Comments

  • The Vulnerable World Hypothesis
    Yet we don't call engineers scientists, but engineers.

    There really is a difference between science and technology. Your simply not using the definition of technology and just putting it together with everything being 'science'. However there's a reason why the standard definitions are different. Let's define first what they mean:

    Science is the study of the natural world by collecting data through a systematic process called the scientific method. (Human sciences then study the world that we have created ourselves)

    Technology is when we apply that science to create devices that can solves problems and do tasks.

    There's a fundamental difference between the two. The power that you are talking about comes really from technology, all those devices starting from steam engines to microchips to nuclear weapons.

    And I wouldn't say that modern science has shifted away from speculative knowledge. Science has become a huge field with academia and research institutes where a lot of that new study has gone to applied sciences and hence basically to technological research. How you describe it would mean that scientific study has somehow diminished when it hasn't done so. There's still going on that original science stuff, no matter how much studies are directed by grants.

    Hence what you refer to is more the situation when people first have a problem, want to solve the problem with new technology and then the engineers ask scientist if the technology would be even possible. Well, the scientists cannot just invent new scientific realities to give the engineers new ways to make technology work.
  • The Vulnerable World Hypothesis
    Sorry, if I relate 'science' to using the scientific method, not a tool for gaining power.
  • Ukraine Crisis
    Now I get it, you view US empire as good and Russian empire as bad. Therefore, the US is justified in moving its military hardware and system closer to Russia. My view is more complicated than this dichotomy.boethius
    There's a lot to be critical about of US actions, but when it comes to Europe, here fortunately the US hasn't made it's biggest blunders. On the contrary, I would say.

    And let's think about this.

    Ask yourself, how many NATO countries have been invaded by the US or other NATO countries, when the US has thought the countries were out of line?

    With the Warsaw Pact, it did this action basically twice. In Hungary and in Czechoslovakia. And at least general Jaruzelski insisted that he declared martial law in order to prevent a Russian invasion in 1981. This shows what the actual objective was for the Warsaw Pact for the Soviet Union.

    So has now Russia changed so much from those times with it's Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO)?

    How well did the alliance with Russia protect Armenia from Azeris? How much did Russia come to the help of Armenia?

    But yes, it did come to help of the government of Kazakhstan to quell riots. And that actually fits quite well the previous Warsaw Pact mentality.
  • The Vulnerable World Hypothesis
    Why use scientific progress and not simply technological progress?

    Our weapons have become more deadly because of technological advances. Science is a bit different. Quantum physics tells us something about how the world works. Yet that Science itself didn't give us nuclear weapons, they are applications of science. Hence use of technology gave us nuclear weapons. So why be against science and think scientific progress makes us vulnerable?

    There's a lot of examples that show that we aren't as vulnerable as earlier: we don't die as early as before. If there are bad harvests, we don't in the industrialized World die of famine. Actually famines have become more rare. We don't just have to raise our hands up and hope that the God's wouldn't be angry at us, we have an idea just how we changing (destroying?) our environment.

    Therefore global government and policing supported by global government is it appears the most effective solution to prevent self-destruction caused by scientific progress.SpaceDweller
    I don't think so.

    Besides, global government would lead to excessive centralization and yes, a lot lof people all around the World might come together... to oppose this singular government.

    Sovereign states working not as an union, but a confederacy, would in my view work far more better. The concept of nation state has been proven quite effective. Also when there are multiple different countries trying different things, we aren't all then destined to make the same mistakes.
  • Israel killing civilians in Gaza and the West Bank
    When was the last time you saw a crowd of angry Jews surrounding and protesting in front of a mosque and disrupting their services?BitconnectCarlos
    There's few mosques here and very few Jews where I live. And people are quite well behaved.

    It's a bit different in "Holy Land", where religious zealots have a field day:




    Or dancing inside the Ibrahim Mosque?


    Same mosque btw where Baruch Goldstein shot 39 Muslims and wounded 150 others before being killed by the crowd (and hence is a hero for the Zionist extremists).

    And of course you have the religious zealots on the other side also, naturally, which people here don't support even if they are critical about Israel's actions...

    GettyImages-1233087143-1536x1016.jpg

    Christianity is weak in the West. We believe in nothing. Western birth rates are low.BitconnectCarlos
    So you assume fundamentalists make a country strong? I beg to differ. In fact, I find the whole narrative of "the West being weak", especially "weaker than it's enemies" to be a load of bullshit.

    And to discuss the demographic transition, it's also something that it isn't either so straight forward as people might think:

    6a00e54ecbb69a883301b8d0cd3013970c-pi
  • Israel killing civilians in Gaza and the West Bank
    American controversial policies are also what Europeans must swallow to keep the front united, otherwise they have to struggle for greater decision power on the coalition, but what are the odds to succeed, really?neomac
    Actually here NATO works (...or doesn't work as a tool of US policy): only few American endeavors have been so that all NATO participates in them. And many times allies can opt out or simply give no actual support. Hence when an American President comes up with a too controversial policy of striking someone, it can be so that nobody shows up. This happened humiliatingly to Obama with Syria, if you remember. Not even the UK showed up and Obama had to backtrack away from his line drawn on the sand.

