t it was quite unclear if it was stoppable before they marched into central Moscow, — Count Timothy von Icarus

Well it looked unstoppable from my armchair. But then it stopped. I think I'll shut up now for a bit and see what happens next.

as a matter of principle, I feel it's wise to assume people's who's job is to deceive you ... may actually succeed in doing so from time to time. — boethius

Yeah, and people whose job is to inform you honestly, too, I fear.

"Look, we made this model of a horse extra big, so you can't drag it into your city, so don't even try, even though we put wheels on it to make you try. And we've given up and gone home anyway, honest."

Al Jazeera spoke to Daniel Hawkins, a journalist based in Moscow, who said that Yevgeny Prigozhin is still under investigation by Russian authorities for mutiny.

“Initially Putin said the charges will be dropped but that seems to be on the table again,” Hawkins said. “A lot will depend on the Kremlin’s response to his statement, and how that relationship will develop if there will be one at all.”

“[Prigozhin] said the whole incident was simply a demonstration of the weak spots of the Russian security forces, a demonstration of how – according to him – Russia’s so-called special military operation in Ukraine could have gone if given to the hands of the most professional fighting force in the world.”

But how exactly that would look like is hard to say, Hawkins said.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2023/6/26/russia-ukraine-live-news-shoigu-meets-troops-after-wagner-mutiny

Apparently this was meant as a kind of wake up call to the Kremlin. Strange way to do so...

How do commentators here compare the January 6 insurrection in the US capitol building with Prigozhin's coup attempt (if that's what it was)? — BC

I'd say you're comparing kids playing cowboys and Indians with a proper re-enactment of the October revolution. — unenlightened

Things are still in motion, and of what has happened so far a lot remains unclear, and a lot will probably remain hidden from view in the foreseeable future. But from what I can see, it was neither of these extremes. Comparison with the January 6 riots in Washington is inapt, but if there is anything in common between these events, it is that neither of them was an attempted coup, strictly speaking. Trump's rioters hardly had any definite plan, but their actions amounted to trying to force the hand of Congress, rather than to literally overthrow the government and install Trump.

Prigozhin's mutiny was clearly well planned (US intelligence now say that they saw Wagner's preparations days in advance, and that is believable). But it seems that he was also aiming to force change within the system, rather than to overthrow Putin. Prigozhin may be a loose cannon, but he is not insane. Most likely, he sought to renegotiate the terms of whatever informal agreement he had with Putin, improve his standing, replace military leadership with whom he had been feuding. Such a feudalistic power play on the part of a warlord is not that out of place in today's Russia.

My guess would be that Prigozhin hoped more people would bandwagon aboard, since dissatisfaction with Shoigu is apparently widespread in the military. — Count Timothy von Icarus

Yeah, that's my take too. Prigozhin was probably gambling on receiving support from parts of the military, but he miscalculated.

Likewise, ordinary Russians were just faced with the anxiety and abyss of real chaos and then immediately relieved and comforted with the warm cloak of order and familiarity. — boethius

You can see how 'relieved and comforted' people are on Russian TV... On Solovyov's show Bezrukov is complaining about the weak and impotent government. 'This couldn't happen in a strong country!' he says (on Solovyov's!). Margarita just looks stunned... Half of milbloggers are calling for blood... On RIA's forums very few people are 'comforted', most are frightened and confused. The most often asked question is: why nobody seeks to punish someone who shot down a dozen of Russian airmen?

Again: a person initiating an action that Putin explicitly called on TV 'treason' just walks free, with personal safety guaranteed by Putin (as reported by Peskov), greeted by crowds. Is that a show of order, a source of comfort? I disagree.

I would say that both Prigozhin and Putin lost much too much for it to be staged.

EDIT: Just an excerpt from Putin's speech:

I repeat: any internal mutiny is a deadly threat to our state, to us as a nation. It’s a blow against Russia, against our people. And our actions to defend the fatherland from such a threat will be brutal.

Anyone who consciously went on the path of betrayal, who prepared the armed mutiny, went on the path of blackmail and terrorist actions, will be punished inevitably. They will answer before the law and our people.

None of that happened.

For all that's already been known, the degree of dysfunction in the power structure and the society that this episode has brought to the surface is pretty amazing.

