you underestimate him
— baker

Just remind me, which President lost his party the Senate, the Congress, and the White House, after only one term?

Don't fall for the illusion that he's powerful. Falling for the illusion is the only thing that makes him powerful. — Wayfarer

Donald Trump might now indeed be what you say. But he is a sign of something much bigger, much more powerful, more pervasive than any one single person is or could be. Even if he doesn't get reelected, it's quite possible that someone just like him, and worse, will be. Because this is what America is all about.

Yeah and there's a big bad wolf under your bed, so watch out.

I see no alternative Trumps on the horizon. Nor, regrettably, much by way of anti-Trumps. But don't loose sight of the fact that every one of Trump's challenges to the election have been comprehensively dismissed and ridiculed, many of the leaders of that effort are facing multimillion dollar lawsuits and disbarment. Again, don't fall for the illusion that Trump projects. That is the problem.

Some people here in Europe think that the US is pretty much the Dark Ages. This idea has been around for decades.

Nor, regrettably, much by way of anti-Trumps. — Wayfarer

Exactly. Can the US even produce a viable counterpart to a Trump? Could a counterpart to a Trump even survive in the US?

There are plenty of vocal and harsh critics of Trump, but not many have captured the public imagination. Trump was manufactured by television. That's where the problem reallly is.

The US has shown an alarming and tragic regressive streak, associated with the moronic elements of what is called 'right wing', although really it's a popular culture phenomenon rather than a political movement per se. But there are also many brilliant people, ideas, cultural movements, in the US. I'm in Aus, but my elder son lives in Wisconsin and his children are growing up there, so I have a direct interest. And I retain hope. If I didn't live in Australia the next place I would live would be there.

Trump was manufactured by television. That's where the problem reallly is. — Wayfarer

:100: :up: The question I have is why? I disagree with the right on most things but I know that somewhere in that 70m people there has to be one with honor, honesty and courage. But they didn't float that person. Why? Because television, that's why. And, of course, because the Plutocracy wants division to keep our eyes off of it as it milks the country dry. And our enemies want it because, well, it keeps us off balance so they can go about whatever they are up to without any threat from us.

Giving all the benefit of the doubt possible, and agreeing that the apple cart needed to be tipped, I can't understand why "we" didn't pick a good human being to lead the way.

I've expressed my thought about Liz Cheney before. So let's try another tack. Why for heavens sake would a guy like Crenshaw not avail himself of the opportunity to stand up on his hind legs and bitch-slap Trump, then run for POTUS? No. Instead he sucks up to him and bows down to a base that he could turn toward himself if he had the integrity to try. The guy was a SEAL, for crying out loud. There is no way a guy like bonespurs Trump would last 5 seconds if some guy with Republican macho cred called him out. Oh well, it's their bed. Hopefully we won't have to sleep in it.

TV is not called 'the idiot box' for nothing. OK I watch my fair share, although I'm old enough to remember it being introduced. But overall popular media is often corrosively idiotic. The other thing is - this is a reactionary comment - capitalist democracy in the US lends itself to stupidity because it thrives on fostering useless consumption, and because it favours greedy and unprincipled opportunists over principled leaders. I mean, long and short, 'pop culture' is a steaming pile of horseshit on the whole (with the exception of all the bits of it I like :yum: )

with the exception of all the bits of it I like :yum: — Wayfarer

I know, right? And then there's the wife who likes her shows . . . so the box is on now and then.

with the exception of all the bits of it I like :yum: ) — Wayfarer

P.S. I can honestly say that I never saw a single second of The Apprentice. I had no idea what all the hub bub was when he ran for POTUS. I thought he was just another city slicker realtor from NYC. Everyone knew but me. :lol:

Right. I've never watched a reality TV show. I watch news and current affairs, but also my fair share of streaming drama, mostly detective and police procedurals. I'm intending to spend less time consuming media and more on learning and reading in future, what with the profusion of learning material that's now available on the Internet. Oh, and more music production.

2024 is far too distant to know what will happen. But it’s very likely Trump is nominated and, once again, has the enthusiasm on his side as the “outsider.”

