I think the most important thing to really understand is that Russia is an Empire.

The whole idea of Russia is that it is an Empire. Russian's cannot see themselves as a nation state: there's Tatarstan, there's Chechnya and many other places that really aren't Russian. There are 26 official languages in Russia, and about 100 languages spoken in the country. That doesn't sound anything like a nation state with one people. Hence the fear is, especially with the ruling elite, is that if the Empire of Russia isn't upheld as "natural" Russia, then everything will collapse. Hence you cannot have democracy, you have to have a strong central. government and a strongman leading it. (Especially when the state hasn't been able to provide prosperity for it's people as in the West.)

We've heard it all before, Russia is going to collapse any day now.

Meanwhile, the 21st century's real and only empire, the American empire, is showing actual signs of falling apart.

Meanwhile, the 21st century's real and only empire, the American empire, is showing actual signs of falling apart. — Tzeentch

Interesting, never heard that before.

January 11, 1986

Requiem for the American Empire
“Empires are restless organisms. They must constantly renew themselves; should an empire start leaking energy, it will die.”
Gore Vidal

https://www.thenation.com/article/archive/requiem-american-empire/

:D Well, it's been a while since the US grabbed land. (I'm wondering if they should have stayed in Afghanistan, what do you think?) By the way, some 3% of the US' annual defense budget has been spent on helping Ukraine against the Krempire. Oddly enough, the Ukrainians have strongly gone with the US "empire" and the EU, rejecting the Kremlinian "non-empire". What gives?

Ironically, the post-Cold War plans for NATO and Ukraine were made not long after Vidal made that statement.

Well, it's been a while since the US grabbed land. — jorndoe

The US is essentially an island nation. Grabbing land is not the way it expands its empire. If you want a better understanding of what US imperialism looks like and the deep impact it has on nations, take a look at the example of Japan.

(I'm wondering if they should have stayed in Afghanistan, what do you think?) — jorndoe

Obviously not, both for the Afgani's sake and the Americans themselves. Though if one wished to expediate the US empire's collapse, one should certainly have advocated for the Americans staying there.

The mess that's unfolding there right now is a direct result of the US having destabilized the country, and more western destabilizing won't fix it, it'll just make it worse.

Oddly enough, the Ukrainians have strongly gone with the US "empire" and the EU, rejecting the Kremlinian "non-empire". — jorndoe

Even if Russia can't be considered an empire in the same way the US is, obviously there's plenty wrong with Russian rule for people wanting to resist it.

It's a bit odd though, how Ukraine was wooed with promises of security. Now that same NATO is refusing to get its hands dirty as Ukraine is being wrecked as a direct result of NATO's advances. What sort of diplomacy is that? "We'll guarantee your security if there's anything left of you after you get done fighting that bear over there."

But whatever empire Ukraine wishes to join is up to them.

↪neomac
Ironically, the post-Cold War plans for NATO and Ukraine were made not long after Vidal made that statement. — Tzeentch

Yeah until someone again pointed at the actual signs of NATO falling apart:
Emmanuel Macron warns Europe: NATO is becoming brain-dead
https://www.economist.com/europe/2019/11/07/emmanuel-macron-warns-europe-nato-is-becoming-brain-dead
But I guess you know better.

It's Macron's rubbery spine that opened the door to this disaster in the first place. Merkel dared to push back against the Americans, knowing what would happen if they allowed the US to play Risk in the European backyard.

Merkel dared to push back against the Americans, knowing what would happen if they allowed the US to play Risk in the European backyard. — Tzeentch

And yet: In an interview published in Germany's Zeit magazine on Wednesday, former German chancellor Angela Merkel said that the Minsk agreements had been an attempt to "give Ukraine time" to build up its defences.
https://www.reuters.com/world/putin-russia-may-have-make-ukraine-deal-one-day-partners-cheated-past-2022-12-09/

Ironically enough, some air has been breathed into NATO with the moves against Ukraine.

Same old in Moscow:

'I stand by my opinion': Russian on trial for critical Ukraine interview
^{— AFP and RFE/RL · Aug 30, 2023}

I stand by my opinion. Nothing has changed. — Yuri Kokhovets (37)

I did not like it so I contacted the Investigative Committee. — Radik Gabitov

But the following month, charges against him were requalified into "spreading fakes against the army" under a law adopted shortly after the Kremlin launched the offensive. The case against Kokhovets comes as thousands of Russians have been detained while troops battle in Ukraine. According to OVD-Info, some 20,000 people across the country have been detained since February 2022 for protesting the offensive. Almost all Russian opposition figures have fled the country since the start of the offensive. Most of those who stayed are in prison. This week alone, Russian courts are examining 59 political cases, the monitor said.

