When was the last time the region was at peace? — frank

My guess would be around the time before 1914. It was Ottoman territory for about 400 years before then, and I think Ottoman rule was relatively undisrupted before WWI.

Ottoman rule was relatively undisrupted before WWI. — Ciceronianus

:up: That's because they kicked ass.

When was the last time the region was at peace? — frank

When the land was ruled by Ottoman Syria until the early 20th century, just before the rise of Zionism, the national movement of the Jewish people seeking to recreate a Jewish state in Palestine, and return the original homeland of the Jewish people.

Ottoman Syria

When the land was ruled by Ottoman Syria until the early 20th century, just before the rise of Zionism, the national movement of the Jewish people seeking to recreate a Jewish state in Palestine, and return the original homeland of the Jewish people. — javi2541997

:up: And it would appear that Israel, the outcome of Zionism, is here to stay, in part because they can't be attacked without attacking the USA.

Definitely true. It's just that changing everything to a nuanced form was more convoluted and less clear in clarifying the point.

That's because they kicked ass. — frank

That they did. Especially after they took Constantinople in 1453.

When it was united under Ottoman rule. So see, Erdogan deserves a Nobel peace prize!

Although, I would point out that it was peaceful for longer under Roman rule, so Berlusconi probably is owed one too for his efforts to bring the old Caligula spirit back to Italy. (And yes, even the Ceasars could admit that "mistakes were made," in Roman-Jewish relations, but there were some long stretches of peace aside from the catastrophic wars).

Errr... Didn't the Romans have to continually expand to bankroll their government? The roman empire was one big expansionist war until it started to collapse but admittedly had a decent view on integration.

When it was united under Ottoman rule. So see, Erdogan deserves a Nobel peace prize! — Count Timothy von Icarus

:grin: Any successful warlord deserves a peace prize. That's the great contradiction of war: that it unites and establishes peace.

Especially after they took Constantinople in 1453. — Ciceronianus

One of the most important dates in human history. :up:

Seems like a lot of Israelis don't want to solve the problem - as long as they're happy, everyone else can go suck a lemon. Very disappointing mindset from them. — flannel jesus

Well, if we really agree that this is the end goal, it seems that the destruction of everyone else, except Israel, will be a reasonable strategy to follow. This could be a 'solution' to the problem. So, Iraq, Syria, Iran...

Seems like it's just unbridled hate on both sides. People suck. — flannel jesus

It is a question of how much hate by how many. Of course there are those who cheer attacks on civilians, I was really amazed by the people who do not show hate, on both sides, sorrow, fear, yes, but the fact that even one Israeli Newspaper prints that "Opinion | Israelis Must Maintain Their Humanity Even When Their Blood Boils" - Haaretz this is exemplary.

https://www.haaretz.com/opinion/2023-10-11/ty-article-opinion/.premium/israelis-must-maintain-their-humanity-even-when-their-blood-boils/0000018b-1e18-d465-abbb-1ebe62c80000

Even the United States has expressed concern about cutting off Gaza from water and food supplies. Here is US Secretary of State, Blinken:

“Our humanity – the value that we place on human life and human dignity – that’s what makes us who we are. And we count them among our greatest strengths. “That’s why it’s so important to take every possible precaution to avoid harming civilians,” he said. — Jerusalem Post

Whoever is in control, it is not the people on both sides, it looks like, and I may be wrong, that it is a powerful minority engaged in manipulating events and opinions. It looks to me like vast sea of ordinary Israeli and Palestinian civilians are pawns and victims of the machinations of outside forces behind the scenes.

Hamas, for example, had some unlikely support:

helped finance the Palestinian Islamist movement as a “counterweight” to the secularists and leftists of the Palestine Liberation Organization and the Fatah party, led by Yasser Arafat (who himself referred to Hamas as “a creature of Israel.”) — The Intercept

Holy shit Israel Tells U.N. that all of North Gaza (over 1M people) has 24 Hours to Move South

Iran says crimes against Palestinians to receive response from axis

https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-says-crimes-against-palestinians-receive-response-axis-2023-10-12/

I find this perspective useful : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lbSFJaFuWU0

He neglects to mention who funded Hamas, and the Hamas - Fatah war. No matter.

Short memories and short fuses.

Holy shit Israel Tells U.N. that all of North Gaza (over 1M people) has 24 Hours to Move South — Maw

Reuters is more accessible:

Reuters — Reuters

He did not specify, but the Axis of Resistance refers to an alliance among Iran, Palestinian militant groups, Syria, the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah and other factions. — Reuters

From the above link.

All these governments are very careful how they use their military resources. They will talk, but only Israel has taken any action so far. As usual, the USA is providing ammunition. Iran has its proxies which have not really responded yet. Iran does not have to get directly involved as far as armed personnel. Syria is not going to give another excuse to be attacked.

