Obviously, the best way to avoid that is to avoid war in the first place. — boethius
There seems to be a genuine incapacity to understand the realist position I and others have defended here as well as presented by John Mearsheimer. — boethius
Your position is very remote from any realism. — Olivier5
You have argued here that rooting for and supporting the Ukrainians was more morally disgusting than bombing the Ukrainians. — Olivier5
It also shows that realism has little to do with your motivations, because a realist would never bother with such skewed moralism, aware as he would be that it won't convince anyone. — Olivier5
You have argued here that rooting for and supporting the Ukrainians was more morally disgusting than bombing the Ukrainians.
— Olivier5
Which I have not argued. — boethius
So what is the MOST disgusting of the two: to aggress your neighbour in such a war, or to cheerlead the victims trying to defend themselves?
— Olivier5
Cheerleading others to fight for your own virtue-signalling on social media is far more disgusting.
Actually fighting a war, at least there's skin in the game."Courage of your convictions" as they say in French. — boethius
I just explained at length the realistic option to protect Ukraine by "supporting Ukraine" which is to form a formal military alliance inside or outside NATO and send boots on the ground to do, or be prepared to do, actual fighting to protect Ukraine. — boethius
This is not a realist option, rather it's a recipe for WW3. Yet another proof that your position has very little to do with realism. — Olivier5
It is realistic, it's exactly what the Cuban Missile crisis was, which no one really criticises US decisions about. — boethius
Bit ironic when your life's work was actually the dissolution of the Soviet Empire. Think about it, the Soviet Empire was basically the continuation of the Russian Empire, and they got Russia to be against it's own empire.Gorbachev Feels His Life's Work Being Destroyed by Putin, Close Friend Says (Jul 23, 2022)
At 91 and at poor health, he's probably not going to get killed for his words. Then again...you never know. — jorndoe
To those that think everything bad that happens is because of the actions of the US, yes. They take it all in without any problem.Yet, Putin could end the war whenever. Blames the entire "west" while bombing Ukrainians. Is his propaganda/diversion working? — jorndoe
This account, in previously unreported detail, shines new light on the uphill climb to restore U.S. credibility, the attempt to balance secrecy around intelligence with the need to persuade others of its truth, and the challenge of determining how the world’s most powerful military alliance would help a less-than-perfect democracy on Russia’s border defy an attack without NATO firing a shot.
The first in a series of articles examining the road to war and the military campaign in Ukraine, it is drawn from in-depth interviews with more than three dozen senior U.S., Ukrainian, European and NATO officials about a global crisis whose end is yet to be determined. Some spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive intelligence and internal deliberations.
Employees of the Federal Security Service of Russia massively refuse to go to war in Ukraine. They do not agree even for a salary increase of 6-8 times and additional benefits.
The Telegram channel “We Can Explain” authors shared the relevant information, citing a source in the FSB.
The Russian Federation is trying to form new special service units in the temporarily occupied territories of the Kherson, Kharkiv and Zaporizhzhia regions. Military counterintelligence officers are needed and at all levels: from assistants to the commandant on duty to operatives and middle managers.
Very few people want to go to Ukraine, so the FSB is trying to put pressure on employees under whom the “chair wobbles.” If a person is on the verge of being fired or “warned about incomplete service compliance,” then he is offered to go to war. Calling and former secret service employees who lost their jobs on discrediting grounds.
However, the efforts lead to almost nothing. The source said that people are refusing, even though they are offered a lot of money: “Of the 200 people who were called, only three said they would think. And this despite the promises of huge payments and benefits.”
FSB officers are promised to be paid from 450,000 to 600,000 rubles per month if they agree to a “business trip.” This is 6-8 times more than the salary under the contract.
