Comments

  • Ukraine Crisis
    And if people think, "Well, it’s just Ukraine," then I think we need to remember that in December 2021, Russia issued an ultimatum demanding the withdrawal of NATO troops from Eastern Europe.Benkei

    That is the only risk I see from all of this. I don't think Russia would invade NATO countries (but who knows given what Trump has done to it) but I do see a big risk of Putin going after the smaller former Soviet states, if only to save face.

    That being said, the war ending is a good thing since this was realistically the only way it could've ended.
  • The Musk Plutocracy
    I don't think that what Trump is doing is a good idea, but I think it must be admitted that he is doing just what he said he would.Janus

    Except for the part where he said he'd immediately bring down prices.
  • The Musk Plutocracy
    He's dismantling every policy and institution he disagrees with with reckless abandon, precisely as his supporters want him to do.Hanover

    Last I checked, his supporters wanted him to address high prices and immigration while downplaying the possibility he'd do the rest.
  • Donald Trump (All General Trump Conversations Here)
    Because I've seen this play from you before and I know you're not speculating in good faith. Trump is literally doing a worse version of what Biden did but you paint one as a fool and the other as a secret genius.
  • Donald Trump (All General Trump Conversations Here)
    Given that Israel has stomached becoming a rogue state for over a year then I don't see how Trump can use international criticism as a threat, especially since he seems to be the one taking ownership of the whole situation. All the international criticism isn't directed at Israel, but at the US. Netanyahu knows this which is why he can't help but smile and stay silent as Trump gives his speech about Gazans being displaced.

    I'd say the whole idea that Trump pressured Netanyahu to get a cease-fire is put into question now. Since you love speculating on negotiating tactics then this could've all been one big trade off for Netanyahu to pretend to end the war and give an optical win in exchange for Trump taking Gaza off of Israel's hands. Who knows just one theory for how things played out.

    In any case if you're gonna act like this is some 4D chess move by Trump then at least come up with something better.
  • Donald Trump (All General Trump Conversations Here)
    Curious were you saying this about Biden's Gaza policy?
  • Israel killing civilians in Gaza and the West Bank
    The first question is: who is going to drive out Hamas? Israel tried and failed. Are the Americans going to do it for them? If you put aside for a moment how completely absurd that would be, it's not even clear whether the Americans would succeed.Tzeentch

    If people have been asking questions like this, we wouldn't be in this mess.
  • Israel killing civilians in Gaza and the West Bank
    The idea that Trump would send American troops to carry out 'the final solution' in Gaza sounds far-fetched to me. It would be a global diplomatic disaster. It also doesn't make a whole lot of sense to first push Netanyahu to a cease-fire.Tzeentch

    He was on the brink of starting a global trade war a day earlier before chickening out so I don't think anything is far-fetched.

    Pushing for a ceasefire makes sense if you want to use the land as real estate property which is something that Trump's son in law has suggested in the past. Of course we could also not rule out that he doesn't know what he's doing either.

    To put it in another way: Trump just made it plain for all to see that this is not about Hamas, but about the forced deportation of 2,000,000 Palestinians and the ethnic cleansing of Gaza.Tzeentch

    Not that I think it will do much since his election has shown that nothing really matters anymore, but at least people can stop pretending.

    Anyways to borrow your phrasing it will be big if it sticks.
  • Israel killing civilians in Gaza and the West Bank
    Trump's Mideast Envoy Forced Netanyahu to Accept a Gaza Plan He Repeatedly Rejected

    Too early to celebrate, but the implications of this will be major if it sticks.
    Tzeentch

    And... as it turns out, it was too early to celebrate.
  • Fascism in The US: Unlikely? Possible? Probable? How soon?
    Not surprisingly you're splitting hairs again.
  • Fascism in The US: Unlikely? Possible? Probable? How soon?
    I never gave my definition of fascism, nor did I call the EU fascist, but this is just a dumb argument to make.Tzeentch

    You literally called them fascist in your other post:

    A while back I pointed out how, if you want a real example of looming fascism, one should look no further than our own backyard, Europe.

    Today it seems European Union is becoming more and more authoritarian, now overtly threatening to sink the Hungarian economy if it refuses to back aid to Ukraine.

