Won't fly — jorndoe
If I turn to ReArm Europe there might be an interesting leverage here. If ReArm Europe is successful, I think Putin got exactly the opposite from what he wanted. Sure, a bit of land but suddenly a very powerful anti-Putin war machine next door. Avoiding that coalition materialising is probably worth quite something to him, which might just be the pressure he needs to go along with peace — Benkei
Of course, anybody ever having negotiated with Russians knows the caveats are an effective no to any just peace. There will be no peace unless the Russians get shit for free: Ukraine joining NATO or EU being off the table, annexing land, whatever. It's more important than ever there's a single front and it's impossible due to the orange monkey but also shit holes like Hungary and the Netherlands. — Benkei
Yeah, now. Not back then. Back then the very people condemning Russia today were defending the US.
Typical good guy bad guy stuff. That’s seemingly the limit of political imagination. Putin is an evil guy by bent on conquering Europe and re-establishing the Soviet Union. “Same old bullshit.” — Mikie
Despite the fact that Imperial Russia under Tsar Putin wants to conquer all of Ukraine and march on Berlin, they're rejecting temporary cease-fire deals and insist on a long-term peace agreement. — Tzeentch
Alliances are a lot more than transactions like buying a service, just as soldiers of fortune are far less trustworthy than soldiers that have taken an oath to serve their country. — ssu
Well, the US has tried to warn/persuade the EU to align more with the US interest, especially Germany. But since a soft-power approach didn’t work as desired. Now the US may be wanting to test historical allies and see if aggressive diplomacy can do the trick. Consequently, as I said in an earlier post, “for Trump, abandonment could be a policy goal or a bargaining chip. Europeans now have to prepare for both scenarios: https://www.iss.europa.eu/publications/briefs/trump-card-what-could-us-abandonment-europe-look” — neomac
One can just speculate without much evidence to support it. My idea is that, first, Trump cares much less about codified agreements and international law, than personal agreements between strong leaders of powerful/threatening countries. — neomac
Well, an authoritarian turn in the US under Trump can likely increase Trump’s trustability in Putin’s eyes. — neomac
I’ve already commented on this in previous posts [1]. In short, even if we discount Trumps’ personal resentment toward Europeans, Biden and Zelensky, and penchant for authoritarianism or egomania, he’s still addressing issues which preceded him and will likely follow his mandates, in ways that are more consistent and arguably more sustainable than their predecessors’. — neomac
American-led globalisation empowered Russia and China so that they could challenge US global supremacy. If this is the case, then it’s logic that the US is compelled to break down American-led globalisation which includes a system of alliance and international institutions which are no longer functional to the US. — neomac
Ukraine is being blamed for not throwing down their arms and inviting Russia to occupy their country. It's completely nuts, as is most of the other stuff he's doing. — Wayfarer
It's just bullying is all it is. He has the idea that playing nice concedes too much. That's how all ruthless people rule. I just think it will be more effective than you do. — Hanover
Russia had an opportunity to become a respected partner and actor on the world stage when Relations between the West and Russia were good following the fall of USSR. But it was all squandered and thrown away by a tinpot dictator. All it required was a bit of humility in accepting that the smaller now independent states that used to be in the USSR had a right to autonomy. — Punshhh
Then why don't the US citizens who don't want this... do something about it? — Christoffer
But where does this idea come from that Trump wants to 'ally Russia'?
That's literally the dumbest thing I've ever heard. — Tzeentch
t is uniquely suited for that because it's an offshoot of Christian morality that holds that morality is objective and universal — ChatteringMonkey
Thrasymachus was allways right folks, justice is the interest of the stronger... the liberal democratic world order was there to serve our interests. — ChatteringMonkey
News is breaking that Trump is halting military aid to Ukraine. — Wayfarer
Sure, Europeans will be compelled to look for new alliances, like China, if the US is turning into its enemy.
However the first 2 related problems that come to mind to me are the following:
1. China is pretty faraway from Europe and all routes for commercial and security support are mostly under the control of Russia and the US, one way or the other.
