Don’t know what others think but it seems to me Loeb has become somewhat obsessive in his quest, to the detriment of his overall reputation. Of course, if the titanium-alloy spherules turn out to be the real enchilada, then I’ll happily eat my words. — Wayfarer

This is another of those situations you've discussed before - a qualified and respected scientist makes what appears to be an extraordinary claim in an area where he has specific expertise and experience. And like in the case of the psychologist who wrote about possible instances of past lives, we are left struggling to figure out what to say. Obviously, first comes strong skepticism. Then comes the obligatory genuflection to the need for openmindedness. Then comes a resigned shrug. What do we do now?

Something similar is going on with the current rush of news about the US military's knowledge about UFOs. In a bold step, the government has changed their name from unidentified flying objects to unexplained anomalous phenomena (UAP).

Don’t know what others think but it seems to me Loeb has become somewhat obsessive in his quest, to the detriment of his overall reputation. Of course, if the titanium-alloy spherules turn out to be the real enchilada, then I’ll happily eat my words. — Wayfarer

I made a post earlier in this Illusion thread mentioning error in beliefs.

Avi Loeb is neither wrong nor right in his belief at this point. If he gathers more evidence of the existence of aliens and their technology, then at some point in our life, his hypothesis could be correct and his belief vindicated. But for now, he can't claim the truth or we can't claim the falsity of his belief.

I've been sporadically following Avi Loeb, even before all of this blew up, because he's an interesting scientist. (I've written him into my not-yet-finished sci fi novel under another name.) His Harvard homepage can be found here, and his Medium articles index here. What I noticed about his 'Ouamuamua coverage, which included a book, was his dogmatic insistence that this object must be an extraterrestrial artifact. That is what other scientists have taken him to task for. He seems to brook no disagreement, and has written polemical articles attacking critics for being narrow-minded and dogmatic.

Let's see. Of course, if he's correct, then it will be one of the greatest ever scientific discoveries.

What I noticed about his 'Ouamuamua coverage, which included a book, was his dogmatic insistence that this object must be an extraterrestrial artifact. That is what other scientists have taken him to task for. He seems to brook no disagreement, and has written polemical articles attacking critics for being narrow-minded and dogmatic. — Wayfarer

A cure for a dogmatic person is time.

Alien debris had reached the Earth, but the aliens themselves were nowhere to be seen? Unfortunately for him, he exhibits the same patterns as other alien flying object videos -- always grainy, unrecognizable, blurred, dark, and shaky camera.

:up:

Quote: He believes the tiny objects, about half a millimetre in size, are most likely made from a steel-titanium alloy that is much stronger than the iron found in regular meteors.

He believes? How about testing the spherules to determine exactly what they are made of?

this object must be an extraterrestrial artifact — Wayfarer

It is saying nothing surprising that this object speeding across the solar system and then heading back out is "extraterrestrial". How could it be otherwise? A "made object" of course would be a big deal; unfortunately we didn't get enough information about Oumaumua to make an intelligent guess (as far as I know).

Presumably, there is stuff zooming around 'out there' that was flung into motion by various entirely natural events -- things blowing up, things running into each other, smash ups, etc. The fragments will keep moving until some other object or force interrupts their travels.

Can learnéd men of science go off the deep end? Of course they can. Smart people are as capable of believing their own bullshit as anybody else is.

All that aside, I might wish it were true that we had found evidence of other highly intelligent beings. But so far, it always seems to take a lot of common sense bending to believe the "evidence presented so far".

It is saying nothing surprising that this object speeding across the solar system and then heading back out is "extraterrestrial". How could it be otherwise? — BC

Sorry my bad. From ‘outside the solar system’, I meant. Different class of object.

Smart people are as capable of believing their own bullshit as anybody else is. — BC

:up:

e.g. Newton was an alchemist, etc

Sometimes it's hard to put things just right. It came from outer space, right; but where we are is ALL outer space. Probably its source is in our own galaxy. Things whizzing by from other galaxies... hmmm, more disturbing.

Some people long for alien contact in the same way that some people (not necessarily believers) long for god. God made manifest or sentient beings from another star system materializing before our eyes would be approximately equally shattering.

Sometimes it's hard to put things just right. It came from outer space, right; but where we are is ALL outer space. — BC

Sorry, not 'extraterrestrial' but interstellar. That was the term I got wrong. The significance being that almost every meteor or space object known originates from inside the solar system (usually the Asteroid Belt.) 'Oumaumau was thought to be of interstellar origin because of the orbit - it looped around the Sun and then took off again out of the solar system. Remember Rendevouz with Rama? One of my all time favourite sci-fi stories. (Nothing to do with this graphic but I've always just liked it.)

No doubt.

Every time we think it's aliens, it's never aliens.

Rendezvous With Rama was mentioned in a news story about Oumaumau. Yes, great sci fi novel, and the sequels were (like many sequels are) not great but not that bad.

Every time we think it's aliens, it's never aliens. — RogueAI

DItto god/s. :razz:

One of my all time favourite sci-fi stories. — Wayfarer

I read dozens, hundreds of science fiction books and stories when I was a kid. Most of them have just mixed into the general science fiction memory sludge. "Foundation" and "Rendezvous with Rama", are two that really stand out even now.

A follow-up to this thread. The NY Times has published a very long piece on Avi Loeb, for which I provide here a gift link. It's a balanced piece, the journalist obviously spent a lot of time talking to Loeb and gives him a fair representation, but it's also upfront about his tendency to rub other scientists up the wrong way.

“You don’t leap to ‘it’s alien technology’ before you’ve exhausted everything thoroughly,” Meech (Karen Meech, an astronomer at the University of Hawaii and the lead author on the Oumuamua discovery study) said, “and I get the feeling that Avi’s so excited about his ideas that he picks out bits of the observations that fit and discounts the others that do not.” She continued, “That’s what we’re trying not to teach young students to do, because that’s not science.”