Obviously not, both for the Afgani's sake and [...] — Tzeentch

What Afghans? The Taliban you mean? Check this Aug 27, 2023 comment. (Hmm Might be better to move any further comments on this to the/some other thread.)

The US is [...] — Tzeentch

In all honesty, I tend to be more concerned about an "authoritarian empire" than a "democratic empire" :D (also see "Same old in Moscow" above and, well, more comments in this thread than I care to dig out).

What Afghans? The Taliban you mean? Check this Aug 27, 2023 comment. (Hmm Might be better to move any further comments on this to the/some other thread.) — jorndoe

You know who put the Taliban in charge? I'm sure you do.

Afghanistan wasn't such a terrible place before that. Reminds me a bit of Iran, actually. Iran too used to be a relatively modern nation. Didn't the US get involved there as well? And look at it now.

In all honesty, I tend to be more concerned about an "authoritarian empire" than a "democratic empire"... — jorndoe

Of the two, the US is certainly the more worrying one to me. I think the Russians can't hold a candle to the amount of misery and destruction the US has wreaked upon the world - all of which it neatly tucked away in the creases of history, of course.

Ironically enough, some air has been breathed into NATO with the moves against Ukraine. — jorndoe

Whether that's a good thing remains to be seen. Any long-term solutions between Europe and Russia will have to involve some modus vivendi with regards to Ukraine and elsewhere. If military deterrence becomes the only tool for peace it's not a matter of 'if' but a matter of 'when' a new war will break out. And I'm somewhat confident neither the Europeans (of which I am one) nor the Russians want that.

:fire: :fire:

You know who put the Taliban in charge? I'm sure you do. — Tzeentch

But that didn't answer the query. You just took an opportunity to point fingers at your favorite enemy instead. :shrug: (How about you ask a sizeable percentage of the Afghan population?)

[...] the US [...] — Tzeentch

You know, that's why I asked @yebiga (on a few occasions) to fire up a fresh thread on that:

↪yebiga, did you ever get to whipping up a fresh thread on that stuff?
(I didn't notice if you did anyway. But please keep the p0m0 at a tolerable level. :smile:)
May 18, 2023, May 24, 2023, May 26, 2023 — Jun 21, 2023

Too bad they never did. What about you? After all, there's so much to say (as you've shown), so much discussion-worthy, yes? (you won't have to look over your shoulders, be interesting :up: like an exposition)

:fire: :fire:

We've heard it all before, Russia is going to collapse any day now. — Tzeentch

Isn't everything collapsing?

EU was collapsing...at least so said many American commentators.

UK was collapsing...again Scotland is thinking about independence, so any day now, right? And then there's North Ireland, hard Brexit and that unfortunate border issue.

China was collapsing...any day now.

Spain was collapsing... the Catalan independence movement got really far, right?

Sweden was collapsing... remember Sweden, Sweden! As Trump said.

Italy was collapsing... any day now a new crisis has to come from that country.

Greece was collapsing... yes, those debts need to be reshuffled again.

Venezuela was collapsing... millions of Venezuelian refugees cannot be wrong.

Pakistan was collapsing... no really, this country might be really collapsing!

Sudan, Niger, Mali were all collapsing... so much, really, that I started a thread to watch what happens.

Somalia was collapsing... or has that already collapsed?


Did I miss any? Please add if I overlooked some obviously collapsing country.

Felshtinsky speculates:

Putin's days numbered as FSB in process of choosing next Russian president
^{— Joel Day · Daily Express · Aug 30, 2023}

The FSB controls and rules Russia. The entire process of the Russian Presidential election and the election computer which calculates the vote is by law controlled by the FSB.
In 2021, Russia passed a law allowing remote voting. It might be good in most countries but not for Russia: it will lead to a situation where the FSB will have the ability to add votes of the people who didn't come to vote in order to choose their favourite candidate.
My point is that it will be the FSB who choose the next president of Russia.
They did it with Putin in 1999. When [Boris] Yeltsin resigned, by law, the Prime Minister became President of Russia. He has technically been in that position ever since.
If we see suddenly that the Prime Minister is changed to somebody else, let's say Nikolai Patrushev (the secretary of the Security Council of Russia), this will be an indication that they're making Patrushev the President.
I think they may try and create this tradition of using these FSB officials. They did it in 2000 with Putin and have held power for 23 years, and I believe they will try to keep it for as long as possible — they will try to keep it forever. — Yuri Felshtinsky

Whatever the case, I doubt Putin is out for the time being. Looking for a successor is plausible enough, though. Ough Patrushev.

