So one cannot say that the US is evidently blocking negotiations. It is not. — Olivier5
Let's face it: the Ukrainians are not really interested at this point, and nor are the Russians. — Olivier5
One of the reasons it doesn't make much sense to point to arms dealing as the main reason for American involvement is that Obama declined to take forceful action when Russia took Crimea in 2014. You have to explain what changed between now and then.
— frank
There was no fight back from Ukraine. We can't sell weapons to an army that isn't fighting can we? — Isaac
Sorry, I meant military aid. The arms industry sells them the government because they're donating them to Ukraine. Point is the same, that can't happen if there's no fight to start with. — Isaac
A war could have happened. — frank
And somehow the US passed up an opportunity to blow some shit up. :chin: — frank
Still, I didn't know that Johnson had (alledgedly) this effect on Zelensky. — Olivier5
“we want to see Russia weakened to the degree that it can't do the kinds of things that it has done in invading Ukraine."
US officials, however, had previously been reluctant to state as plainly that the US' goal is to see Russia fail, and be militarily neutered in the long term, remaining cautiously optimistic that some kind of negotiated settlement could be reached.
The justification for not doing so — that Putin is a war criminal, that a guarantee on not joining NATO is unacceptable, etc. — is less than unconvincing, in my view. — Xtrix
• Ongoing shelling has led to homes being destroyed with many living in bomb shelters without access to basic services. (Jun 22, 2022)The daily killing of civilians, the torture, disappearances and other violations must stop. If the hostilities will not stop, then the absolute minimum required is to fully respect international humanitarian and human rights law and commit to protecting every civilian woman, man and child and those hors de combat. — Matilda Bogner commenting on findings Feb 24 - May 15 2022
Commitments to questionable future predictions aren't that easy to come by here, especially not in the case of handing over self-power. Loss of any trust there may have been doesn't help, either.
If you want to just lay down and let them do whatever they like because you're so powerless, that's your bag, don't expect everyone else to be so weakly compliant. — Isaac
The basic idea is that the reason Putin invaded is that nobody did anything when he took Crimea. It was nothing but positive for him.
Obama has been criticized for setting the stage for the present crisis by not acting decisively then.
So the notion is that if we don't punch Russia in the nose now, it's going to continue taking things. Biden wants Putin gone. He's already publicly stated that. — frank
No evidence, no 'proof'. — Isaac
The requests for 'proof only started when I objected to that position. — Isaac
You present a position without proof, I object to it, you demand proof of my objection. That's the game we're playing. It's a game of toss and catch with the burden of proof. — Isaac
Classic example...
Let’s assume for the sake of the argument that “In 2 fewer die” is correct and that that’s all that counts. How likely is strategy 2 going to succeed? And how long is it going to take? — neomac
No, let's instead do that with the actual claim I'm arguing against. If you think 1) is the better course of action then you give your figures to support it. And if you just 'reckon' it probably is then stop being so hypocritical in expecting others who disagree with you to do so to any higher standard of proof than you yourself use. — Isaac
The obvious reason this could be the case is that Putin has become the victim of his own information autocracy. He has narrowed his contact with the real world to the degree even his inner circle can’t be honest with him. He presides over a systemically corrupt state - one that exists by faking competence - and now that means he no longer has the good advice and information on which to base his rational calculations — apokrisis
I would think that after Bucha and all the other crime scenes, it's easy to understand why the Ukrainians would want revenge and wouldn't be interested in diplomacy. — Olivier5
On the US side, they have the Red Army right where they want it: in a trap. It is also easy to understand why they don't press for diplomacy. — Olivier5
To put it simply, the U.S. position that the war must continue to severely weaken Russia, blocking negotiations, is based on a quite remarkable assumption: that facing defeat, Putin will pack his bags and slink away to a bitter fate. He will not do what he easily can: strike across Ukraine with impunity using Russia’s conventional weapons, destroying critical infrastructure and Ukrainian government buildings, attacking the supply hubs outside Ukraine, moving on to sophisticated cyberattacks against Ukrainian targets. All of this is easily within Russia’s conventional capacity, as U.S. government and the Ukrainian military command acknowledge — with the possibility of escalation to nuclear war in the not remote background.
The assumption is worth contemplating. It is too quickly evaded.
The basic idea is that the reason Putin invaded is that nobody did anything when he took Crimea. It was nothing but positive for him. — frank
So the notion is that if we don't punch Russia in the nose now, it's going to continue taking things. — frank
Crimea wasn’t a step too far. Donbas separatism wasn’t a step too far. But taking over Ukraine to add to Belarus as part of the new Russian empire expanding back towards its “rightful” place in the world is where you might want to rationally call a halt. And given the chance of a people only too eager to lead their own fight, the US at last had a chance just to spend the dollars and not get directly involved in the way that always goes wrong. — apokrisis
do you write all of these links out yourself, or are these somehow copy-and-paste jobs? — Xtrix
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