2. Europe is not really ONE political subject. It’s many, and they are unable to strongly converge on many security and economic issues (local nationalism contributes to keeping divided, without the interference of foreign powers). And the US strategy is to avoid to overstretch but still preserve an affordable/sustainable sphere of influence over the part of Europe that will submit to its demands for business and/or security and shut up (“How can the U.S. get trading and security partners to agree to such a deal? First, there is the stick of tariffs. Second, there is the carrot of the defense umbrella and the risk of losing it.”), because they are unable to do otherwise under the pressure of the Russian threat, economic recessions, islamic immigration, corrupt politicians, climate change, gender equality, you name it. — neomac
My understanding is that on one side, the pivot to Asia, namely the incumbency of competing superpower like China, has been a strategic concern for the US politics for a good decade. So an economically/military weak Russia, subordinate to China (which is also eroding Russian influence on its eastern flank), in desperate need to regain its superpower status (like at the end of the Second World War) can be instrumental to the US in exchange for a strategic partnership. — neomac
On the other side, Europe has spent 30 years of globalisation enriching themselves and the US enemies (Russia and China) at the expense of the US, instead of taking a greater responsibility in opening its market to the US, and defending the West through soft-power (instead of spinning populist anti-Americanism, complacency toward anti-Western sentiments in the Rest), and also by military means. — neomac
As Russia and China are using populist nationalism against the transatlantic alliance, the US will be using European populist nationalism to turn their countries into a submissive client status, because they are incapable of turning into strong allies (like Israel). They just acted as US parasites, so they will be treated as such. — neomac
If American nationalists wish to keep the US as the strongest superpower, which they most likely do, then Russia can be very much instrumental to contain China (and Iran to make Israel happy!). This likely includes the idea of keeping China and Europe separated. The idea of using Russia to counter China as the biggest competitor to the US supremacy is e.g. what Mearsheimer kept suggesting roughly since the beginning of this conflict.
On the other side it is unlikely that Russia is happy to turn into some dumb sidekick of China. Russia current economic, military and political weakness can be exploited by Trump to turn Russia into US’s sidekick (this move reminds me of Nixon's opening to Mao’s China against the Soviet Union). And to make this proposal of partnership credible to Russia, Trump needs to blame everything on Biden, Zelensky and European allies, make them pay for Russia’s aggression of Ukraine and make a good deal of concessions to Putin. — neomac
Tech-bros are getting EU laws/tax against American Big Tech down and prevent the formation of European big-tech competitors (keep an eye on AI and how AI will be integrated within military industry or how American crypto currencies will be injected into the European system). Bannon with his fascist-leaning mindset and propaganda aspires to be the guru of European far right movements (see Salvini in Italy who is waving between becoming a Putin's bitch and Trump's bitch, or both), so he helps steal the European far-right movements/propaganda from Russia. All three are helping each other. — neomac
Power has gone to his head. What else could you say about the Mar-a-Gaza idea or the annexation of Greenland (even if that was already floated in the first Trump administration). — ssu
If they wouldn't care, why then the hostility? No, really. Vance and Trump have absolutely no intension to be on the side of Ukraine... or on Western Europe. They want to cozy up with Russia and that's why the attack and the hostility. They are pressuring Ukraine to take what Russia wants, hence they are here doing Putin's bidding. — ssu
Yes, I agree, I suspect there is Kompromat on Trump which is being leveraged to pull his strings. Indeed there did seem to be a tell (when responding to Zelenskyy) in his ramblings about the way Putin had been attacked with a so called Biden scam. Referring to the Hunter Biden laptop, where he emphasised something disgusting happening in Hunter’s bedroom. I read this as there is something on a laptop disgusting in a bedroom, but Trump was on the tape rather than Hunter. — Punshhh
Yes the pragmatic solution is a ceasefire with the line drawn where the current frontline lies. With a new iron curtain erected. But we are a long way from that on both sides. — Punshhh
Europe is still one of their biggest markets, a stable continent could integrate further via the belt and road they are already building. — ChatteringMonkey
China doesn't want a world war, it wants to sell its products. — ChatteringMonkey
If Europe builds up a unified European security and foreign policy to replace Nato it could become one of the powers in a multi-polar world. It's not going to be easy, but with an economy 10 or more times the size of Russia it shouldn't be impossible either. — ChatteringMonkey
Do understand that the US under Trump isn't in support of Ukraine, Trump is against Ukraine. Ukraine is the problem. Ukraine won't bow down to what Russia wants, so Zelensky has to go! — ssu
There never was a deal. Putin had already pulled back from negotiations once the rare earth narrative was adopted. It’s all just Trump chaos. — Punshhh
Trump and Vance are in Putin's camp and talking heads for the Russian dictator. How else would it go? Zelensky has to be honest to his people, who are fighting this war. — ssu
I am :100: behind Zelenskyy. — Wayfarer
Build up European security and foreign policy apart from the US, and try to normalise relations with Russia and China. This is the only way forward long term. We will need them (and they need us) to keep the continent stable, we need them economically, and we might need them to stop the US from derailing the world into a downward spiral. — ChatteringMonkey
A similar MEUGA might push European unification into overdrive to rebuild a militarily self-sufficient world power. As Trump already suggested military expenditure needs to dramatically increase. But instead of 5% the military expenditure should be nearer to 25% or even more if Europe is to survive. — magritte
It would make sense for the DOGE to use AI to sift through administrative records of government contracts for suspected waste and corruption. Younger people with marketable skills and near retirees took the bonus and bailed out. They're eliminating social services as 'Marxist' and 'woke' agencies as promised to Trump supporters. But I can't tell how they so quickly single out individuals to be fired. If it is other than competence, is it by tweets? I imagine they're keeping all Trump supporters. — magritte
One gets a bigger bang for the buck by disabling agencies like the IRS, which is laying off 6000 more recent hires (made largely under Biden, I would guess). Weak agencies just can't do as much to get in the way of liars, thieves, knaves, and scoundrels as strong, fully staffed agencies can. — BC
Trump is lazy and intellectually lazy. He will want a deal quick and if it's then Ukraine saying no and Europeans saying something else, he might just walk away from everything. Personally I think Trump's fixation with Putin and his hate of woke Europeans will prevail. He truly doesn't see any importance at NATO. Trump is totally incapable of understanding that he is giving Americas foes the best birthday present ever by dismantling the Superpower status of the US. — ssu
As you probably already know, we were literally one word away from nuclear war in the Cuban Missile Crisis.
