Let's hope that the mortality rate is less than 1 or 2 percent. But it seems pretty likely there will be a pandemic--given that cases are popping up hither, thither, and yon. There will be 1,000 to 2,000 deaths per million cases--not one of the world-class devastations like the 1918 influenza pandemic, WWI, WWII, the Black Plague, small pox, and so on. The usual death rate from influenza is pretty low -- less than 1/2 of 1% per 100,000.

You have nailed the economic problem; Production and trade will suffer -- which is understandable. IF you thought that 1% or 2% of the attendees at a big sporting event were going to be shot, you wouldn't attend that event. This is a new disease, so people are double-plus nervous about it. Most people will be inconvenienced at most, if they get sick. Younger, stronger, healthier people won't die very often, or maybe even get very sick. Us old folks should be sure our wills are in final form. I haven't written one yet, so I guess I had better get cracking.

We'll just have to wait and see.

As far as the stock market goes, the ups and downs of speculation are kind of hocus pocus anyway; investors are regularly reported to be spooked or goosed by one thing or another. Like, "the markets are down owing to investor jitters over a report about the Vatican's rodent infestation" or some damn thing. I generally discount that stuff; it sounds too much like fortune telling.

The mass selling of surgical masks is really booming as a business, which makes little sense as those masks only help the infected not to infect the uninfected, but they really do next to nothing to prevent catching the virus — Mayor of Simpleton

Are you positive about this?

Source? Because if you're right it saves me money on buying or not buying a mask..

Last week on a shuttle ride to LAX we were talking to a couple of government health agents (CDC? I don’t recall exactly) deployed there and they confirmed this. They said a mask would have to have a perfect seal and of a more effective design than the cloth or paper ones.

Nevertheless, in Honolulu about 20% of all the Asian tourists you see have these masks on, and business in Chinatown is down by about 15-30%. I think that I read that’s the case for all Chinatowns.

Respirators are designed to protect the user, because they want to keep the contaminants out, whereas surgical masks in the healthcare environment are meant to protect the patients.

Surgical Masks

Surgical masks are used as a physical barrier to protect the user from hazards, such as splashes of large droplets of blood or body fluids.

Surgical masks also protect other people against infection from the person wearing the surgical mask. Such masks trap large particles of body fluids that may contain bacteria or viruses expelled by the wearer.

Surgical masks are used for several different purposes, including the following:

Placed on sick people to limit the spread of infectious respiratory secretions to others.
Worn by healthcare providers to prevent accidental contamination of patients' wounds by the organisms normally present in mucus and saliva.
Worn by workers to protect themselves from splashes or sprays of blood or bodily fluids; they may also keep contaminated fingers/hands away from the mouth and nose.
Surgical masks are not designed or certified to prevent the inhalation of small airborne contaminants. These particles are not visible to the naked eye but may still be capable of causing infection. Surgical masks are not designed to seal tightly against the user's face. During inhalation, much of the potentially contaminated air can pass through gaps between the face and the surgical mask and not be pulled through the filter material of the mask. Their ability to filter small particles varies significantly based upon the type of material used to make the surgical mask, so they cannot be relied upon to protect workers against airborne infectious agents. Only surgical masks that are cleared by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration to be legally marketed in the United States have been tested for their ability to resist blood and body fluids.



https://www.osha.gov/Publications/respirators-vs-surgicalmasks-factsheet.html

Meow!

GREG

Shouldn't that be 10-20,000 deaths per million, (i.e. 1-2%)?
Yes, large sporting events will be some of the first gatherings to be cancelled, the Olympics in Japan for example. Also we have parts supply chains from Chinese manufacturers starting to fail. There will be lots of knock on effects. It's going to become endemic in regions like the Middle East, Cambodia, Bangladesh, Vietnam etc, and Africa. So these regions will become no go areas until an effective vaccine is available, if that is even possible.
I take your point about the stock market, but what if they perceive impending doom, with no short term recovery?

The stats put up by Mayor of Simpleton suggest it's the same as coronaviruses we already have. It's potentially lethal for a section of the population, but for most people, it's just a few days of complete crap.

Shouldn't that be 10-20,000 deaths per million, (i.e. 1-2%)? — Punshhh

Sorry about that. The most familiar stat form is deaths per 100,000, live births per 100,000, etc.

those masks only help the infected not to infect the uninfected, but they really do next to nothing to prevent catching the virus — Mayor of Simpleton

Wait a minute: How can one of the flimsy paper face masks help prevent spreading contagion from the infected to the uninfected, but not the reverse?

My impression is that the typical paper mask is not terribly effective in protecting people and patients from each other. What the masks can stop is droplets of bodily fluid large enough to be snagged by the product; it won't stop very fine droplets or aerosolized sprays of fluid.

One thing the masks do is discourage people from touching some parts of their face, like their mouth and nose, with fingers which can collect bacteria or contaminants from environmental surfaces. Frequent hand washing also reduces transmission from the hand to mucus membrane (nose, mouth, eye...).

