oops!

It is a fait accompli - forget it. Move on! — counterpunch

Move on to what? A bonfire of red tape - to undercut the EU, and further exclude British business from the second largest free market in the world? Sounds great!

Sounds great! — karl stone

I don't know. Globally, the US and China together are a lot bigger than the EU, and they're not at all keen on the kind of tight regulation the EU produces by the metric tonne. I mean - we'll probably kill the planet in the process, but at least our tomb will be decorated with gold!

at least our tomb will be decorated with gold! — counterpunch

That's some cold consolation! The EU was the ideal vehicle for tackling climate change. They had the ability to coordinate the policies of 28 nation states - including Britain. And now, we're racing to the bottom to compete with India and China - who are far more populous, and a lot poorer. Remember when Jeremy Hunt said "Britons will be working like Chinese sweatshop labourers"?

Remember when Jeremy Hunt said "Britons will be working like Chinese sweatshop labourers"? — karl stone

And that was before Covid! You've gotta laugh; if you don't you'll cry! What I've noticed is - that over the longer term, these things tend to pan out more moderately than the worst case scenario might suggest. EU businesses will want access to the UK market; and so reciprocally, will have to allow British business access to EU markets. It'll all settle down into some not quite satisfactory compromise, and we'll muddle through - at least, until the sky bursts into flames!

You've gotta laugh; if you don't you'll cry! — counterpunch

You and I are very much of the same mind; but I still think you need to let it go. Harbouring resentment over the conduct of the 2016 referendum - to get back on topic, is probably not good for you. The 2019 general election decided the matter! The public had the chance to vote to repeal Article 50 - and they declined. You can't argue with that. Anyhow, nice talking with you, but I have to split!

That was my line!

Yes, I agree. Fortunately I have a get out clause, I will qualify for Scottish citizenship.
The U.K. EU relations will settle down and I expect we will rejoin the single market after a decade, or possibly sooner. For me this episode is more about a struggle for survival in the Conservative party, following the catastrophic failure of the financial crash in 2008. We are still reeling from the fallout and the financial bubble has not yet burst.

We have been highjacked by the rise of populism, so you/we can’t blame the voting public. They are innocent and very few understand what is really going on here. The blame lies fairly and squarely with the Tory’s who jumped on the populist bandwagon and sold their country down the river so Blojo could be king for a day and usher in another generation of Tory rule.

But, as is dawning on some of them, they have gone to far, lost trust with reality and destroyed the trust upon which the government and constitution is built. That this embarrassment of a government populated by Eton twits is a disgrace and has probably finished their party off for a generation.

Yes, I agree. Fortunately I have a get out clause, I will qualify for Scottish citizenship. The U.K. EU relations will settle down and I expect we will rejoin the single market after a decade, or possibly sooner. — Punshhh

I'm not sure I know what you mean. Are you saying we'll rejoin the EU? Or gain free access to the single market? Either way, I don't think so. Listen to the speech of Guy Verhofstadt from the day after the referendum.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VJF0V2Z_soU

They were delighted to see us go, because we have a monarchy and a sovereign Parliament that made EU federalism politically difficult, if not impossible. Rejoining the EU would be entirely on their terms - and that would be impossible. The EU will now treat the UK as a third country; and their protectionist policies will work against us.

I am working on the assumption of a Labour, or coalition Labour government for two, perhaps three terms. Which would result in a genuinely EU friendly policy. When I say rejoin single market, I’m thinking of the Norway model.

I am working on the assumption of a Labour, or coalition Labour government for two, perhaps three terms. Which would result in a genuinely EU friendly policy. When I say rejoin single market, I’m thinking of the Norway model. — Punshhh

What makes you think Labour are EU friendly? Half the party are anti-capitalists - who view the EU as a neo liberal institution. Have you not wondered why Jeremy Corbyn was elected Labour leader, on the basis of a populist social media campaign, and £2 entryism - running in parallel to the right wing populism of the Leave campaign? And you think they'd sign up to full membership fees, to be bound by all EU laws, but have no representation in the EU Parliament, Council or Commission? I mean, never say never, but not in a million years! It was Corbyn's communist manifesto in the 2019 general election that scared the shit out of Tory Remainers, and forced them to vote for Boris's brexit!

Pragmatism, I agree about the excesses of Corbyn mania, but the current leadership is moderate on EU membership.
A pragmatic approach to deal with the adverse effects of Brexit, which are beginning to emerge and will become much worse. I am suggesting an economic crisis for which the solution will only lie in greater economic alignment with the EU.
I can see Tory’s refusing to aligning, because power is their only modus operandi. Labour is more concerned with the health of the nation and we are about to step back into our shoes as the sick man of Europe.