You can see how 'relieved and comforted' people are on Russian TV... On Solovyov's show Bezrukov is complaining about the weak and impotent government. 'This couldn't happen in a strong country!' he says (on Solovyov's!). Margarita just looks stunned... Half of milbloggers are calling for blood... On RIA's forums very few people are 'comforted', most are frightened and confused. The most often asked question is: why nobody seeks to punish someone who shot down a dozen of Russian airmen? — Jabberwock

For sure it will remain confusing. However, the fright will dissipate with everything going back to normal/

But for any normal person, they will definitely be relieved and comforted by the coup ending suddenly. One day it's the return to the 90s, tanks gonna be firing at government buildings and so on, bracing for total chaos, collapse of government, and a civil war in Russia ... but also nothing makes sense and it's not a coup and a march for peace, and then the next day it's just completely over, "settled", bloodless.

I would say that both Prigozhin and Putin lost much too much for it to be staged. — Jabberwock

As I mentioned, you need to give to get. Coup has to be "sold".

Reasons the negatives can be mitigated are, for instance, confidence in victory on the battlefield.

However, the costs only make sense to consider in the context of the benefits.

The whole Western media is now talking about this coup and how weak Putin and Russia is ... what they aren't talking about anymore is the imminent nuclear attack in Ukraine by Russia nor needing to get more heavy weapons to Ukraine as Russian resistance has been "fierce". Zelensky is out of the news, and all we're talking about is Russian internal politics and how bad a Russian civil war could get.

However, it's difficult to complete such an analysis because we don't have all the secret information available to intelligence agencies. Maybe this was a high stakes reaction to information of some other intelligence agency engaging in some high stakes action (which may or may not be actually true), such as pre-blaming Russia for a nuclear attack and then going and spreading some nuclear material and blaming it on Russia.

Or, then just classic mad man theory as well as classic controlled opposition.

And my basic point is not to "prove" it was staged, just that it's certainly possible (and possible for reasons we may not have any information access about), but most of all, a group that ascribes enough elaborate propaganda power to Russia as to fix elections in the United States should certainly conclude from that belief that pretty much anything happening in Russia could be some sophisticated propaganda plot.

That's the point I want to emphasise the most, the belief that Russian intelligence can significantly influence US elections through US technology companies under US government regulation and NSA supervision is not compatible with the complete denial Russian intelligence can't come up with this whole Prigozhin character arch for reasons we may even be too unsophisticated to even imagine. If Russia can control events, and perception of events, in the US, they certainly can do it even better in Russia.

And this criticism is mainly towards Western media that harped on about Russia influencing US elections for years, compromat on Trump etc. and then turn around and take all these antics (since months and months and months) by Prigozhin at face value.

Apparently this was meant as a kind of wake up call to the Kremlin. Strange way to do so... — Manuel

That aspect makes me wonder if Prigozhin had been communicating with parts of Putin's regime and other oligarchs who may have extended tentative support if he achieved a certain level of success. The sudden abandonment of the project could have come from being notified that the support was being withdrawn. Palace intrigue combined with Mafia gang dynamics.

Having to shoot down Russian aircraft cannot be what Prigozhin was hoping for.

For all that's already been known, the degree of dysfunction in the power structure and the society that this episode has brought to the surface is pretty amazing. — SophistiCat

I don't understand why their military was pitted against itself to begin with. Was that on purpose to keep the military from taking over? Or what?

So either we go with what we know, and the known loss/gain ratio practically excludes the 'staged coup' scenario, or we assume we know almost nothing and have to refrain from conclusions.

To put things in context, the current top headlines on CNN are:

- Putin claims Russia would have put down 'armed rebellion'
- Russia President Addresses nation and warns against 'internal mutiny' in wake of Wagner insurrection
- Wagner boss calls march on Moscow 'protest' and not attempt to overthrow Putin
- Analysis: Yevegeny Prigozhin over-reached and lost
- Analysis: The West must now consider possibility of a Russian political collapse
- Purin power threatened: John Bolton advises not to 'underestimate' Putin
- Analysis: Despite an abrupt about-face, Prigozhin deeply humiliated Kremlin
- The next shoe to drop in Russia
- China throws support behind 'strategic partner' Russia
- Biden says the US and its allies had nothing to with Wagner's rebellion

Now, why Putin et. al. would want these kinds of headlines is to skip over the basic advantages of taking the initiative in forming headlines. Putin is in the news and the whole world wants to know what he has to say about these recent events, and who's not in the news: Zelensky asking for more weapons, or Graham and Blumenthal talking about their resolution to put Ukraine under the US nuclear umbrella, nor celebration or rationalisation of Ukraine taking a few villages in their offensive, nor any events in Ukraine at all.

