It's still only a possibility, and not the likeliest outcome, that Trump really can change fundamentally US foreign policy. Yet striking a dagger in the back of Ukraine can happen. He did it already with Afghanistan. He surely can do a similar surrender again.

But it's likely more Trumpian moaning and bitching about us euroweasels. That Trump takes out the US of NATO is unlikely: you really would have to have some serious leadership abilities to do that.

At least last time he visited my country where he met Putin, so he know where my country is.

At least last time he visited my country where he met Putin, so he know where my country is. — ssu

:lol:

That's a relief. I believe he doesn't know to pin the Iberian Peninsula in an European map, but he filtered with Morocco back in the day... so we have to be cautious from now on.

Oh, wait. My country will do anything—as always—and they will keep having Rota and Morón bases.

"All is chaos under the heavens, the times are excellent." Not sure quoting a mass murderer for wisdom is wise but everybody getting their panties in a twist because Trump won; remember it. There are opportunities here. Here's my list:

1. As the U.S. scales back on environmental regulations, the EU could solidify its global leadership in climate action. This moment could further the European Green Deal and enhance the EU's position as a hub for green technology innovation and investment. By strengthening partnerships with like-minded regions (e.g., Canada, Japan), the EU could lead a coalition to tackle climate change and attract global investors focused on sustainability.

2. The EU could also capitalize on a more protectionist U.S. approach by attracting foreign investors looking for stable markets.

3. The EU can leverage its more stable stance to exert greater influence in institutions like the UN, WHO, and WTO. By doing so, the EU could shape international policy in ways that align with its standards on trade, human rights, and environmental protection.

4. Given Trump's prior skepticism toward NATO and multilateral security, the EU could take a stronger stance on European defense and autonomy. This might involve further funding for the European Defence Fund and strengthening PESCO (Permanent Structured Cooperation).

5. Policies may lead to a U.S. shift away from renewable energy production, possibly leading to increased oil and gas prices. The EU may want to fast-track its transition to renewables to mitigate potential price shocks and reduce reliance on external energy sources, especially in a time of political instability.

@ssu anything to add?

What the EU should do is all of the above. What it probably will do is fall apart.

1. As the U.S. scales back on environmental regulations, the EU could solidify its global leadership in climate action. This moment could further the European Green Deal and enhance the EU's position as a hub for green technology innovation and investment. By strengthening partnerships with like-minded regions (e.g., Canada, Japan), the EU could lead a coalition to tackle climate change and attract global investors focused on sustainability.

2. The EU could also capitalize on a more protectionist U.S. approach by attracting foreign investors looking for stable markets.

3. The EU can leverage its more stable stance to exert greater influence in institutions like the UN, WHO, and WTO. By doing so, the EU could shape international policy in ways that align with its standards on trade, human rights, and environmental protection.

4. Given Trump's prior skepticism toward NATO and multilateral security, the EU could take a stronger stance on European defense and autonomy. This might involve further funding for the European Defence Fund and strengthening PESCO (Permanent Structured Cooperation).

5. Policies may lead to a U.S. shift away from renewable energy production, possibly leading to increased oil and gas prices. The EU may want to fast-track its transition to renewables to mitigate potential price shocks and reduce reliance on external energy sources, especially in a time of political instability. — Benkei

Agreed. Nations in the EU might need to stop bitching around and start to face the reality that we all need to collaborate more, not less. Build up a proper position that can hold back Russia, China and deal with whatever shenanigans the US does.

A major hurdle is however that we have so little technology research and development. There's too much of a dominance from the US in terms of technology like AI. While people think AI is a fad, they're just judging the current appearance of it. But outside the public fluff it has major implications in both security and productivity. The EU needs to support technology development more.

1. As the U.S. scales back on environmental regulations, the EU could solidify its global leadership in climate action. This moment could further the European Green Deal and enhance the EU's position as a hub for green technology innovation and investment. By strengthening partnerships with like-minded regions (e.g., Canada, Japan), the EU could lead a coalition to tackle climate change and attract global investors focused on sustainability.

2. The EU could also capitalize on a more protectionist U.S. approach by attracting foreign investors looking for stable markets.

3. The EU can leverage its more stable stance to exert greater influence in institutions like the UN, WHO, and WTO. By doing so, the EU could shape international policy in ways that align with its standards on trade, human rights, and environmental protection.

4. Given Trump's prior skepticism toward NATO and multilateral security, the EU could take a stronger stance on European defense and autonomy. This might involve further funding for the European Defence Fund and strengthening PESCO (Permanent Structured Cooperation).

5. Policies may lead to a U.S. shift away from renewable energy production, possibly leading to increased oil and gas prices. The EU may want to fast-track its transition to renewables to mitigate potential price shocks and reduce reliance on external energy sources, especially in a time of political instability. — Benkei

1. The US economy will boom under this plan, as global change regulations are expensive. The US will outproduce the EU and will attract places like Canada and Japan to engage in business with them. It is doubtful those nations will prioritize the ethics of global resource management over reduced prices.

