Who'd like to take me up on a bet that in 4 years nothing of particular note will have happened, and you all are a bunch of hysterics? — Tzeentch

Define what is "of particular note".

Is it something like the collapse of the Soviet Union or unification of Germany? A financial crisis? Pandemic? End of the dollar system? Conflict over Taiwan? Breakup of NATO?

What would you consider as of particular note?

The democrats are convincing young girls that being a liberal means that you have an higher IQ than the rest of the society/world, though all the data show that since 1975 (when the liberals and pacifists took over the western world) IQ has dropped sharply, — Eros1982

It's brilliant arguments such as this that convince folk to support Trump.

1975 (when the liberals and pacifists took over the western world) — Eros1982

I missed that! Dang, and I would have enjoyed it too.

A Republican Congressman is already proposing to abolish the term limit in the Constitution so that Trump can serve a third term:

https://thehill.com/homenews/house/5104133-rep-andy-ogles-proposes-trump-third-term-amendment/

I was pretty sure this would wait until week two, but there it is.

Meanwhile in the absurd monologue he delivered to the World Economic Forum, he continued to insist that those who don’t manufacture in the US will have to pay very high tariffs which will go towards paying down US debt. It’s such an elementary and obvious fact - that the consumers of the importing country are those who pay the tariffs - but even now, after 10 years on the world stage, one that he doesn’t grasp. (Pity the poor staffers who have to try and explain this to him….’ahem, Mr President, the fact is….. :yikes: )

Took so long into the Trump presidency? I guess how this discourse will go: remember FDR! The 22nd amendment is so new, just given in 1951.

They have to put that through likely before the midterms, as likely then the honeymoon is likely over.

It’s such an elementary and obvious fact - that the consumers of the importing country are those who pay the tariffs — Wayfarer

Just like with inflation, people simply don't understand this or simply won't care. And thus any outrageous reasoning will carry through.

And as I've said, Brexit showed with the British people that once a populism takes hold and it's consequences start to really suck, those that went with the populist streak will be in denial for a really long time. People will believe in the "Morning for" -moment and think that the populists will make it better. These people will simply just become quite silent in the end and once the administration changes, then they have all of this built up fury about how things suck.

(Pity the poor staffers who have to try and explain this to him….’ahem, Mr President, the fact is….. :yikes: ) — Wayfarer

That was the stuff of the first Trump administration. Then people tried that. Not now. Nope. Nobody is going to tell him that. Likely Elon will tell Trump how much that will hurt Trump's own wealth and people can convince the most outrageous actions by reading what outrageous countertariffs EU or the World in general will put up with the US.

The real issue here is that Trump as many Americans are totally ignorant is that the whole economic system is rigged for the US, not against it. Trump is simply dismantling the Superpower status of the US. Why would the Middle Eastern oil producers just use US dollars in the oil trade? Why would the US dollar have the role it has in the global monetary system? It's really not because the US is so awesome, the economy of the rest of the World is larger than of the US. It's all because of the alliances, because of WW2, that the US enjoys this.

Yet a good question is really if this truly is fascism, as the term usually is used as a derogatory insult. There's not the worship of the state itself as in fascist Italy etc. Much looks more like a populist leader with an oligarchy which doesn't care about the separation of powers or the institutions.

Perceptive as always. But I think the fascism will show up in his attempts to ‘turn the tables on the Justice system’, when he tries to ‘go after’ all of the prosecutors and personnel who brought charges against him during the hiatus. There’ll be Trump apparatchiks infiltrating Justice. Heck, they’re already insisting that departments rat on any hidden DEI initiatives that the thought police haven’t detected.

An aggressive foreign policy is nothing new for the US. It's not pretty, obviously, but it's not fascism in the way that it looms over the EU under the unelected Queen Ursula.

Define what is "of particular note". — ssu

Fascism, obviously.

An aggressive foreign policy is nothing new for the US. It's not pretty, obviously, but it's not fascism in the way that it looms over the EU under the unelected, nepo baby Queen Ursula. — Tzeentch

Nobody elected Elon Musk either but Trump is using the weight of the US empire to pressure the UK to not taxing tech billionaires like him.

This has been common practice in the US for decades. The only difference now is that the billionaires are not on the team you like, so suddenly it's fascism. :yawn:

For a leader (of the executive branch) to try to seize the control of the other branches and also to stifle the free press is something that can indeed happen in a republic without it being turned into a fascist state. I would argue that autocratic leadership doesn't have to mean that the country is fascist. One can argue that it's a "fascist" move. But then again a lot of political ideologies are against liberal democracy and the separation of powers. Think of Marxism-Leninism. The role of the government can actually be small and power can be with an oligarchy around the leader.

Fascism, obviously. — Tzeentch

Well, who'll be judge of that... Trump is already called that.

but it's not fascism in the way that it looms over the EU under the unelected Queen Ursula. — Tzeentch

What? Queen Ursula?

