I mean, this could go the other way. If Biden doesn't do anything in the Middle East, Trump will use it as a case that he is the backchannel savior (ala Nixon during Vietnam). — schopenhauer1

The Biden administration is doing what Israel wants - giving Israel cart blanche, blocking Security Council resolutions and continuing to funnel weapons and ammunition to Israel, even circumventing Congress if it has to, etc.

The "pressure" the administration puts is not actual pressure at all. It's simply what Biden has to do to avoid looking like a complete stooge, and Israel understands this is how it works.

Trump seems to me very much against this type of 'final solution' business in the Middle-East, so I personally find it very hard to believe he would try to profile himself as an even greater Middle-East hawk.


Meanwhile, the Biden administration hasn't stopped pointing fingers at Iran since the Oct. 7th attacks, so there's probably a lot of people wondering why he hasn't gone to war with Iran yet. In for a penny, in for a pound.

blocking Security Council resolutions and continuing to funnel weapons and ammunition to Israel, even circumventing Congress if it has to. — Tzeentch

Why do you assume the US cares what the Security Council says? Or why do you think it is by default supposed to?

The "pressure" the administration puts is not actual pressure at all. It's simply what Biden has to do to avoid looking like a complete stooge, and Israel understands this is how it works. — Tzeentch

The fact is that the US has interests in the region, and support their ally in the region. You don't have to look for old-school conspiracy theories of AIPAC for this. It's a worldview of balances of power. Iran represents something against US interests, especially with their use of proxies. Netanyahu is certainly an asshole, I grant that, but Biden simply doesn't want to make that kind of decision in the midst of this. I will say too that Israel has to get its shit together by finding a new strategy. Biden can only work with who he has got. Other than getting the hostages back, I see no way Israel will want to keep Hamas as a neighbor with their threat, and the US gets this threat.

Trump seems to me very much against this type of 'final solution' business in the Middle-East, so I personally find it very hard to believe he would try to profile himself as an even greater Middle-East hawk. — Tzeentch

I would bet Trump would do anything he can to win Evangelical support.. So if Biden looks weak, he will just say that he can do better, whatever the case may be. Also, he is besties with Netanyahu. Don't count him out either for using war for his gain. He hasn't done it yet, but I wouldn't count it out. Saying that he is strictly an "isolationist" is believing he is principled or ideological to a fault. He is self-serving to a fault- there is a difference. Nixon went to China when it suited him. Nixon was virulently anti-communist when it served him. Etc. In fact, Nixon was able to stop the North Vietnamese delegation from taking the offer at the Paris Accords in '68 because Nixon wanted to look like the person who stopped the war. Trump isn't Nixon. No, he's worse.

Also, you didn't address any of this:

So this is a canard of the Left. Why is it that Leftists support Islamist causes? It's a rhetorical strategy to malign any policy against hostile actors in the region as Israel's bidding. Why wouldn't America want to support an ally, while at the same time support their own interests (shipping/cargo/trade/resources) in the region? It would be foolish to let Iran make mischief unabated. Iran is trying to show people like yourself how powerful they are, and Leftists go weak in the knees rooting for it, but in a "Because Israel is bad" sort of rhetorical ploy. If Israel is bad, then Iran's actions must go unattended, is pretty odd argument as whole, but fits right in with a certain worldview for sure. I call it Lefitst. Call it whatever you want. It's certainly not "Idealist", unless you mean the corrupt UN (which lets countries with human rights violations unironically cry foul). — schopenhauer1

It's not very likely Trump would support Israel in its current actions, simply because it would almost guarantee that the US will get embroiled in various wars in the Middle-East, and thus not serve Trump's isolationist views.

Israel/the lobby know that full well. They might use Trump, but the chance that they'll actually support him over Biden is very slim. But they will use Trump to pressure Biden for sure. — Tzeentch

Remember the "Trump Peace Plan"? It was a proposal "negotiated" by Jared Kushner and Netanyahu, that gave Netanyahu what he wanted, and virtually nothing for Palestinians. Further, a large majority of evangelical Christians are Trump supporters, and they are extremely pro-Israel because of their view that God gave them this land.

... various wars in the Middle-East, and thus not serve Trump's isolationist views. — Tzeentch

You are talking about Trump as if he is someone with principles. He is isolationist only to the extent he thinks it benefits him. He has not taken a clear stand on what he would do in the face of escalating conflict.

Israel/the lobby know that full well. — Tzeentch

The Religious Right, the most powerful faction of this lobby is guided by revelation not reason. They are actually eagerly looking forward to this final prophesied holy war.