Given that Biden will likely have a Republican Congress for two years and hence have very few accomplishments, depending on the economy Trump could have a shot. Republicans will try to burn everything down so the country blames Biden. But even then, I doubt he’s elected. He was never elected to begin with.

Maybe people will forget that he was the worst president we’ve ever had, and the four years of chaos we endured — it really depends on how enthusiastic the more sane majority of the country feels. If there’s even some enthusiasm, Trump stands no chance. But Biden is a fairly uninspiring guy…

The thing to keep an eye on is this reconciliation bill. Looks like the Manchin and other Republicans are doing their best to destroy it— in which case we won’t have a livable planet for much longer anyway.

The thing to keep an eye on is this reconciliation bill. Looks like the Manchin and other Republicans are doing their best to destroy it— in which case we won’t have a livable planet for much longer anyway. — Xtrix

I think it's time to do what the Republicans did and throw it all on the table. I think the progressive D's should hold their ground, sink the reconciliation bill, sink the infrastructure bill, and not raise the debt limit in December. Let it all come crashing down. Let the conservative Democrats blame the moderate and progressive Democrats. Let the progressive and moderate Democrats blame the conservative Democrats. Let the Democrats blame the Republicans. Let the Republicans blame the Democrats. Let those worthless whores in the media get their apocalyptical wet dream and throw gas on the flames while giving oxygen to "both sides."

Manchin, Sinema, McConnel, Cruz, those stupid Republican governors, and all the other assholes can suck wind and rule over a burning pile of shit.

I better hope I don't get what I pray for. Because it would hurt those I love. But I had to vent.

TV is not called 'the idiot box' for nothing. — Wayfarer

A little bit south of where I live, it's called "the devil's box".

This has become more actual again now that Biden turns out to be a demented nutjob holding onto power for no apparent good reason, making sure the Democrats will lose. Now that Trump is pretty much a shoe in, what should the EU do and what can we expect with respect to, for instance, Ukraine?

@ssu @Tzeentch thoughts?

In my view, Europeans should not focus on which clown is driving the clown car, nor on anything the clowns are saying.

The only thing that matters is Washington's actions, and what we can reasonably glean to be Washington's interests in order to predict their future actions.

These are some things that in my view should drive European foreign policy:

1. The US must pivot to Asia sooner or later.

2. Due to waves of right-wing populism, the pivot to Asia will constitute a loss of control over Europe, at which point Europe becomes a potential rival to the US.

3. The reason the US hasn't pivoted yet, is because it is busy shaping the political landscape in Europe in a way that will benefit the US when it departs.

4. Both Europe and Russia will have a big role to play in keeping the Chinese economy going when conflict breaks out in the Pacific.

5. Additionally, both Europe and Russia stand to benefit as 'the laughing thirds' from large-scale conflict on the other side of the globe when the two superpowers beat each other to a bloody pulp.

6. Adding 2 + 2 together, the US will do everything it can to A. prevent Europe from becoming a laughing third as the result of a US-China war, and B. prevent Europe from keeping China's economy afloat during a US-China war.


In other words, the US is a major threat to Europe no matter which clown runs the White House, because US strategic interests no longer align with European strategic interests.

For Russia, virtually all the same things are true - it too stands to be the laughing third as the result of a US-China war and play an important role as a market for China.


So, what should Europe do?

First of all, it needs to understand that its strategic interests align more with Russia than they do with the US. Europe and Russia, if they act rationally, should both seek to avoid conflict between themselves and put themselves in position to benefit from a US-China war.

On the other hand, there is nothing that would suit the US agenda more than long-term conflict between Europe and Russia.

European leaders should:

1. Encourage the US (and Britain - but that's another topic) to leave NATO as soon as possible, preferably while keeping NATO itself intact as a European security structure.

2. Steer towards a return to the pre-2014 status quo between Europe and Russia. Open diplomatic talks vis-á-vis Ukraine, normalize relations, trade etc.

3. Dust off their militaries in a non-antagonistic way.

4. Completely reform the EU so that it's an actual functional basis for an independent European state instead of a dysfunctional, compliant US vassal.


