• Pfhorrest
    3.6k
    in essence the demand is a Conservative one: equality before the lawBenkei

    Whether or not something is conservative depends on when and where you're talking about.

    Equality before the law has only been a conservative value in times and places that it was juxtaposed with e.g. affirmative action: new forms of inequality meant to benefit previously disadvantaged people.

    Pre-existing inequality before the law that benefited the people already in power has always been something conservatives have supported.

    By definition, they're in favor of the status quo and those whom it benefits; changes away from the status quo to benefit others is definitionally progressive.

    The same is true of e.g. states' rights, where when that's a state's right to keep things the same and entrench existing power structures, conservatives are in favor of that, but as soon as it's states' rights to do new things that disrupt those power structures, conservatives are all in favor of federal intervention to stop it.
  • Ansiktsburk
    86
    By definition, they're in favor of the status quo and those whom it benefits; changes away from the status quo to benefit others is definitionally progressive.

    The same is true of e.g. states' rights, where when that's a state's right to keep things the same and entrench existing power structures, conservatives are in favor of that, but as soon as it's states' rights to do new things that disrupt those power structures, conservatives are all in favor of federal intervention to stop it.
    Pfhorrest

    Thats depends on how you define ”conservative”. In a version of conservatism I highly adept to, probably called Structure Conservatism in English, the status As Is is appreciated. Changes are appreciated but introduced slowly and carefully. This naturally requires that the current state is generally accepted. I can say that Sweden, my home country had a development like that from say 1920 up til 2010 after which globalization issues with a very large immigration and unstable job market has caused a very unstable poltical landscape and a lot of frictions.

    In a more traditional conception of Conservatism, that, say, USA 1958 is what was end of history, conservatives would not mind revolutions to quickly reinstall that preferred state
  • ssu
    3.5k
    I can say that Sweden, my home country had a development like that from say 1920 up til 2010 after which globalization issues with a very large immigration and unstable job market has caused a very unstable poltical landscape and a lot of frictions.Ansiktsburk
    So... nothing dramatic happened until 2010???

    Even if off the topic, I'd argue that a lot has happened in Sweden before that. Perhaps starting from the huge influx of Finns, half a million, coming over in the late 60's and early 70's to your country. Half a million is still a large number. We tend to overemphasize the changes of the present.

    Moving to Sweden for jobs and better wages!
    1426854039_original_ruotsinsuomalainen_perhe_goteborg_1967_sanomaarkisto.jpg

    In the US context it should also be noted that the country has seen turmoil also... and well after it's civil war.
  • jorndoe
    1.1k
    FiveThirtyEight's 2020 Election Forecast seems to suggest Biden.
    I'm not sure how good those models-simulations are, though.
  • Hippyhead
    899
    Well, I thought Biden handled last night's debate pretty well. No big fumbles anyway, so barring an alien invasion, it's on to the victory party, I desperately hope.

    But I did something evil last night. Like everyone else, I've been getting a ton of political calls and texts. Somebody had texted me about 100 times to ask me if I would be voting Dem. Fed up, I finally texted back and said...

    "Yes, I'll be voting Dem. Unless you keep calling."

    Upon which they immediately texted me back.

    So I replied, "Will now not vote for the particular Dem you are working for."

    But, that's a scam, fake news, as I'd already voted. Shhh, don't tell!

    The phone went quiet for about 20 minutes.

    Then they texted me YET AGAIN to apologize and plead for me to reconsider, more propaganda etc.

    Sigh....

    So I've launched a new campaign! Vote Hippiehead for Secretary Of Impatient Assholeness!!! Please add your number to this thread so I can text you 4,000 times.
  • 180 Proof
    2.1k
    I love the smell of A BLOW-OUT in the morning. :smirk:

    As Florida, Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, or ... goes for Biden, so goes the election. Like the 1980 referendum, not the 2016 choice. We'll know by 10ish EST tonight. :party:

    :victory: :mask:

    https://www.nationaljournal.com/s/711037?unlock=SRT6SBVCJHPBFJTS — Charlie Cook, National Journal 10/29/20
  • Mr Bee
    365
    My eye is more on Texas. The early turnout data has been insane there, surpassing the 2016 numbers already and nearly all being concentrated on the blue counties or trending blue counties.
  • ssu
    3.5k
    The early turnout data has been insane there, surpassing the 2016 numbers already and nearly all being concentrated on the blue counties or trending blue counties.Mr Bee
    Perhaps people don't want to stand in line for hours during a pandemic.