We can't keep playing tightrope forever, eventually someone will fall and by extension everyone else will. — Manuel
I don't see a world in which Russia retreats from the territories they conquered in this war. They would rather commit collective suicide. I just don't see them doing this. — Manuel
Maybe I am completely wrong - maybe they will in some future scenario, swap land for peace. But then Ukraine can never be a part of NATO.
No option here is one in which Ukraine has a favorable hand. It's a question of how much they will lose. They can lose more or lose less. That's how I see it. — Manuel
But why does NATO exist? It's stated goal was to defend against the Soviet Union. That collapsed and NATO remained. — Manuel
You are probably aware that Putin asked Clinton is Russia could join NATO but was rejected. Had Russia been in NATO, this war would not have occurred. — Manuel
They only remaining "threat" is China. They're a threat to Taiwan. Not to the world. — Manuel
Last I saw Kiev was functioning. It wasn't like Baghdad was left.
I mean full and total devastation of Kiev. — Manuel
Yeah, in an ideal world they would just take hits and not do anything. This is not that world. — Manuel
Yeah, they will take more land. It might be a forever war. But negotiations have to happen. — Manuel
Ukraine simply cannot beat Russia now the numbers don't add up. — Manuel
That's right this does not threaten them. But it is US and UK soldiers using US and UK machinery firing into Russia. — Manuel
Imagine Russian missiles being shot with Russian technology from Cuba into the US. What would happen? — Manuel
They probably will hit Ukraine very hard — Manuel
But if these attacks continue, they have to reply in kind to the US or Britain. — Manuel
I don't know how much more evidence one needs to know that Russia is being serious. It is being left without options. — Manuel
I wager that the Americans view 'limited nuclear war' as an excellent means of taking out two potential geopolitical rivals who stand to benefit from a US-China war: Russia and Europe. — Tzeentch
What you'll have is a total curling up in the foetal position while our countries are incinerated. — Tzeentch
This is horrifying. Worse that many American and some Europeans think this is a good idea - not all of them to be clear.
I don't understand how people think this is good. We are standing at the precipice of annihilation. — Manuel
At this point in time, Ukraine is lost and will soon be pressured to the negotiating table by Trump. Even though I understand that it will be a painful process for Ukraine, I consider it to be in Ukraine's best interest. The alternative is an even longer war with an even bleaker outlook, from which Ukraine stands to gain absolutely nothing. — Tzeentch
And now Ukraine can send missiles into Russia. — Manuel
Does this site have anyone on it who can actually read what someone says rather than attack strawmen of their own invention? — Clearbury
That is unjust. It'd be unjust if I tried to do that in respect of others, and so it is unjust of teh government to try and do it. — Clearbury
The other thing governments do - and that seems partly definitive of them - is extract payment for its services with menaces, regardless of whether anyone to whom the services are being provided has contracted them.
On its injustice: I take it that we can all agree that if the local mafia turn up at a business and say to the business owner "we are going to provide you with protection and you must pay us 30% of your profits or we'll smash your business up and imprison you" then this would be unjust behaviour on the mafia's part. — Clearbury
if there is no relevant difference between a government and a mafia except in terms of how effective they have been at monopolizing the use of violence, — Clearbury
You're taxed to pay for the police whether you wish to be or not. And if you refuse to pay your taxes, the government will eventually imprison you. — Clearbury
Trump is a demagogue — Wayfarer
Be afraid? This was a photoshopped joke post on Twitter/X captioned, "Let that sink in." Musk was a Democrat just three years ago. Now he has been demonized for political reasons, and many have been taken in by the propaganda. — Leontiskos
There is little moral underpinnings to your definition of crime save that the act upsets some people. It lacks any clear principle and would treat any vice as a crime if enough people were against it. — NOS4A2
Does your government not deal in drugs? — NOS4A2
What is a crime to you, then? — NOS4A2