Highly effective masks cost waaaay too much money to hand out for free to all and sum. If you are really worried, you can shell out some money and get an effective one, and wear it all the time you are out in public.

People find things like masks reassuring or comforting, which might make them worthwhile for peace of mind (even if not really effective).

Right. I agree; for most people it isn't going to be a problem.

Wait a minute: How can one of the flimsy paper face masks help prevent spreading contagion from the infected to the uninfected, but not the reverse?

My impression is that the typical paper mask is not terribly effective in protecting people and patients from each other. — Bitter Crank

Perhaps because the mask isn't just paper?

Perhaps it is the design of the mask being put together in three layers that has an inner layer for moisture absorption, a middle layer as a barrier for germs and an outer layer designed with a fluid repellant allowing fluids not to be exhaled?

https://www.chp.gov.hk/files/pdf/use_mask_properly.pdf

People find things like masks reassuring or comforting, which might make them worthwhile for peace of mind (even if not really effective). — Bitter Crank

Considering that this disease is a respiratory disease, a mask that holds in fluid (basically trapping the virus inside the human host, but not at all preventing it from entering the respiratory tract of that same potential host) and will increase heat in the respiratory tract.... well that's just what the virus needs to accelerate it's growth giving it a huge advantage over one's immune system. Oh... how a virus just loves warm and moist (like Savannah Georgia in August)... if I'd anthropomorphize the virus I'd imagine it wishes we'd all wear such masks and saying "thank you, your compliance for seeking out a feel good placebo will be rewarded... possibly by death".

That "worthwhile peace of mind" may indeed end up as "rest in peace"... as one should have trusted science instead of impressions as a comforting illusion.

To draw another analogy, surgical masks are to the preventing the coronavirus from infecting a healthy individual during an outbreak as school desks are in preventing radiation poisoning in humans in the event of a nuclear attack. ;)

Meow!

GREG

An interesting scenario would be a world wide pandemic with a mortality of between 1and 2%. Presumably before this point, some countries would shut their borders. We would have massive economic disruption. The stock markets are having a hissy fit already.
— Punshhh

All of which are good things. The overheated stock market needs some cooling off, borders need to be controlled again, and the supply chains need to be made less dependent on China. Good, good, good. How ironic that it takes a China-made virus to push us in that direction.
--nobeernolife

I don't think I need to add anything to this, I suppose.

I don't think I need to add anything to this, I suppose. — Punshhh

No, you don´t.

Oh... how a virus just loves warm and moist — Mayor of Simpleton

Hope all is going well with you, MOS.

Live viruses, being obligate intracellular parasites, are always moist -- maybe not always warm. They don't do well outside of cells. Some naked viruses are durable, most aren't.

As for masks, the masks that hospitals here hand out are accordion-folded paper with maybe some other fiber mixed in to add a bit of strength. Once they get wet (like when outside in the cold, with lots of condensation inside the mask) the paper starts to fall apart.

The blue molded 3M masks which I used to use when running in the winter, don't get soggy, but they are also somewhat stiff, so they don't fit around the mouth quite as snugly, unless one is careful about putting them on. Not having a beard helps.

There are multi-layered masks available which range in price over dimes apiece, and of course nobody is going to hand those out quite so freely. I would guess the 4-layered masks probably offer some substantial protection both ways.

Then there are the heavy duty masks.

In the end, though, respiratory viruses are hard to hide from. One can't always wear a mask (practically, anyway) and unless one is observing hospital-grade infection control procedures, sooner or later airborne disease will find a way into one's inner sanctum, and one will just have to deal with it.

No beer, no life. True. Civilization began with the brewing arts. Some go further and claim civilization began with distillation. Like Noel Coward who declared, "to make a perfect martini, fill a glass with gin and wave it in the general direction of Italy".

Do young people seem like incredibly naive spoiled brats to you? Just wondering.

Sure. Not all of them, but some, for sure. there are even a few quite aged naive spoiled brats. Like the POTUS.

Serious question : Is it possible that the CDC is intentionally limiting the amount of testing to conceal the extent of the virus's spread? The UK (population 66.4 milliion, and 16 known cases) has performed over 7000 tests so far, while the US (population 327.2 million, 14 known non-cruise-ship cases) has only performed 445. (Could part of this be that Americans are less likely to seek medical treatment for non-life-threatening symptoms because of the cost of health care here?)

Apparently only 12 of >100 public health labs are able to test because of a problem with tests from the CDC. They're waiting on new ones. They are not allowed, for some bureaucratic reasons I don't understand, to make their own, though they say that they could quickly do so if allowed.

I don't want to sound too conspiratorial, but what the heck is going on here? None of the other affected countries seem to be having any trouble at all administering tests.

