The physicalist approach to parapsychology is kinda like being a blind-but-not-deaf hunter and hoping your quarry will make a sound.

Without physical things, how can significance be determined in statistics in a way that isn't arbitrary? — TiredThinker

The best hope of parapsychologists is to mathematically model ectoplasm, then run tests to see if the math is appropriate. But ectoplasm may have gone the way of aether. :worry:

Like guessing the results of a coin flip (George Clooney in Men who stare at goats) and guessing correctly enough above 50/50 odds relative to the number of flips. Without physical things, how can significance be determined in statistics in a way that isn't arbitrary? — TiredThinker

Parapsychology research does depend on demonstrating odds of greater-than-chance over trials using various mechanisms, like cards with symbols on them. There was a researcher called J B Rhine who pioneered this technique, you can read about it here. Suffice to say his research is generally considered flawed due to overlooked methodological errors, and his early, encouraging results have never been replicated. There’s nevertheless quite a flourishing industry in parapsychology, but it is also the target of methodological debunking by groups hostile to it, such as PSICOPS. There is a lot of institutional hostility to such research and it generates a great deal of heat. You will find if you delve into the literature that most of the debates are about the statistical significance of results and reports, meaning that you need expertise in statistical methods to even understand the debates!

statistical methods — Wayfarer

How on earth did people back then when Jesus, other divinely associated folks, performed "miracles" come to the conclusion that god or some other transcendental reality exists in complete ignorance of statistical tools. Should we be skeptical of the holy books now that we have a good handle on statistics?

totally irrelevant to the scientific study of psi.

totally irrelevant to the scientific study of psi. — Wayfarer

Why? Miracles are legit subject matter for parapschology, no?

Well parapsychology I meant to mean the study of individual abilities beyond the obvious 5 sense while miracles are unexpected and unlikely events that happen without individual help per se. And more than that if it is unanticipated one can't prepare an experiment beforehand to measure it.

I am really asking just how significant the results of any experiment need to be above chance before it is meaningful?

Miracles are legit subject matter for parapschology, no? — TheMadFool

https://www.nytimes.com/2016/09/06/opinion/pondering-miracles-medical-and-religious.html?referringSource=articleShare

That is exactly the point I made in the post above. Also the researcher I referred to, J B Rhine, coined the term ‘parapsychology’.

Thanks for the interesting link. Much appreciated.

All I'd like to say is that the Vatican department in charge of investigating miracles might be doing a great disservice to medicine by declaring inexplicable recoveries from fatal illnesses as miracles which are, by definition, instances of divine intervention and that, if nothing else, immediately slams the door shut as it were to medical scientists who would've looked for, following rigorous scientific protocols, a naturalistic explanation which, if found, could revolutionize medical treatment of fatal illnesses. If it were up to the Vatican, many possible cures would never be found.

Nevertheless, stories of miracles are heartening, uplifting, and fills us with hope and a sense of deep wonder that there's more to life and the universe than just what meets the eye.

I am really asking just how significant the results of any experiment need to be above chance before it is meaningful? — TiredThinker

The ritualistic answer: p<0.05, p<0.1 if you include the word "suggestive" in your discussion of the interpretation of the p-value.

The replication crisis answer: That's a how long is a piece of string kinda question. Commonly used significance thresh-holds are still consistent with a 30% replication rate. What is often interpreted as a 5% false discovery rate (1-alpha) can actually be closer to a 70% rate! And it might not even be that because the null hypothesis is usually false when interpreted literally.

The 1 million IQ play: spend your time designing an experiment in which it is impossible for people respond in a manner consistent with psi without the specific effect you're studying being present, make the measurement procedure impossible to influence through experimenter bias AND that your measurements of all variables of interest are precise. Lastly preregister the design, include in the pre-registration the calculations you'd do given data in that design, and the make sure to declare in advance the interpretations of statistical tests given the calculations. Ideally write the analysis program before you even see the data.

In parapsychology methods discussions, you'll often see a parapsychologist pointing out that usually a psychology/sociology/health etc researcher is proposing controls and analytic constraints that psychology/sociology/health etc researchers don't follow. And that accusation is right; it's just that the tu quoque is a pox on both their houses, and it's been very very hard to convince non-parapsychology researchers that this scientific crisis starts at home.

If it were up to the Vatican, many possible cures would never be found. — TheMadFool

If you read that article carefully, you will see that the Vatican is highly skeptical of 'miracle cures' and takes many steps to ensure that bogus or doubtful claims are eliminated, starting from the presumption that most claims are dubious. The author says 'I never expected such reverse skepticism and emphasis on science within the church.'

But I do understand that these accounts will be rejected out of hand by most contributors here, as a matter of principle.

the Vatican ... takes many steps to ensure that bogus or doubtful claims are eliminated — Wayfarer

Priceless!

Right! And for everything else, there's Mastercard.

Trivial pursuit question: where did the phrase 'the devil's advocate' originate?