As regards Corbyn’s manifesto, when voters are asked about policies in isolation they are broadly supportive of such policies. It was the perception of Corbyn as fed by the Murdoch press and Tory rags to voters. Not to mention the anti socialism we are endemically groomed and conditioned with from cradle to grave, which fed that perception. Culminating in the myth that Corbyn could not be trusted with the nuclear codes and that he would welcome in the worlds despots.

I agree about the excesses of Corbyn mania, but the current leadership is moderate on EU membership. A pragmatic approach to deal with the adverse effects of Brexit, which are beginning to emerge and will become much worse. I am suggesting an economic crisis for which the solution will only lie in greater economic alignment with the EU. — Punshhh

Because the EU was "in on it" in 2016; accepting the withdrawal notice without a word of complaint on behalf of 16m loyal UK EU citizens crying foul, I cannot see the EU taking any stance that would precipitate the kind of economic crisis that would force the UK to rejoin. You can see Verhofstadt's delight at removing the UK as an obstacle to EU federalism in the video posted above. So long as the UK can establish trade links around the world - and I see no reason why not, I think we'll be okay.

One of the things I love about politics is the paradoxical way in which, left wing economic policies are kinder to people - but ultimately, less economically successful. And right wing policies are harder, but it works. At least for a while. Then, after a while, right wing policies exhaust social capital - and Labour need to step in a reinvest in education, health and so on, until - after a while, the public debt is out of control and we need the Tories firm hand on the tiller again.

Problem is, Labour are in disarray. They still haven't come to terms with the fall of communism in the 1990's. Blair tried to re-root socialist values in a 'third way' compromise with capitalism, but the 2008 financial crisis derailed his program. Then Labour elected Corbyn, who produced a manifesto that went way beyond Clause IV - and they've blown any trust they had with middle England, and cannot win an election without that middle class vote.

That's quite aside from the red wall constituencies that abandoned Labour wholesale to effect brexit. And that again, is aside from the overly broad church Labour have created with these young, idealistic, politically correct Corbynites - that they could lose both middle England - and the young idealist constituencies, and the red wall constituencies in the north. If they don't get their act together real fast, Labour could be wiped out. Final thing - you say Labour care, but you seem to be praying for a disaster to befall us so that you can steal power for Labour. That registers with people.

Perhaps you haven’t been following the negative effects of Brexit closely. They are mounting daily, for example and there are hundreds of stories like this affecting most sectors.
https://twitter.com/CoppetainPU/status/1410727085903990784?s=20
The big farming issue around me is sugar beet. Seems they will soon be in crisis.
Or that Sunak announced yesterday that they have given up on seeking equivalence on financial services within the EU.

I would counter your assessment of left bad and right good on economic policy. It is right wing policy which has brought us to this point after all and which was responsible for 2008.

I do to have time to go into greater depth today, so can return to this later.

France didn’t deregulate, shrink the state and reduce taxation, like in the U.K.
So France still has its nationalised services and social support in place. — Punshhh

Indeed, and the railways are an apt example. I actually think the rail network in France is an asset for the future. But the price to pay for such a nationalized service is the power of the unions to stop the service.

Perhaps you haven’t been following the negative effects of Brexit closely. They are mounting daily, for example and there are hundreds of stories like this affecting most sectors. — Punshhh

I really haven't, no! I am very much "brexited out" after campaigning against it from 2015 through to the 2019 general election. I advised remainers to vote LibDem in 2019, but IMO, Comrade Corbyn's communist manifesto forced disaffected Tories back into the brexit fold. They couldn't risk voting Lib Dem for fear of the loony left gaining control. So, four years issuing warnings about phytosanitary measures, cross channel interconnectors, and a race to the bottom - I know where the tensions lie, but I haven't been watching the news for proof of my arguments. I rather hope I'm wrong. And like I say, over time - things usually tend to settle down into some middling scenario. Unless there's a pandemic or something! Then we'd really be in trouble!

I agree about the fear of the left with Corbyn, that it pushed people to vote Tory. But I differ in that I see this as primarily due to a smearing of Corbyn in the press. I don’t think there are the numbers to deliver Tory governments on the fear of socialism alone. Also there is a demographic shift to the left going on. As the voters who remember the winter of discontent are beginning to die off. To be replaced by young voters who have a different outlook on the world and what the priorities of the country are.

The Brexit problems are beginning to bite and due to Johnson’s decision not to delay Brexit until after the pandemic, which was offered by the EU, has guaranteed a winter of discontent at the end of this year. His reckless boosterism is bound to become unstuck at some point. And the numbers of people who will never forgive him and his party is growing.

