I believe it's weighted by population

I'm surprised by how poorly Biden is do, given all the polling. Not even third place (so far). I hope that's a little "fuck you" to the DNC and the media.

FiveThirtyEight predicts that the fuckup of Iowa (or a hypothetical election where Iowa didn't happen) actually boosts Biden's chances:

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/iowa-might-have-screwed-up-the-whole-nomination-process/

I hope that's a little "fuck you" to the DNC and the media. — Xtrix

One can dream :grin:

FiveThirtyEight predicts that the fuckup of Iowa (or a hypothetical election where Iowa didn't happen) actually boosts Biden's chances:

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/iowa-might-have-screwed-up-the-whole-nomination-process/ — Pfhorrest

Or not :groan:

I don't think so. Once the full results come in, it'll get out there how poorly he did. The media may downplay it. The fuck-up only helps Biden for a couple of days tops, in my view.

Does anyone know when they next plan to release the rest of the results?

The rationale Nate Silver gave in that article I linked earlier is that it was already expected that Biden wouldn't have great results in Iowa and that whoever else came out on top would get a big boost in their odds, because Iowa is mostly important just for being first and the surrounding media frenzy, not the actual number of delegates represented there. That's already dampened by the effects of being in the midst of the impeachment trial, the Superbowl, and the State of the Union address this year, and then the delay in releasing the results stole the spotlight of what media coverage Iowa did actually get, so the media boost that would have been gotten by the winner (who was not expected to be Biden) has been dampened, lessening their odds against Biden nationwide.

I'm surprised by how poorly Biden is doing, given all the polling — Xtrix

I think all the Burisma business has damaged him quite a bit. Bloomberg might rescue the DP.

Bloomberg might "rescue" them? No thanks. I'll stick with Bernie -- he's actually saving the party, despite the propaganda.

I don't know who was saying Biden wouldn't do well in Iowa. Look at the polls -- he was either leading or in second place for most of them. Looks like he'll finish 4th or so. Regardless of how it plays, that alone tells you something.

Nate Silver's model expected Biden to do poorly in Iowa, but well nationally, like the polls. Iowa is relatively small as far as the number of delegates go, and only really important for its media impact.

Nate Silver's model expected Biden to do poorly in Iowa, but well nationally, like the polls. — Pfhorrest

I'll say it again: the Iowa polls showed Biden doing well.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/ia/iowa_democratic_presidential_caucus-6731.html

Do you see the difference between what I actually said and your report of that?

Yes, as I just mentioned. So you WEREN'T saying the phrase was taken from Warren? Just that it was a favorite phrase of hers. Fine. I was giving you the benefit of the doubt, assuming it was at all relevant to the discussion. Who cares what Warren said? What does it have to do with Trump?

Either clarify what you meant or move on. I'm bored.

Ted Cruz won the Iowa caucuses in 2016.

Iowa doesn't mean what it used to.

Spot on.

The Bernie lovers here haven't said a word about Buttigieg. (At least haven't noticed)

Telling.

I mentioned him. Looks like he'll win. Good for him. Seems like a decent guy and campaigned hard. It was very close and not all the results are in but if he wins he wins.

You misinterpret this how?

As a Bernie fan, what's to say about Buttigieg? He's still better than Biden, and it was really close between him and Bernie, and this is just one state not the whole election, so I'm pretty happy with the Iowa results. Of course I would have preferred if Bernie had narrowly won instead of narrowly lost, but there's a lot more states to come, and next up is New Hampshire, where he's almost a shoe-in.

The Bernie lovers here haven't said a word about Buttigieg. (At least haven't noticed)

Telling. — ssu

What are we supposed to say when up until tonight the results were either completely up in the air or still 40% unavailable? What is telling about it? Iowa only sends 49 delegates to the DNC. The value of Iowa for candidates isn't in the actual number of delegates a candidate can obtain but in the media narrative constructed around who is actually a viable candidate vs. who is non-viable, beyond the abstraction of simple polling.