Boethius and Tzeentch haven't made much sense to the rest of us since the war began. We're not really expecting that to change.

↪boethius So either we go with what we know, and the known loss/gain ratio practically excludes the 'staged coup' scenario, or we assume we know almost nothing and have to refrain from conclusions. — Jabberwock

There's plenty of benefits we can analyse.

My point about benefits we are too unsophisticated to even know is in the context of people think Russian intelligence plaid a vital roll in getting Trump elected. If you ascribe that much power to Russian intelligence they are literally capable of anything. Literally anything happening in the entire world could be Russian intelligence.

However, I don't ascribe to that theory, so, yes, I would agree with you that we should be able to make some sense of things if its staged.

The basic benefit of whole Prigozhin thing is just getting your message in the Western news to begin with. Prigozhin sorts of "hacks into" the Western narrative machine. Of course, how is that possible? It's only possibly by telling things the Western media wants to hear. It's quite extraordinary, a Russian military commander (or whatever you want to call Prigozhin) starts to be basically a trusted source of what is happening on the front line.

If you want your enemy to believe something false for either tactical or strategic value ... well you just have Prigozhin mix it into his diatribes. For example, if you want your enemy to double down in Bakhmut, have Prigozhin say there's heavy losses and artillery is running out and so on. The consequences of a single false belief can be quite extensive and costly.

Likewise, want to frustrate the Ukrainian-Neocon narrative to get Ukraine more heavy weapons, maybe stage a coup and seem weak.

For, one asymmetry in this war is that Russia does not need to import any weapons, but Ukraine does, and (as has been demonstrated since the war started) actually getting heavy weapons into Ukraine can be a long and complicated diplomatic process.

I always try to give the benefit of the doubt.

I always try to give the benefit of the doubt. — Jabberwock

Me too.

Maybe the action was genuine, and Prigozhin hadn't anticipated that his protest against the top brass would be interpreted as an attempt at a coup. He'd have to be pretty naive for that, but it's possible albeit not very likely.

Prigozhin doesn't strike me as the type who would march on the Kremlin armed with nothing but the power of hope and a handful of troops.

The timing for a coup also seems illogical, since the Ukrainian offensive had just stalled after achieving very little.

My sense is that unless we get more information, this episode will be best judged by the effects it has on the battlefield.

If Ukraine suddenly starts winning on the battlefield, there is genuine chaos in the Russian camp.
If things stay pretty much the same, it was probably a fluke blown out of proportion by the media.
If the Russians launch a new offensive, it was probably a psy-op.

Boethius and Tzeentch haven't made much sense to the rest of us since the war began. We're not really expecting that to change. — frank

Unless 'the rest of you' stop hitting the hopium, I don't expect that to change either.

↪frank I always try to give the benefit of the doubt. — Jabberwock

Well, give it a go.

Why would the entire Russian military and intelligence structure of Russia tolerate Prigozhin criticising them for months and months, "embarrassing them", lowering troop and citizen moral, and so on? Why would Putin tolerate it? Why would Russian intelligence (that has plenty control over the internet in Russia) allow Prigozhin to just post his dissenting videos completely impromptu?

How does Prigozhin do his "march for peace" for 800km without running into any road blocks or obstacles of any kind. Why would Prigozhin the "mutineer" be safe in Belarus and accept such a deal in order to get away with the fruits of extorting and embarrassing the Kremlin, the military, the intelligence structures?

You really think Prigozhin is just this powerful? Allowed to amass this unchecked power ... that's 100% dependent on the Russian military structure for ammo and supplies?

You really think the best explanation is that Prigozhin has just massive balls and (at least expects) to just waltz out of Russia into Belarus carrying his sacks of gold under his massive nuts?