In other words, should Trump become president and start threatening to leave NATO, don't stop them. At the same time realize that this is going to mark a fundamental and inevitable change in US-European relations that we are woefully underprepared for and ignorant of. In fact, we should really be acting as though this has already happened, because the US has been preparing for this since at least 2008.

Full Democracies

…

Austria

Malta

Spain — Wheatley

Funny to read an assertion like that. You put us at the bottom. I guess that means we are closer to a flawed nation than a real full democracy like Ireland or Austria.

It should try to be less reliant on the US for its defence by building up one itself, try to establish more of a foreign policy agenda of its own to weigh on its periphery in the first place, and protect its internal market effectively as protectionism is threatening to replace globalism.

All of this means - if it actually wants to make progress on these issues - that it should seek to integrate the EU even more into a real federal entity instead of the half-baked thing it is now.

Should it succeed in these directions the US might even come to value Europe more as an ally, and then Trumps antics maybe won't matter as much.

Failing that, it doesn't look to good for Europe, even without Trump. Trump makes things worse probably, but ultimately it's just a small part of the challenges it faces.

This has become more actual again now that Biden turns out to be a demented nutjob holding onto power for no apparent good reason, making sure the Democrats will lose. Now that Trump is pretty much a shoe in, what should the EU do and what can we expect with respect to, for instance, Ukraine?

@ssu @Tzeentch thoughts? — Benkei

First of all, Biden has been already for a long time a demented politician holding for power and totally incapable of seeing that he himself is not up to the job. Let's not kid ourselves with that.

Trump has been leading the polls and with this pace, he will likely be the next president. But still much can happen.

In my view, the best thing is to just SHUT UP and calmly observe the garbage fire called the 2024 elections. Respect the US political process enough to not to intervene, at least not publicly. The worst thing would be for the EU to publicly support Biden. That would anger many of those that won't vote for Trump and simply offend Americans and likely it will offend Trump even more. Then understand that you will have a weak US administration entangled with domestic problem whatever happens. Only react if Trump attempts to do changes to the relationship, which he surely will do. Then don't budge. Trump is a bully and his followers just love how "the establishment" hates him. Yet he really is no Hitler. His real chance for a self-coup went as he couldn't even control his own security staff that drove him to the White House and not to Capitol Hill as he wanted during that infamous day.

If Trump wins, you will have an more erratic administration as earlier as Trump will likely bring on far more of his totally loyal yes-men into his administration. This actually didn't happen in the first administration: Trump for example brought on totally reasonable military officers (with the exception of Mike Flynn, who lasted 24 days) and they made Trump's foreign policy to be quite standard US policy (what else?). Trump is a great populist, but he lacks leadership qualities. He has the attention span of a five year old, if the topic isn't about himself. Yet after being left alone in the Florida mansion, I think Trump has a lot of built up anger and he has been contemplating "the next time..." for years now. And even if he know does have the best A-team that Republicans can offer, he can be and will be Trump as he is unmanageable. And Trump can promote his most loyal nutjob followers to prominent positions to make a total shit show.

With Biden winning, if that would happen, then it's old-Brezhnev-time for the US where you cannot know who actually is in charge. But it's a collective effort. And if Biden would come down or is hospitalized, then the Democrats have the opportunity to get a candidate that could win Trump.

The only thing here for the EU is to check really it's defense policy and in this field make more cooperation with the UK. As the UK never did leave NATO, defense cooperation would be a natural start for the EU to warm ties with the UK. Yes, NATO isn't in any way attached to the EU, but here the lines organization lines don't matter so much and Austria wouldn't mind.

The only thing here for the EU is to check really it's defense policy and in this field make more cooperation with the UK. As the UK never did leave NATO, defense cooperation would be a natural start for the EU to warm ties with the UK — ssu

I agree roughly with what you wrote, but aren't you going a little light on the UK?

It was their errand boy that went to Ukraine to boycot peace, acting diametrically against Ukrainian and European interests to score brownie points with the Americans.

Especially from a Finn I would expect a certain critical stance towards those pushing for war, since your nation will be on the frontline paying the heaviest price if the worst comes to pass.

making sure the Democrats will lose — Benkei

Not so fast.

I agree roughly with what you wrote, but aren't you going a little light on the UK?

