A) if the difference falls within the margin of error, then it's not really sensible to build any theories around it.

B) see my previous post.

why have Democrats (so far) voted for the candidate with dementia rather than the one who has neither dementia nor craziness? — Relativist

Common misconceptions.

Bernie Sanders needs to clearly enumerate and demarcate the fact that Biden and Trump have both played key roles, in different circumstances mind you - but key roles nonetheless - in causing unacceptable, unnecessary, and quantifiable harm to average everyday Americans.

For different reasons, to different ends, both are guilty of having done so. Where was/is Bernie on those matters?

Obama did what he did to help some poor people be able to have the medical treatments and preventative care that every American ought be entitled to, simply by virtue of being an American. He did what he could. I'm being more than fair here.

He also got thrown into a pre-fueled fire and as a result bailed out the banks so that the economy did not finish collapsing in on itself, as a direct result of far too much trust being placed into something that is just not trustworthy, reliable, and/or strong enough to be used as a pillar...

Obviously.

Good pillars... effective pillars... do not collapse in on themselves by virtue of their own doing.

Funny enough, those who weakened the pillars knowingly did not feel the weight of the economic collapse. I did not have negative effects/affects upon them. To quite the contrary, the collapse worked directly to their own financial benefit.

They profited directly from the swathe of victims directly effected/affected by a public disservice. This happened during the initial implementation of certain financial instruments, by mortgage brokers, real estate agents and underwriter by making people feel safe about a loan that they could not afford according to the actual terms in the agreement.

Making someone feel safe about a loan that they cannot afford as it is written is a tremendous disservice to that person and anyone else who feels the aftermath. Those in charge of that part of the service knew that this was the case.

So, brokers sold them to others who then gathered them all under one umbrella... each cleverly disguised as safe low risk investments, and they then sold them to yet even more unsuspecting consumers... again. This time the fraud took the form of a low risk safe means to invest for retirement.

Here again, the public disservice providers profited immediately.

Hot potato with some who quite simply could not feel the heat.

Some of those reaping huge financial rewards from the crash of '08 also weakened the economic pillars of American society by design. Others played a role in effectively implementing the design. Some knew. Others may not have. None of them personally felt the weight of the collapse that they themselves played a key role in causing. None of them could be held legally responsible.

Public disservice does not even begin to appropriately describe this situation.

Look at the public record of their opinions on important matters... the actions that resulted in disaster for working class Americans, without good enough reason for doing so. These are the sorts of considerations that will show a proven track record of being on the right side of history... or not.

Bernie Sanders needs to clearly enumerate and demarcate the fact that Biden and Trump have both played key roles, in different circumstances mind you - but key roles nonetheless - in causing unacceptable, unnecessary, and quantifiable harm to average everyday Americans. — creativesoul

If Bernie does that, who will this convince to vote for him? Might this not actually repel as many from voting for him? e.g. why would a moderate independent vote for him? It's a crap shoot - there's no way to know how those opposing factors will add up.

You made an eloquent case for voting against both Biden and Trump. Does that also mean that there's no relevant difference between Trump and Biden.? My opinion is that 4 more years of Trump is the worst possible outcome. Consequently, I want the guy most likely to beat him. Full disclosure: I'm skeptical that Bernie would actually make any significant changes. Congress will not vote for Medicare for all and they will not make college free. One could realistically expect some incremental changes, but only if Dems control both houses. Similar incremental change would occur with any Dem as President along with both houses. Consequently, I forsee no big benefit to Bernie over Biden, and that's why I am more concerned with electibility.

that's why I am more concerned with electibility. — Relativist

So you consider a weak, obviously mentally impaired, candidate who will be mauled in the debates against Trump to be more electable than one of the best speakers around who could fight him on his own populist ground? Yes, the name "Biden" is more electable in theory, but this is what you're putting up. And it's only going to get worse.



So, @Artemis is bang on. The electability argument is going to look very foolish come November.

So you consider a weak, obviously mentally impaired, candidate who will be mauled in the debates against Trump to be more electable than one of the best speakers around who could fight him on his own populist ground? — Baden

If Sanders is one of the best speakers around, and that makes a meaningful difference in terms of votes why hasn't Bernie run away with votes in the primaries?