Reports from the ground:

Ukraine's Kharkiv builds classrooms underground to protect students from missiles
^{— Vitalii Hnidyi, Max Hunder, Angus MacSwan · Reuters · Aug 30, 2023}
Media: Education Minister says 76% of institutions in Ukraine have bomb shelters
^{— Dinara Khalilova · The Kyiv Independent · Aug 31, 2023}
In wartime Ukraine, going back to school means preparing for air raids and huddling in shelters
^{— Olga Voitovych, Ivana Kottasová · CNN · Sep 1, 2023}

Not like when I went to school, fortunately. Kind of a testament to Kremlin efforts I suppose. Hopefully, some of those rooms will become tourist attractions instead, the sooner the better.

Meanwhile:

Russian students are returning to school, where they face new lessons to boost their patriotism
^{— Dasha Litvinova · AP · Sep 1, 2023}
Inside Putin's push to rewrite Russian history in favor of his war in Ukraine
^{— Yuliya Talmazan, Artem Grudinin · NBC · Sep 3, 2023}

Wow.

Somehow I have the feeling that Russians are quite used to this.

During the Soviet Union a Russian would talk and behave quite differently when in his or her work and in a public event and then when in his or her kitchen among his or her closest friends. I think this hasn't been forgotten in Putin's Russia.

Besides, feeding with a spoon patriotism has a negative impact on patriotism. Especially when you started a war that the vast majority of people never wanted.

If you want people really to be patriotic, let it really be voluntary. Like umm....in Ukraine?


This repression of any grass-roots movements actually hindered Russia's first mobilization efforts: a state that has fought in every way against people organizing anything in the grass roots (or even holding a small rally) then basically ordered a mobilization without an actual organization to do this, which would have meant that the people ought to have had the initiative on their own to assist with organizing the mobilization.

, are those Molotov cocktails?

As to the former (Ukraine), I'm thinking that hate, unity, nationalism, patriotism grow easy during invasion, ongoing bombing, interrupted while trying to shed the shackles of the dominating neighbor.

As to the latter (Russia), those state-sanctioned, organized, systematic efforts carry a faint whiff of Hitlerjugend (and Soviet methods), which remains kind of ironic. Putin lashes out at West ‘cancelling’ Russian culture, says it reeks of Hitler’s Germany (TASS · Mar 25, 2022). If this is what the Kremlin means by "a multipolar world", then ... well, they're not particularly trying to go for a peaceful path forward. Regress. Looks like an indirect admission of lack of faith in the people. Hopefully, they'll see through it (and not get arrested).

Anyway, such differences in (going back to) school. And different still in, say, Norway and Canada.

are those Molotov cocktails? — jorndoe

Yes, manufactured by Ukrainian volunteers at the start of the war when Russian forces were still racing for their initial objectives.

As to the former (Ukraine), I'm thinking that hate, unity, nationalism, patriotism grow easy during invasion, ongoing bombing, interrupted while trying to shed the shackles of the dominating neighbor. — jorndoe

Nothing instills social cohesion and national identity than an enemy that attacks your country and you make a successful defense against it.

The UK and it's obsession especially with the Batlle of Britain shows this quite well.

I can believe what is happening in Ukraine now. The same thing happened actually in Finland. In 1939 just two decades had gone from a bloody civil war that had divided the country. The country had been also ripped by turmoil about language politics (just like Ukraine had been before the invasion). And then Winter War happened. It really unified the country: there wasn't any "fifth column" or traitorous socialists in the country welcoming the Soviet troops as some might have believed there to be (at least that was said to the Soviet troops, that it was a war of liberating the Finnish workers).

Now of course in Ukraine the war is still going on...

As to the latter (Russia), those state-sanctioned, organized, systematic efforts carry a faint whiff of Hitlerjugend (and Soviet methods), which remains kind of ironic. — jorndoe

Indeed. If Russia was truly fighting a defensive war, there would be large numbers of Russians expats going back to Russia. There wouldn't have been the brain drain that we saw happening when the mobilization was started.