I agree about the fear of the left with Corbyn, that it pushed people to vote Tory. But I differ in that I see this as primarily due to a smearing of Corbyn in the press. I don’t think there are the numbers to deliver Tory governments on the fear of socialism alone. — Punshhh

You would say that, but I remember Neil Kinnock twice unable to score past a very tired post Thatcher Tory government. Tony Blair ditched Clause IV; won middle England and three elections in a row for Labour.

Also there is a demographic shift to the left going on. As the voters who remember the winter of discontent are beginning to die off. To be replaced by young voters who have a different outlook on the world and what the priorities of the country are. — Punshhh

I don't think people vote for anyone - I think they vote against; and do so primarily on the basis of their economic well being. If the economy is doing well - all is well. Or as Clinton put it - "it's the economy, stupid!" Tony Blair didn't cause capital flight. Corbyn would have, and people know that. Kinnock would have. People don't want socialism even if they value socialist values. That's why Blair's Third Way project should have been built upon - rather than swinging way out left in order to dupe a load of kids with starry eyed idealism!

I agree about the third way. Although it may have been The Sun giving Blair their endorsement which really swung it.

Going back to the demographic shift, post 2008 the world and the economy in the U.K. has changed. The foundational pillars supporting the Tory’s have faltered. They have shown now that they cannot sustainably manage the public services, the Home Office, social care etc etc. Now they have thrown business and prosperity under the Brexit bus, just to neuter UKIP. They really are a busted flush.

Talk to a young person, someone who has recently qualified to vote, what reasons there are to vote Tory?

We used to say that the young are ideologically to the left until they feel a bit of wealth, success, own their own home. That they turn Tory to maintain that level of comfort. How many of our young (now) are going to reach that degree of comfort?

Enough to deliver a Tory government? On the assumption that they are a safe pair of hands?

Chris Grey’s Brexit blog.
https://t.co/wS92ePJqYu?amp=1

“ As the BBC’s Home editor Mark Easton put it, it is “the paradox of Brexit that taking control of your borders requires more international co-operation, not less”. That doesn’t just apply to control of borders, of course. It exposes the entire fantasy of a sovereignty that can be exercised without regard for that of others, and the lie inherent in the ‘take back control’ slogan. It really is time that David Frost and Boris Johnson understood this, but there’s absolutely no sign that they will.”

So it looks as though the Brexit chickens are all coming home to roost....or rather, they would be, but regrettably were on the Continent when the boomgate closed and now can't get visas......


https://edition.cnn.com/2021/09/28/business/brexit-fuel-food-shortages/index.html

https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/panic-buying-drains-britain-s-petrol-pumps-in-brexit-fuel-crisis-20210927-p58uyy.html

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/sep/24/food-petrol-shortages-brexit-goods-johnson-botched-deal

Who'd a known them foreigners were doin' somehtin'...?

The truth will out.

@Punshhh agree?

What happened?

I'm not sure tbh, I don't even live in the UK. @Punshhh seems to know what's happening, but he appears to have gone AWOL...

Hope he's ok.

Sorry, I’ve been busy on Twitter.
I’m fine, I’m insulated from Brexit fallout. I came to the forum today as this week is going to be important for the future relations between U.K. and E.U.

Lord Frost is getting ready to put an ultimatum to the EU tomorrow. There’s been lots of talk of a trade war with the EU over the past few days. Tory’s are ebullient in their brinkmanship, however they may be arrogant in thinking that the EU won’t turn the screws. There is talk in Brussels that it is time to hang U.K. out to dry for a while in the hope that it will bring them to their senses.

U.K. government is actually in chaos, scared of their electorate and being thrown from crisis to crisis. The E.U. Has been concerned for the U.K. economy and people, rather than seeking to punish U.K. in some way.

Major high energy use industry is on the verge of collapse due to the gas price having risen 10 fold, the government is still in denial about the depth of the energy crisis. To start a trade war at this point would throw the country into turmoil.

Watch this space, Chris Grey is worth a follow for a sober analysis.
https://twitter.com/chrisgreybrexit/status/1447260026767396870

His blog from a few days ago.
https://chrisgreybrexitblog.blogspot.com/

It's interesting to me that Boris has actually come up with a believeable rationale for Brexit, and something of a vision - which I thought was well beyond him. I mean; his idea of a high wage, high skills labour force, no longer dependent on immigration to fill its gaps and achieving the necessary extra productivity. It would need huge investment - our industry's past lack of will to make which is what has caused the dependence on cheap labour, so it's probably all pie in the sky and aimed mainly at the Party faithful. Whatever, it surely won't bear fruit before the next election. However if instead we get galloping inflation and continuing shortages it might be a petard by which Starmer can hoist him ..