I would think South Korea is the other extreme. Where they use your phone data (and they know it's yours, with name and everything) to warn everybody with a cellphone in your vicinity that you have or are suspected to have Coronavirus. — Benkei

We had too our first death after implementing the lockdown. Yet I'm not sure if Sweden is totally opposite to New Zealand. I think there's a lot more variables than the policy measures taken especially if you haven't chosen the South Korea / Singapore option right from the start. — ssu

Yes, agreed. South Korea/Singapore got ahead of the curve early on, which NZ was not able to do (before lockdown).

In the UK, in our equivalent of freshman year, we normally get our own (small) rooms and have flatmates in shared accommodation. — Evil

My uni halls had single and shared rooms. I had a single thankfully.

http://imgur.com/gallery/UEzInUR
As misanthropist i don't see nothing wrong here. :razz:

Baden: Your prediction of 150,000 is pretty much on the money. — Andrew M

Baden wins!

People (like Bitter Crank, Benkei etc.) have made good forecasts on this thread, which was started 25th of February. I have to admit that I'm not one of them. I assumed that this would be on the line of previous outbreaks in this Century and thought it would be something equivalent of the SARS outbreak. No cigar for that one.

My uni halls had single and shared rooms. I had a single thankfully.

I lived in a caravan next to a field of pigs, rather than pay rent and spent the money in the pub.

I don't think we will be over the peak anytime soon, in the UK the experts announced yesterday that the lockdown is expected to last for at least 6 months, with only tentative attempts at relaxation of measures towards the end of this period. Personally, I expect it to be for a few more months than that before significant restrictions can be lifted. — Punshhh

That’s not exactly what was said. They said restrictions would hopefully be completely lifted in 6 months, not there will be 6 months of lockdown. At the moment the message in the UK is quite clear, and they are being open about the unpredictable nature of this - if you’ve run any mathematical models yourself you’ll see that the EXACT same figures ran twice through identical models DO NOT show exactly the same results (that is the nature of nature).

The message was they hope to have a better idea about the flattening of the curve in 3 months time, that after that period (if it is falling off) they will VERY slowly lift restrictions.

The key point being they don’t really know and will be able to tell us more in 2-3 weeks once the virus does what it does to those infected.

Think of this akin to predicting the weather. We know summers are hot, but we cannot say exactly how hot they will be and the accuracy of our predictions improves the closer we get to the time and we learn how to predict better due to observing patterns.

Note: I think it is wise to look at this going beyond 6 months. It helps to be pessimistic in these situations. Where I am schools closed as a continuation of the New Year Holiday with plans to open within 2 weeks ... then 2 more weeks, then ... you get the idea. As soon as I heard about this I told myself June, now I’m saying September but I wouldn’t be completely shocked if schooled simply shutdown all year - it depends whether or not cases go up here.

The possible benefit of this whole situation is that less developed countries can now clearly see what happens if you don’t stop the spread early doors. Hopefully Europe and North America’s mistakes can help those much more vulnerable countries act quickly - I really hope so because they just don’t have anything like the kind of healthcare in place that they do.

The possible benefit of this whole situation is that less developed countries can now clearly see what happens if you don’t stop the spread early doors. Hopefully Europe and North America’s mistakes can help those much more vulnerable countries act quickly - I really hope so because they just don’t have anything like the kind of healthcare in place that they do. — I like sushi

I wonder if that might actually somewhat lessen the impact the illness has on these countries psychologically and possibly economically. I know it sounds callous, but the poorer people in those countries often die of preventable diseases. Things that are considered only in dire situations in more affluent countries, like simply not treating people that don't have good chances of survival, are more common even under normal circumstances. Of course the sheer displacement due to illness, death, and fear of either will have a significant impact regardless.

RE: the above, it's been interesting to track the reaction to the virus in India, which acted with extreme rapidity and decisiveness long before CV became a standing threat in the country itself. They've had <1K infections so far and enacted travel restrictions and mass gathering bans as infections were growing in other countries. They've had the 'advantage' - if you can call it that - of knowing full well that their health institutions will not be able to handle the pandemic if it grows out of control there, so have been crazy pro-active in trying to prevent it's intrusion into the community. Seems to be holding fast so far, one only hopes it keeps up.