But I'm hopeful that Russia can shed it's fascist tendencies and perhaps become a normal democracy someday. But I acknowledge it will be difficult. Yet Spain and Portugal aren't anymore fascist.

More "deadly drug" from pro-Western-hyper-neo-pluto-crypto-capitalist-colonialist-warmonger-satanist-LGBTQ-freemason-nazi-zionist-mic-bigpharma-&-what-about-Vietnam-Iraq-Afghanistan-Syria-?-pizzagaters: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/sep/02/everything-is-ahead-of-us-ukraine-breaks-russias-first-line-of-defence-in-stronghold

Oh it tastes sooo good. I'm sooo badly addicted to it.

At a checkpoint between Kolotilovka (Russia) and Pokrovka (Ukraine) north of Kharkiv:

How Ukrainians are fleeing life in Russian-held territory
^{— Aya Ibrahim · Deutsche Welle · Sep 1, 2023 · 3m:28s}

Ukrainians in the occupied Donbas area (maybe others) apparently make their way to such border crossings, away from the frontlines. Those kids may still not be out of harm's way, though. Bumpy, yet in contrast to relatively nearby warring. At first, I thought that soldier on the right, at the start of the footage, looked like wearing a bomb (:grin:).

Such markedly different choices of words regarding governments (embedded links mine) ...

Even if Russia can't be considered an empire in the same way the US is, obviously there's plenty wrong with Russian rule for people wanting to resist it. — Tzeentch

"Dictator" is being kind. Absolute scum of the Earth, better? The fiery pit is too good for that man. — Tzeentch

I'm sure you can see why some suspect(ed) you of ... ehh certain autocrat/anti-democratic sympathies (and an axe to grind). Hereby encouraging you to whip up a new thread.

Well, I've learnt it's the Noam Chomsky approach: you only criticize your own leaders (or leaders of the West, if you are Western). Others can criticize their own leaders. :roll:

If Russia was truly fighting a defensive war, there would be large numbers of Russians expats going back to Russia. There wouldn't have been the brain drain that we saw happening when the mobilization was started. — ssu

Recruitments from prisons have come up prior.

We have no funding restrictions. The country and the government are providing everything that the army asks for. — Putin · Reuters · Dec 21, 2022

But some officials said the goal of attracting 400,000 contract soldiers this year is likely to be unrealistic. That’s roughly equal to the total number of professional troops Russia had before the invasion was launched on Feb. 24, 2022. — Bloomberg · Mar 24, 2023

As of late June 2023, Russia has been appealing to citizens of neighbouring countries with recruitment adverts for individuals to fight in Ukraine. [...] — UK Ministry of Defence · Sep 3, 2023

DECLARATION OF THE MINISTRY OF FOREIGN AFFAIRS

Cuba faces human trafficking operations for the purpose of military recruitment.

The Ministry of the Interior detected and is working on the neutralization and dismantling of a human trafficking network that operates from Russia to incorporate Cuban citizens living there, and even some from Cuba, into the military forces participating in war operations in Ukraine. Attempts of this nature have been neutralized and criminal proceedings have been initiated against people involved in these activities.

Cuba's enemies promote distorted information that seeks to tarnish the image of the country and present it as an accomplice to these actions, which we categorically reject.

Cuba has a firm and clear historical position against mercenarism and plays an active role in the United Nations in repudiation of this practice, being the author of several of the initiatives approved in that forum.

Cuba is not part of the war in Ukraine. It is acting and will act vigorously against anyone, from the national territory, who participates in any form of human trafficking for the purpose of recruitment or mercenarism for Cuban citizens to use arms against any country.

Havana, September 4, 2023 — Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Cuba · Sep 4, 2023

Putin claims West made Zelenskyy Ukrainian leader to mask "glorification of Nazism"
^{— Global News · Sep 5, 2023 · 1m:47s}

As far as the invasion goes, the concern (at least that I've commented on lately) is what Kyiv possibly could have done, is doing, to be deemed a Nazi rule — a Nazi rule is what the Putinistas have claimed, their public rationale, and it's bunk. I imagine Ukrainian Nazis are doing whatever such extremists do. Going by the report, those Azov folks ain't it (unless Mossad screwed up royally). — Dec 20, 2022

And now "the West" "glorifies Nazism"?

Give it up already. Got old some time ago.