    Brussels threatens to hit Hungary's economy if Viktor Orbán vetoes Ukraine aid (Financial Times)

    Note the lack of respect for the rule of law, the sovereignty of Hungary, and the EU's willingness to strong-arm smaller nations into obedience.

    All I'm asking is for you to be consistent.

    This situation cannot be compared to the US, and obviously between the two if any are closer to fascism it is the EU by a mile and a half.Tzeentch

    As far as I can tell there's not much of a distinction between what you pointed out and what's going on in the US. You know apart from the fact that one is on the nefarious left and the other is on the pure right :roll: .
  • Fascism in The US: Unlikely? Possible? Probable? How soon?
    This has been common practice in the US for decades. The only difference now is that the billionaires are not on the team you like, so suddenly it's fascism. :yawn:Tzeentch

    Hey I'm only going off your definition of fascism here. If you felt the need to call the EU "fascists" earlier then you should do the same for Trump as well. Either both are fascists or none are. The only reason I can see for you not doing either is because, as you suggest, one is on "your team" and the other isn't.
  • Fascism in The US: Unlikely? Possible? Probable? How soon?
    An aggressive foreign policy is nothing new for the US. It's not pretty, obviously, but it's not fascism in the way that it looms over the EU under the unelected, nepo baby Queen Ursula.Tzeentch

    Nobody elected Elon Musk either but Trump is using the weight of the US empire to pressure the UK to not taxing tech billionaires like him.
  • Fascism in The US: Unlikely? Possible? Probable? How soon?
    I don't see how the two are remotely comparable.Tzeentch

    Of course. One is a more left leaning group going after a right leaning country while the other is a right leaning country going after a left leaning country. One is bad and the other one isn't.

    I'm guessing threatening to invade the Panama Canal if they don't do what you want also doesn't amount to what you call "fascism" either. Note the lack of respect for the rule of law, the sovereignty of Panama, and the US's willingness to strong-arm smaller nations into obedience. Not remotely comparable to the lack of respect for the rule of law, the sovereignty of Hungary, and the EU's willingness to strong-arm smaller nations into obedience when it comes to the EU's "authoritarianism".

    If you want to believe economic rivalry between two independent nations equals fascism then you've thrown all sense of reason and proportion out of the window.Tzeentch

    If it was economic rivalry then the US would be concerned about it's own tax laws instead of the ones other countries make, specifically on Trump's new oligarch buddies.
  • Fascism in The US: Unlikely? Possible? Probable? How soon?
    rump's first presidency was nothing special, no fascism, no World War 3, no end of days, etc. and I see no reason to believe his second will be any different.Tzeentch

    I mean by your own metrics, it seems like he's already being a fascist if these past few weeks mean anything:

    Today it seems European Union is becoming more and more authoritarian, now overtly threatening to sink the Hungarian economy if it refuses to back aid to Ukraine.

    Brussels threatens to hit Hungary's economy if Viktor Orbán vetoes Ukraine aid (Financial Times)

    Note the lack of respect for the rule of law, the sovereignty of Hungary, and the EU's willingness to strong-arm smaller nations into obedience.
    Tzeentch

    Trump threatens retaliation against UK over tax on tech giants

    Of course, I suspect they don't mean anything because at the end of the day nothing means anything except left vs. right.
  • Donald Trump (All General Trump Conversations Here)
    I never said he would or that I expect any of his plans to do that (quite the opposite as you've pointed out). But I'm saying that people genuinely expect prices to go down now.
  • Donald Trump (All General Trump Conversations Here)
    Well, let's all hope that Trump will actually get prices to go down because that's apparently the trade that alot of American voters have made for this.
  • Israel killing civilians in Gaza and the West Bank
    I mean we should never underestimate Bibi's ability to undermine any potential for peace, but it will be a total failure of the Biden policy if it goes through and sticks. Trump is only pushing for a ceasefire now because he can understand a political headache when he sees one. Biden though was incapable of seeing the obvious and was either too senile or feeble exert any pressure which could've gotten this result a year ago.
  • Donald Trump (All General Trump Conversations Here)
    Trump is just hot air of populism, basically anti-elitism, that the present elites are evil and screwing the ordinary people and he will solve everything.ssu