    But the real question is how many states can get through the mail in votes.

    I'll hope everything goes well. And the election doesn't turn into "the 2020 election dumpster fire / fiasco".
  • The Opposite
    647
    The road ends here
  • Mr Bee
    365
    Perhaps people don't want to stand in line for hours during a pandemic.ssu

    About 30% of them clearly don't apparently. Though ironically enough with the early in person voting and Texas limiting mail ballot drop offs to one location per county, people inevitably have to anyways.

    Speaking of, the fact that Governor Abbott had to take such a move along with Texas Republicans fighting to throw out 100K curbside votes in Harris county should indicate that they're worried about the state flipping. It may not but the fact that it's a toss-up seems to have alot of people excited.
  • 180 Proof
    2.1k
    Me too, but I left Texas out on purpose because I'm trying not work myself up into a frenzy this early in the day. Kids in cages with many permanently separated from their parents, massive COVID-19 outbreaks in Rio Grande counties, roaming armed Trump caravans road-raging, still-open wounds of 2019 El Paso racist mass shooting, various official voter suppression bs, yet historic early vote turnout, etc - oh yeah Texas is primed for flipping tonight.
  • Benkei
    3.8k
    Is Texas a swing state this year?Benkei

    Almost, should be, but not quite there yet.180 Proof

    Definitely a swing state now. :up:
  • Pfhorrest
    3.6k
    I think the Georgia senatorial election is probably actually the most important one this year, as the real big bad of recent politics has been Mitch McTurtleFace far more than Trump, and Georgia is the only state with close odds on its senate race that might flip from red to blue, losing the Republicans their senate majority and finally stripping Mitch of his long-abused power.
  • Benkei
    3.8k
    One can hope. But too early to tell so I'm preparing to eat turd sandwiches for the next 4 years.
  • magritte
    136
    A possible scenario could be tRump loses, sues in swing states, drags suits out till January, then leaves quietly in exchange for not getting prosecuted for high treason and other federal crimes.
  • Benkei
    3.8k
    Too much forward planning for Trump.
  • The Opposite
    647
    Which thread will be used for running commentary? This one or the trump one?
  • darthbarracuda
    3.1k
    Texas is gonna be a shitshow
  • The Opposite
    647
    Why does Florida have so many electoral votes?
  • Pfhorrest
    3.6k
    Large population, like any state with a lot of them.
  • creativesoul
    9.1k
    Eerie silence...

    :mask:
  • Baden
    11k
    None of the close counts mean anything until you know the percentage of mail-ins and whether they are being counted first or last. The coverage is piss poor for not concentrating more on this.
  • Pfhorrest
    3.6k
    In Georgia, for instance, which will probably decide control of the senate, the Republican is currently beating the Democrat by a reasonably small margin, but there are about as many votes remaining to be counted as any of the candidates already have... and those are all the mail-in ballots, as they weren't allowed to start counting them until the polls closed. Mail-in ballots skew Democratic, so it's very likely there will be a blue shift as the count continues.
  • Baden
    11k


    Mail-ins not only skew Dem, they skew 2:1 or more which is huge. There's a red mirage in states like Pennsylvania and Wisconsin which will clear over the next few days.
  • Hanover
    5.9k
    Mail-ins not only skew Dem, they skew 2:1 or more which is huge. There's a red mirage in states like Pennsylvania and Wisconsin which will clear over the next few days.Baden

    Objectively speaking here, I'd choose to be Trump based upon what the numbers show. If you're Biden right now, you ain't got em where you want em.
  • Baden
    11k


    I trust my math over yours, pumpkin.
  • Hanover
    5.9k
    I trust my math over yours, pumpkin.Baden

    Trump leads in every important state. They've not been called yet, so they're still unknown, but Trump is leading by a couple of runs in the 8th as far as I can see.

    Baseball analogy. Look it up punkin.
  • Benkei
    3.8k
    He's certainly doing better again than many expected.
  • Baden
    11k


    1) Not so. He's losing badly in Arizona, for example.

    2) As you know, this election differs in that the majority of the vote in many battleground states was early and overwhelmingly Democrat. The significance of this contradicts your thesis that Trump is clearly in a better position or whatever you said about having the runs (in my county that's not a good thing).



    In Florida, yes. Elsewhere, not so much unless I'm mistaken about the late-counted vote. I stick by my prediction of a five point popular vote win for the Dems and Biden taking Pennsylvania by a couple of points, which along with Arizona, gives him a solid win.
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