Do note what I said: The ATACMS was developed in the 1980's. It has inertial guidance just as nearly all long range missile artillery systems have, even if it can be aided by GPS. All you need is specific coordinates of both the target and your position and some meteorological data. That's it. Even the Tochka missile that Ukraine has (or had) could hit something like a large ammo dump.

Do notice all the drone attacks done by Ukraine, btw. Far earlier Ukraine attacked Dyagilevo and Engels air bases and destroyed TU-22 Backfire and two TU-95 Bear aircraft. So that shows their capability.

Besides, Ammo dumps don't move, they can be only emptied, but that takes time. What is telling that neither side cannot hit moving targets deep inside in the other ones territory. I haven't seen one example of a moving train that has been attacked and destroyed (I may have just missed the occation). Russian aircraft don't dare to venture deep into Ukraine and attack trains and traffic.

The ATACMS was developed in the 1980's. It has inertial guidance just as nearly all long range missile artillery systems have, even if it can be aided by GPS. — ssu

You won't hit the broad side of a barn with just '80s INS, but the guidance modules have been updated over time to be able to correlate INS with systems other than GPS, since GPS is basically a relic of the past due to how easily it is jammed.

You won't hit the broad side of a barn with just '80s INS, — Tzeentch

Ammo dumps are far larger than a side of a barn. Or you mean top of a barn? Besides, as the solid fuel propellants of the missiles go old, old inventories aren't from the 1980's anymore. At least in the US.

We are talking of a 10-50m CEP with ATACMS. Does the job perfectly.

(Just for comparisons: 450m CEP for a SCUD B from the 60's, 4500m CEP for a V2 during WW2.)

We are talking of a 10-50m CEP with ATACMS. — ssu

With just a tiny, old INS over a 300km trajectory?

Yeah, no.

The whole point is for the GPS and INS to function together to reduce their respective errors.

Russia is invading Europe with China’s money, Iran’s weapons, and North Korea’s troops. Chinese ships captained by Russians are destroying undersea natural gas pipelines and telecom cables in the Baltic Sea. Russian weapons used in Ukraine are built with Chinese components. Russia is causing mayhem on the streets of the UK. Their mercenaries have been raping and plundering their way through Africa and using the proceeds to finance the war in Ukraine. Iran, supported by China, has encircled Israel with its proxies and set the better part of the Middle East—and key shipping lanes—alight. Putin regularly threatens us with nuclear weapons. What could this be if not a world war? — It's Time to Call This WWWIII

A sophisticated way of saying "Putin bad." - not very convincing.

If we want to avoid WW3, we should probably look into our own role in perpetuating the conflict - for example at the role of the US and the UK in blocking the Istanbul agreement, and Biden's current escalatory actions to make peace impossible when Trump has stated he intends to pursue a deal.

If we want to avoid WW3, we should probably look into our own role in perpetuating the conflict — Tzeentch

The defeatist attitude that will guarantee a victory for Putin.

Biden's current escalatory actions to make peace impossible when Trump has stated he intends to pursue a deal. — Tzeentch

Hoping that Trump will cut a surrender deal to Putin, just like he did with the Taleban?

Well, it's a possibility, unfortunately

Our shockingly obscene incompetence has already guaranteed a victory for Putin.

If you're still hoping for a victory you need a dosis of reality.

If you're still hoping for a victory you need a dosis of reality. — Tzeentch

I'm hoping that Ukraine exists as an independent state now and in the long run.

That won't happen if we stab Ukraine in the back.

The Americans have already stabbed the Ukrainians in the back.

The promise upon which the Ukrainians hedged their chances against the Russians was the fact that we would come to their rescue. We did not. We hung them out to dry, drip-feeding them weapons and aid in a way that's ensuring their slow demise.

There is no military path to an independent Ukraine. Ukraine will be completely hollowed out. Whatever is left at the end will not be an independent state in any meaningful sense of the term.

Ukraine's best chance at independence were the Istanbul negotiations.

We hung them out to dry, drip-feeding them weapons and aid in a way that's ensuring their slow demise. — Tzeentch

I agree that the idea of giving Ukraine enough to survive and only that is the cause that makes the prospects of negotiations with Russia now so dire. It simply has been delusional to think that military aid given to Ukraine would mean that Putin would launch WW3. He isn't and the Russian leadership aren't insane and suicidal.

But this is an example where Western politicians have lost the idea of winning on the battlefield, but just to "send messages" with military aid. For them it's a minor issue, one among others. For Putin this war is existential. Once Russia is committed, only the possibility of a total fiasco will force Russia to the negotiation table. But now Putin is totally OK with hundreds of thousands of Russian soldier having been killed or wounded, so ideas that Trump could force him to do anything are whimsical. Hence the only one Trump can pressure is Ukraine.

Ukraine's best chance at independence were the Istanbul negotiations. — Tzeentch

I severely doubt that and besides, a lot has happened after that. Yearning those negotiations that didn't go anywhere is like to yearn for the time of the Oslo Peace Process at the present time in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. That moment has passed, it's not turning, things have changed.

For Putin this war is existential. — ssu

Not just for Putin, mind you.

It's quite popular among the mainstream media to repeat the idea that this is 'Putin's war', but it's been known since prior to the 2008 Bucharest NATO Summit that NATO expansion into Ukraine is a red line for much if not all of the Russian political establishment.

So yes, the Russians are prepared to go far in order for this war to be settled in their favor. That much should be crystal clear by now.

That moment has passed, it's not turning, things have changed. — ssu

True. Things have gotten gravely worse for Ukraine. There's nothing left of the bargaining position they had in March/April 2022. Frontlines are crumbling, nations are starting to talk about withdrawing support, etc.

That's a direct result of choosing the military path, and continuing on the military path will obviously extend this trend probably all the way to Ukraine's total demise.


In Ukraine's defense, there is another dimension to this.

In March/April 2022, the West told the Ukrainians to cease negotiations - even make them impossible as Zelensky made sure to cement in the Ukrainian constitution - and double down on the military path.

Ukraine likely did this because of promises that were made by the West.

Now Ukraine is likely and understandably bitter about the prospect of negotiations in the face of wavering Western support. We basically made them fight on for two years, for nothing.

That's probably why Ukraine will need serious 'nudging' (aka, threatening to cut off support) to force them to change their stance.