    Besides, it has been more of the US simply changing it's mind without consulting to it's allies. Here Afghanistan is a great example: the US withdrawal came as a surprise to the other alliance members and they had to react to the whims of the US policy. Something that can be seen now in the support of Ukraine too.

    On the other side, the more the European strategic interest diverges from the US national interest and the European partnership turns unexploitable by the US, the more the US may be compelled to make Europe unexploitable to its hegemonic competitors too.neomac
    To me this sounds a bit confusing. I think Europe is quite happy with the present, but it's the US who has these 'pivot-people' calling for 'pivot to Asia' all the time. Which is confusing.
  • Does Tarski Undefinability apply to HOL ?
    You're off to the races into transfinite-order logics. If I understand the question of the title, it is equivalent to asking if Godel's incompleteness (theorem) is entirely resolved at some higher level of logic. My guess is not.tim wood

    I cannot give a rigorous answer, but I agree with this. If Tarski's undefinability theorem is basically that "arithmetical truth cannot be defined in arithmetic", or that true Gödel numbers are not definable arithmetically, meaning there’s no first-order formula for this, I think it does go for higher order logics. For those higher order logics there is their own true but unprovable Gödel number.

    But I'm the amateur here, so don't quote me.

    (PS, why two threads?)
  • Israel killing civilians in Gaza and the West Bank
    People are more complex than Pavlov’s dogs. Look at the Taliban, the IRA, and Viet cong. Did the wars waged end them?ENOAH
    With two example, yes, they were victorious, militarily. And if you refer to the original IRA, 1916-1922, that was victorious too, they did get their independent Ireland! But what's the point here?

    Also, Hamas. Did their horrendous attack end the plight of their people? No, if anything, it threatens the end of their people, period.ENOAH
    You really think Israel will ethnically cleanse or kill seven million Palestinians? I don't think so.

    Realpolitik, far from suggesting war, actually ought to be more pragmatic, face the facts, and sit down for some immediate, open minded, bite the bullet, willing to compromise, negotiations. Both sides.ENOAH
    Yet for that you should have leadership that would actually show true leadership, think forward and restrain from the emotional response for revenge. And that's difficult, to restrain people from the worst of their emotions yet to show that you do feel with them.

    Start from obvious things: yes, try to destroy Hamas, but don't create a famine. I've again and again said one simple example: fight like the Americans.
  • Ukraine Crisis
    If you're point is Russia, being an empire, will seek dominate where it can (where it does being its "sphere of influence") its expand when it can: sure, obviously, but that's exactly my point that given Russia's propensity to expandboethius
    ? ? ?

    So if Russia you accept that Russia has this propensity to expand, how then view NATO enlargement is this US plot against Russia. More of a ploy of the neighboring countries to get under NATO security umbrella before they have a conflict with Russia.

    Actual historians very much disagree with your view.boethius
    Well I've studied history in my own country and I think I know the history, so please say just to whom you refer this idea.

    Had Ukraine accepted the peace deal on offer at the start of the war,boethius
    Stop right here.

    There was an attempt to make peace talks. I don't recall a written peace offer on the table from Putin. Perhaps unconditional surrender is for you a "peace offer".

    Besides, this is irrelevant as Russia has formally annexed more territories (partly one that it doesn't even fully control) and hence this is quite meaningless.

    I can also continue saying "If Putin had only had large exercises on the border and never attacked Ukraine!". Yeah, but that didn't happen, he did invade.
  • Israel killing civilians in Gaza and the West Bank
    There's a plethora of violence, vandalism and a lot of emotions. Yet it's still politics.

    The problem is really that people think their emotional response, usually revenge, would work. It doesn't. Basically with retaliation they simply reaffirm to the other side how evil they are and how right the other side is in not seeking a peaceful settlement.

    Israel not allowing food to the civilians won't cower the Palestinians to give up an seek a settlement, but will harden their resolve. If not now, then the future generations will remember. The current leadership of Hamas were kids during the first Intifada. And terrorist attacks from the Palestinian side won't cower the Israelis, but reinforce their attitudes that you cannot negotiate with the Palestinians. The policy that the Likud party has cherished from it's birth.

    The only thing that matters in their minds is the absolute righteousness of the cause.Moses
    I think on both sides there's ample amounts of this around. Especially when religion is involved, it's always extremely ugly. People are doing God's work, on both sides.