If the appearance of mental impairment puts people off from voting for him, why has Biden done so well in the primaries?

If Sanders is one of the best speakers around, and that makes a meaningful difference in terms of votes why hasn't Bernie run away with votes in the primaries? — Relativist

One last time: because people think other people are going to vote for him.

Yes, been through this.

A prelude to the entire election campaign. Just imagine the ads.

That is a snowballing effect, but at the core of that snowball is that there are good reasons to believe Biden is more electable: as a moderate, he is more likely to bring in independents and never-Trumpers. Polling in swing-states consistently showed he had the bigger edge over Trump. By contrast, Bernie strikes fear in moderates and independents - this can drive up opposition voting.

So make the case for Bernie- show why we should consider him more electable. No need to tell me how much you like him, or why. Explain the broad appeal you think he has. As I said before, the only rationale anyone has given me so far is that he'll bring out the vote, but if that's the case, why wasn't there greater turnout from his key demographic- young voters?

but at the core of that snowball is that there are good reasons to believe Biden is more electable: as a moderate, he is more likely to bring in independents and never-Trumpers. Polling in swing-states consistently showed he had the bigger edge over Trump. By contrast, Bernie strikes fear in moderates and independents - this can drive up opposition voting. — Relativist

Just because they sound like they could be true, doesn't mean they are. As the polling against Trump shows....

Explain the broad appeal you think he has. — Relativist

He's the most popular senator in America.
https://politicalwire.com/2020/01/16/sanders-is-most-popular-senator/

His policies are also the ones that most Americans support. Again, the argument most democrats, moderates, and independents tout against him or his policies is that they don't think the rest of America wants them--leading right back to my Emperor theory--so they think they can't be done as much as they personally are in favor of them.

So, Artemis is bang on. The electability argument is going to look very foolish come November. — Baden

A lot can happen.

Yet I think what really will play for the Presidential candidate of the DNC is the oncoming coronavirus-recession.

Absolutely. It's all very relative to the economic context.

ust because they sound like they could be true, doesn't mean they are. — Artemis

Of course, but it makes it a reasonable belief. I'm awaiting reasons to believe it false. This isn't one:

He's the most popular senator in America.
https://politicalwire.com/2020/01/16/sanders-is-most-popular-senator/ — Artemis

The metric cited is popularity with his constituents. Sure, he's a shoe-in to win Vermont. This has no bearing on whether he can win Florida or Michigan.

His policies are also the ones that most Americans support. — Artemis

Will you vote for Trump if Biden is the nominee?
My guess is that everyone who supports Medicare-for-All is going to vote Democrat, no matter who is the candidate.

If Sanders is one of the best speakers around, and that makes a meaningful difference in terms of votes why hasn't Bernie run away with votes in the primaries? — Relativist

Because voters have been convinced that he can't win and isn't "electable." They want to beat Trump and want to put up the best chance of that, even if it's someone they don't necessarily agree with or are particularly enthusiastic about. The media and the DNC made a last-ditch effort to run with Biden's ONE victory in South Carolina, and it paid off -- to even their surprise.

So they stopped Bernie again. Good for them. All that proves is that they're sleazier than the RNC (or more effective?). Rather than get behind a "socialist", they'd prefer a milquetoast, uninspiring, cognitively declining bore.

I don't even blame the "moderate" voters or the black voters for this, because when all the experts, thought leaders, party leaders, and media pundits are saying the same thing -- it's hard to believe Sanders is the correct choice. Despite the fact that he has been and continues to do well against Trump and in key swing states in polling.

Polls show democratic voters are more in line with Sanders' policies. National polls show Sanders' ideas have majorities. He had the enthusiasm and the younger voters. He had won several states and was polling well in the others, and there was a Hail Mary that connected. That's what happened, in my view.

Will you vote for Trump if Biden is the nominee?
My guess is that everyone who supports Medicare-for-All is going to vote Democrat, no matter who is the candidate. — Relativist

Ohhhhh boy. I'm just gonna refer you right back to my original post in which I showed that Biden and Bernie are TIED as to who will vote for them over Trump.

