• frank
    I'm an actualist180 Proof

    That just means you're a determinist.
  • 180 Proof
    But i am (we are) not arguing that the PoE is a "problem" (i.e. proof of the nonexistence of g/G), so your "challenge", Fool, is moot. Pay attention:
  • frank

    Actualism is going to be determinism.
  • frank

    This isn't my stroke of genius, man. Actualism is a form of hard determinism.

    You may be making up your own private actualism, in which case you should probably call it something else.
  • James Riley
    Is it already too late?

    If so, will we reach tipping points no matter what policies we enact?

    Will we actually turn ourselves into Venus?

    If it's not too late, what exactly can we do to contribute to mitigating it?

    Is there ANYONE out there who still doesn't consider this the issue of our times?

    I think it's too late. Tipping points will (or have been reached) regardless. I don't know about Venus. Maybe not that hot. It is too late, but what we can do is accelerate it to mitigate it. I think that if you bring on the pain, and the end, sooner, there might be something left to work with after the lesson is learned. But the longer the foot-dragging, and the slower the boil, the more we destroy what's left, and the less there will be to work with after the lesson is learned.

    The problem is, the pain needs to be felt by those with the power to do something about it. Some people actually need to get Covid, be put on a vent and suffer before they come around. Sometimes they need to see a loved one suffer and die. People are stupid that way. But so long as it affects someone else, Meh. Open up those Arctic shipping lanes so's I can make me some muny!

    I consider it the issue of our times for the last 50 years.
  • 180 Proof
    Search my post history. I've linked to articles on actualism many time in order to clarify my references in modal-ontology. If as you claim, frank, that actualism entails "hard determinism", then by all means make the case. Assertion alone doesn't says much.
  • frank

    Ok fine my bad.
  • jgill
    I haven't kept up, so I'm not sure how actualism and determinism relate to climate change.

    I read that parts of Europe have an energy problem now, and that all those windmills - predicted to have no more than seven days a year of less than 10% output - have gone 65 days so far.

    Where is geothermal? Where is tidal energy? When the sun don't shine and the wind don't blow there's trouble a'brewin.
  • ssu
    Where is geothermal? Where is tidal energy? When the sun don't shine and the wind don't blow there's trouble a'brewin.jgill
    Geothermal isn't a resource for every place,and so is tidal. They can assist, but basically one has to remember that energy production is and will be determined by demand and supply of today. The fact is that we can have those long term plans, but the economic situation of today has a huge impact of just what actually will happen.

    Where are the fossil fuels, you should start with:

    The price of coal:
    Coal usage has rebounded in the past year, wiping out declines in 2020 and interrupting a decades-long downward trend of use in advanced economies.

    The price of oil:

    Although for renewables and alternatives it's basically good that fossil fuel prices are high in the long run, what we seem to have is going to be a possible energy crisis. Rolling blackouts in China isn't a great indicator where the energy market is going.

    Trying to bounce back from Covid, the world has run headlong into an energy crisis. The last spike of this magnitude popped the 2008 bubble.

    Crude oil is up 65% this year to $83 per barrel. Gasoline, above $3 per gallon in most of the country, is more costly than any time since 2014, with inventories at the lowest level in five years.

    Meanwhile natural gas, which provides more than 30% of all U.S. electricity and a lot of wintertime heating, has more than doubled this year to $5 per million Btu.

    Even coal is exploding, with China and India mining as fast as possible. The price of U.S. coal is up 400% this year to $270 per ton.

    The situation is considerably worse in Europe, where electricity prices have quintupled and natgas prices have surged to $30/mm Btu—the energy equivalent of paying $180 for a barrel of oil.

    All this is feeding into the inflation loop, pushing up the prices for energy-intensive metals like nickel, steel, silicon. Fertilizer, mostly made from natural gas, has ramped past 2008 record highs to nearly $1,000 a ton, obliterating the $300 to $450/ton range of the past few years. China announced this week it would halt fertilizer exports. Copper, perhaps the most vital raw material in building out a wind and solar industry, is near a record at $4.50 per pound. We’ll have to deal with inflation after surviving the challenge of not freezing to death this winter. “Only some form of government intervention that mandates large-scale power cuts and rationing to certain sectors can curb gas demand and temper gas prices materially this winter,” wrote Amrita Sen of Energy Aspects last week.

    Do note that what has happened now has a lot to do with the central banks printing trillions. And that the World has, at least officially, turned away from coal and fossil fuels without thinking where the additional energy needed to replace them will come.

    Whom can we blame for this mess? A combination of factors. It starts with central banks persisting with artificially low interest rates and a flood of cheap money despite record levels of consumer spending and a 30% surge in Chinese exports—all of which is straining against pandemic-constricted supply chains. Add to that Russia not flowing nearly as much gas into Europe as expected (perhaps as a passive-aggressive tactic to force approval of Nord Stream 2).

    But the roots go deeper. The ESG and carbon divestment craze has so demonized fossil fuels (and nuclear power) that institutional investors and governments have cut them out of portfolios entirely, and have instead been flowing capital to more socially acceptable low-carbon alternatives.

    If oil prices go over 100 dollars per barrel, that will put on an handbrake on the global economy and we might be looking at a global economic recession/depression.
  • Caldwell
    Coal usage has rebounded in the past year, wiping out declines in 2020 and interrupting a decades-long downward trend of use in advanced economies.
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