The most likely outcome I think is for Israel to continue the status quo, however, its position is somewhat disadvantaged now, possibly due to their own errors or strategy whatever you may want to call it. Apparently Israel had the right to defend itself but not the ability. That is worrying.

The real win here for the Iranian side is the re-arrangement of the geopolitical balance in the region.

More strategy ahead:

Kobi Michael, a senior researcher at the Tel Aviv-based Institute for National Security Studies (INSS), says he believes that Iran aims to create “a reality of war in order to exhaust Israeli society, in order to exhaust the Israel Defense Forces.” — CNN

power struggle while people die

Perhaps. But if they're telling 1.5 million people to move to the south of Gaza, in order to render it dust, something might happen. Israel confirmed (via Haaretz) that:

Military advisor: Over six days, Israel dropped more bombs on Gaza than the U.S. did over a year in Afghanistan

If this continues, I do not know about Iran, but Hezbollah may be forced to act. Otherwise, how can they say they represent the Palestinians? I know they are worried about a full scale war in Lebanon, and that they want to take care of the refugees there.

But if they do nothing, the Lebanese supporters of Hezbollah may massively riot.

And sure, nobody there wants an escalation, with the US ships in the area and all that. But motions are being put in place that could light a regional bomb. Very, very dangerous.

Israel could de-escalate somewhat. That's not what they're doing.

We'll see.

Kobi Michael, a senior researcher at the Tel Aviv-based Institute for National Security Studies (INSS), says he believes that Iran aims to create “a reality of war in order to exhaust Israeli society, in order to exhaust the Israel Defense Forces. — CNN

It would be very convenient for Israel to cast this as a war between two sovereign nations instead of between oppressor and oppressed (or at least a terrorist org. that apse I from that oppression). I have doubts about Iran or Hezvollah being involved in the original attacks (bad on info that's publicly available) but they might get involved now.

And then when they don't whatever happens to them is their own fault of course. "At least we gave warning" and "that's more than Hamas does" in order to pretend it's not a war crime.

It may be that the practice of doing nothing but sending weapons to Ukraine has sent a message that the US will not directly intervene as in Iraq or Vietnam.

Israel could de-escalate somewhat. That's not what they're doing. — Manuel

There are lots of things both parties could do and should do. De-escalate, engage in a ceasefire, hostage negotiations, allow humanitarian corridors, but there is the fact that both sides are locked into a course of action that is dictated by their own goals and beliefs, or to be more precise, the powers that be in Israel, Hamas and Iran are committed to a certain set of goals and actions.

We can only watch and hope for new, stable, status quo.

Psychological Aspects of the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict: A Systematic Review
There is this: https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/26511933/

It would be very convenient for Israel to cast this as a war between two sovereign nations instead of between oppressor and oppressed (or at least a terrorist org. that apse I from that oppression) — Benkei

If you are talking about convenience, or opportunism, then it does make sense to say Iran was involved, although it makes sense to assume Iran had some role in some of the training at some point, given their public statements of support for Hams and the of covert operations on their soil. As for the campaign to "exhaust Israeli society" I leave you to judge probable that is. Certainly the Gaza is being exhausted as we speak.

Apparently nations are built on trade, that trade includes human lives as well, I think now.

From the Jerusalem Post:

Israel’s leaders are conspicuously absent, either remaining silent or too arrogant. Citizens, as well as diaspora Jews, have been raising funds, purchasing equipment, as well as food, clothing, and even weapons for the IDF and its soldiers. While this is commendable, why isn’t Israel ensuring that all of its soldiers’ families receive information about their whereabouts? Why are some soldiers scrounging for equipment? — Jerusalem Post

We learn

Just watched Pierce Morgan interviewing Ben Shapiro, Ben Shapiro seems to think that these terrorists are worse than everything else. The current hysteria has enabled a selective amnesia of sorts.

...
..so you blame Israel for Hamas' barbarity.

Ben Shapiro — Ben Shapiro on Twitter

The Zionist groups of Irgun and Lehi reverted to their 1937–1939 strategy of indiscriminate attacks by placing bombs and throwing grenades into crowded places such as bus stops, shopping centers and markets. — Wikipedia

So whom do we blame for these groups barbarity? Unfortunately barbarity is a feature of human society. Or maybe it is a bug.

The problem is that selective amnesia especially about history is not a basis for basing an opinion on. This is distortion of the truth.

The idea of revenge may be an useful motivator for the soldiers and militants alike, military objectives are different from revenge, although it may be factored in. The danger is that revenge may divert from military objectives and may be counter productive in the long run.

I maintain that there are crimes of abundance and there are crimes of hunger, and we have not only brought Gaza to the brink of starvation, we have brought it to a state of collapse. Always in the name of security. How much security did we get? Where will another round of revenge take us? — The Guardian

It's clearly an act of forced displacement, which is indeed a war crime. The problem is that almost all of International Humanitarian Law (IHL) has a clause of 'military necessity', which is what Israel has always put forward to legitimise its actions.