... His sense of being slighted, dismissed or overlooked bubbles up frequently and spontaneously. If you get him talking for more than an hour or so, invariably his mood turns dark, his eyes narrow and he starts listing resentments and perceived injuries.

.... Loeb says he doesn’t care what his critics say, but he spends far too much time complaining about them for that to be entirely true. It’s probably more accurate to say that he’s betting that if he’s right, any transgressions against scientific norms and protocols will be forgiven. That’s a sentiment that I heard in various forms even from some of Loeb’s harshest critics. They were tired of Loeb’s antics, his bullying, his delusions, but it was hard not to wonder ... what if? A good scientist can never completely dismiss a nonzero possibility. When I spoke to Karl Gebhardt, one of the astrophysicists who discovered the M-sigma relation, he told me wearily that he wished the news media would stop indulging Loeb’s over-the-top ideas and let the field get back to doing science. Then Gebhardt paused. “Now, that being said, if he finds something, it’s life-changing,” he said. “It will change everything.”

Let's see. It must be close to crunch time for a definitive analysis of the Pacific Ocean spherules. But it's hard to believe that he's not on what, in sixties terminology, would be described as a major ego-trip.

It's always seemed to me that visitation by an alien would have had to be one of absolute desperation. Whereas - due to time dilation - their voyage might have lasted a year, their home planet would have aged by thousands of years.

My take has always been that if there are interstellar visitors, they can’t have gotten here by any known physical means. They would have to be able to traverse the distances involved in some way other than literally travelling from there to here - something which would appear to us as supernatural, but which would in reality be a form of science unknown and probably inconceivable to humans. Otherwise the time involved, and the exposure to interstellar radiation, would be just too great to be feasible. (You encounter these kinds of ideas in sci fi, but then, the topic lends itself to that kind of speculation - like ‘wormholes’ or spacetime portals and the like. None of which seem remotely feasible in terms of current science.)

Fantastical news stories are usually pushed to disguise failing US policy.

So really it's an exercise in finding the fuck-up they're trying to cover up.

My guess would be the fact that US foreign policy is failing across the board has something to do with it.

They would have to be able to traverse the distances involved in some way other than literally travelling from there to here - something which would appear to us as supernatural, but which would in reality be a form of science unknown and probably inconceivable to humans. — Wayfarer

No question. I think we tend to set odd limits on our speculative thinking when it comes to potential alien technology. I keep hearing people talking about human understandings of time and space as if these would necessarily apply to an advanced civilisation.

If you're willing to entertain the thought that aliens exist and have visited Earth, you should be willing to entertain the thought that your government is trying to deceive you - something which it has the power to do, the institutions to do, a vested interest in, and has been caught red-handed doing several times in the past.

I know which one I find more far-fetched. :smile:

One of the uncanny things about the various pilot reports on UAPs is the way they accelerate from nothing to extremely fast in an instant without leaving a trail or sonic boom. It does seem like some form of visual illusion but some of the reports seem to have a kind of first-person veracity, these guys really did see something. I have an open mind about it, I’m prepared to accept it if any actual evidence comes to light that isn’t classified top secret - but so far…..

:up:

you should be willing to entertain the thought that your government is trying to deceive you — Tzeentch

I don’t buy any of that conspiracy theory stuff. Governments can barely organise the quotidian things they’re supposed to organise, let alone conspiracies to deceive. That is the province of internet trolls and fringe media and I have zero interest in any of it (or in arguing about it, so don’t bother.)

Governments can barely organise the quotidian things they’re supposed to organise, let alone conspiracies to deceive. — Wayfarer

The CIA's track record is out there for all to see, and most of it isn't even being disputed - it's accepted history.

As is the United States' self-evident history of lying and deceiving its population.

the topic lends itself to that kind of speculation - like ‘wormholes’ or spacetime portals and the like. None of which seem remotely feasible in terms of current science. — Wayfarer

Yes, SF can be speculative philosophy. There is the question of human understanding. I used to try to teach my Corgi, Jake, elementary calculus. You can guess how that turned out. :cool:

I’ve set a Google alert for ‘Avi Loeb Spherules’. I’m genuinely interested in finding out if the analysis proves they’re of extra-terrestrial, manufactured origin.

I don’t buy any of that conspiracy theory stuff. Governments can barely organise the quotidian things they’re supposed to organise, let alone conspiracies to deceive. — Wayfarer

Yep. That's about it.

Although, thinking about it some more, I would concede that there may well be Government efforts to conceal facts from the public, under the guise of confidentiality, for their own reasons. The problem is that the whole subject of extraterrestrials does attract attention from conspiracy theorists and cranks (queue X Files theme music). And Avi Loeb is not really helping much, as he seems inordinately keen to have his ardent hope for the discovery of extraterrestrial intelligence validated and highly dismissive of anyone who feels differently.

I look to AI rather than SF to open conceptual doors. I was more or less active as a mathematician for many years, and I witnessed a huge increase in topics more and more sophisticated, complicated, abstract, and generalized to the extent I gave up long ago trying to keep up with the subject - over 25,000 Wikipedia pages - and hundreds of research papers appearing daily on sites like ArXive.org . Perhaps AI will take us into realms beyond human comprehension, where visitation by aliens makes more sense. We may be at this threshold regarding quantum theory, where the math overrides human understanding - the ability to recognize analogies from everyday life, even from the vantage point of advanced science.

Of course, AI comes from human minds. So what may appear might be simply concepts that are too complicated to understand, rather than concepts beyond what an idealized human mind might conjure up.