When you start a large conventional war and don't call it even war, you have this. Putin had the balls to put the Russian Armed Forces to make an all out attack on Ukraine, but he hadn't the balls to put the Russian society into war mode. You reap what you sow.Commanders are in a pickle: officially they are not at war, and so peacetime laws apply. Which means that they can't force anyone to fight. Any contract serviceman can quit at any time and for any reason. At most, they can be prosecuted for insubordination, which is not a very serious charge. — SophistiCat
Even the FSB personnel don't seem happy to go to Ukraine — ssu
An agency whose domain includes internal security in Russia as well as espionage in the former Soviet states, the FSB has spent decades spying on Ukraine, attempting to co-opt its institutions, paying off officials and working to impede any perceived drift toward the West. No aspect of the FSB’s intelligence mission outside Russia was more important than burrowing into all levels of Ukrainian society.
And yet, the agency failed to incapacitate Ukraine’s government, foment any semblance of a pro-Russian groundswell or interrupt President Volodymyr Zelensky’s hold on power. Its analysts either did not fathom how forcefully Ukraine would respond, Ukrainian and Western officials said, or did understand but couldn’t or wouldn’t convey such sober assessments to Russian President Vladimir Putin.
What are you talking about? Sending NATO troops and planes and warships into this war would literally be WW3. What do you think Putin will do when NATO troops get close to Moscow? — Olivier5
When you start a large conventional war and don't call it even war, you have this. Putin had the balls to put the Russian Armed Forces to make an all out attack on Ukraine, but he hadn't the balls to put the Russian society into war mode. You reap what you sow. — ssu
Similar news and that some Russian troops don't want to serve in Ukraine (see here) or some officers have been even officers have been prosecuted for sending conscripts to the Ukraine war (see Russia Prosecutes 12 Officers Over Conscript Deployments to Ukraine) just point to one obvious issue: low morale among the Russians fighting troops in this war. — ssu
Smart-looking but dead. Shoulda been putin.
Employ a drone attack. — Changeling
Speaking of FSB, here is the next installment of WoPo's investigative articles on pre-war intelligence: FSB errors played crucial role in Russia's failed war plans in Ukraine — SophistiCat
As I've repeated many times throughout this thread — boethius
I really don't know why you bother — SophistiCat
↪boethius You're on mute. — SophistiCat
↪SophistiCat Yes, this came first apparent when Putin's own intelligence service raided the FSB headquarters responsible for Ukraine after the war had started. Likely they had told simply what Putin wanted to hear (a trap in that intelligence services can fall into). — ssu
I think we'll know the details later even better, but likely the intelligence service painted a rosy picture of this invasion just going so well as the occupation (and annexation) of Crimea. We have to remember that the most successful military operations that the Soviet Union and Russia have pulled off were so successful that they aren't called wars: The occupation of Czechoslovakia 1968 and the occupation of Crimea 2014. Hence the Russia have this urge for these armour attacks going straight to the Capital and simply eliminate the enemy leadership. — ssu
But they have not. And that's the important issue here.Obviously they would make it an "official war" if they wanted to, and they've talked about doing so. — boethius
With the information we have, we can at least quite confidently say that Russian morale isn't high and Ukrainian moral isn't on the verge of collapse.Again, we don't really have any statistically relevant data on Russian troops morale ... and low-morale in armies is pretty common and often goes up and down, total collapse being a pretty big outlier.
Moreover, is Ukrainian morale any better? — boethius
I'm not so sure about that. We do know something about how Russia works. Don't think it's all speculation. Starting with the US knowing that Russia would invade, there are things that are known. What Putin thinks inside his head we naturally have no idea.Again, wild speculations by Western media. — boethius
But they have not. And that's the important issue here. — ssu
With the information we have, we can at least quite confidently say that Russian morale isn't high and Ukrainian moral isn't on the verge of collapse. — ssu
Even if it is anecdotal and perhaps some reporting is biased, there's enough to understand that there are moral (and other) problems in the Russian side. — ssu
I'm not so sure about that. We do know something about how Russia works. Don't think it's all speculation. Starting with the US knowing that Russia would invade, there are things that are known. What Putin thinks inside his head we naturally have no idea. — ssu
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