The EU is a de facto confederacy.

Yes, the institution tries desperately to push for federalism and tries to act as a United States of Europe, but that won't happen. The fact is that the union is made up of sovereign nation states, talking different languages, having different cultural and historical backgrounds and in the end, being sovereign nation states. You can imagine something else and perhaps convince the Americans here, but that is the fact. California or Texas aren't sovereign states and their foreign policy is handled in Washington DC, but Spain and Ireland are sovereign states and their foreign policy isn't done from Brussels.

The executive branch, the Commission, just as the Council of the European Union, is under the control of the sovereign states. It won't happen, there's always going to be a Hungary or an Austria or some country whose leader is opposed to things the majority are pushing. This is structural and endemic for the union.

What happens, and will happen, is that countries like Hungary (or similar) will try to portray the EU's executive branch as "fascist" or "deep state" or whatever. But this is just political rhetoric.

I wouldn't be happy with the EU Parliament taking more power, because that would undermine the Parliament of my own country. So people wanting to give more power to the EU Parliament are in my view crazy.

This has been common practice in the US for decades. The only difference now is that the billionaires are not on the team you like, so suddenly it's fascism. :yawn: — Tzeentch

Again, it isn't fascism when the state is working on behalf and for one rich individual. And even if similar things have happened before, it hasn't been so clear, so obvious. Earlier managers from corporations or rich people had to put aside their holdings when acting in a government position. Now Elon has simply circumvented that with the aloof DOGE and can be the World's richest man at the same time as he plans the US state to better for him.

This has been common practice in the US for decades. The only difference now is that the billionaires are not on the team you like, so suddenly it's fascism. :yawn: — Tzeentch

Hey I'm only going off your definition of fascism here. If you felt the need to call the EU "fascists" earlier then you should do the same for Trump as well. Either both are fascists or none are. The only reason I can see for you not doing either is because, as you suggest, one is on "your team" and the other isn't.

For a leader (of the executive branch) to try to seize the control of the other branches and also to stifle the free press is something that can indeed happen in a republic without it being turned into a fascist state — ssu

I guess you're technically correct. But it's not a stretch to say that all Trump's impulses are at least fascistic, and that the party he now owns has done little or nothing to check them.

Nothing new under the sun. The US has been an oligarchy for decades, and it still is. It's just that the previous oligarchs have been ousted and they don't like the new ones, so we have to suffer through the whole sanctimonious melodrama.

If anyone truly believed it was going to turn into something remotely fascist, I'm sure someone would have taken me up on my bet; predictably no one did, because all of them know they're just coping like disgruntled children, but unwilling to admit it.

Hey I'm only going by your definition of fascism here. If you felt the need to call the EU "fascists" earlier then you should do the same for Trump as well. Either both are fascists or none are. — Mr Bee

I never gave my definition of fascism, nor did I call the EU fascist, but this is just a dumb argument to make.

The EU is untransparent, overtly undemocratic and authoritarian. The unelected Queen Ursula has recently started her second term - a spot she only got because of her friendship with Merkel.

This situation cannot be compared to the US, and obviously between the two if any are closer to fascism it is the EU by a mile and a half.

I never gave my definition of fascism, nor did I call the EU fascist, but this is just a dumb argument to make. — Tzeentch

You literally called them fascist in your other post:

A while back I pointed out how, if you want a real example of looming fascism, one should look no further than our own backyard, Europe.

Today it seems European Union is becoming more and more authoritarian, now overtly threatening to sink the Hungarian economy if it refuses to back aid to Ukraine.

Brussels threatens to hit Hungary's economy if Viktor Orbán vetoes Ukraine aid (Financial Times)

Note the lack of respect for the rule of law, the sovereignty of Hungary, and the EU's willingness to strong-arm smaller nations into obedience.

All I'm asking is for you to be consistent.

This situation cannot be compared to the US, and obviously between the two if any are closer to fascism it is the EU by a mile and a half. — Tzeentch

As far as I can tell there's not much of a distinction between what you pointed out and what's going on in the US. You know apart from the fact that one is on the nefarious left and the other is on the pure right :roll: .

I called the EU a better example of looming fascism than the US, which you then tried to misconstrue as me calling the EU fascist according to a set definition.

All I'll ask of you is to not put words in my mouth or deliberately take the things I say out of their context.

Not surprisingly you're splitting hairs again.

You had better get used to that if you're intent on misrepresenting what I say or putting words in my mouth.

Nothing new under the sun. The US has been an oligarchy for decades, and it still is. It's just that the previous oligarchs have been ousted and they don't like the new ones, so we have to suffer through the whole sanctimonious melodrama. — Tzeentch

Well, if you are talking about the Trump family with also the Kushner family, I guess you are right:

(BBC, 14th Feb 2024) After leaving the White House, Mr Kushner's private equity firm received a $2bn (£1.59bn) investment from Saudi Arabia's sovereign wealth fund.