    He has the appearance of a populist because calls out the elites when it comes to things like censorship (particularly censorship of him) or when they go after his crimes, but when it comes to his economic grievances he's gonna blame the immigrants, the government, and other countries. They are stealing your jobs, they are bringing in crime and drugs, and they're taking your money. Inflation is caused by too much wasteful government spending and it's spending on other countries that don't deserve it or "woke" programs that help people who aren't you.
  • Donald Trump (All General Trump Conversations Here)
    There is a concentrated effort against trade unions and the labor movement, and this will surely continue during the Trump years. Just look at the billionaires that are the backers of Trump.ssu

    This is the problem with Trump's theory of economic change which is that it completely ignores the role of big business in getting us where we are. It's not just the dirty immigrants who make stuff cheaper. And as far as I can tell these businesses are gonna be given way more influence in this upcoming administration than any previous administration I've seen, even under Trump's last government. The billionaires who benefitted the most from this neoliberal era are not gonna save us from neoliberalism.
  • What should the EU do when Trump wins the next election?
    If Trump did succeed in returning the US to a pre-1990s trade position, it would be the first step in the recreation of American labor unions. It would mean demands for a better social safety net would have power behind them.frank

    The irony is that empowering labor unions is what you wouldn't want if you want to encourage US onshoring. Businesses don't build in the US because the labor and safety standards are poor in countries like China.

    That being said I don't think Trump would care about that. He hasn't been very pro-labor in his first term and as much as he may try to give some crumbs to the labor workers he's been trying to court he's certainly gonna be worse than the Democrats on the matter especially as he surrounds himself with anti-union business leaders like Elon Musk. There will probably be a port strike coming in January, so we'll see how he handles it.

    I don't like Trump, mainly because I don't want to hear his mouth, but on this issue, he's actually lining up with exactly what he said he wanted to do back in 2016: shore up the position of American labor.frank

    He didn't really do that during his first term. In fact, Biden accomplished that. Also, the renegotiated NAFTA he did wasn't even that different from NAFTA.

    I guess it depends on what commodity we're talking about. I think the main thing we get from Mexico is agricultural products. What kind of supply chain were you thinking of?frank

    I mean it's not just Mexico and it's not just agricultural products. The discussions I've seen haven't gone into specifics about the different industries, but they have generally given that time frame for the US to rebuild it's manufacturing infrastructure to pre-NAFTA levels. Two years is way too short a period to expect everything to be fixed especially given how offshoring happened over several decades.

    I mean, inflation is coming down. The Fed is set to decrease rates again next year. When I say I think the tariffs will be permanent, I mean that it won't be possible to form a coalition to get rid of them again. As for Europe, I don't think it's even on the American radar at this point. I think we'll be parting ways in terms of fundamentals.frank

    A future president can remove tariffs if they want as much as Trump can impose them. You don't need congressional approval to get this done. You just need a president who disagrees with Trump's approach on the issue.
  • What should the EU do when Trump wins the next election?
    Or it might become reasonable to start making those items at home instead of importing them.frank

    They'll still be hurt regardless. Whatever will be made in the US will be more expensive and retailers will have to bear that cost or make prices higher. So even in the case where tariffs will bring back US jobs the inflationary effects will be permanent.

    Now of course it's debatable whether that is good or not, but that wasn't the concern for most voters this year. It was inflation and a belief that Trump will bring prices down which is the irony here.

    I'd say more like two years, but I believe the tariffs will be permanent.frank

    The timeframe that's been thrown around is a decade. You can't just simply rebuild entire supply chains in a couple of years, one with the connections and an experienced workforce, especially if a good chunk of that workforce is gonna be deported.

    But if you think Trump should impose these massive tariffs permanently and that the economy and prices would somehow work itself out before the midterms or the next presidential election, that's fine by me. I welcome it too, for different reasons.
  • What should the EU do when Trump wins the next election?
    A lot of those businesses rely on imports and they're the ones who have to pay for the tariffs.