Have a war, and, quick, an "election", ... :D

Moscow stages local elections in occupied parts of Ukraine
^{— Felix Light, Felix Hoske, Philippa Fletcher · Reuters · Aug 31, 2023}
Russia holds elections in occupied Ukrainian regions in an effort to tighten its grip there
^{— Yuras Karmanau, Dasha Litvinova · AP · Sep 8, 2023}
Ukraine and US condemn ‘sham elections’ in Crimea, Russia decries ‘meddling’
^{— Vikrant Singh · WION · Sep 8, 2023}

Alternate headline: "The Kremlin looks to expand regressive Russia to grabbed land."
I imagine they get lots of requests for comments from news agencies and others.
An open session with them and journalists from all over would be nifty.

Here, when you buy a SIM card for your phone, you immediately get an SMS from the Ministry of Internal Affairs and United Russia Party. [...] People are generally apolitical, inert, and know who will win anyways. — “Baska” · CNN · Sep 8, 2023

It comes alongside an effort to force residents in the regions to accept Russian citizenship, according to a report released last month by the Yale Humanitarian Research Lab. — Rob Picheta, Yulia Kesaieva, Vasco Cotovio, Svitlana Vlasova, Andrew Carey · CNN · Sep 8, 2023

Putin ain't gonna like it:

"Joint US-Armenia military exercise to be held in Armenia on September 11-20 " - https://tass.com/world/1670475

"Armenian PM says depending solely on Russia for security was 'strategic mistake'"
https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/armenian-pm-says-depending-solely-russia-security-was-strategic-mistake-2023-09-03/

Russia-1 TV interview with colonel general Andrey Mordvichev sometime at the end of July 2023:

TheKremlinYap · Sep 9, 2023 · 1m:12s

^{— How long will the war last?
— I think there's still plenty of time to spend. It is pointless to talk about a specified period. If we are talking about Eastern Europe, which we will have to... Of course, then it will be longer.
— Ukraine is only a stepping stone?
— Yes, absolutely. It is only the beginning. I think that all kinds of ideologists and instigators of this war will not stop here.
— How long do you feel they'll have enough fervor for this offensive?
— Until the end of August. Their fervor will last until the end of August, and then there will be a short break. They won't accomplish much in the winter. By spring, I think it will all be over. The question is that we will have to respond to their offensive at some point in time. We have to liberate our lands. Unequivocally. It must be done, and we will have to do it.}

Might have been mainly intended for the general Russian population?

Either way, it goes well with earlier statements (The Guardian, AP, RIA) from Sergey Lavrov + team, and Oleksii Reznikov later echoed some of this (BI). What to make of Dmitry Medvedev's fiery rambling (AJ, The Hill, TASS) in this context? "Ideologist/instigator"? The Moldovans have been nervous for some time (RFE/RL, AP+VOA, WSJ, Reuters, Yahoo, WION, CNN). Incidentally, we've seen other expansive (and provocative) activities (ArcticToday, CNN, AJ, Reuters, CTV, NP) of the world's largest country.

A Putinian vision at work or something? What's your take anyway?

Bad news for Ukrainians: A Pole about the tragic situation in Ukraine. "They have no one to fight"
https://wiadomosci-wp-pl.translate.goog/polak-opowiada-o-tragicznej-sytuacji-w-ukrainie-sprzet-pali-sie-jak-zapalki-6934373478947744a?fbclid=IwAR1kBtdnbSMDJYGyVLIESmpNI-gWWULbaswF8mBry2vXIdRP5PA51teQyc8&_x_tr_sl=pl&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=fr&_x_tr_pto=wapp

Interview regarding Prigozhin:

Ivan Prieobrazhensky: After Prigozhin's death, Putin may attack Shoigu (via google translate)
^{— Tatiana Kolesnychenko, Ivan Prieobrazhensky · Wirtualna Polska · Aug 28, 2023}

Has themes from Game of Thrones or The Prince (like opportunism, heartlessness, meticulous calculation, assassination, ruthlessness, whatever means to justify ends, deniability, cynicism, all that).

(stumbled upon Wirtualna Polska, thanks )

Inventive...

Ukraine gets paper drones from Australia
^{— Daisuke Sato · Defence Blog · Mar 21, 2023}
Like a child's project, with profound impact: How cardboard drones can shape Ukraine war
^{— Madeleine Wedesweiler · SBS+AAP · Sep 6, 2023}

Payload: 5 kg
Wingspan: 2 m
Speed: 60 km/h
Range: 120 km
Price: US$3,500

If (half) a dozen of those can take out, say, a parked fighter plane, then it seems worthwhile for the defenders.