I'm sorry, but it really seems like you just don't want to understand what several people (so, phew, it's not just me!) here have been telling you.

Because voters have been convinced that he can't win and isn't "electable." — Xtrix

I am one of them, and I see good reasons to think it's true, and haven't seen good reasons to think otherwise. Got any?

Because voters have been convinced that he can't win and isn't "electable."
— Xtrix
I am one of them, and I see good reasons to think it's true, and haven't seen good reasons to think otherwise. Got any? — Relativist

Yes, the ones I mentioned. Based on the only evidence we have -- not pundit speculation and "gut feelings" -- is polling, when it comes to "electability." That's the hard data. What does it say? Take a look for yourself -- I mentioned some of them: he leads Trump in a heads-up matchup, including in key swing states. Biden in many cases does as well, sometimes more sometimes less, but that's beside the point.

Bernie also has a more enthusiastic base, the younger vote (by far), and majority-supported positions. The Democratic party agree more with Bernie on his proposals. Etc.

We can discuss details as well -- the moderates, African americans, and the elderly have come out more for Biden, for example. But this would all be missing my point: the argument about "electability." There was no reason for this fear three weeks ago, there's no reason for it now.

In fact, in terms of "gut feelings" -- I would argue there's much more reason to think Biden looks far weaker against Trump, and that we're repeating 2016 once again. We'll see it on full display on Sunday's debate, too.

Ohhhhh boy. I'm just gonna refer you right back to my original post in which I showed that Biden and Bernie are TIED as to who will vote for them over Trump.

I'm sorry, but it really seems like you just don't want to understand what several people (so, phew, it's not just me!) here have been telling you. — Artemis

By "original post" are you referring to the one where you referenced the Newsweek article? It doesn't address the topic of who has a better chance betwee Biden and Bernie. Sure, Biden has vulnerabilities. It's an exaggeration to claim he has dementia, so if want to make a case you should avoid hyperbole. Bernie has liabilities too, and I've seen no acknowledgment. His liabilities are the polarizing nature of his policies. I wonder if you simply don't want to believe that, because of your passion for his policies. Bernie's policies turn more people off than does Biden's. Either of them can get the strong anti-Trump vote, so I calculate a net loss for Bernie.

Here's the ultimate test for Bernie supporters: will you vote for Trump if Biden is the nominee? If no, then what makes you so sure others will do exactly that?

Here's the ultimate test for Bernie supporters: will vote for Trump if Biden is the nominee? If no, then what makes you so sure others will do exactly that? — Relativist

The thought of a career corporate sycophant getting elected over the only candidate with wide spread grass-root support is repulsive, and the notion of a "fuck you" Trump vote does cross my mind...

Some say that Hillary's gender caused reduced voter turnout, but in my own political calculus it was her corporate status quo grubbing lack of moral and ideological scruples that made the prospect so repulsive (i.e: she is so out of touch with regular people she couldn't even pander correctly).

Biden is more of the same, just less intelligent. And isn't that exactly what establishment sponsors would like? A weak panderer who wins hearts and minds while happily making contradictory promises to corporate donors in wine cellars? Why not elect an actual house-cat who signs all documents and looks cute in holiday photos?

Yes, there will be fuck you Trump votes from Bernie supporters by the thousands if Biden wins the nomination. I would prefer Bernie say fuck it and run independently just to finally destroy the present incarnation of the "Democratic" party. If had a vote, it would be for a third party candidate. Some would call this a vote splitting betrayal, but the two party system (specifically their incorrigibly self-serving behavior) has created a lose lose situation.

So much to unpack here... IF I felt like going back in circles again... Which I don't.

Cast your vote here.

We'll see how people vote in my poll. But for now, I'll summarize my position, and the counters that I've seen.

