I'm from the state of Georgia in the US, not the irrelevant country Georgia. Our population is 10.62 million. Theirs is 3.7 million. — Hanover

There's my Trump Googling moment. :lol:

And how anyone can look at 2,700 deaths in one day and say, "Time to open everything up!" is just utterly beyond me. — Baden

Don't criticize what you can't understand.

Don't criticize what you can't understand. — Hanover

Please enlighten me, Coronayoda...

And, in fairness, you said yourself your Governor was an idiot, so what are the chances of this working out well for you down there? Seriously?

Please enlighten me, Coronayoda... — Baden

We're just plain tired of being cooped up like chickens. Time to go out and see what the good Lord has in store. Sometimes you just gotta say what the fuck. It's only as complicated as you wanna make it. How many other ways can I say it to make you understand?

OK, well, good luck. I'll come over for a visit when you've burnt the place to the ground and disinfected it. Time will tell.

And, in fairness, you said yourself your Governor was an idiot, so what are the chances of this working out well for you down there? Seriously? — Baden

Oh, make no mistake about it. He's got shit for brains. But something you got to respect for having that level of defiance. Here's hoping for the best. And I'll do my hoping eating a cheese burger at the fine in, not like you, all cooped up like a scared ass chicken.

And I'll do my hoping eating a cheese burger at the fine in, not like you, all cooped up like a scared ass chicken. — Hanover

Yeah, my life has been turned upside down, I used to spend all day inside working on my computer and only going out to exercise, and now I spend all day inside working on my computer and only go out to exercise within 2km of my home. :lol:

Yeah, my life has been turned upside down, I used to spend all day inside working on my computer and only going out to exercise, and now I spend all day inside working on my computer and only go out to exercise within 2km of my home. :lol: — Baden

That is a saddness that will unfortunately outlast this virus.

I retired from the Kremlin many years ago. — NOS4A2

I just did a search for 'retired' and 'NOS4A2':

I’m retired. Money is already earned, friend. Unfortunately that’s something they won’t teach you in certain circles. :wink: — NOS4A2

Money already earned but "not sure how long that can last." Either you didn't get taught in the right circle or within three months spent all your rubles on cheap vodka? I can't decide which is worse. In any case...

So long as TPF exists for NOS to post on, the dough is rolling in.

Not really, because it was a lie. Me and @NOS4A2 are unpredictable like that. High five, comrade N!

Well, he better work on keeping the story straight or things won't go so well on employee review day. Do they still send nincompoops to the salt mines?

Your imagination is getting the better of you friend.

We need to get to the bottom of this. Are you retired or about to go bankrupt due to the failure of your business? What was your business anyway?

All just fun and games, my friend.

There doesn’t appear to be a significant rise in deaths from respiratory failure since January in the UK. Yet deaths have risen significantly - around 7000 above average in the last two weeks recorded:

https://www.ons.gov.uk/file?uri=%2fpeoplepopulationandcommunity%2fbirthsdeathsandmarriages%2fdeaths%2fdatasets%2fweeklyprovisionalfiguresondeathsregisteredinenglandandwales%2f2020/publishedweek152020.xlsx

Here’s one explanation why :

As the number of confirmed cases of COVID-19 surges past 2.2 million globally and deaths surpass 150,000, clinicians and pathologists are struggling to understand the damage wrought by the coronavirus as it tears through the body. They are realizing that although the lungs are ground zero, its reach can extend to many organs including the heart and blood vessels, kidneys, gut, and brain.

“[The disease] can attack almost anything in the body with devastating consequences,” says cardiologist Harlan Krumholz of Yale University and Yale-New Haven Hospital, who is leading multiple efforts to gather clinical data on COVID-19. “Its ferocity is breathtaking and humbling.”

...

How the virus attacks the heart and blood vessels is a mystery, but dozens of preprints and papers attest that such damage is common. A 25 March paper in JAMA Cardiology documented heart damage in nearly 20% of patients out of 416 hospitalized for COVID-19 in Wuhan, China. In another Wuhan study, 44% of 36 patients admitted to the ICU had arrhythmias.

...