Mr Kushner worked closely with Saudi Arabia on a number of issues during the Trump administration.

He has denied that the investment represented a conflict of interest.

Add into the context Elon, and there's the obvious inner circle.

Of course I'm not just talking about the Trump family. What rock have you been living under that you think oligarchy only became a thing under Trump?

A Republican Congressman is already proposing to abolish the term limit in the Constitution so that Trump can serve a third term: — Wayfarer

Well, isn't that the beauty of the Constitution of the U.S.? It wasn't that long ago that the Dems wanted to make a similar change to the Constitution regarding term limits for the SCOTUS. The Constitution was designed to be molded by future generations, and any change made by one party applies to all of them where a Democrat president might be able to have three terms as well.

I'm all for limiting terms, I only wish Congress should start with themselves.

It's brilliant arguments such as this that convince folk to support Trump. — Banno

It's certainly a better argument than this argument: "What we really need is a feminomenon!". https://www.youtube.com/shorts/48G82Cq9C9k

Point is what brilliant argument can be made to continue voting for either side instead of something else considering the state of the U.S. the past 30 years? There are other options. People just need to stop seeing the world as red and blue, or black and white. There are other colors in the spectrum (other ideas/solutions that are neither red or blue). People just need to stop thinking that either-or are their only options and the power to change in ourselves because we know the politicians are not going to..

Of course I'm not just talking about the Trump family. What rock have you been living under that you think oligarchy only became a thing under Trump? — Tzeentch

Again with the strawmans, Tzeentch. Do we start with the Robber Baron's era or United Fruit Company or Halliburton, or go with the Koch Brothers or with the so much loved George Soros?

Anyway, I think today it's far more obvious, with billionaires like Elon not putting their wealth and other duties on hold (or aside) when applying to government positions. At least formally Dick Cheney as vice President wasn't anymore the CEO of Halliburton. But DOGE is just there in the open and Elon can enjoy both worlds. And nobody cares.

Took so long into the Trump presidency? I guess how this discourse will go: remember FDR! The 22nd amendment is so new, just given in 1951.

They have to put that through likely before the midterms, as likely then the honeymoon is likely over.

Plenty Democratic members of Congress have introduced legislation to repeal 22nd Amendment, like Rep. Serrano, Rep. Barney Frank, Rep. Howard Berman and Senator Harry Reid. Therefor, fascism has been in America since at least the early 2000’s.

Robert Paxton, a professor emeritus at Columbia University, defines fascism in his 2004 book The Anatomy of Fascism

a sense of overwhelming crisis beyond the reach of any traditional solutions; — BC

I'd be feeling this if I were a native brit right now. The notion of a leadership that barely punishes and largely ignores foreign pedophilic grooming gangs who target its own native population is outrageous without comparison and it tears at the very fabric of civilization.

Perhaps the "advances" of celebrating diversity and abolishing capital punishment and criminal leniency were a step backwards and it's all just gonna fall down like a stack of dominoes. I think we're seeing a major challenge to so-called progressive, civilized world order built over the past several decades. We live in a fascinating time. It is very possible that the UK is just beyond saving.

All I'm asking is for you to be consistent. — Mr Bee

I'm sorry, but your statement triggered a mental reflex: "A foolish consistency is the hobgoblin of little minds." Ralph Waldo Emerson

It is very possible that the UK is just beyond saving. — BitconnectCarlos

Possible, but I don't know whether it is or not. Just guessing, it is salvageable.

Each of Paxton's fascist characteristics might apply in some degree and together not add up to fascism. The January 6 attack on the capital (instigated by DT) seems like an overtly fascist act, which hasn't been repeated so far.

The American political system works. A frustrated voter said it doesn't make any difference who you vote for -- nothing changes. Precisely. Both parties will deliver reasonably adequate government, sufficient to keep the various vested economic interests happy. That's not fascism -- that's merely loathsome corporate capitalism.

Who'd like to take me up on a bet that in 4 years nothing of particular note will have happened, and you all are a bunch of hysterics?

I bet a 1000 Tzeentch-coins on it. — Tzeentch

I certainly take you up on it. Of course we have to settle on what 'of note' means. I predict that a major constitutional event will take place that furthers or tries to further the hold on power of current government circles, including, but not limited to, Presidents being allowed a third term, prosecution of political and social high profile figures on drummed up charges, the administrative branch blatantly ignoring a supreme court verdict or something else of significant constitutional weight.

↪Banno As they do under any president. Trump's first presidency was nothing special, no fascism, no World War 3, no end of days, etc. and I see no reason to believe his second will be any different. — Tzeentch

I find the events of the 6th of January definitely a constitutional event of note.

I would also fin invading a country without any backing in international or humanitarian law to be a constitutional event of note.

There'll be far more personal consequences, too, of course not involving @Tzeentch.

Donald Trump ends security deal for Anthony Fauci, says he'd feel no responsibility if harm befell him