(related: My roommate just arrived home yesterday from his vacation in Hokkaido, which has recently become a major nexus of transmission. :-/ )

I don't want to sound too conspiratorial, but what the heck is going on here? None of the other affected countries seem to be having any trouble at all administering tests. — csalisbury

It is not "conspiratorial" to have those thoughts in the US these days. It is prudent! Some people have worried that China is not being forthcoming with figures because of its possible impact on President Xi. We ought be even more worried about whether the US will be forthcoming with figures, because Trump seems much more interested in the possible impact of the numbers on his re-election bid...than their use by the rest of the world for containing the possible epidemic.

Do young people seem like incredibly naive spoiled brats to you? Just wondering.

Yes, in the UK it was caused by parents mollycoddling when political correctness got involved in school discipline and smacking was banned at home etc.

Worse than being spoiled is that they won't do physical work. In the UK, the government is telling us that now they are going to stop seasonal low paid workers from coming in from the EU, our own young and inactive workers will have to be trained to pick fruit and vegetables and care for old people in care homes. They just won't do it. The government is incompetent though, which I expect you knew already.

I don't think any country will be able to prevent the epidemic spreading through their population. They might be able to slow it. But they don't want to shut their borders, which is what they will need to do.

Punshhh
1.4k
↪csalisbury
↪Frank Apisa
I don't think any country will be able to prevent the epidemic spreading through their population. They might be able to slow it. But they don't want to shut their borders, which is what they will need to do. — Punshhh

Agreed!

This will be a bad one. Not the final one...not the end of humanity or anything like that. But it will be a huge kick in humanity's ass.

Maybe it will wake us up. Maybe we will continue to be jerks and only deal with crises when they are upon us.

The softies. I guess that's good, though. It means we've had peace and prosperity.

I don't mind the mass deaths, but my shares have gone down. This is serious!

And decadence.

That's unfortunate, if I had shares I would have sold them before now and invested in real estate. The value will remain high until the housing crisis is solved, not likely anytime soon.

Maybe it will wake us up. Maybe we will continue to be jerks and only deal with crises when they are upon us.

Yes, hopefully we will wake up. I think the younger generation are ones who can see the challenges. Most of the older generation are either hiding their heads in the sand or reverting to a world view from about 50 years ago. This inertia has always been our downfall, turned opportunity into malaise, or stubborn defiance of change. Well change will be thrust upon us now.

https://ipac-canada.org/coronavirus-resources.php

Preliminary calculations for the average number of infections that each infected person may go on to cause, known as R0. This is estimated to be 2.0 to 3.0 people per infected person. In comparison to seasonal flu, which usually has an R0 of around 1.3.

The World Health Organization accounced on February 24, 2020 that the fatality rate in Wuhan, China, considered the epicenter of the outbreak, is between 2% and 4%. Outside of Wuhan, it is thought to be closer to 0.7%. In a recent JAMA paper The overall case-fatality rate was 2.3%, No deaths occurred in those aged 9 years and younger, but cases in those aged 70 to 79 years had an 8% fatality rate and those aged 80 years and older had a fatality rate of 14.8%. No deaths were reported among mild and severe cases. The fatality rate was 49% among critical cases, and elevated among those with preexisting conditions: 10.5% for people with cardiovascular disease, 7.3% for diabetes, 6.3% for chronic respiratory disease, 6% for hypertension, and 5.6% for cancer.

Country Cases Deaths
China 78,824 2,778
South Korea 2,337 13
Italy 881 21
Other 705 5
Iran 388 34
Japan 228 4
Singapore 93 0
Hong Kong 94 2
US 62 0
France 57 1
Germany 48 0
Kuwait 45 0
Thailand 41 0
Taiwan 34 1
Bahrain 36 0
Malaysia 23 0
Australia 23 0
United Arab Emirates 19 0
UK 20 0
Spain 32 0
Vietnam 16 0
Canada 14 0
Macau 10 0
Switzerland 8 0
Iraq 7 0
Croatia 5 0
Israel 4 0
Oman 4 0
India 3 0
Philippines 3 1
Austria 3 0
Greece 3 0
Romania 3 0
Russia 2 0
Lebanon 2 0
Pakistan 2 0
Algeria 1 0
Afganistan 1 0
Azerbaijan 1 0
Belarus 1 0
Belgium 1 0
Brazil 1 0
Cambodia 1 0
Denmark 1 0
Finland 1 0
Georgia 1 0
Iceland 1 0
Lithuania 1 0
Mexico 1 0
North Macedonia 1 0
Norway 1 0
Nepal 1 0
Netherlands 1 0
New Zealand 1 0
Northern Ireland 1 0
Nigeria 1 0
San Marino 1 0
Sri Lanka 1 0
Egypt 1 0
Estonia 1 0
Sweden 7 0
Total 84,119 2,867

↪frank And decadence. — Punshhh

I don't know if you realize the pun you uttered.

Keep that instant alcohol hand wash with you and wash your hands after co tact with restaurants, doors, anything other people touched.