It was their errand boy that went to Ukraine to boycot peace, acting diametrically against Ukrainian and European interests to score brownie points with the Americans. — Tzeentch

During Trump's office, the British Parliament understood quite clearly that if Trump really walks out of NATO, they have to take more role in Continental Europa. I don't think that has changed, from the tanks that the UK had, Challenger tanks are now in Ukraine. Sure, UK wants to be the closest ally of the US, but Trump will shit on every ally it has, except Isreal. In the case of Israel, the US is it's ally, not the other way around. This isn't because of the Jewish Americans voters, but because of the many millions more of pro-Israeli Christian voters in the US.

Especially from a Finn I would expect a certain critical stance towards those pushing for war, since your nation will be on the frontline paying the heaviest price if the worst comes to pass. — Tzeentch

My friend @Tzeentch, we have discussed much in the Ukraine, and if this thread comes too popular or the heated, likely it will whisked away to the Lounge as the Ukraine conflict -thread.

But to others, the actual story both Sweden and Finland did everything to keep the relations normal with the cranky neighbor in the East. And we really did, the whole term of Finlandization was invented for the Finnish situation. But there's a point until you try to be neutral and cordial and keeping up friendly relations to your cranky threatening neighbor. That point was crossed over in February 24th 2022. That it was it. Finland and Sweden abandoned both their neutrality, as Russia is obviously a threat to them.

I'm writing this just a few kilometers from the Russian border. There is NO traffic over the border, for years I haven't seen a single Russian truck and if you want to go to Russia, you have to go through Turkey. The Finnish Armed Forces have put the training cycle to a totally different gear to prop up the deterrence. Russia is spreading bullshit propaganda to it's people over the border that Finland is planning to invade Russian Karelia. Russian Foreign minister Sergei Lavrov yearns for the days of Finlandization and talks about it's opposite "Estonization" which for the Lavrov means Russophobia. (See here)

Well, you reap what you sow.

In my view, Europeans should not focus on which clown is driving the clown car, nor on anything the clowns are saying.

The only thing that matters is Washington's actions, and what we can reasonably glean to be Washington's interests in order to predict their future actions. — Tzeentch

I agree with this, with the addition that perhaps we should listen what the US is saying and try do cooperate with country. The boisterous rhetoric of Trump can be put into one category, it's basically intended for his own base, the actual actions are another issue.

During Trump's office, the British Parliament understood quite clearly that if Trump really walks out of NATO, they have to take more role in Continental Europa. — ssu

Why would continental Europe agree to that?

Island nations have a tendency to become opportunists and 'puppetmasters' due to their relative safety and limited ability for expansion. They should be kept at a safe distance.

Sure, UK wants to be the closest ally of the US, but Trump will shit on every ally it has, [...] — ssu

I think the 'Five-Eyes' alliance, or Anglosphere, plays a fundamentally different role in American geopolitics, with the American commitment to this being a lot less fickle. These nations all share the same strategic challenges. They share intelligence, which is basically the most intimate level at which states can cooperate.

So in my view, Britain searching influence in Europe is mostly political opportunism, and not a matter of security for them.

My friend Tzeentch, we have discussed much in the Ukraine, and if this thread comes too popular or the heated, likely it will whisked away to the Lounge as the Ukraine conflict -thread.

But to others, the actual story both Sweden and Finland did everything to keep the relations normal with the cranky neighbor in the East. And we really did, the whole term of Finlandization was invented for the Finnish situation. But there's a point until you try to be neutral and cordial and keeping up friendly relations to your cranky threatening neighbor. That point was crossed over in February 24th 2022. That it was it. Finland and Sweden abandoned both their neutrality, as Russia is obviously a threat to them.

I'm writing this just a few kilometers from the Russian border. There is NO traffic over the border, for years I haven't seen a single Russian truck and if you want to go to Russia, you have to go through Turkey. The Finnish Armed Forces have put the training cycle to a totally different gear to prop up the deterrence. Russia is spreading bullshit propaganda to it's people over the border that Finland is planning to invade Russian Karelia. Russian Foreign minister Sergei Lavrov yearns for the days of Finlandization and talks about it's opposite "Estonization" which for the Lavrov means Russophobia. (See here)

Well, you reap what you sow. — ssu

Be that as it may, surely you do not want the Americans and Brits to push for war between Europe and Russia?

