I think there's a non-trivial chance that it wouldn't have happened under Trump — Tzeentch

Ukraine has been fighting against Russia's occupation of Crimea since 2014, a move Trump praised at the time, and actually parrotted Putin's assertions that Crimea is Russian. What makes you think Putin would have hesitated to attack Ukraine if Trump were still in office? Trump's isolationism, and criticism of NATO, would have been the best possible situation for Putin.

What makes you think Putin would have hesitated to attack Ukraine if Trump were still in office? Trump's isolationism, and criticism of NATO, would have been the best possible situation for Putin. — Relativist

I don't think the Russians wanted to invade Ukraine at all. They did so because they felt they had no other option. If the US hadn't pressed its wishes to incorporate Ukraine, this war could have been avoided entirely.

That project sought the incorporation of Ukraine into NATO, and zero attention was paid to Russia's many objections, who spoke about red lines, fundamental security threats, etc. — Tzeentch

His administration is committed to Ukraine joining NATO despite Putin's rhetoric. It is a defensive move in response to Putin's aggression.

I'm not aware of any members of the Trump administration handing out cookies on the Maidan. — Tzeentch

Right. The Maidan conflict predates Trump and cannot be blamed on Biden.

To many people's dismay, Putin and Trump kinda liked each other. — Tzeentch

To many people's dismay, Trump aligned himself with several autocratic leaders. This is why he did not press the issue of Ukraine. For him the issue was to implicate Biden. If elected the fear is he will side with Putin against Ukraine, against NATO, and against anyone and anything that stands in the way of the aligned autocrats.

What I'm trying to make clear is that Biden has been a disaster in his own right. — Tzeentch

Except you haven't. The post hoc blame game should not be mistaken for insightful political analysis.

the US blocked UN Security Council resolutions calling for a cease fire, and expressed its unconditional support for Israel. — Tzeentch

This is quite different than:

The US has blocked a cease fire several times already. — Tzeentch

A resolution calling for a cease fire is not a cease fire. Both sides in the conflict must agree to a cease fire. It is not as if they did and the US blocked it.




.

A resolution calling for a cease fire is not a cease fire. Both sides in the conflict must agree to a cease fire. It is not as if they did and the US blocked it. — Fooloso4

Apparently Putin has been fishing on back channels for a cease fire since practically the beginning of the invasion. He's still doing it, but in public he never says anything like that. US military intelligence has assessed it as part of some strategy to cause confusion on the battlefield?

Anyway, at this point the Russian economy has become dependent on the war. It grew by about 3% last year in spite of the heavy sanctions. This is partly because of oil sales to China and India, and partly because they have a booming war economy. So it wouldn't be to Putin's advantage to stop the war in Ukraine. He wants people at home to feel like everything is fine, and it's not going to be without that boost to the economy from the war.

The Maidan conflict predates Trump and cannot be blamed on Biden. — Fooloso4

Biden was VP during the Maidan, and Ukraine was his portfolio. Of course he was involved. The entire current administration was involved in the Maidan. Ukraine is their project, and it crashed and burned in a most spectacular fashion, sadly taking Ukraine itself along with it.

What I'm trying to make clear is that Biden has been a disaster in his own right. — Tzeentch

Except you haven't. — Fooloso4

You don't think the Biden administration has been an unmitigated disaster? Ok.

I suppose it will forever remain a mystery to you then why people vote Trump.

The entire current administration was involved in the Maidan. — Tzeentch

Probably not.

You can look it up; Biden, Nuland, Sullivan, Blinken, they all were.

You can look it up; Biden, Nuland, Sullivan, Blinken, they all were. — Tzeentch

We've been through this already. I'm not going back through. :wink:

War is always profitable ... for some.

He wants people at home to feel like everything is fine, and it's not going to be without that boost to the economy from the war. — frank

How do the people feel? How will they feel long term? How closely aligned are the perception and the reality?

How do the people feel? How will they feel long term? How closely aligned are the perception and the reality? — Fooloso4

I don't know. You'd have to ask a Russian resident.