Nobody really knows right now what Prigozhin was really thinking, he says it was a protest of kinds. But is that the actual reason?

Maybe what you say is right, but then why stay in Belarus? Might take some time to figure out what was going on.

To remind people of what an actual coup attempt looks like:

Maybe. Or maybe he did receive support? The air assets brought against Wagner were not considerable, rotary wing craft held at low levels. It would be interesting to see which branch the pilots were with. Gerasimov hasn't been seen or heard since the rebellion. Shoigu has only been seen in a bit of stock footage type shots that could have been from any time. Putin also hasn't been visible.

After Putin goes on TV and specifically references 1917, then allows the rebel leader and the rebels to carry off their military gear to Belarus, no punishment, you'd think he'd at least try to do some show of strength thing where he is seen with Shoigu, showing that he hadn't folded to Wagner's demands. But that hasn't happened, allowing room for people to speculate that he did have to capitulate on command of the MoD.

But even if that was the case, why wouldn't he reverse course after the crisis was averted to show he hadn't capitulated?

It's pure speculation, but I get the feeling that this might have been the last straw for the military leadership and that they may be dictating ultimatums at this point.

The thing is, a lot of these guys are quite nationalist, and they also have a sunk cost with the war. They absolutely do not want chaos behind the lines, Wagner taking Moscow, etc., because they want to win, but they also want more control over operations, more independence, more freedom to promote leaders based on merit, and freedom to go after anyone whose corruption is hurting the war effort, even if they are part of the top FSB-dominant clique.

Pure speculation, but if we start seeing guys who could formerly act with impunity getting arrested and leadership shifts, that would be my suspicion of why. This would be a bad thing for Ukraine (more competent and possibly hard line leadership), although it could also precipitate another crisis, as empowering the military means taking power from those who are used to having it.

My point about benefits we are too unsophisticated to even know is in the context of people think Russian intelligence plaid a vital roll in getting Trump elected. If you ascribe that much power to Russian intelligence they are literally capable of anything. Literally anything happening in the entire world could be Russian intelligence. — boethius

Yes, you seem pretty hung up on that argument, but it does not follow. As in our previous discussions, you seem to treat the issue in a restrictively binary way – either Russian intelligence can orchestrate the whole US elections or it is helpless. That is, of course, a false dilemma.

The basic benefit of whole Prigozhin thing is just getting your message in the Western news to begin with. — boethius

Putin taking an enormous hit to his reputation (again: he literally promised Prigozhin, the traitor, harsh punishment and utterly failed to deliver) for the price of being in the news for three days (because that is how Western media works) is beyond absurd. But OK, let us see the news: Poland has promised 'thousands of assault rifles and millions of ammo', Denmark has announced that it will speed up its plane replacements two years ahead just to give Ukraine F16s earlier, Australia will provide 70 million military package, US has announced that it will announce tomorrow another 500 million package, Bulgaria (!) has approved a military aid package of unknown value, foreign ministers of EU states approved an increase of 3.5 BILLION euros for military assistance for Ukraine. These are news FROM TODAY. Is that the 'frustrated narrative' of military aid? It does not look that frustrated to me...

Well, give it a go. — boethius

Kremlin has tolerated Prigozhin for months, because he was extremely useful for the war effort, at least until Bakhmut. After Wagner was decimated in Bakhmut and many contracts expired, its military force became to wane. For MoD it was a signal that it might take control of it or at least pacify it, for Prigozhin it was the last call to stay relevant. But, more importantly, Prigozhin is (or was till Friday) idolized by all pro-war Russians: his troops were most efficient, did not flinch from most difficult tasks, actually made the effort (unlike Tik-Tok troops). Solovyov was his buddy, Peskov's son was thrilled to 'serve' under him, milbloggers loved him... He was all that the MoD brass was not. In short, he was a morale booster, the military man Russians always wanted. You do not just whack someone like that because he said some harsh things (which were still rather mild compared to, say, Girkin).

Agreed. My comment is pure speculation.

Germany ready to put 4,000 soldiers permanently in Lithuania

As Wagner is moved to Belarus, it seems NATO is not taking chances.