    As for manufacturing, it's not clear 25% tariffs will be enough to encourage investment in US production but assuming it is, it'll take at least a decade before those supply chains are built out and some companies may very well choose to wait out the Trump administration instead or at best move production to other countries like Vietnam which have equally cheap labor compared to China.
  • What should the EU do when Trump wins the next election?
    What the EU should really do is to embrace for the tariffs that Trump will put on Europe. Assume a trade war that will hurt both sides will happen.ssu

    Well he just said he plans to impose 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada, so he probably has plans for the EU too. Personally I'd say call his bluff. He doesn't seem to know what tariffs will do and neither do his voters so they'll likely be in for a reality check if he goes through with it. Given how sensitive he is to political and market pressure he's honestly more likely to blink than anyone else if it gets really bad.
  • What should the EU do when Trump wins the next election?
    The only thing positive here is that Trump is simply so inept, that in the end he will just have tantrums in the White House on how his loyal team hasn't been able to do anything and thus has betrayed him. Because if this man couldn't build a fucking wall, how can we assume that he can simply kick out every thirty third person living in the US?ssu

    Honestly I hope he follows through on this since that was what the people voted for. He doesn't really need congress to do either mass deportations or massive tariffs anyways. If people want to flirt with these ideas then give it to them and either they'll love it or they won't.
  • A modest proposal - How Democrats can win elections in the US
    I'll say it again, I think Biden's domestic policies have been the right ones. I had hoped to see what he could do in the second term.T Clark

    What do you think he would do in a second term?
  • A modest proposal - How Democrats can win elections in the US
    I like Sanders a lot, but I don't think his kind of liberal can win. We need to be more in the center.T Clark

    Sure. My general point is that the Democrats need a more bold vision than what they have been doing which is offering essentially the status quo with some tweaks. I don't think you can really put an end to the populist right otherwise, since this is a time where people want to move on from the neoliberal era.
  • A modest proposal - How Democrats can win elections in the US
    I don't think influence is the primary issue, although they do have to deal with those further to the left. I think they do what they believe, both personally and ideologically.T Clark

    Given how they've treated him it seems more like they fear Bernie than simply disagree with him. Biden was a mediocre politician who came in 4th in Iowa despite being the initial frontrunner in 2020. The reason why he got the nomination was because Bernie was about to win it and the party leaders acted very quickly to rally around Biden before Super Tuesday.

    What would a populist Democrat look like? What issues would they promote?T Clark

    Bernie is the easiest choice but anyone who has a bold vision that's different from the current Democrat party would be welcome as well.

    As I've noted elsewhere in this thread, I think Biden is the best president in my adult lifetime.T Clark

    I'd say yes domestically, particularly with regards to the amount of major legislation he passed. That being said, his foreign policy was abysmal and his ego causing him to run again makes him one of the worst in my opinion. Honestly if he just chose not to run again and Gaza didn't happen we'd be having a different conversation but unfortunately we got to see a very ugly side of him this past year.
  • A modest proposal - How Democrats can win elections in the US
    Sounds like the general assessment I've been hearing is that the party needs to stop being oversensitive social justice warriors while focusing more on bread and butter issues which I certainly agree with. I mean that was the way forward for Democrats since 2016 (less Hillary Clinton with her neoliberalism and obsession over her gender and more Bernie Sanders who obsesses over working class issues).

    The problem is that I feel like party leadership understands the latter but they actively choose not to change in order to maintain their influence. The neoliberal status quo era is over and to be able to push back against the populist right the left needs a populist message of their own. It's clear what that message should be but that makes the elites in the party uncomfortable so they'll do everything they can to push out any potentially inspiring candidates with a bold vision even if it comes at the risk of putting up dull and pathetic figures like Biden.

    I think Palestinian sovereignty is the right thing, but it is a fraught issue here in the US and it's not clear to me who it helps. Both Jewish and Arabic voters tend to vote Democratic. One or the other is going to be pissed off no matter what you do.T Clark

    Yeah but it's hard to see most Jewish voters being mad simply for reining in Netanyahu from committing war crimes vs. Arabs who will be mad if you don't. Obama was able to stand up to Israel on issues like the Iran Nuclear Deal but his support from Jewish voters remained strong.
  • US Election 2024 (All general discussion)
    Well, I mean if Trump just completely cuts most (if not all) climate regulation and accelerates oil extraction then it is most certain we will not reach 1.5 nor even 2c by 2030, essentially guaranteeing the end of civilization.Manuel

    Nobody who's serious thought we'd reach 1.5C anyways even if we collectively got our act together. The 2030 goals are unrealistic too given how we like to flirt with electing climate denying idiots half the time. On the bright side, civilization won't end but we're gonna be way worse off than we would otherwise. The age of endless growth is gonna probably come to a halt at some point, one way or another.
  • US Election 2024 (All general discussion)
    "Majority of Americans support mass deportations" (CBS).Leontiskos

    Out of all the proposals, as with tariffs, it's popular, but the least popular out of the other options. Polls often also show a bigger support for a pathway to citizenship according to this Pew poll for instance. Trump has no interest in that.

