:grin:

Well, in order to understand the coronavirus' likelihood of mutation it's important to understand how it replicates. The coronavirus is particular amongst many other viruses in that it has a correction or "proof reading system" built into its genetic instructions. The reason viruses are highly mutable is most do not have this capacity which allows large degrees of error to accumulate over time changing its genetic profile. This is why there is no vaccine for the common cold (rhinovirus) because it constantly mutates as well as influenza which mutates into different strains each year meaning vaccine mixtures have to be carefully selected each flu season. Thus it is not as likely that coronavirus will become several different strains very quickly or at all. However it is a pandemic and that amount of virus circulating the globe does have an impact on the probability of a mutation.

Secondly... most mutations result in failure to thrive. It is unlikely that a mutation anywhere in the sequence will actually give benefit to the virus. Most cause it to have a weaker capacity to to something be it connect with a receptor on the host cell or manipulate the cellular machinery needed to reproduce itself. It's only rarely that the mutation happens just right to make it more virulent or increase the mortality rate.

The biggest risk posed by what you described is the establishment of viral reservoirs in certain countries whereby it can trickle into other populations via air travel repeatedly throughout the coming years. It may lead to flight restrictions to endemic areas and that could heighten political and economic tensions.

"@frank has a medical qualification and is working in a hospital treating covid patients. If he says chronic, it's probably chronic."

Ok, let's put it this way, covid 19 seems to kill people that already have a bad underlying health problem...for instance, it seems that 25% of people that have died in the UK have diabetes, I believe 40% had dementia . Risk of death amongst 90 odd percent of the population is very low. The top number for deaths in the UK so far (and this number will almost certainly end up being too high ) is 50,000 deaths (15,000 deaths higher than government figures). 50,000 deaths in a population of 67 million equates to 1 in 1340 of the population...given that those people dying are almost always very ill anyway... it's hardly the black death is it?

I don't think you know, or care, what acute or chronic mean.

I know what they mean...but 90 odd % of people that have died in the UK were already very ill...hope that's simple enough for you.

Ok, so you know what they mean but have no idea how they apply, or the connection between long term health conditions, comorbidity and chronic illness on the deaths. And you've decided that instead of trusting a medical worker's correction of your use of the term, you doubled down and insisted you were right by changing the discussion to more vague terms. Get a grip, learn to know when you don't know, and admit when you are wrong.

I didn't realise that this was a discussion over whether I have misused certain words...a bit of worthless point scoring ...but ho-hum...at least most people have the ability to acknowledge that the seriously ill are the main victims of covid 19.

I didn't realise that this was a discussion over whether I have misused certain words. — Chester

There's no discussion being had. You contradicted the usage of a professional in the field and have been corrected. An apology is in order, rather than this bluster, as though everyone else is really wanting to agonise over your nonsense. What a wanker!

Imagine me standing at my front door behind a suitably pretentious podium, and flanked by my Chief Street Gossip-monger. The chap opposite has asthma (a chronic condition) and was seen having severe breathing difficulties this morning; we hope it was just the asthma. He will not be tested unless he is admitted to hospital and he may well not be admitted because he is fairly old. Our next-door neighbour, who celebrated his century a month or so ago, continues to be visited by two carers twice a day They always have masks, but usually only surgical ones and sometimes one will have an eye shield. And they look as though they are keeping the same masks for the next people they visit.

But at least some people are getting the proper protective gear. Whenever I start to think the UK government is the absolute pits, the US is right there, ready to show how much more awful it can get.

https://theintercept.com/2020/05/17/veterans-affairs-coronavirus-security-police/?fbclid=IwAR1fNMR3-3daKHxM4DqQs9PYaAQVFkhLHmncaP7bUsrS6WRZpU9xV4wTQbM

Counterarguments? — ssu

- As the US has already basically lost it's leadership position in the world thanks to Trump, it will also lose it's clout in fighting pandemics and in the health care sector as everybody now understands how US institutions like the CDC or NIH are totally open to the whims and delusions of totally ignorant ideological politicians. — ssu

Think that's an overstatement regarding the leadership position I think. The US's military position has not been weakened due to the coronavirus, they will still have all the economic influence the dollar brings so long as international trade relies upon it, and they're almost certainly not going to lose their veto in the UN.

The US losing its dominance in politics would probably require a big restructuring of the global economy , rather than everyone being in the shit and still having international trade depend on the US.

Trump's not really a global geopolitical disaster for America, despite his ineptness.

- The majority of Americans will draw the correct conclusions from this and if possible, will stay home and continue social distancing. A minority won't and this will keep the pandemic strong. — ssu

I suspect that most people are tired of the social distancing measures, and that a majority will skirt and resist the guidelines as much as they feel they can. EG: bars opened in the evening here in Norway this week, and the group size guidelines did little to stem how packed it was. It was the national day today, and the streets were pretty packed, even though most of the displays were cancelled. We're talking crowds of 20 people meeting each other when the rules mandate groups of 5.

If Norway, who by and large have been following the social distancing measures to the letter and have not had a sustained political and media effort to promote ignoring the guidelines are going to ignore them when it's socially acceptable to do so, the US, which has had those efforts, will have more.

There's an added incentive for the US that the furlough payments haven't been as good here; people's livelihoods are more at stake there than here.

I would be extremely surprised if the US's relaxed mitigation measures didn't result in a majority ignoring them for various reasons quite soon.