According to one preprint, 27% of 85 hospitalized patients in Wuhan had kidney failure. Another reported that 59% of nearly 200 hospitalized COVID-19 patients in China’s Hubei and Sichuan provinces had protein in their urine, and 44% had blood; both suggest kidney damage. Those with acute kidney injury (AKI), were more than five times as likely to die as COVID-19 patients without it, the same Chinese preprint reported.

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/04/how-does-coronavirus-kill-clinicians-trace-ferocious-rampage-through-body-brain-toes

The general view in the public sphere is that acute respiratory disease (ARDS) is the main cause of death. This appears to be somewhat misleading if a quarter are dying from kidney failure and other complications.

We need to get to the bottom of this. Are you retired or about to go bankrupt due to the failure of your business? What was your business anyway?

Just cross-reference a couple of my posts and fill in the blanks. It’s the scrupulous thing to do.

Just cross-reference a couple of my posts and fill in the blanks. — NOS4A2

I did, and the blank was filled with he's lying.

I did, and the blank was filled with he's lying.

I’m flattered you spent the time.

And how anyone can look at 2,700 deaths in one day and say, "Time to open everything up!" is just utterly beyond me. — Baden

The rich are not getting their promised ROI. Gotta sacrifice a few (tens or hundreds of thousands of blue collar workers, predominantly african-americans) to get the ball rolling again. It's the American Way - shit on your blacks and poor for some dough.

Also, NOS caught on a lie? Ping me when he's caught on a truth.

The UN is now predicting famines of “biblical” proportions within the next few months.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-52373888

If this does come to pass, it will be a man-made catastrophe.

Time to give some help ( subs) to international organisations put in place to help with such crises. Rather than let vanity get in the way.

Just cross-reference a couple of my posts and fill in the blanks.
— NOS4A2

I did, and the blank was filled with he's lying.

I just cross referenced the post where his gran just died and he's been retired for a few years. Something doesn't compute.

Its gonna be a scream in Atlanta.

Yeah, my life has been turned upside down, I used to spend all day inside working on my computer and only going out to exercise, and now I spend all day inside working on my computer and only go out to exercise within 2km of my home. :lol:

Same, no change in my lifestyle. The big loss for me is the charity shops have closed, my wardrobe is going to get behind the times now.

The rich are not getting their promised ROI. Gotta sacrifice a few (tens or hundreds of thousands of blue collar workers, predominantly african-americans) to get the ball rolling again. It's the American Way - shit on your blacks and poor for some dough.

What a head fake: pretend you’re defending blue-collar workers and the poor as you tacitly advocate for the criminalization of their livelihoods. I’m beginning to believe there is something to this privilege thing.

pretend you’re defending blue-collar workers and the poor as you tacitly advocate for the criminalization of their livelihoods. — NOS4A2

Can't have a livelihood when you're dead. It's in the name, see.

I'm always wary of assigning positions to 'brainwashing'. Not because it's not appropriate, but because I don't think it's helpful.

Yes, I should have said grooming (I don't like the sound of the word), their narratives have been groomed. I don't think the true narrative is problematic in this instance because the strategy (to reduce transmission) simply requires social distancing, the stay at home narrative is simple, obvious and can be seen to work. Here in the UK there are government announcements in all media all day stating;

This is a national emergency, stay home, help the NHS, save lives. Anyone can catch it, anyone can spread it, stay home, help the NHS, save lives.

This narrative is very powerful and can be seen to work.

You're right about the signal that's driving this, but with 7 million premature deaths linked to air pollution, the same could be said of anyone driving their car into the town centre. With 1.9 million deaths from diarrhoeal diseases directly related to poverty, the same could be said of anyone not paying a fair price for agricultural products from developing countries. It comes down to beliefs about the weight of responsibility vs autonomy.

Interestingly this crisis shines a light on the flaws in our accepted status quo. Our lifestyles are peppered with failings like air pollution deaths, exploitation of the less well off and foreign farmers, destruction of the environment etc. etc. When one thinks about this state of affairs (and I think more people will do at a time like this), one can see how our governance, regulation, social norms etc are imperfect and such failings are inevitable and inertia within the systems and belief systems makes it hard for do gooders to affect change.