    Trump's love of tariffs is idiosyncratic from all political angles, true. But because of that it is not polarizing in any partisan manner.Leontiskos

    Not really. There's still a partisan split on it but apart from that yes it's a pretty controversial proposal, and I've even found his own supporters expressing concerns about it. Their answer is usually that it's one of those non-promises that he says he's gonna do but not really (despite doing it in his first term), somehow to be distinguished from those promises that they like that he will 100% do without question.

    RFK and Gabbard are former Democrats, to name two within his administration.Leontiskos

    I mean RFK is his own case on things like healthcare and vaccines, which is apparently the one thing he's gonna have influence on in a Trump administration. Calling that "moderating" is a bit of a stretch to say the least...

    This seems backwards to me. Trump's public persona was a liability in this election, not a boon. The Democrat platform was bad enough to strongly neutralize that liability. I am amazed at how completely it was neutralized.Leontiskos

    I can only speak to my own personal experience, but when I hear people say they "liked Trump's policies" they usually refer to how they felt about the state of the economy 4 years ago and they think Trump being in office will bring that back. They never really go into specifics about his actual policies even when I persistently press them. They think he will bring down prices but I bet they won't be able to tell you how he would do it because Trump himself is unable to tell you how he would it when he's asked. His actual stated policies include the tariffs and mass deportations I mentioned, tax cuts, and harassing the Fed to cut interest rates again, all inflationary BTW.

    It's not policy proposals but rather nostalgia and in this election the latter took precedence over the former. Very little in this election was really about both candidate's actual plans, making meaningless stunts like Trump working at McDonalds the only other thing on voter's minds when they go to the voting booths. Say what you want about his personality, but he is a funny and charismatic guy, and people like Harris are not and when the latter refuses to go into details about what she believes in, and says she'll just continue Biden's legacy, then voters decided accordingly.

    So what needs to change if "the platform isn't the problem"? A more impressive candidate and a focus on the policy proposals? I am not sure what golden policy proposals the Democrats are supposed to have in their back pocket.Leontiskos

    Messaging means alot which goes back to what I said about Trump being a great salesman and the Democrats being lousy at it. Trump is able to latch on to people's discontent in 2016 and this year about how bad everything is, even if he offered little in the way of solutions in the latter. Harris offered nothing.

    Of course we shouldn't discount the self-imposed disadvantages the Dems had too going into this election. Fact is, we're analyzing an election loss where the Democrat ran a 3 month presidential campaign after taking over their 80 year old incumbent who was already incredibly unpopular during a time where people felt like the current economy wasn't so great.

    Perhaps the reason for the election results are as simple as running a half-baked candidate in a year where the incumbent party was unpopular, especially given how widespread the shifts to the right are. As much as people like to make personal abandonment stories about certain demographics feeling left out it may be more a case of "inflation bad and Trump fix inflation" that affected and moved people this time around. Both could be easily fixed come 2028 if Trump ends up messing something up and the Democrats actually run a proper primary next time.
  • US Election 2024 (All general discussion)
    There’s no surprise as to why they would be. There was no reason to vote FOR her, and the motivation to vote AGAINST Trump, though still the correct move, wasn’t good enough.Mikie

    I'm pretty sure campaigning with the Cheneys while snubbing the left on Gaza contributed to that. Perhaps stop trying to court this mythical sane Republican voter next time.
  • US Election 2024 (All general discussion)
    But Trump moderated the conservatism of the Republicans and he now holds the center.Leontiskos

    I disagree that Trump has moderated alot of his positions. In fact he seems to be moving to the extremes on issues like immigration (where he wants mass deportations) and trade (where he wants to impose a global tariff on all goods). The only area where he's moderated is on abortion and social security but apart from that he's a standard Republican and governed like one in his first term.

    Concede to Trump and adopt the same core positions?Leontiskos

    The Democrat platform isn't the problem since it remains popular (while Trump's ironically enough isn't) but Democrats aren't able to sell it as well as Trump is able to sell himself which goes back to the main problem I see for Democrats.

    Last I checked Harris in the closing stretch of the election avoided going into any policy specifics while using the same old "Trump bad" line of attack that's been used since 2016. It's not surprising why she lost.