I don't understand why their military was pitted against itself to begin with. Was that on purpose to keep the military from taking over? Or what? — frank

Wagner wasn't military. They weren't even legal (an "illegal armed group" is how Russian law qualifies such formations). As for what purpose they served, originally they were a semi-secret pro-government mercenary group that functioned somewhat like old-time privateers. They operated mostly in Africa, enriching themselves with deniable help and blessing of the Kremlin. They saw action in Ukraine in 2014 and later in Syria.

When Russia invaded Ukraine last year, Wagner was not there originally; Prigozhin's relationship with the military top brass was already poor at that time. But, shrewd businessman that he was, he quickly got on the action, and following the failure of blyatzkrieg, Putin must have appreciated any help he could get. Wagner's mercenaries, boosted by tens of thousands of expendable convicts recruited directly from prison camps, proved to be the most effective assault troops (which says much about the state of the Russian military).

That convict element seems very important to the mix to me. I think of those videos where Progozhin is shown telling them (more or less): "Make no mistake, if you back out of this deal, I will kill you myself."

Well this last offensive has been mentioned a few times, notably by Col. Macgregor, who has been pretty good in his predictions so far.

So it's not a surprise that NATO is also on the reaction, because if there is no big push from either side this summer, then we are in for an extremely long and ever more dangerous stalemate.

It's going to be a rather tense couple of months...

Yes, you seem pretty hung up on that argument, but it does not follow. As in our previous discussions, you seem to treat the issue in a restrictively binary way – either Russian intelligence can orchestrate the whole US elections or it is helpless. That is, of course, a false dilemma. — Jabberwock

This is not what I've stated. I've stated the belief that Russian intelligence can orchestrate the US elections is incompatible with the belief that all these strange events with Prigozhin cannot possibly be staged but must be exactly what the Western media would wish to be true about them.

It is not a false dilemma. If Russia didn't engineer the outcome of Trump's election, then maybe it's still very capable, just not that capable.

Putin taking an enormous hit to his reputation (again: he literally promised Prigozhin, the traitor, harsh punishment and utterly failed to deliver) for the price of being in the news for three days (because that is how Western media works) is beyond absurd. — Jabberwock

For sure it's absurd. However, if you do actually want to stage the coup then this is one thing you just have to accept, that "strongly worded" statements go back and forth during the "coup", so there's buy in, and then everything is just walked back.

Sure, in some ways there's negatives for Putin's reputation, but if he remains in power and the Ukraine war and economy goes well there's no long term damage, and maybe later they're all like "aha, it was all just an intelligence operation, many Russian lives were saved by getting the West to believe whatever Prigozhin would tell them".

Also, keep in mind that Putin's reputation doesn't matter much in the West, he's already literally Hitler over here, and where it does matter is vis-a-vis other authoritarians, and these conversations are private, so he could just tell them it was all planned (whether it was or not). Point being, negative reputation in Western media may not really matter and how other authoritarians view things maybe very different (what likely matters most to other authoritarians is simply who is winning on the battlefield).

Kremlin has tolerated Prigozhin for months, because he was extremely useful for the war effort, at least until Bakhmut. — Jabberwock

But you don't need Prigozhin for that. You can just arrest him and replace him or even just pass a law nationalising Wagner at any time. There is zero evidence Prigozhin is some sort of brilliant military commander ... his curriculum vitae is going to prison and then running a hot dog stand and then fancy restaurants. There is zero military benefits Prigozhin provides that some other commander / businessman can't equally provide, maybe better.

As for the risks, someone going "off script" and is totally out of control and may do anything at anytime, bad for moral, etc. is impossible to justify tolerating during a war. You really think Putin and the ministry of defensc and intelligence and all the generals will sit around drawing up plans that can be "disrupted" by Prigozhin at any time? It makes zero sense.

But, more importantly, Prigozhin is (or was till Friday) idolized by all pro-war Russians: his troops were most efficient, did not flinch from most difficult tasks, actually made the effort (unlike Tik-Tok troops). — Jabberwock

Again, zero problem: "died in an artillery strike, hero of the nation".

You're argument is basically Prigozhin had the leverage and importance to have every higher-up in the military and Putin himself worried what he might do or say, worried about the power he's continued to be allowed to accumulate. Maybe that's true, but I find it a far longer stretch of the imagination than what is non-sensical theatrics is just that: theatre.