Yes. The Israel lobby consists of various uncouth interest groups including Zionist Christians. I'm well-aware. — Tzeentch

What you do not seem to be aware of is just how much power and influence they have over Trump and what is no longer the Republican Party but now the Christian Party of Trump. They have been willing to look the other way when it comes to what Trump says and does, but this may be non-negotiable.

You got this much right: it is not rocket science. Unlike rocket science there are too many variables and indeterminacies to calculate.

The Religious Right, the most powerful faction of this lobby is guided by revelation not reason. They are actually eagerly looking forward to this final prophesied holy war. — Fooloso4

And also, while the Right doesn't have a whole lot of fondness for Jews, they really don't like Muslims, so the enemy of their enemy is now their friend.

You seem intent on linking escalation in the Middle-East to Trump, via the Israel lobby. Regardless of what I think of Trump, I don't think that's a serious argument. It's a bit cartoonish.

I haven't figured out if Trump is fully "self-serving" in foreign policy or "Russia-serving". If it is Russia-serving, indeed he may have to tone down against Russia's interests in the Mid East. If he is self-serving, then any strong man (including Netanyahu) is fair game to admire and support.

You seem intent on linking escalation in the Middle-East to Trump, — Tzeentch

Nope. I don't know what will happen and do not know what if any role Trump will play.

What I do know is that you have left out some key players that play an important role in determining what will happen.

I haven't figured out if Trump is fully "self-serving" in foreign policy or "Russia-serving". I — schopenhauer1

Perhaps he thinks they are the same.

He says that he likes winners. If it is strong man against strong man he likes whoever he thinks is winning. Unless he thinks this is against his interests.

And also, while the Right doesn't have a whole lot of fondness for Jews, they really don't like Muslims, so the enemy of their enemy is now their friend. — RogueAI

The whole thing is very peculiar. The Evangelicals have be seduced by power. Apparently, they do not think that the power of God is enough. Not ever their Saviors - both the old one and the new improved version are not enough. They have long desired and plotted to seize power. Israel is nothing more than a means to that end. They have no regard for the Jews. Together with the Muslims and liberals and LGBT and everyone else who is not what they themselves pretend to be will be left behind in the Rapture.

Speaking of ridiculous...

https://www.cnn.com/2024/01/30/media/taylor-swift-super-bowl-right-wing-conspiracy/index.html

Unfortunately it doesn't seem as surreal to me these days in the US, as it would have seemed to me before 2016.

Btw, the J6 Conspiracy criminal trial in Wash. DC will conclude with a guilty verdict on all 4 felony counts by the end of August 2024 or sooner. I'm guessing (soon to be) Felon-1 will not be the GOP candidate by the Fall (or even by July). — 180 Proof

"You know, we've got a lot of theories, we just don't have the evidence."
~Rudy Giuliani, Co-Conspirator-1

"You gotta be kidding ... This is the clown show!" ~Rusty Bowers, former Arizona Speaker of the House of Representatives & Trump supporter

What I do know is that you have left out some key players that play an important role in determining what will happen. — Fooloso4

How will Trump influence whether Biden goes to war with Iran and its proxies or not?

How will Trump influence whether Biden goes to war with Iran and its proxies or not? — Tzeentch

A non sequitur. Why would you think or think that I think Trump will influence Biden's decision?

Because you keep talking about Trump. :lol:

Because you keep talking about Trump. — Tzeentch

You are lost and I am not going to draw a map for you or make the connections from one post to the next.

I agree:
• SCOTUS will deny a former President has absolute immunity
• Trump will be cash constrained at some point this year (not as early as you say)

I disagree:
• that Engeron will dissolve the Trump Org in NY; I expect only a fine, commensurate with his savings on interest due to receiving interest rates more favorable than his finances warranted. This will contribute to Trump's cash constraints.

• that Trump won't be the GOP nominee. This is because 95% of delegates to the GOP nominating convention are committed to vote based on the primaries. They would be freed only if Trump were to drop out of the race - and that won't happen.

• that the J6 conspiracy trial will have concluded before the election, but even if it is - pending appeals will keep him out of prison. If he's elected, he'll pardon himself and put an end to that.

• that the J6 conspiracy trial will have concluded before the election, but even if it is - pending appeals will keep him out of prison. If he's elected, he'll pardon himself and put an end to that. — Relativist

He can't do that for the Georgia case.