Biden was VP during the Maidan, and Ukraine was his portfolio. Of course he was involved. — Tzeentch

Being "involved" might mean several different things. What I said is that he cannot be blamed. Are you putting the blame on him?

The entire current administration was involved in the Maidan. Ukraine is their project, and it crashed and burned in a most spectacular fashion, sadly taking Ukraine itself along with it. — Tzeentch

More accusations without substantive evidence. Are you blaming the entire current administration?
Are you claiming that without the US involvement there would not have been a conflict?

You don't think the Biden administration has been an unmitigated disaster? Ok. — Tzeentch

No. What could Trump or anyone else have done do prevent or fix the messes we are in?

I suppose it will forever remain a mystery to you then why people vote Trump. — Tzeentch

Not at all. I can sum it up in two words. Ignorance and resentment. Many see him as a savior or hero who will save us.

I don't know. You'd have to ask a Russian resident. — frank

I don't know either. The answer we are likely to get from them will depend on whether Putin is listening. But whatever their perception might be it might not be a good measure of how the economy is doing or will do in the next few years.

It would be interesting to hear what Putin really thinks about the economy. That it can continue to sustain the war might be enough for now.

Are you blaming the entire current administration? — Fooloso4

Yea, that's beyond obvious. I don't know how anyone can seriously deny US involvement in the Maidan coup and the dumpster fire that it turned into today. I attribute primary (though not all) responsibility to the US, and the people in the US that orchestrated it are sitting in the White House right now.

Are you not familiar with the Nuland-Pyatt phonecall?

For extra reference, from 2015, by the way:

I don't think the Russians wanted to invade Ukraine at all. They did so because they felt they had no other option. If the US hadn't pressed its wishes to incorporate Ukraine, this war could have been avoided entirely. — Tzeentch

Nonsense. Putin couldn't countenance a pro-West Ukraine. Ukraine has been moving toward the West since 2004, when the pro-Russian President (Yanukovych) lost to Yushchenko. Yushchenko began the push to join the EU and NATO, which has continued. Putin's invasion was inevitable.

Putin couldn't countenance a pro-West Ukraine. — Relativist

Of course. And that's why they brought it up repeatedly in search for a solution. They were ignored.

Putin's invasion wasn't inevitable at all. All it would have taken was for the West to take Russia's security concerns seriously. At least enter into serious dialogue. None of that ever happened. They pushed the Russians, probably because they thought Russia was weak and Putin was bluffing. It turns out they weren't.

Ukraine is primarily the West's fault. Had Ukraine remained committed to neutrality, and had the US not sought to change Ukraine's neutral status, the entire conflict could have been avoided.

It will all be over if Trump wins.

Ukraine is primarily the West's fault. Had Ukraine remained committed to neutrality, — Tzeentch

No, it's Russia's fault. Ukraine was neutral when Russia invaded in 2014. Russia had signed the Budapest Memorandum in 1994 (along with the US and UK), committing to respect the independence and sovereignty of Ukraine in exchange for their giving up the nukes. Independence and sovereignty gives them the right to see economic alliances. They were seeking such economic alliances with the West (seeking to join the EU), while remaining "non-bloc" (militarily neutral). Ukraine was driven toward military alignment with the West in response to Russian aggression. You're blaming the West for failing to appease Russia's aggression.

, it seems unlikely that Russia will attack NATO countries. They're more likely to insert covert operatives/agents in such cases.

That project sought the incorporation of Ukraine into NATO, and zero attention was paid to Russia's many objections, who spoke about red lines, fundamental security threats, etc. — Tzeentch

It's less so about NATO in particular and more so about what the Kremlin can control. That said, NATO is the most visible limit to the Kremlin's control, and hence what they talk about. Their officials have gone as far as saying that Russia is doomed for destruction unless they follow the (present) Kremlin.

You underestimate the (under)current of sentiments against the regressive authoritarian anti-democratic trajectory Putin has put Russia on. When this sort of down-slope happens to the largest country in the world, a technically developed country with resources, the danger can't be ignored (unless chosen to). As a result of the Ukrainians looking elsewhere, the Kremlin has come pretty close to portraying Kyiv as traitors (they went with Nazis).

