Doing absolutely nothing will mean your ICUs are overloaded in week 18 assuming they all have ventilators. The next week you run out of enough beds to take care of hospitalised infected. Somewhere in week 22 you will have over 40% infected and herd immunity will slow the spread. I don't know how much, so I haven't taken it into account for the two weeks thereafter (so you should ignore those). By week 22 almost 2,9 million US citizens will have died (actually, that number is probably delayed by a couple of weeks). — Benkei
Before infection reaches 40%, herd immunity plays a very limited role. — Benkei
"Right now, we have no evidence that the use of a serological test can show that an individual has immunity or is protected from reinfection."
She added: "These antibody tests will be able to measure that level of seroprevalence - that level of antibodies but that does not mean that somebody with antibodies means that they are immune."
You cannot accurately predict the death rate using a snapshot of the fatality rate at a given moment in time and simply extrapolate unless you use a very short timescale. — Isaac
I'm sure there's still plenty that can be perfected in that EXCEL (after all, it's just a quick doodle) but it does give you a feeling of what we're talking about. Doing absolutely nothing will mean your ICUs are overloaded in week 18 assuming they all have ventilators. The next week you run out of enough beds to take care of hospitalised infected. Somewhere in week 22 you will have over 40% infected and herd immunity will slow the spread. I don't know how much, so I haven't taken it into account for the two weeks thereafter (so you should ignore those). By week 22 almost 2,9 million US citizens will have died (actually, that number is probably delayed by a couple of weeks). — Benkei
It looks to me as though that timescale is about up to the point where herd immunity might become a factor. Cohorts will not be exhausted as long as the virus is spreading geographically to new populations. Is that right? — unenlightened
I got it from here : https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30243-7/fulltext
I'd say it's the best estimate we have so far. — Benkei
Cohorts are technically exhausted the moment one person dies, t — Isaac
es. If the UT model is right, Georgia's health system should be ok if they start easing off restrictions. If things explode after a couple of days, local governments will take over and close back down as needed. They will cue off hospital administrators. That's how a lot of the US went on lockdown originally: at the request of hospitals. — frank
Conclusions and relevance: Our cross sectional study in both COVID-19 out- and inpatients strongly suggests that daily smokers have a very much lower probability of developing symptomatic or severe SARS-CoV-2 infection as compared to the general population.
I was thinking Roman army divisions - not exhausted even by decimation. — unenlightened
There is something I like about optimistic recklessness, and this whole thing is way outside my control, so all I can do is watch the wheel spin and wait with excitement to find out. — Hanover
I'm the opposite by nature. — frank
Get involved in philosophical discussions about knowledge, truth, language, consciousness, science, politics, religion, logic and mathematics, art, history, and lots more. No ads, no clutter, and very little agreement — just fascinating conversations.