:up:

Dec 5, 2023: House Speaker Johnson is insisting on sweeping border security changes in a deal for Ukraine aid

And now...

Jan 26, 2024: Speaker Mike Johnson calls Ukraine-immigration deal ‘dead on arrival’ in House
"Former president Donald Trump criticised the potential agreement being brokered in the Senate on his Truth Social site. The former president said “we need a Strong, Powerful, and essentially “PERFECT” Border and, unless we get that, we are better off not making a Deal"

It appears to me that Trump wants the "border" problems to persist, because it's to his political benefit.

It appears to me that Trump wants the "border" problems to persist, because it's to his political benefit. — Relativist

Spot on.

The republicans in congress have not supported border policy put forth after Trump voiced his opposition to it. Prior to that they were preparing to take action on the border issues. So, what we have is someone who is not an elected official influencing those who are to such a degree as to have them not take action on things they themselves loudly claim needs to be taken.

Why?

Because Trump wants to campaign on the 'border' and if there are bi-partisan actions taken to help correct the problems, then Trump's case is weakened, his plan is short circuited. So, just like Trump wants an economic crash to happen, he also wants the border to be a problem.

The Republican party is deliberately not taking action to correct illegal entry into the United States, because Trump wants it to be as big of a problem as it can be right now. That is to put Trump's political interests in front of what's in the best interest of America.

Speaking of the 'border problems' being peddled...

Now Trump is literally saying "blame it on me" if no border bill passes. Though like I said before, the American people are probably not gonna blame him anyways and he knows it.

Trump is promising a "perfect" border solution. Reminds me of his criticism of the (imperfect) Iran nuclear deal- he promised to get rid of it, and get a better deal. He succeeded only in getting rid of it.

While people are bickering over a border, I'm just waiting for Sleepy Joe to go to war with Iran and blow up the Middle-East to salvage his chances at this election. :lol:

Are you claiming that if not for an election we would not go to war against Iran?
Is what Iran and its allies doing of no consequence?
This would only be a successful strategy if Congress approves the war. Does this mean that Congress wants to salvage his chances?
If this is a winning strategy wouldn't Trump also advocate for war?

Are you claiming that if not for an election we would not go to war against Iran? — Fooloso4

It's no secret that the neocons and Israel want the US to go to war with Iran. The MIC wants war, period - any war will do.

And Joe wants to get re-elected. Or, more accurate, the people who control Joe don't want Trump to be elected.

It's one of those perfect storms of perverse incentives brewing. A shit blizzard, if you will.

Is what Iran and its allies doing of no consequence? — Fooloso4

It might be of consequence, but going to war with Iran is another type of crazy. The US would get stuck in the worst quagmire thinkable, not to mention what it would do to the rest of the Middle-East, and it would dumpster what is left of the US empire in a single swoop.

This would only be a successful strategy if Congress approves the war. Does this mean that Congress wants to salvage his chances? — Fooloso4

I don't know who controls congress. Probably it's a melange of the worst lobbies imaginable, and thus war with Iran to save Biden's campaign is definitely in the cards.

If this is a winning strategy wouldn't Trump also advocate for war? — Fooloso4

Nah, Trump is running squarely against the neocon establishment with his isolationism. It was never really an option for him. Besides, why would they choose wild card Trump over puppet Joe?

You have not answered my questions.

Here is another one: If the primary motivation is to eliminate Trump then why not simply eliminate him?

While people are bickering over a border, I'm just waiting for Sleepy Joe to go to war with Iran and blow up the Middle-East to salvage his chances at this election. — Tzeentch

Are you predicting Biden will go to war with Iran before the election? Are you also predicting this would help his chances of getting elected?

Sure, why not.

Oh, look.

Oh, look. — Tzeentch

Oh, look - "radical Iran-backed militant groups operating in Syria and Iraq", directed by and/or supporting the election of Biden, attacked and killed three American soldiers.

I predict just before the presidential election Biden will declare war, possibly with Iran. It won't be pretty, but it will draw upon patriotism of the citizenry. It might work or it might not. Remember the disastrous departure from the now Taliban country. — jgill

I thought this was unlikely, but after today..

Yemen is also a possible candidate for the hail mary war.

I predict just before the presidential election Biden will declare war, possibly with Iran. It won't be pretty, but it will draw upon patriotism of the citizenry. It might work or it might not. Remember the disastrous departure from the now Taliban country.
— jgill

I thought this was unlikely, but after today.. — RogueAI

What tends to get obscured in such speculation is the question of motive. There is an important difference between declaring war in response to the actions of an Iranian backed militia or other group and declaring war as a means of uniting the country against a common enemy. It may be that the latter is a consequence of the former but that does not mean it would be correct to attribute it as the motivating reason for it.