2. The US isn't as much protectionist as it is narcissist. It doesn't think it can live by itself. It thinks it's the only one that matters because it's better than everyone else. Particularly under Trump, he's willing to do business with anyone under his terms. Whatever foreign investors the EU acquires are subject to US interests because a deal that disrupts US interests will have negative consequences as the US tries to eliminate the disruption. This isn't to say the US will prevail in any and all competitive efforts against it, but I don't think it's reasonable to think a competive response wouldn't be forthcoming.

3. Those organizations are paper tigers without US support. If you can't get US buy in, they become debate clubs.

4. This is exactly what Trump is trying to motivate. He's trying to save on defense costs by pushing it back on Europe.

5. A shift toward more drilling will reduce oil prices and forestall climate friendly alternatives like electric cars and the like, which many Americans have no interest in anyway. Any drop in cost of living, even if temporary, will make Trump very popular because inflation of basic needs (like fuel, housing, and food) have risen drastically recently.

The solution is for the EU and its many nations is to figure out how to work closely with the US in order to function together harmoniously. You guys are going to have to deal with the devil. I can deal with having to deal with the devil since its the devil my fellow Americans and I created, but for you, wow, that must really suck. You were just sitting there eating your sandwich and this lands on your plate.

4. This is exactly what Trump is trying to motivate. He's trying to save on defense costs by pushing it back on Europe. — Hanover

This is in Europe's interest, though. Relying on other countries for defense is nothing other than giving up one's sovereignty. This is exactly why I view Europe as little more than Uncle Sam's vassals.

The solution is for the EU and its many nations is to figure out how to work closely with the US in order to function together harmoniously. — Hanover

The EU should decouple from the US, and instead seek engagement with continental powers like China. The US is fundamentally a meddling power that relies on dividing the Eurasian continent as the source of its influence.

Conversely, it doesn't share in the cost of war on the Eurasian continent.

Let me repeat that: the US thrives when the Eurasian continent is divided, but does not share in the cost of war.

If you're in any way geopolitically conscious, you will keep the US very far from your door.

This is in Europe's interest, though. Relying on other countries for defense is nothing other than giving up one's sovereignty. This is exactly why I view Europe as little more than Uncle Sam's vassals. — Tzeentch

Sure, but the price one pays for a defense results in the loss of other things, like public healthcare, losses in revenues from business regulation and all sorts of things.

The EU should decouple from the US, and instead seek engagement with continental powers like China. — Tzeentch

Yeah, great idea. Work with China. Let me know how that works out. Know who loves Trump? The Vietnamese and Vietnamese Americans. Know why? They hate China, just like he does. That is, a nation that was devastated by the US has aligned itself with the US instead of China because it needs protection from China. Think that one through.

If you're in any way geopolitically conscious, you will keep the US very far from your door. — Tzeentch

If you're Iran that's probably true.

1. The US economy will boom under this plan, as global change regulations are expensive. The US will outproduce the EU and will attract places like Canada and Japan to engage in business with them. It is doubtful those nations will prioritize the ethics of global resource management over reduced prices. — Hanover

Yeah but it probably won't beat places like China and India given how much more lax their regulations are. Those are the countries they need to compete with.

4. This is exactly what Trump is trying to motivate. He's trying to save on defense costs by pushing it back on Europe. — Hanover

Has he suggested decreasing defense spending before? It sounds like he will just continue the status quo of the US being the biggest spender on defense by far. I think it appeals to his tough guy persona.

5. A shift toward more drilling will reduce oil prices and forestall climate friendly alternatives like electric cars and the like, which many Americans have no interest in anyway. Any drop in cost of living, even if temporary, will make Trump very popular because inflation of basic needs (like fuel, housing, and food) have risen drastically recently. — Hanover

There's only so much more drilling that can be done to reduce oil prices (contrary to what some on the right say the Biden administration is overseeing record production right now). Also contrary to what Trump says, there is little correlation between the price of other goods the price of oil and gas.

Know who loves Trump? The Vietnamese and Vietnamese Americans. Know why? They hate China, just like he does. That is, a nation that was devastated by the US has aligned itself with the US instead of China because it needs protection from China. Think that one through. — Hanover

Europe is not Vietnam, but on the topic of Vietnam - it became a 'partner country' to BRICS a few days ago.

Yeah but it probably won't beat places like China and India given how much more lax their regulations are. Those are the countries they need to compete with. — Mr Bee

I'm not supporting Trump here, but I'm just going through his policies. What you bring up here is why he wishes to impose tarriffs. He's using his bully power to limit trade with a nation that needs it, which will weaken them. If they locate other markets in Europe, I would expect tarriffs in Europe. And so what would then happen is that someone takes out a calculator and realizes the better way to make money is not to create their economic policies from moral theories, but instead to maximize profits.

