fake, or maybe the deep Putin, who knows? — Metaphysician Undercover

Naw, he's just a fleshy manifestation of the American Nightmare.

Really ironic, that the guy that filled the supreme court, the guy that's being treated by the legal system with kiddie gloves, the guy who has immense legal privilege because of his wealth, is being perceived as being wronged by the "bought legal system". — flannel jesus

America is the land of irony. But what you say is only ironic if one shares your frame.

a large section of the electorate who generally hate politics and politicians and feel that he represents them and who for various reasons buy into his delusions — Wayfarer

I think this can be adequately explained by what my wife and I have termed the 60/40 rule. 60% of people don't think either:

1. The way you do; or
2. As well as you do.

In either case, it's going to be hard to parse - and in the latter (the one we prefer in the case of Trump, based on empirical evidence) it is a hard pill to swallow. Most people are dumb. Given that their grievances (to my mind, anyway) are large legitimate, falling for someone like Trump makes the whole of sense.

Nope. There is nothing funny anymore about what's happening to the US and the world. — Vera Mont

I disagree, but that also wasn't quite what i was asking. I am happy to say that If you genuinely think that characterisation is accurate, you are not on top of things. I found it fairly funny tbh..

you are not on top of things — AmadeusD

Who wants to sit on a ticking bomb? Unfortunately, I live just north of it, so 'on top' is not an altogether inapt description.

:lol: Appreciate the humour here!

I think its a pretty near-and-dear type of take. I don't think its accurate, basically.

I don't think its accurate, basically. — AmadeusD

What difference does that make? Lots of people have lots of opinions that have no effect whatever on the outcome.

The question I've been asking since 2021, is 'How can someone who has demonstrably attempted to derail the presidential succession be allowed to participate in the electoral contest?' Now, that is the question at the basis of the disqualification case that the Supreme Court is hearing on February 8th. There is now an advocate for his disqualification in the form of Michael Luttig, a retired federal appellate judge and prominent conservative jurist who is arguing before the Supreme Court of the United States:

Trump incited, and therefore engaged in, an armed insurrection against the Constitution’s express and foundational mandates that require the peaceful transfer of executive power to a newly-elected President,” the brief said. “In doing so, Mr. Trump disqualified himself under Section 3 (of the Constitution).

A just-released PBS documentary, Democracy on Trial, explores these questions in depth and detail. Herewith an excerpt feauturing the testimony of Rusty Bowers, an Arizona state election official who Trump and Guiliani tried to pressure into replacing Biden's electors with Trump's, and who is a major witness at the forthcoming January 6th trial. He's a tried and true Republican, a traditionalist, who found Trump and Guiliani's attempts to have him throw the election both ridiculous and deeply offensive.

Cannot grasp what conversation you think we're having - But that makes no sense to me lol

Cannot grasp what conversation you think we're having — AmadeusD

Really? It's not that complicated. I express an opinion based of what I have heard and seen and you keep telling me it's ridiculous because I've been selectively misinformed about the "real" state of affairs.

I did not make those claims. Are you thinking you're responding to a different poster?

Seems to me that many Trump supporters think that the system is utterly corrupt, so for them it takes a brash vulgarian, a maverick outsider like Trump to stick it to the system's gatekeepers. — Tom Storm

It looks like it is working. In 2017 or 2018, an independent (rather academic) study was conducted about the strength of Trump's candidacy. It was very strong. That was apparently very shocking to the American public.

Trump is an AI, complete with hologram form, created by the deep state, or the deep fake, or maybe the deep Putin, who knows?. — Metaphysician Undercover

Is it psychologically uncomfortable for you to ponder that soon Trump could be president again?

Why do you believe Biden will lose to a candidate he's already beaten once who has done everything since 2020 to shrink his electoral minority base of support and has not increased it (as well as lead the MAGA-GOP to lose almost every popular vote in general, off-year, midterm & special elections from 2016 to 2023 – AFAIK the most sustained losing streak in US electoral history)?

:mask:

Naw, he's just a fleshy manifestation of the American Nightmare. — Vera Mont

:love:

If you genuinely think that characterisation is accurate, you are not on top of things. I found it fairly funny tbh.. — AmadeusD

Hm

Why do you believe Biden will lose to a candidate he's already beaten once — 180 Proof

I reviewed my posts previously and I don't see where I said this. Please tell me where to find this thought?

But let's say, to answer your question -- if one believes the current president might not be president next time, things happen. Simple. He could suddenly keel over, for example.

I don't have a crystal ball.

I might have read this out of context

Is it psychologically uncomfortable for you to ponder that soon Trump could be president again? — L'éléphant

and surmised that you believe it's more likely than not that Biden will lose the 2024 election. My mistake.

if one believes the current president might not be president next time, things happen. Simple. He could suddenly keel over, for example — L'éléphant

IMO, it's merely wishful thinking to believe that the eight year losing trend of 'suppressing minority voters, misogynist anti-choice, The Big Lie propagandizing' Republican candidates will not be reversed merely by Biden dropping out of the presidential race. Like 2020, most likely voters still oppose Insurrection/Criminal Defendent/Rapist-Defamer/Fraudster-1 rather than support President Biden.

Is it psychologically uncomfortable for you to ponder that soon Trump could be president again? — L'éléphant

In my view, it plays into the narrative of the MAGA/Trump mediaverse, which is investing a lot of hype and hot air into bringing about this outcome. And believing it means they're succeeding, so I refuse to believe it! Trump squeaked in the first time, and he and the Republican Party have lost ground since, by ever-increasing margins, in each election. Trump in all likelihood will this year be convicted of very serious crimes against the state, and I believe he'll see the inside of a federal penitentiary before he sees the inside of the Oval Office again.

IMO, it's merely wishful thinking to believe that the eight year losing trend of 'suppressing minority voters, misogynist anti-choice, The Big Lie propagandizing' Republican candidates will not be reversed merely by Biden dropping out of the presidential race. Like 2020, most likely voters still oppose Insurrection/Criminal Defendent/Rapist-Defamer/Fraudster-1 rather than support President Biden. — 180 Proof

I don't follow the day to day american politics. I look at trends and studies. Trump seems to be the only one that is a "brash vulgarian" and a maverick, as @Tom Storm described earlier. Honestly, I'd like to see if Trump could win again. There is fear, for sure, in people because psychologically, Trump's impact is greater.