↪180 Proof I agree:
• SCOTUS will deny a former President has absolute immunity
• Trump will be cash constrained at some point this year (not as early as you say)

I disagree:
• that Engeron will dissolve the Trump Org in NY; I expect only a fine, commensurate with his savings on interest due to receiving interest rates more favorable than his finances warranted. This will contribute to Trump's cash constraints.

• that Trump won't be the GOP nominee. This is because 95% of delegates to the GOP nominating convention are committed to vote based on the primaries. They would be freed only if Trump were to drop out of the race - and that won't happen.

• that the J6 conspiracy trial will have concluded before the election, but even if it is - pending appeals will keep him out of prison. If he's elected, he'll pardon himself and put an end to that. — Relativist

We shall see soon enough. :up:

Agreed- but the appeals will take a while, and (if elected) SCOTUS will find some excuse (possibly a good one) to keep him out of prison while in office. It would, however, be the strongest possible case for an impeachment+removal (a truly "high crime") but of course- GOP still wouldn't convict.

Suggestion: let's vote against him, so these things don't come to pass.

Suggestion: let's vote against him — Relativist

Would that I could.

SCOTUS will deny a former President has absolute immunity — Relativist

Then he will appeal to a higher authority - Donald J Trump.

From a video on Truth Social he posted, "God Made Trump". The narrator begins:

On June 14, 1946, God looked down on his planned paradise and said: ‘I need a caretaker.’ So God gave us Trump. God had to have someone willing to go into the den of vipers. Call out the fake news for their tongues as sharp as a serpent’s. The poison of vipers is on their lips. So God made Trump.

God said, “I will need someone who will be strong and courageous. Who will not be afraid or terrified of wolves when they attack. A man who cares for the flock. A shepherd to mankind who won’t ever leave or forsake them.

If they do not side with Trump and God the Supreme Court will have revealed that they too are wolves in sheep's clothing. Only those who stand with Trump/God, pledging absolute fielty to him/Him, will have any authority on Earth or in Heaven.

This is said in jest, but only in part. Even if he complies with the Court's decision he will continue his seditious rants. How far is the flock willing to follow in undermining law and order and replacing it with the Law and Order to be engraved on the tablets of Trump? The Word in its new and improved incarnation?

:up:

So, the Republicans are impeaching the Homeland Security secretary, on Trumped-up grounds, while at the same time their leader, Donald Trump, pushes them to torpedo the solution to the border security problem that this Secretary is being accused of neglecting, while in reality he has been involved with a bi-partisan solution.

Democrats... criticized the impeachment proceedings as politically motivated, pointing out that GOP lawmakers were trying to oust Mayorkas for supposedly neglecting to secure the southern border, while at the same time opposing a bipartisan package under negotiation in the Senate that would seek to improve border security. — Washington Post

It's astounding, the levels of hypocrisy, doubletalk and duplicitiousness the MAGA will sink to.

Even Jonathan Turley has said impeachment is unwarranted.

Of course it is. It's what happens when halfwits like Marjorie Taylor Greene are in charge of the henhouse. It's never about governance, only petty point-scoring.

addendum to:

In case you haven't been paying attention:

https://thephilosophyforum.com/discussion/comment/877051

Senators grilled the CEOs of Meta, TikTok, Snap, Discord and X Wednesday in a heated hearing about harm posed to teens and kids online. — The Hill

How about grilling the CEOs of the very many major gun manufacturing companies about the horrors wrought by their wares? You know, Remington, Smith and Wesson, and the others? In addition to gun suicides there are also the many thousands of 'young people' shot and wounded or killed, many while attending school. But no, strangely enough- guns don't kill people, but social media kills people. And a much less controversial target, to boot.

Following up on the question of whether Trump will comply with Supreme Court decisions.

It may seem improbable but THIS
may the writing on the wall of what is to come from the Republican Party:

Rep. Chip Roy (R-Texas), who has said Texas should ignore the Supreme Court’s order allowing federal authorities to remove barbed wire along the southern border, compared the decision Tuesday to the 1857 high court ruling that upheld slavery.

Roy is among a number of Republicans who have described immigrants crossing the border as an “invasion” and said during a House hearing Tuesday that he will not let “statute books” stop him from defending his home.

Governor Greg Abbott issued a declaration arguing he has the legal power to overrule federal authorities in case of an “invasion.” What this means in practice is that he is claiming and acting on premise that the state and not the Supreme Court gets to interpret Federal law.

Shouldn’t be surprise anyone, they’re a party of secessionists. 149 of them voted not to recognise the result of the last Presidential election. They’re spoiling for a fight but I hope it’s one they eventually lose.