--

Otherwise, one of the interesting effects this virus might have is to forge far stronger international cooperation with respect to health. Everything's so interconnected now that an outbreak in India or any other developing nation will inevitably have pretty terrible effects on the so-called developed world. The global north will be forced - out of sheer self-interest - to help fund, train and shore up the healthcare systems of the rest of the world in order to contain its spread. Virus' don't give a flying fig about borders, and, if played right, nationalism will be seen as a strategy of massive failure with respect to a properly global threat. This comes with dangers of its own but I'm hopeful here that this is one of the few cases where a rising tide lifting all boats may actually be meaningful.

Speaking of Darwin, the award goes to...

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/mar/24/liberty-university-reopens-despite-coronavirus-closure-calls-jerry-falwell-jr?CMP=share_btn_fb&fbclid=IwAR2Tr7pQIYVN5qq79Uk8jdRdIB3EVBBCLAwYypw8MLoF9qDPHW_ex4Sbj-M

What was that about Jesus, again? — unenlightened

The story continues....

Eleven students who attend Liberty University in Lynchburg, Virginia, have come down with coronavirus symptoms after returning to campus. - Nonetheless, 1,900 students returned to campus last week, but 800 have since left

See article

However, not everything is at what it first seems like. Perhaps this interview with Falwell clears a little bit the situation (and shows what Falwell's is really thinking about the pandemic). From four days ago:

I lived in a caravan next to a field of pigs, rather than pay rent and spent the money in the pub. — Punshhh

Eh, student loans paid for my rent so I'm all good there.

Yes, but when and how are such countries going to assist poorer ones?

I don't think any government had any choice in the action they took, each developed country has gone the same way, except those where religion trumps all other considerations. There is some variation in the action, but the result is the same.

Regarding the tentative relaxation of the measures. I can't see any timely progress, as each time there will be another spike. Although there is great uncertainty about how this will pan out. Perhaps Italy will give us some hope soon.

India is very worrying, there are simply to many people in a mainly poor unresourced country.

A spike in Tokyo now, perhaps the lack of testing failed to pick this up.

Trump brags about his ratings, claiming stable genius in saving the American people from the Chinese virus. And snubs prince Harry, no special trade deal now.

Good day at the office.

They've had the 'advantage' - if you can call it that - of knowing full well that their health institutions will not be able to handle the pandemic if it grows out of control there, so have been crazy pro-active in trying to prevent it's intrusion into the community. Seems to be holding fast so far, one only hopes it keeps up. — StreetlightX

Well, they got their version of South Korea's Patient 31, the "Super-spreader".

At least 15,000 people who may have caught the new coronavirus from a Sikh religious leader are under strict quarantine in northern India after the man died of COVID-19.

The 70-year-old preacher, Baldev Singh, had returned from a trip to Europe's virus epicentre Italy and Germany before he went preaching in more than a dozen villages in Punjab state.

Bad luck if true, I guess. But politically correct for the current administration, as the case is about a sikh, not a hindu.

I can answer the ‘when’ but the ‘how’ is beyond my knowledge. Personally I’m just trying to push the narrative here and elsewhere to get people thinking about this.

Individual governments understand their capabilities better than me. They will, and do, respond to public pressure though. That’s our collective job.

Each developed country has most definitely not gone the same way. The reason the virus has had a minimal impact in both China, Singapore, Hong Kong and South Korea is because they’ve had plenty of experience dealing with this kind of thing before - as a few other Asian countries have too. Only Germany listened and prepared testing, hence the low number of cases.

Relaxing too soon is certainly a problem. What they will mean (the experts in the field) is easing off every 2-3 weeks and assessing the situation once they see the effect of the measures taken.

For a more visual understanding of how the models can play out I HIGHLY recommend watching this:

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=gxAaO2rsdIs

It’s not modeling this actual virus but gives a tangible appreciation of both the random nature of this and the effects of different possible measures - although represented in an abstract way.

India is taking drastic steps because they simply can’t do anything when it comes to medical aid for its citizens. There option is basically do nothing OR lockdown before it overwhelms them. Ironically what has happened it Italy may have helped.

At least 15,000 people who may have caught the new coronavirus from a Sikh religious leader are under strict quarantine in northern India after the man died of COVID-19.

The 70-year-old preacher, Baldev Singh, had returned from a trip to Europe's virus epicentre Italy and Germany before he went preaching in more than a dozen villages in Punjab state.

Bad luck if true, I guess. But politically correct for the current administration, as the case is about a sikh, not a hindu. — ssu

:sad:

The FDA just approved hydroxychloroquine for emergency care of infected patients at Trump's insistence. We'll see if he's right. It'll be sumpin if he is.