Is it such a juxtaposition though? I see what you mean, but the responsible media (and even scientists) are not made up of people magically immune from influence by their social groups. We shouldn't mistake the clear boundaries to reasonable belief created by science for a guide to 'right' belief. It's not the same thing at all.

Yes the media and social norms are propagating groomed narratives in the UK, for example the grooming that socialism is destructive and conservatism is fiscally responsible by comparison has been ingrained in the social discourse for more than a generation and is seen as normality, truth. But when one takes a closer look there is a continuous stream of propaganda required to maintain this bias. Propaganda which would not be required if it were the truth it's purported to be. Whereas in reality that conservatism has resulted in a hollowing out of the welfare state, underfunding of local councils and civil resources, greater wealth inequality and exploitation of the not wealthy by profiteering capitalists. The propaganda is also utilised to distract attention on these inequalities and sweep the truth under the carpet.

The point is that I think feeling one's life (or those of ones close social group) is at risk really undercuts beliefs which were held only for convenience, but it does not dent those which were held fundamentally. I guess America has more fundamentalists.

Its not clear at this stage how many folk in the UK are fundamentalists, the light has only just started shining on them and they are hiding in the shadows. The one at the top of government has been flushed out, fortunately, Dominic Cummings, who has become irrelevant and presumably doesn't want to get his hands dirty with having to do some real work and help with the logistical nightmare of this crisis. The two main groups of fundamentalists have gone quiet, I suspect that one of them the middle class who fell for the anti EU rhetoric are beginning to wake up a bit to their maliability.

Perhaps mathematical modelling will be important in strategy to come out of lockdowns. In reality though, I think strategy is not complicated here, but is dependent on the understanding of the nature of the virus. Because we don't know if we will have a vaccine, if people will develop immunity, or for how long etc.

So you'd rather sacrifice people than money?

Of course, there's a turning point where the economy's downturn lowers life expectancy and causes depression and poverty. Where this leads to more deaths and sickness than the downturn resulting from an overwhelmed healthcare system, disrupted companies and social unrest when doing nothing, then there's reason to start rethinking the chosen approach of lock downs. The money isn't an issue for the US. As long as the USD is the reserve currency, the USA can issue debt.

I'm not sure how you're going to tell the difference though on what situation would be better. It depends on the type of economy you have, the quality of your healthcare system, your demographics, the room government has to issue debt, local sentiment etc. etc. However you're going to reach a conclusion it involves comparing unknowns and that requires modelling and those are only as good as the assumptions that go into making them.

The best models we have are still estimates. Currently we think it spreads, roughly, with a doubling every week (2.4 per week) of infected, half of which are asymptomatic. It's estimated that of those who develop symptoms, about 20% require hospital care and of those about 30% end up on intensive care. About .06% of all infected die. Before infection reaches 40%, herd immunity plays a very limited role. If you put that into charts, you get this for the US: Covid-19 spread doing nothing in the US

I'm sure there's still plenty that can be perfected in that EXCEL (after all, it's just a quick doodle) but it does give you a feeling of what we're talking about. Doing absolutely nothing will mean your ICUs are overloaded in week 18 assuming they all have ventilators. The next week you run out of enough beds to take care of hospitalised infected. Somewhere in week 22 you will have over 40% infected and herd immunity will slow the spread. I don't know how much, so I haven't taken it into account for the two weeks thereafter (so you should ignore those). By week 22 almost 2,9 million US citizens will have died (actually, that number is probably delayed by a couple of weeks).

I see a bigger problem in how the costs will be borne in the future. If the costs being made by governments to - once again - socialise risks, then more effort should be made to have corporations and the rich pay their fair share in taxes. As opposed to evading taxes as they're won't to do. More than ever, international tax justice is one of the most important social issues at stake.

For instance, we've already had Booking.com claim money from the government because the rule the Dutch government set up was stupid. Booking.com doesn't need the money if you look at the billions of profit transferred to the US, it isn't a "Dutch" company and it doesn't pay taxes here as it funnels all the profits to the US (where it is taxed). This has already created quite the row in the Netherlands as we're quite obviously not looking forward to "bailing" out companies that don't pay taxes here.