I only have your word that he is a "professional in the field" , but that aside you notice that the "professional in the field" doesn't say that I am wrong insofar as it is clear that the vast majority of people that die with covid 19 are already seriously ill. This final fact is the one that you are trying to deflect from in your drunken haze.

Seen on the news yesterday ...





What to do when you can't differentiate adults from juveniles?
Might be time to address that swamp.

_{16 Not The Brightest People Who Are Against The Quarantine Holding Some ‘Interesting’ Signs (Rokas Laurinavičius, Ilona Baliūnaitė)}

it is clear that the vast majority of people that die with covid 19 are already seriously ill. — Chester

It is clear that you are complete tosser. Asthma is a chronic condition, as in one that persists over the long term. Most people with asthma can expect to live a normal or near normal life-span with some medication. So in most cases it is not 'serious' in the sense of being life-threatening. Likewise Diabetes is a condition that with treatment people live with for many years. My son-in-law has been insulin dependent type1 diabetic since childhood. That's 35 years of 'serious' illness.

And you, you arrogant little turd, think all these people can be written off as seriously ill anyway so we don't have to care.

Well fuck you and your pathetic racist slurs.

Lol, you're not too bright are you old fella! You're at higher risk because over half of deaths involve people over 80 and alcoholism can be seen as a chronic disease . Have you noticed that many people over 80 are already in a poor state of health, often due to over drinking?

Found this image on twitter giving the death rate for different ages up to the 5th of May...you'll see that the risk of death for the young and healthy is tiny....

PS, for your information anything over 80 is a good lifespan...

“China’s reluctance to allow the international community to investigate and its enthusiasm in creating all sorts of conspiracy theories pointing to non-China origins of the virus only make the world more eager to know the answer,”

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/18/china-facing-pressure-over-covid-19-and-taiwan-at-world-health-assembly

If fat cunt Xinie the Pooh (must be in the at risk category) and the rest allowed an actual investigation, maybe we wouldn't have all these cretins coming up with their cretinous nonsense.

Apparently the CCP are not allowing any investigation until 'after the pandemic'. Cunts.

Think that's an overstatement regarding the leadership position I think. The US's military position has not been weakened due to the coronavirus, they will still have all the economic influence the dollar brings so long as international trade relies upon it, and they're almost certainly not going to lose their veto in the UN. — fdrake

The US is still the sole superpower.

But I was talking really about leadership: the ability to lead, to coordinate, to get other nations to follow your agenda. To get various countries to go along with your policies even if not close allies (or those in need of help). That is what I mean by leadership.

That is totally different thing as being the sole superpower and the biggest economy.

You might not understand just how much Trump just has done and how different it was, well, like when George Bush senior formed an alliance with Muslims countries like Pakistan, Egypt and Syria to fight against Saddam Hussein and got the green light to go ahead from the dying Soviet Union.

That time was different.

But I was talking really about leadership: the ability to lead, to coordinate, to get other nations to follow your agenda. To get various countries to go along with your policies even if not close allies (or those in need of help). That is what I mean by leadership. — ssu

You might not understand just how much Trump just has done and how different it was, well, like when George Bush senior formed an alliance with Muslims countries like Pakistan, Egypt and Syria to fight against Saddam Hussein and got the green light to go ahead from the dying Soviet Union. — ssu

Eh, I guess we'll see what happens. Trump's insistence on screwing over the country's diplomats has been pretty stupid.

Its about time he got back in his turdis, lol.

Eh, I guess we'll see what happens. Trump's insistence on screwing over the country's diplomats has been pretty stupid. — fdrake

Perhaps there would be better threads to talk this, but just a quick response.

It's not only Trump, but Trump surely has done immense harm to the US role in the world. But this is a far longer process than just Trump. I think the downfall really started with George Dubya Bush let the neocons invade Iraq. I think the last US President that was looked as having that leadership role was Bill Clinton and older Bush. Before that you had naturally the juxtapositioning between the two superpowers.

But in short, The most damage Trump has done is he has given an example of how utterly unreliable the US can be. So if we get a democratic President, who knows, in four years there can come a republican president that is totally against on what earlier was agreed. I don't think the vitriolic partisanship will go away. And now it's not just a crazy theoretical possibility that the US can leave NATO, it's a genuine possibility that the US will fold on it's agreements and simply leave, go it's own way as obviously someone like Trump simply doesn't need allies, just like he showed with his former Kurdish allies.

What the US withdrawal looks like. From half a year ago:


Once Americans have shown how inept leaders they can choose, why would it never happen again?

But of course, you can listen to for example Peter Zeihan how utterly awesome the US of A is and how well the US has done everything and how badly everybody else is doing.

You know, I completely forgot that happened, God damn, thank you for the reminder.

Moderna's RNA vaccine works. The zombie apocalypse begins.

is it the one out of 28 Days Later?

Actually, that was the virus; not the vaccine. What you on about?

The RNA vaccine causes your body to create a portion of the virus, right?

43% chance of zombies.

I thought it just created an immune response

This is a totally new kind of vaccine. They'll have to do large scale trials to learn how to use it. In the meantime Moderna will start manufacturing it.

Bill Gates gave them 25 million dollars.

It's pretty funny watching American Trumpists bang on about their rights when refusing to wear masks in stores when just a couple of years ago they were crying about how stores should be able to refuse making cakes for gay people.

:up: I'm still waiting to hear that they are still pro life.

It's so absurd isn't it?

Well, we don't teach critical thinking in our schools, such as they are; it's bad for capitalism