Has he suggested decreasing defense spending before? It sounds like he will just continue the status quo of the US being the biggest spender on defense by far. I think it appeals to his tough guy persona. — Mr Bee

This is the whole thing about him wanting to force NATO nations to pay for their own defense. He's threatening Europe with insecurity by underfunding NATO unless European nations better foot the bill. This fits his "everything is a deal" persona.

There's only so much more drilling that can be done to reduce oil prices (contrary to what some on the right say the Biden administration is overseeing record production right now). Also contrary to what Trump says, there is little correlation between the price of other goods the price of oil and gas. — Mr Bee

I'm not getting into the weeds of what causes what because I don't know enough about it. I can say that fuel costs are an important part of everyone's budget and they've increased. Sam's Club sells gas at like 10 cents cheaper per gallon and cars are up and down the street to save the $2.00 on a tank. It's part of inflation control.

I'm not supporting Trump here, but I'm just going through his policies. What you bring up here is why he wishes to impose tarriffs. He's using his bully power to limit trade with a nation that needs it, which will weaken them. If they locate other markets in Europe, I would expect tarriffs in Europe. And so what would then happen is that someone takes out a calculator and realizes the better way to make money is not to create their economic policies from moral theories, but instead to maximize profits. — Hanover

Tariffs only work with regards to the US-China/India trade relationship. You mentioned how places like Canada and Japan will invest more in the US because of the deregulation but China and India produce way more goods at a cheaper cost and Trump's tariffs won't do anything to change that.

If anything starting a global trade war may weaken the US's economic standing on the global stage, as other countries are more likely to become less dependent on the US market and trade with each other, strengthening China's hand. I think that is likely to happen even after Trump leaves office because the US has shown itself to be an unpredictable trading partner. That's not even going into the likely counter tariffs imposed on the US from other nations who don't like the idea of a 20% tariff being imposed on them.

This is the whole thing about him wanting to force NATO nations to pay for their own defense. He's threatening Europe with insecurity by underfunding NATO unless European nations better foot the bill. This fits his "everything is a deal" persona. — Hanover

Yeah but I don't see the end goal of all this to cut spending domestically and fund things like, say, healthcare. That may be what people like Bernie would do but Trump in his first term has increased military spending like every other president and I've seen no indications that he would change that in what he says. He only seems interested in NATO countries paying their fair share for it's own sake.

I'm not getting into the weeds of what causes what because I don't know enough about it. I can say that fuel costs are an important part of everyone's budget and they've increased. Sam's Club sells gas at like 10 cents cheaper per gallon and cars are up and down the street to save the $2.00 on a tank. It's part of inflation control. — Hanover

Gas prices have gone down since 2022 but we haven't seen the costs of other goods go down in turn. Inflation has consistently been happening for the past century while gas prices have fluctuated. There is no connection between gas prices being low and the cost of everyday items.

Well, Germany seems to have decided that what it should do is chuck the current coalition and aim for new elections in the spring. So both the US and one of the EU's central countries will simultaneously be in a transition period this winter.

What a day.

If anything starting a global trade war may weaken the US's economic standing on the global stage, as other countries are more likely to become less dependent on the US market and trade with each other, strengthening China's hand. I think that is likely to happen even after Trump leaves office because the US has shown itself to be an unpredictable trading partner. That's not even going into the likely counter tariffs imposed on the US from other nations who don't like the idea of a 20% tariff being imposed on them. — Mr Bee

The global economy is fairly integrated and the US is the primary stabilizer and engine. This is a situation the whole world is creating because everyone benefits from it. Transitioning to a different structure would require some kind of massive crisis. It's not the kind of thing anyone would choose. So China will continue to do the best it can with the US.

The global economy is fairly integrated and the US is the primary stabilizer and engine. This is a situation the whole world is creating because everyone benefits from it. Transitioning to a different structure would require some kind of massive crisis. It's not the kind of thing anyone would choose. So China will continue to do the best it can with the US. — frank

One can argue that the current situation is a crisis, or has the potential to lead to one. At the very least I think alot of countries are gonna reassess their reliance on the US, which is to the benefit of countries like China. Even after Trump leaves how long will it be before people elect another lunatic?

One can argue that the current situation is a crisis, or has the potential to lead to one. — Mr Bee

Things seem pretty peaceful to me. Where do you see crisis brewing?

At the very least I think alot of countries are gonna reassess their reliance on the US, which is to the benefit of countries like China. — Mr Bee

The US is a declining superpower, China is heading toward superpower status. For a while, I'm guessing the two will be a stable pair for the world.

Things seem pretty peaceful to me. Where do you see crisis brewing? — frank

Trade policy since we're talking about it. A global trade war sounds like it'd be pretty bad for everyone including the US ironically enough.

The US is a declining superpower, China is heading toward superpower status. For a while, I'm guessing the two will be a stable pair for the world. — frank

Exactly and I think this will accelerate that.

Trade policy since we're talking about it. A global trade war sounds like it'd be pretty bad for everyone including the US ironically enough. — Mr Bee

Yes. There was a trade war right before the Great Depression.