Rule 129. The Act of Displacement

A. Parties to an international armed conflict may not deport or forcibly transfer the civilian population of an occupied territory, in whole or in part, unless the security of the civilians involved or imperative military reasons so demand.

B. Parties to a non-international armed conflict may not order the displacement of the civilian population, in whole or in part, for reasons related to the conflict, unless the security of the civilians involved or imperative military reasons so demand. — IHL

Legally speaking, all Israel has to do is make a case for military necessity, and it doesn't even have to be a particularly good one.

IHL is pretty much a paper tiger anyway, but I thought it might be useful to understand how Israel covers its bases.

He's simplistically boiled down the issue so that he can take the opportunity to criticise his rival to the world. "Give Palestine independence and sovereignty" is OF COURSE ideal, but how do you do that without putting Israel at even further risk?

Nah, that's much more true of the early Empire. After Trajan the boundaries don't really expand, only shrink, but that's 359 years before the Western Empire is generally accepted to have bought it, 1,336 years before the Eastern Empire was destroyed.

The Romans very much shifted from external wars of conquest to endless civil wars to control the current boundaries. They continued to skirmish with Parthia in that period, but aside from that? After the Diaspora they also had a long period where Germans were only a minor issue as well, and they would be an issue as migrants, conquers, and looters, not as peoples to be conquered.

As you can see the boundaries are pretty much set by 117 AD. https://www.reddit.com/media?url=https%3A%2F%2Fpreview.redd.it%2F3ns316ykoei51.png%3Fauto%3Dwebp%26s%3D68175b728ff078a772e698d2be807caca412e146

He's simplistically boiled down the issue so that he can take the opportunity to criticise his rival to the world. — flannel jesus

Well, he just told reliable facts. I think he wasn't meant to criticise the Western world only.

"Give Palestine independence and sovereignty" is OF COURSE ideal, but how do you do that without putting Israel at even further risk? — flannel jesus

Do you know that Israel is in a territory that never belonged to them? I don't see the Old Testament as a legitimate 'paper', it is not a treaty or convention. Maybe you do...

I don't think those comments matter right now. I can agree with every single word of what you said about Israel and the old testament and still not have an answer to the question I asked.

If we only care about Israel's risks, this war will never end. This is what Putin claimed indirectly, and it answers your question. This is a conflict between two involved parts, and we should not care only about the interests of one of the sides. They are at risk because of the way they chose to manage their borders as we know today. Now, they have to face the consequences.

Psychological Aspects of the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict: A Systematic Review — FreeEmotion

Interesting. I'm guessing that's a hidden element of militarization, where a society morphs into a war machine.

If we only care about Israel's risks, this war will never end. — javi2541997

It looks like it's going to end with no Palestinians in Gaza, in other words, a massacre.

Now, they have to face the consequences. — javi2541997

Do they? That doesn't look like that's what's playing out to me.

That won't be the end of it, though. Millions of Palestinians live in the West Bank. If Israel chooses to commit a second Nakba, there will be zero chance for peace in Israel.

Meanwhile, we see several countries that were formerly neutral towards Israel putting diplomatic pressure not to go ahead with this invasion - Egypt, Russia, Türkiye, among others.

If this is happening, Gaza won't be the end of it. Gaza will be the start. I think Israel would be massively overplaying its hand (taking after its big brother, the US) and come out of this mess more vulnerable than it has ever been.

In my view, the biggest threat to Israel is if it were to become totally estranged and politically isolated from its regional neighbours. With this plan, it is coursing directly towards such a situation.

Now is not 1973. Israel's conventional army, while formiddable, will simply lose versus a large, well-coordinated unconventional threat.

Especially in an ethnic/religious conflict like this, 'war among the people', the power of conventional armies is very limited and I suspect that is something Israel is going to learn the hard way - if not in Gaza, in the conflicts that will predictably follow this disaster.

No justice, no peace.

When the oppressor Goliath has been (by any means necessary) bled enough by the knives & slings of their oppressed David, (maybe) they will try coexisting without oppression (e.g. overwhelming rejection of Likud's hardline apartheid-terror policies). The tragedy is, however, it may be decades-too-late for oppressed David to give up on Goliath's oppression even if Goliath relents one day and gives it up. Like survivors of genocide, slavery, ethnic cleansing, mass dispossession – "Never Again" (also) means forever wounded, crippled, haunted, cursed ... vengeful. :death: :fire:

No peace, no justice.

Has there ever been a version of "Waiting For God" in which "Estragon & Vladimir" are portrayed by two elderly women, an Israeli (Golia) and a Palestinian (Davi), on a low dusty hill in a refugee camp? Is "Godot" their fathers, husbands, sons & daughters ... ancestors? Were these widows once cousins? step-sisters? in-laws? lovers? Maybe :flower:

Friday prayers. And the children of Abraham are murdering each other's children again. Why?! Well, why not ...