    I suppose if I were to look on the bright side of things it's better off for the Democrats that Trump won this time since they were in major need of rebranding anyways. Even if Harris won, I would imagine she'd be a mediocre president who wouldn't accomplish anything and likely lose reelection putting the party in the same spot in 4 years. Losing to Trump twice after barely eeking out a win in 2020 when they ran their "safe" candidate should be a clear sign that what they're doing isn't working. Also puts them in a good position if Trump inevitably screws things up now that he's in power again.
  • US Election 2024 (All general discussion)
    The democratic party needs a total changeover. Take these four years and get rid of the centrist stupid people, find a candidate who's charismatic and gathered around just basic left leaning politics in economy and welfare. Produce a STRONG narrative in marketing with slogans that are quotable and that resonate with the voters who don't understand policy or politics in general.Christoffer

    Also ditch all the social stuff while you're at it. Nobody cares about identity politics or whether someone says mean words.

    The solution isn't that hard, it really isn't. However I worry that the problem isn't that the Dems are incompetent but that they're incompetent by design. It's not like there weren't opportunities these past few election cycles, but the party always made sure that the candidate that was nominated was the candidate that wouldn't rock the boat. Maybe they'll let the party decide next time, though to be honest I'm hoping for more of a dark horse candidate like Obama than some of the obvious options on the table like Newsom.
  • US Election 2024 (All general discussion)
    The real shame will be 4 years of environmental deregulation, and the gutting of science. He’ll try to repeal the IRA, which may be possible now that they’ll have a trifecta (although a lot of republican districts have benefited, and with a slim house majority that may not fly).Mikie

    The IRA was the only reason why I wanted Harris to win since she literally has nothing on climate for me to care about. She would've continued the funding at least. It's fate is largely on the House now though as you say a slim GOP majority will likely not repeal the IRA given it's benefits to red districts. The great thing is that the Republicans don't really care about the debt so whatever tax cuts they have planned will likely just be subsidized through more borrowing.

    Also, and equally damaging, is the free reign of appointing judges, which will further the courts to the right for a generation. I imagine Alito or Thomas will retire, and Sotomayer is in poor health I hear— so he may get another 3. He’ll have a full 4 years of a Republican Senate too, because 2026 there’s no chance Dems take it back, given the map.Mikie

    There's always the possibility of the Dems getting rid of the filibuster and passing all the court proof laws they want. I don't care about the argument that this gives Republicans the same power. If they want to use it to enact some of their preferred legislation like a federal abortion ban then they're more than welcome to try. Maybe we'll see politics actually be about a clash of ideas again.

    But it’ll all likely swing back in ‘28. That is, if the party moves towards Bernie and away from the Clinton-Obama establishment neoliberal crowd.Mikie

    What names do you have in mind to pin our hopes behind? Bernie is too old now (older than Biden) and alot of the names floated before Harris became the nominee like Shapiro and Whitmer aren't really appealing. AOC also lost alot of her luster too since her initial victory in 2018.

    I'm hoping for Jon Stewart personally. He's antiwar so he'll be way better on issues like Gaza and he's Jewish so the Israelis can't call him an anti-Semite. He's an outsider but a big enough celebrity that he can't be dismissed out of hand by the MSM. Plus he's funny and as Trump has shown being funny overrides literally everything in politics.
  • What should the EU do when Trump wins the next election?
    Things seem pretty peaceful to me. Where do you see crisis brewing?frank

    Trade policy since we're talking about it. A global trade war sounds like it'd be pretty bad for everyone including the US ironically enough.

    The US is a declining superpower, China is heading toward superpower status. For a while, I'm guessing the two will be a stable pair for the world.frank

    Exactly and I think this will accelerate that.
  • What should the EU do when Trump wins the next election?
    The global economy is fairly integrated and the US is the primary stabilizer and engine. This is a situation the whole world is creating because everyone benefits from it. Transitioning to a different structure would require some kind of massive crisis. It's not the kind of thing anyone would choose. So China will continue to do the best it can with the US.frank