What tends to get obscured in such speculation is the question of motive. There is an important difference between declaring war in response to the actions of an Iranian backed militia or other group and declaring war as a means of uniting the country against a common enemy. It may be that the latter is a consequence of the former but that does not mean it would be correct to attribute it as the motivating reason for it. — Fooloso4

I agree. I don't think it will help Biden if we get plunged into another MidEast adventure. Quite the opposite.

Of course there is reason to assume it can help Biden. Israel wants the US to go to war with Iran. Israel holds great sway in American domestic politics.

This isn't rocket science.

Of course there is reason to assume it can help Biden. — Tzeentch

War is often divisive. Since Vietnam American wars have not united us. Just the opposite. One reason some cite for their support of Trump is that they think he is responsible for keeping us out of war.

Biden supporters, aka Republicans in Congress, are now saber rattling, calling for attacks on Iran.

This isn't rocket science. — Tzeentch

And yet, still easy enough to get it exactly wrong.

Republicans — Fooloso4

Oh, sweet summer child.

And yet, still easy enough to get it exactly wrong. — Fooloso4

Robert Gates, the former defense secretary under President Obama, seemed to reiterate in an interview that aired Sunday night that he believes President Biden has been wrong on nearly every major foreign policy and national security issue over the past four decades.

Gates, who spent about three decades in the CIA, was introspective during an interview with CBS’ "60 Minutes," and was asked by Anderson Cooper, the correspondent, about his 2014 memoir titled, "Duty: Memoirs of a Secretary at War."

(2021)

:mask: 30Jan24 predictions:

• US courts will deny that a president or former president has "absolutely immunity" from criminal prosecution.

• By March/April, SCOTUS will uphold the "states' rights" to individually decide whether or not to disqualify Insurrectionist/Criminal-Defendent/Rapist-Defamer/Fraudster-1 from appearing on the 2024 federal election ballot pursuant to the 14th Amendment, Sec. 3 (Insurrection Clause) of the US Consitution.

• By 31Jan24, the Trump Org will be effectively dissolved in NY State by order of Justice Engoron and no less than $300 million USD (re: "ill-gotten gains") will be disgorged as well as Fraudster-1 (maybe Beavis & Butthead too) will be barred for life from the real estate industry in NY State. NB: Liquidations to commence soon in order to put up a $300 million or more cash bond that's required by law to Appeal the civil judgment – Loser-1 clearly isn't that liquid (thanks, Ms. Carroll! :clap: :kiss: :flower: Loser-1 also has to put up a total of $88.3 million in order to Appeal both her judgements too) – otherwise, without that combined half-billion in cash (USD), the collection agencies for NYS will slap enforceable liens on all defendents' personal & real properties asap and savage TF out of them like piranha. :wink: :party:

• As of 1Feb24 the "great business man" will be, in effect, cash poor whining squatting & shitting his old man diapers on a pile of fire-sale depreciating assets & compounding civil lawsuit debts ... So suddenly the upcoming GOP primary races are going to look pretty shaky even to the RNC, GOP senators & even a larger share of GOP-MAGA voters who might just stay home allowing Nikki Haley to be competitive in SC, etc.

• Btw, the J6 Conspiracy criminal trial in Wash. DC will conclude with a guilty verdict on all 4 felony counts by the end of August 2024 or sooner. I'm guessing (soon to be) Felon-1 will not be the GOP candidate by the Fall (or even by July).

The fact is: Republicans in Congress are saying we should attack Iran while Biden is looking for a diplomatic solution. Please explain how this is a cynical plot by Biden and/or Israel and neocons to get him elected.

It is not the neocons but the Evangelical Christian Right who are the most influential advocates for Israel. They are also the most influential advocates for Trump. For Christian Zionists Israel's war is all about the second coming of Jesus Christ.

Biden, like the rest of us, can get things wrong. The claim that I am responding to, and it is not one that you made, is that Biben will go to war in order to win the election. For example:

I'm just waiting for Sleepy Joe to go to war with Iran and blow up the Middle-East to salvage his chances at this election. — Tzeentch

First, your characterization of "a cynical plot" is markedly different from mine. I called it a perfect storm of perverse incentives, not a plot.

Next, you must understand that Trump is anti-establishment, and neither the neocons nor Israel (or the lobby) want him as president because of his isolationism. Of course these parties will happily use Trump to pressure Biden. Especially because the Israel lobby doesn't like Biden to begin with, so Trump isn't completely off the cards. Playing both sides is standard for these interest groups.