Currently, at 92% precincts reporting in, Sanders leads the raw vote by about 1,200 and shares the same pledged delegate count, 11, with Buttigieg. Buttigieg had a better than anticipated turnout for sure, but he's far less of a viable candidate in upcoming states and doesn't have a very clear path forward given that he's polling single digits in nearly all of the next six states to vote.

Biggest story is the collapse of Biden, who came in a distant 4th, and was viewed as the biggest obstacle in Sander's path of victory. He will most likely not get a single delegate! Not a big fan of Nate Silver's political polling, but their latest odds model reflects Biden's poor performance as a huge positive for Sanders.

EDIT: Now 96% precincts reporting in, Sanders leads Buttigieg with 1,500 raw votes, 300 up from previous. No change in delegate count :roll:

Lol I think Bernie is about to win it

The Bernie lovers here haven't said a word about Buttigieg. (At least haven't noticed)

Telling. — ssu

Telling?

Nah.

Pretentiousness looms large.

Not all Sanders supporters fit your notion of "Bernie lovers".

Gross overgeneralization looms large.

The mayor's uptick is but a moment in time. What's to say?

Not all Sanders supporters fit your notion of "Bernie lovers". — creativesoul

I haven't given a definition of Bernie Lovers!!! :yikes:

Bernie supporters closely resemble the past supporters of Ron Paul on the Republican side: they are highly excited about their candidate, they are usually young and follow issues. They are thinkers. And they believe (with obvious reasons) that the party machinery is against their candidate.

I just wanted to hear what people think of Buttigieg as there hadn't been many mentions.

But anyway, from his speech (the one that Pelosi ripped) I think Trump is starting to prepare for a Sanders/Warren or similar vote: a lot of red paint is readied for use. And knowing Trump, it is going to be extremely ugly and the voters can be even more divided in the end than in 2016.

Yes, it's true, Iowa doesn't portray how things are going to go, and if Buttigieg has concentrated his efforts on Iowa, then he can punch above his weight-line. With New Hampshire the lines are more firmly drawn...and this case likely for a close race.

I just wanted to hear what people think of Buttigieg as there hadn't been many mentions — ssu

Uh, no. You said it was "telling", in light of his performance in Iowa. You didn't just want our 2 cents on him. What was "telling" about not mentioning him?

Telling that you are very excited about Bernie and concentrate on his campaign.

And of course from the political viewpoint, Buttigieg, Yang, Bloomberg or Biden etc. aren't so interesting.

Telling that you are very excited about Bernie and concentrate on his campaign — ssu

What's telling about it, I'm an outspoken socialist

I look forward to seeing the Democrats lose to Trump again despite winning the popular vote by an even larger margin.

What's telling about it, I'm an outspoken socialist — Maw

He's accusing you of homophobia.

well, I think the political situation in the US is completely f***ed. The leading opposition candidate is a Democratic socialist, America's counterpart to Corbyn, and bound for the same result if he is selected. Trump, meanwhile, was not impeached, but crowned as Caesar, and will use every legal and illegal means to win. Not that it's going to take a lot, as the Democrats do a Thelma and Louise.

Result: I am going to stop following American politics. Cancelling my WaPo sub, turn my attention to other subjects. America is truly going to hell in a handbasket, and there's nothing my commenting on it is going to achieve.

The leading opposition candidate is a Democratic socialist, America's counterpart to Corbyn, and bound for the same result if he is selected — Wayfarer

Bernie getting the nomination is the only hope the Democrats ever really had for beating Trump. Winning elections is not about convincing people to change their minds -- that almost never works -- but about exciting people enough to actually go out and vote. The left half of America have been sorely disappointed with the Democratic party for a long time, and Bernie's loss in 2016 encouraged a bunch of them to vote 3rd party (which is fine in some cases, problematic in others), stay home, or worse, "burn it all down" and vote Trump in protest (which... what, I don't fucking understand that). Mainstream party-line Democrats will still vote for Bernie anyway, mainstream Republicans won't no matter what, there are apparently those wtf voters who prefer Bernie over Trump but Trump over anyone else, and most importantly, the many discouraged progressive youths will actually get excited enough to show up on election day.

Trump, meanwhile, was not impeached — Wayfarer

He was. The impeachment is what sent him to trial. He was just acquitted in the trial.