Sure, in some ways there's negatives for Putin's reputation, but if he remains in power and the Ukraine war and economy goes well there's no long term damage, and maybe later they're all like "aha, it was all just an intelligence operation, many Russian lives were saved by getting the West to believe whatever Prigozhin would tell them".

Also, keep in mind that Putin's reputation doesn't matter much in the West, he's already literally Hitler over here, and where it does matter is vis-a-vis other authoritarians, and these conversations are private, so he could just tell them it was all planned (whether it was or not). Point being, negative reputation in Western media may not really matter and how other authoritarians view things maybe very different (what likely matters most to other authoritarians is simply who is winning on the battlefield). — boethius

Putin's reputation in the West is completely irrelevant; for him his reputation at home is essential. The propaganda monolith is very sensitive to any detractions, Putin appearing weak before Russians (and that is exactly what has happened, as evidenced by Russian TV, forums and blogs) for him is potentially fatal. He has shown that he can be challenged with impunity - there is nothing worse for an authoritarian figure.

Not to mention that you have failed to show how exactly 'Russian lives have been saved'. Nothing of the kind happened and in two days nobody will remember the coup, as the military packages are getting bigger and bigger.

But you don't need Prigozhin for that. You can just arrest him and replace him or even just pass a law nationalising Wagner at any time. There is zero evidence Prigozhin is some sort of brilliant military commander ... his curriculum vitae is going to prison and then running a hot dog stand and then fancy restaurants. There is zero military benefits Prigozhin provides that some other commander / businessman can't equally provide, maybe better. — boethius

That is demonstrably false. Prigozhin alone has assembled a military force that appears to be decidedly better than the rest of the Russian forces. The whole point is that Shoigu and Gerasimov's troops could not equal Wagner even with theoretically bigger resources. If he was that easy to replace, then all Russian soldiers should equal Wagnerites. They pretty obviously do not.

As for the risks, someone going "off script" and is totally out of control and may do anything at anytime, bad for moral, etc. is impossible to justify tolerating during a war. You really think Putin and the ministry of defensc and intelligence and all the generals will sit around drawing up plans that can be "disrupted" by Prigozhin at any time? It makes zero sense. — boethius

Again - they had little choice as Wagner was indispensable. Besides Prigozhin was not going off script for most of the war – only when he started to hint at his ambitions they decided to pacify him by sending Wagner to Bakhmut.

Again, zero problem: "died in an artillery strike, hero of the nation".

You're argument is basically Prigozhin had the leverage and importance to have every higher-up in the military and Putin himself worried what he might do or say, worried about the power he's continued to be allowed to accumulate. Maybe that's true, but I find it a far longer stretch of the imagination than what is non-sensical theatrics is just that: theatre. — boethius

No imagination is needed, because we do know that he had the leverage: the war would go much worse without Wagner. If that happened, Putin would have much bigger problems than Prigozhin. If they had the choice between allowing his ambitions to grow and losing an important part of the front, it was not much of a choice at all.

Prigozhin has been invaluable to Putin, up until and including Bakhmut anyway. (No, not referring to Prigozhin's cuisine here. :smile:) Allegedly, Wagner has poured enough into the war to warrant medals. Wagner has also done dirty work for Putin elsewhere. Then, allegedly, the Defense Ministry, Shoigu, slaps Prigozhin/Wagner up and down — skips military support/ammo to the frontlines, sends untrained newbies, puts them in danger, plans to take over Wagner, whatever. (Would a Wagner takeover mean that the Central African Republic would become part of Russia? :chin:)

Prigozhin directly contradicted Putin on the old NATO-phobia. Nay, NATO wasn't really a reason for the invasion. The official line on the line. Though, Prigozhin laid this on people lying to Putin. And about other things. (Prigozhin doesn't come through as a patient fellow, by the way.)

So, what the heck is Putin going to do with that? He might have looked at the chessboard, looked again (a sociopathic look), and figured he'd effectively run with Shoigu.

I'm guessing the Club of Angry Patriots would run with Prigozhin — there are overlaps. (By the way, they're not outlawed in Putin's Russia despite being extremists critical of the Kremlin.)

! You never fired up a thread about that stuff, and there's so much of it.

I see. It's just all really strange.