Here's why I think Biden has a better chance to beat Trump than does Sanders:
1) The vast majority of Bernie supporters will vote for Biden, so few of those votes will be lost (I'm testing this with the poll I posted).
2) Biden's moderate policies will attract more anti-Trump independents and Republicans
3) Sanders policies will scare Republicans, and Republican-leaning independents - increasing their turnout (I'm not criticizing the policies, just noting that this backlash should be expected);
4) The enthusiasm of Bernie's base was expected to drive high turnout, but this was didn't happen in the primaries, so there's no reason to think it will occur in the general.
5) This is possible, but not certain: Biden is very popular with black voters, and therefore they may turn out in greater numbers if he's the nominee. Expect Obama to help a lot.

Here's the counters I've received:
1) Biden has dementia, and people will prefer a crazy man to one with dementia
2) Bernie is very popular in Vermont (he's tops in the Senate for popularity among constituents).
3) Most people want medicare for all
4) Bernie's unique qualities (not status quo, real solutions, not half measures) will attract votes.
5) Biden has liabilities that will be exploited by Trump (e.g. dementia; his record).

Let me know if I left anything out.

I thought it was for American registered voters only?

Let me know if I left anything out. — Relativist

Well, since you asked...

You left out all of the most important stuff. Which candidate actually has a good grasp upon the root problems(actual legislation over the last fifty or so years) that have caused so so many poor Americans to become disillusioned with government altogether?

Not Trump. Not Biden.

Bernie.

Which candidate was on the right side of history in the moment?

Not Trump. Not biden.

Bernie.

Which candidate acknowledges these problems and is willing to do everything it takes to get them corrected... even if it is a long road?

Not Trump. Not Biden.

Bernie.

Which candidate can explain these problems and their solutions to everyday Americans in clear and understandable terms?

Not Trump. Not Biden.

Bernie.

Etc. Etc. Etc.

3) Sanders policies will scare Republicans, and Republican-leaning independents - increasing their turnout (I'm not criticizing the policies, just noting that this backlash should be expected); — Relativist

Oh, Jesus fucking Christ...

So, your argument is that because doing the right things will scare too many Republicans who do not want to do the right things, that we ought not do the right things...

WTF???

Common misconceptions are what's stopping Bernie Sanders and his message from being understood for what it is...

Six huge conglomerates own the media... all of it. All of them would have lower profit margins if Bernie is elected. None of them want him elected.

They do not care which person gets elected, as long as they continue acting in the best interest of huge multinational corporations as both sides of the American political aisle have been doing for fifty years.

The concerted attack against Bernie is nothing but rhetorical drivel and propaganda. A spread of mis and disinformation. A fraud being perpetuated against the American people.

Bernie could clear the air... if there were enough people watching all at the same time and he was allowed to speak about the aforementioned problems.

Bernie Sanders needs to clearly enumerate and demarcate the fact that Biden and Trump have both played key roles, in different circumstances mind you - but key roles nonetheless - in causing unacceptable, unnecessary, and quantifiable harm to average everyday Americans.
— creativesoul
If Bernie does that, who will this convince to vote for him? — Relativist

Anyone and everyone who wants to know what has actually been going on in the American government for the last fifty years that has caused the quality of everyday average American lives to plummet the way that it has.

Do you want someone like Trump who has no concern whatsoever beyond his own image and wealth? Do you want someone like Biden who does not have a clue how to fix all the problems facing the people he has convinced to vote for him? Not a clue.

Clueless Joe.

Neither of them have a clue, or if they do, they keep it a secret. They certainly do not put it into words, and offer real solutions...

Well, since you asked...

You left out all of the most important stuff.
...Which candidate actually has a good grasp upon the root problems(actual legislation over the last fifty or so years) that have caused so so many poor Americans to become disillusioned with government altogether?

...Which candidate was on the right side of history in the moment?

...Which candidate acknowledges these problems and is willing to do everything it takes to get them corrected... even if it is a long road?
.
...Which candidate can explain these problems and their solutions to everyday Americans in clear and understandable terms? — creativesoul

You're giving a list of the things Bernie supporters love about Bernie. It seems to me that you think these things are so wonderful, that surely many people will see it as you do and vote for him. I'm not saying they AREN'T wonderful, but what evidence is there that those items will bring in votes that Biden won't get?