But Biden is clearly the easier one to control, and he's a neocon. Trump is a wild card and isolationist.

The Biden administration are the ones who gave Netanyahu cart blanche, and have been pointing fingers at Iran non-stop since the start of the conflict. Further, they've even circumvented congress to continue weapon sales to Israel, making the US complicit in Israel's crimes, which may very well be genocidal.

So it's clear Biden is trying to appease Israel, which may very well be what causes him to start this war - to cement support from the notoriously capricious lobby. If he acts like a stooge, the lobby will play him like a stooge and milk him for what he's worth.

If he refuses, the lobby will pressure him, quite possibly along with other interest groups who desire wider war, like the MIC, etc. And of course then the question is whether he caves or not. I think there's a good chance he does.

First, your characterization of "a cynical plot" is markedly different from mine. I called it a perfect storm of perverse incentives, not a plot. — Tzeentch

If Biden's incentive is to win the election by waging war, the attempt to carry that plan out would be a cynical plot.

Next, you must understand that Trump is anti-establishment — Tzeentch

Trump is anti anything that will not be to his benefit. Support of Israel is to his benefit when it comes to his base.

neither the neocons nor Israel (or the lobby) want him as president because of his isolationism. — Tzeentch

The neocons no longer play a significant role in American politics.

According to Wikipedia:

The largest pro-Israel lobbying group is Christians United for Israel with over seven million members.

The footnoted Wikipedia source is Fox News.

If you do not understand the importance of the Religious Right you cannot give a plausible analysis of the part Israel plays. They are pro-Israel Zionists.

With the indiscriminate killing in Gaza Biden is well aware that support for Netanyahu's Israel may be working against him with liberal, moderate, and independent voters.

Trump is anti anything that will not be to his benefit. Support of Israel is to his benefit when it comes to his base. — Fooloso4

No, that's too simple. Any American president has to "support" Israel. The question is what that support looks like.

It's not very likely Trump would support Israel in its current actions, simply because it would almost guarantee that the US will get embroiled in various wars in the Middle-East, and thus not serve Trump's isolationist views.

Israel/the lobby know that full well. They might use Trump, but the chance that they'll actually support him over Biden is very slim. But they will use Trump to pressure Biden for sure.

In fact, the Trump phenomenon may give the Biden administration room to get away with a lot, including another war in the Middle-East against Iran and/or its proxies.

The neocons no longer play a significant role in American politics. — Fooloso4

:brow: Disagreed. What do you think the US is doing in Ukraine?

If you do not understand the importance of the Religious Right you cannot give a plausible analysis of the part Israel plays. They are pro-Israel Zionists. — Fooloso4

Yes. The Israel lobby consists of various uncouth interest groups including Zionist Christians. I'm well-aware.

With the indiscriminate killing in Gaza Biden is well aware that support for Netanyahu's Israel may be working against him with liberal, moderate, and independent voters. — Fooloso4

The question is whether that will weigh heavier than the lobby's influence. But yes, Biden is obviously between a rock and a hard place in that regard - that's part of the aforementioned perfect storm.

and thus not serve Trump's isolationist views. — Tzeentch

How do you know his views aren't more aligned with Russia's? There may not be outright "collusion", but it damn sure looks like it on paper.

Israel/the lobby know that full well. They might use Trump, but the chance that they'll actually support him over Biden is very slim. But they will use Trump to pressure Biden for sure. — Tzeentch

So this is a canard of the Left. Why is it that Leftists support Islamist causes? It's a rhetorical strategy to malign any policy against hostile actors in the region as Israel's bidding. Why wouldn't America want to support an ally, while at the same time support their own interests (shipping/cargo/trade/resources) in the region? It would be foolish to let Iran make mischief unabated. Iran is trying to show people like yourself how powerful they are, and Leftists go weak in the knees rooting for it, but in a "Because Israel is bad" sort of rhetorical ploy. If Israel is bad, then Iran's actions must go unattended, is pretty odd argument as whole, but fits right in with a certain worldview for sure. I call it Lefitst. Call it whatever you want. It's certainly not "Idealist", unless you mean the corrupt UN (which lets countries with human rights violations unironically cry foul).

In fact, the Trump phenomenon may give the Biden administration room to get away with a lot, including another war in the Middle-East against Iran and/or its proxies. — Tzeentch

I mean, this could go the other way. If Biden doesn't do anything in the Middle East, Trump will use it as a case that he is the backchannel savior (ala Nixon during Vietnam).