I get the distrust towards the Russians. What I don't get is the trust towards various other warmongering nations which are just as guilty to this conflict, like the US and UK.

Why would continental Europe agree to that? — Tzeentch

If the US walks away from Europe, then naturally Continental Europe would love to have the support from the UK. Two aircraft carriers are always welcome.

Their primary purpose is overseas expeditions. Not crucial for continental Europe which has airbases all over the place.

Furthermore, I think aircraft carriers will turn out to be massive sitting ducks when the next major conflict that involves them comes along. They'll be like the battleships in WWII.

Nevermind the fascist point. I had something else in mind. :yikes: — Wheatley

But if we want to understand reality perhaps we should discuss what fascism has to do with the strength of the US. The US is not the democracy it defended in world wars. Both the Republicans and Democrats are promising to take care of us, leaving us nothing to do but obey and be thankful we are so well cared for. Tocqueville 1831.

I don't know, but here is what it should do when the whole thing burns:



Leia is Russia btw.

Both the Republicans and Democrats are promising to take care of us, leaving us nothing to do but obey and be thankful we are so well cared for. — Athena

Well, you're an American, right? What else would they say?

We'll be in power and we'll not care a shit about you, but keep voting for us.

Perhaps that would be at least honest?

The US is not the democracy it defended in world wars. Both the Republicans and Democrats are promising to take care of us, leaving us nothing to do but obey and be thankful we are so well cared for. — Athena

Yes, I see this. But there is a tenuous, speculative connection to fascism involved in the analysis. Is there something deeper being indicated here?

Yes, I see this. But there is a tenuous, speculative connection to fascism involved in the analysis. Is there something deeper being indicated here? — AmadeusD

We know fascism for its violence rather than its bureaucratic and economic order. I am offering a link about how popular fascism was in the 30's. I have chosen just one paragraph that got my attention...

Certain British intellectuals were perhaps the most smitten of anyone by fascism. George Bernard Shaw announced in 1927 that his fellow “socialists should be delighted to find at last a socialist [Mussolini] who speaks and thinks as responsible rulers do.”4 He helped form the British Union of Fascists whose “Outline of the Corporate State,” according to the organization’s founder, Sir Oswald Mosley, was “on the Italian Model.” While visiting England, the American author Ezra Pound declared that Mussolini was “continuing the task of Thomas Jefferson.”5 https://mises.org/mises-wire/rise-economic-fascism-america — Mises Wire • Thomas J. DiLorenzo

There are so many ways this discussion could go. Always humans have worked for social security and we have tried many different ways of meeting the needs of the people. Fascism is one of them and its bureaucratic model was adopted by the US in 30s when Hoover and Roosevelt worked together to design big government. This shifted individual power to governmental power, and with this comes promises that our candidates will meet all our needs. Trump goes so far as to claim we will never have to vote again if he is elected because he will resolve all our problems for us. Kamala Harris promises to raise minimum wages but I don't know how this can happen without inflation and closing businesses that depend on cheap labor. I don't think we know enough to make good judgments and this thread is about global ramifications.

Through this forum, I have learned what I consider a fascist order is throughout Europe and this must be so because of the competition for world resources. We must have strong governments to compete and that is not the democracy that came out of the Enlightenment. Technology is changing our lives a lot and that includes the power of governments. Elements of fascism and for sure technology make a government strong. Education is very important to all this.

Donald Trump might now indeed be what you say. But he is a sign of something much bigger, much more powerful, more pervasive than any one single person is or could be. Even if he doesn't get reelected, it's quite possible that someone just like him, and worse, will be. Because this is what America is all about. — baker

What is America all about?

Well, you're an American, right? What else would they say?

We'll be in power and we'll not care a shit about you, but keep voting for us.

Perhaps that would be at least honest? — ssu

Neither one of the US candidates appeals to me. The government is to govern things, not run them.
Both candidates are fighting over who sits in the driver's seat. But what needs to be regulated and how can that be done?

I believe everyone has good intentions but not enough knowledge for good judgments.