    One can argue that the current situation is a crisis, or has the potential to lead to one. At the very least I think alot of countries are gonna reassess their reliance on the US, which is to the benefit of countries like China. Even after Trump leaves how long will it be before people elect another lunatic?
  • What should the EU do when Trump wins the next election?
    I'm not supporting Trump here, but I'm just going through his policies. What you bring up here is why he wishes to impose tarriffs. He's using his bully power to limit trade with a nation that needs it, which will weaken them. If they locate other markets in Europe, I would expect tarriffs in Europe. And so what would then happen is that someone takes out a calculator and realizes the better way to make money is not to create their economic policies from moral theories, but instead to maximize profits.Hanover

    Tariffs only work with regards to the US-China/India trade relationship. You mentioned how places like Canada and Japan will invest more in the US because of the deregulation but China and India produce way more goods at a cheaper cost and Trump's tariffs won't do anything to change that.

    If anything starting a global trade war may weaken the US's economic standing on the global stage, as other countries are more likely to become less dependent on the US market and trade with each other, strengthening China's hand. I think that is likely to happen even after Trump leaves office because the US has shown itself to be an unpredictable trading partner. That's not even going into the likely counter tariffs imposed on the US from other nations who don't like the idea of a 20% tariff being imposed on them.

    This is the whole thing about him wanting to force NATO nations to pay for their own defense. He's threatening Europe with insecurity by underfunding NATO unless European nations better foot the bill. This fits his "everything is a deal" persona.Hanover

    Yeah but I don't see the end goal of all this to cut spending domestically and fund things like, say, healthcare. That may be what people like Bernie would do but Trump in his first term has increased military spending like every other president and I've seen no indications that he would change that in what he says. He only seems interested in NATO countries paying their fair share for it's own sake.

    I'm not getting into the weeds of what causes what because I don't know enough about it. I can say that fuel costs are an important part of everyone's budget and they've increased. Sam's Club sells gas at like 10 cents cheaper per gallon and cars are up and down the street to save the $2.00 on a tank. It's part of inflation control.Hanover

    Gas prices have gone down since 2022 but we haven't seen the costs of other goods go down in turn. Inflation has consistently been happening for the past century while gas prices have fluctuated. There is no connection between gas prices being low and the cost of everyday items.
  • What should the EU do when Trump wins the next election?
    1. The US economy will boom under this plan, as global change regulations are expensive. The US will outproduce the EU and will attract places like Canada and Japan to engage in business with them. It is doubtful those nations will prioritize the ethics of global resource management over reduced prices.Hanover

    Yeah but it probably won't beat places like China and India given how much more lax their regulations are. Those are the countries they need to compete with.

    4. This is exactly what Trump is trying to motivate. He's trying to save on defense costs by pushing it back on Europe.Hanover

    Has he suggested decreasing defense spending before? It sounds like he will just continue the status quo of the US being the biggest spender on defense by far. I think it appeals to his tough guy persona.

    5. A shift toward more drilling will reduce oil prices and forestall climate friendly alternatives like electric cars and the like, which many Americans have no interest in anyway. Any drop in cost of living, even if temporary, will make Trump very popular because inflation of basic needs (like fuel, housing, and food) have risen drastically recently.Hanover

    There's only so much more drilling that can be done to reduce oil prices (contrary to what some on the right say the Biden administration is overseeing record production right now). Also contrary to what Trump says, there is little correlation between the price of other goods the price of oil and gas.
  • US Election 2024 (All general discussion)
    Never act in panic. This was a big mistake the democrats did this year. In panic they replaced Old Joe with laughing Kamalahaha.Eros1982

    I can point to alot of things that Dems did wrong (like running with the Cheneys while snubbing the Palestinians in their base) but replacing Joe was one of the only reasonable things they did this election cycle. Joe Biden was ultimately the biggest drag on the party even after dropping out and his connection to Kamala was what doomed her more than anything.

    The problem with the Dems was what we saw these past few election cycles: the Dems never listen to their base. They could've let the voters decide who should best represent them but why do that and risk someone who the party establishment can't control when they can have one of their goons be nominated instead? The last time they didn't do that was in 2008 with a dark horse named Obama and look how that turned out for them. Clinton, Biden, and Harris were all terrible candidates. Clinton was massively unpopular when she ran in 2016, Biden couldn't even win the first few primaries despite being the frontrunner, and Harris didn't even get any votes in any of her primaries. But they were all nominated anyways and often through some shady tactics that undermined any opposition. Maybe next time they will let the party decide, but who knows if there will be a next time.