I don't know how anyone can seriously deny US involvement in the Maidan coup and the dumpster fire that it turned into today. — Tzeentch

Are you aware that this is a standard Trumpian rhetorical tactic, claiming that everyone knows or everyone says or everyone thinks?

I attribute primary (though not all) responsibility to the US, and the people in the US that orchestrated it are sitting in the White House right now. — Tzeentch

Again, an allegation without substantive evidence is not a substitute for an argument.

Rather than posting an hour plus video how about explaining in your own words or at least a transcript of why the Ukraine is the West's fault, and specifically why Biden is to blame.

it seems unlikely that Russia will attack NATO countries. They're more likely to insert covert operatives/agents in such cases. — jorndoe

Why do you say that?

, @Tzeentch is just going to recite Mearsheimer again. :)

Why do you say that? — frank

I'm just thinking that the Kremlin can't be that dumb. :) Then again, it's just conjecture on my part. I suppose they could make it look like they were attacked first?

They're more likely to inserting covert operatives/agents in such cases. — Dec 25, 2023

I'm just thinking that the Kremlin can't be that dumb. — jorndoe

If the US has left NATO it would make a little more sense. I think you missed our discussion about how the US congress has just passed a law to make it harder for a US president to exit NATO. They did that because Trump is expected to try.

Once the US has left NATO, it will make more sense to use funding from oil sales to enlarge Russia's territory. Maybe Poland first.

The most direct cause of Crimea 2014 was the 2014 Revolution. It was a loss of control and influence for the Kremlin. Ukrainians explicitly started looking elsewhere, while the Kremlin circle has propagandized that Ukraine isn't a real country.

you missed our discussion about — frank

Apologies, yes, the comment assumed the US is still in NATO.

By the way, this stuff is also on-topic over here: Ukraine Crisis

Are you aware that this is a standard Trumpian rhetorical tactic, claiming that everyone knows or everyone says or everyone thinks? — Fooloso4

I'm not claming such things. I just don't think it's a serious argument.

Also, I think your attempt at likening me to Trump is really immature. :brow:

I don't know how anyone can seriously deny US involvement in the Maidan coup — Tzeentch

Sure, there was "US involvement" (+ other involvement) supporting ...

Protesters opposed what they saw as widespread government corruption and abuse of power, the influence of oligarchs, police brutality, and human rights violations.^(29)(30) Repressive anti-protest laws fuelled further anger.⁽²⁹⁾ — Revolution of Dignity (Wikipedia)

(There's a bit more at Euromaidan (Wikipedia).)

Part of this stuff was about shedding the shackles of the dominant (regressing) northern neighbor, whom you'll notice have some of those same problems the Euromaidan protests were about. Protests/assembly have more or less been stomped out by the Kremlin. The Ukrainians said "No", looked elsewhere, backed by the UN (ES-11/6 and prior), and have gone through moves addressing some of those problems in negotiation with the EU. I'd have thought it difficult in wartime, but they have made some improvements. They're trying, while being bombed. The Kremlin orders the bombing, and their trying is on another path.

A covert conspiracy for Ukraine to become a modern democracy, eh? :D "The Kremlin involvement" was of a different nature.

A covert conspiracy for Ukraine to become a modern democracy, eh? — jorndoe

You use the term 'covert conspiracy' presumably to ridicule the idea, however the US has been on a constant tour to do exactly that: toppling regimes, and even legitimate governments, in pursuit of its own interest, leaving utter chaos in its wake.

If the idea sounds ridiculous to you, it must be because you don't know your own country's history very well.

Also, I think your attempt at likening me to Trump is really immature. — Tzeentch

Pointing to the same argumentative tactics that someone uses is not likening you to anyone.

Of course it is. You don't like the fact that I criticize Biden without trying to defend Trump, so you're trying to find a way to lump me into the Trump camp anyway by calling me "Trumpian". It's childish and transparent.

You don't think the Biden administration has been an unmitigated disaster? Ok. — Tzeentch

What disastrous things has it done?

I really don't care that you criticize Biden. What I care about is reasoned argument. It has become evident that will not be forthcoming.