We'll see if he's right. It'll be sumpin if he is. — Hanover

The hope you have lived by for the last four years.

Perhaps finally Mexicans will build that wall and we Trump-doubters have all been wrong:

Mexican protesters have shut a US southern border crossing amid fears that untested American travellers will spread coronavirus.

Residents in Sonora, south of the US state of Arizona, have promised to block traffic into Mexico for a second day after closing a checkpoint for hours on Wednesday.

They wore face masks and held signs telling Americans to "stay at home".

See Coronavirus: Mexicans demand crackdown on Americans crossing the border

It'll be pure luck with about 27% chance of him being right.

There was in vitro effect for both drugs on SARS but that was ultimately too low to pursue it as a drug against SARS in 2012. There has not been controlled phase 1 testing for this purpose. Some anecdotal evidence for it but here's some that shows no difference with the control group: http://subject.med.wanfangdata.com.cn/UpLoad/Files/202003/43f8625d4dc74e42bbcf24795de1c77c.pdf

So at this point, we really don't know, which is why approving it is not a fact-based decision. I suspect lobbying: https://www.propublica.org/article/republican-billionaire-group-pushes-unproven-covid-19-treatment-trump-promoted

Both drugs have severe interaction with a long list of drugs and especially in the case of chloroquine severe side effects, including organ failure.

Manufacturers are talking about a new kind of breathing device in the UK, called CPAP. Mercedes formula one team, are beginning manufacture. It provides pressurised oxygen, keeping the lungs inflated and aiding breathing. Also it does not need the patients to be sedated. It can be manufactured quickly and in volume.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52087002

The FDA just approved hydroxychloroquine for emergency care of infected patients at Trump's insistence. — Hanover

Well, that's reassuring. Trump manning the oars at FDC, no worries now, mate!

the CPAP was developed in 1980.

New for this response, I expect.

“Let’s see how it works,” Trump said in his daily briefing Sunday. “It may, it may not.”

Fine, but let's use Boris Johnson as the guinea pig then rather than people who are worth caring about.

The FDA just approved hydroxychloroquine for emergency care of infected patients at Trump's insistence. We'll see if he's right. It'll be sumpin if he is. — Hanover

We'll all stand in line to give him head (figuratively).

Sounds somewhat in line with what Fauci has estimated.Well, you'll see how correct the model is in a few weeks. — ssu

Yep. It's supposed to be an optimistic prediction because it depends on social distancing.

Fine, but let's use Boris Johnson as the guinea pig then rather than people who are worth caring about. — Baden

The problem with wishing death upon your opponents is that it creates future credibility problems when you attempt to claim you've objectively rejected some of their positions.

For example, let's say you wish upon Joey a diminished lung capacity, so much so that he begins to suffocate, and then you further hope he reaches such a desperate state that he attempts a medication that then kills him slowly and miserably. Let's then say that despite your best wishes for his failure and death, he survives and advocates for lower taxation. You then take a stand against his position and claim that your position is well reasoned, which maybe it will be, yet there might be some detractors who will understandably suggest that your position is simply one of being contrary to Joey, so much so that you actually wished and continue to wish he'd die.

I'm just saying I might not take your future criticisms of Boris Johnson seriously because the statement "Oh yeah, I hate the fucker, wish he'd die, and he's not worth a piece of shit, but I actually find him well reasoned" is not a common sort of way people talk. Yep, your credibility is forever ruined. Totally hate it for you.

It'll be pure luck with about 27% chance of him being right. — Benkei

I'm not sure where the 27% came from, but let's assume it valid. If we can screen the patients and only provide it to those who will likely not have negative reactions, why wouldn't we give it to them? I don't see where there's much to lose, and what you're suggesting is that there is a 27% chance we might be sitting on a cure. Can you really wait for controlled testing so that you can tell everyone a year later after they're through burying their loved ones that it would have worked had we just used it, but we didn't want to get ahead of ourselves?

For medicines that it makes sense to go to phase 1 testing (of 3 phases), about 27% end up in phase 2. Good to know you don't read my replies to you, because I already told you this before.

But yes, there's a reason we wait for controlled testing. One of the more famous episodes before controlled testing was mercury treatment for syphilis. That was absolutely wonderful and killed more people than it cured them of syphilis.

I'm all for moving into concrete testing on a larger scale, controlled phase 1 testing, and giving it to people who are on the brink but it shouldn't be prescribed widely until it's gone through and successfully completed phase 3 testing. It needs to be clear however that it's testing.