    They are zealots who never cared about much larger amounts of muslim suffering elsewhere.Moses
    American protesters usually protest about what their own country does. Some can protest at a third country (like China) if their country continues to have ties with such a country. But if you have a somewhere a civil war where one or the both sides have come to the conclusion that genocide is the only way out, then you have huge amounts of suffering. And not much emotional outbursts of anger. But it's not done in their name, when neither side is supported by their government (by weapons etc.). Actually in these cases, the US is against these states of actions. Like in Syria or in Sudan with Darfur.
  • It’s Bizarre That These People Are Still Alive
    If you were in a coma starting in 1967, and woke up today 56 years later, much of the following list would make you feel right at home.Mikie
    And just how many persons from 1967 would know many from that list? Somebody not from Georgia surely will have difficulties to know the Georgia State Senate member Jimmy Carter, who had then only lost a Georgia gubernatorial election. You also have to be quite a Space fan to know Buz Aldrin in 1967, even if he then had I guess two space missions on his record (and the longest space walk). Then it was the Mercury Astronauts that were famous. Not the Gemini and the Apollo missions were just going on...

    Makes me think how many will be around when it is 2080. Yep, there surely will be those that are now for example 10-29 years and we have no idea of them how powerful and well known they will be in the 2080's. However, there are those who we might know.

    Justin Bieber, 86 years.
    Jennifer Lawrence, 90 years.
    Taylor Swift, 91 years.
    Cristiano Ronaldo, 95 years.
    Madonna, 122 years.

    Now, when they estimate that people born now will likely to reach an average age of 100, I'm sure the list will be long.
  • Israel killing civilians in Gaza and the West Bank
    Yes, I would argue that. However, differently from the British empire, Israel is fighting for its own nation state in Palestine, not to preserve an empire.neomac
    And Palestinians are continuing to fight for independence. But yes, this ought to be obvious that Israel isn't a colonial venture where "the Europeans" can just go home. Algeria had roughly 1,6 million ethnic French many of whom had been born in Algeria, the Pied-Noirs. Yet it wasn't only them fighting the Algerian war. The example of Algeria might have been an example that Palestinians hoped to repeat, but they are not fighting the US.

    But naturally this goes both ways: Palestinians haven't either a place to go back. But if some Palestinians have illusions or fantasies that the Israelis would migrate back to Europe (or likely to the US), there are many people who have similar illusions about the Palestinians. You have even in this thread many examples of people believing the Palestinians being something "artificial" construct, and that Palestinians simply should move to somewhere else in the Arab world.

    You are making it all about Netanyahu. To me it isn’t. Even though Netanyahu is politically hawkish, and willing to exploit the current conflict for political convenience, STILL he has the support of the Israelis.neomac
    The obvious thing here is that there's not just one way to fight a war. There are many ways. Starting from the way you approach the civilian population. I've made the point right from the start in October last year that Israel should approach the fighting just like the US approached it's fight against Al Qaeda and ISIS in Iraq: to take into consideration the civilian population. But it didn't. It went with no political goals, hopes of "voluntary transfer" of Palestinians somewhere else and the creating a famine. This has been a strategic mistake in the long run, but this government isn't thinking in the long run. It's thinking about the next day and it's popularity among the voters.

    So my conclusion is that the US may STILL be compelled to support Israel against Hamas because Israel is a strategic ally either for power balance in the Middle East and/or for domestic power balance.neomac
    As long as the Arab side seems to be so vulnerable to simply collapse, this is true. Prior it was the influence of Soviet Union that was the reason why the US fervently supported Israel. And when the Cold War ended, Israel thought for a while that they had to go with the peace process because the US was losing interest. Not so, as there are plenty of Christians in the US for whom Israel isn't just a country, but part of their religion and who hence are adamant supporters of Israel. As one PF member who has only prior discussed religious matters in the forum, declared that Israel was dong God's work. So it's not AIPAC and the American jews (who many oppose Netanyahu's administration), it the Bible belt Evangelicals.

    Hence even if Egypt is an ally of the US, Saudi-Arabia is the ally of US (and Iraq was occupied and should have a Pro-US government), the US does feel cautious about how strong this relationship is. Iran and the fall of the Shah and the present relations with the country tells a lot. So could it happen in Saudi-Arabia? Or Egypt?

    If the Arab states could integrate more and speak more like the EU, then that could change. But that would also change Israel's position too.

    We have seen how Hamas and Houthis managed to upgrade their military threats against Israel and the West, and how they want to have a role in the international arena, so we can’t underestimate how their threat can evolve in future scenarios.neomac
    Iran has here learnt the hard way to use proxies. They learnt it from operation Praying Mantis. Hence the use of proxy forces. It should be noteworthy that to attack the supporter of a proxy is truly an escalation. Just think of it if Russia would act the same to countries that support Ukraine. Just to give weapons and training isn't enough to be a real belligerent in a war.

    The miniwar that the US fought with Iran during Operation Praying Mantis:
    img021.jpg?itok=FW-w5fqQ
  • Israel killing civilians in Gaza and the West Bank
    Got it. :ok: Brilliant, groundbreaking analysis once again.Mikie
    Hey, Israel's doing Gods work! You should be rooting for Israel, or otherwise you want Israel’s destruction and radical Islam to prevail.

    That's says it all of this member and his contribution to this discussion.

    No wonder they changed this thread to the Lounge.
  • Ukraine Crisis
    It's really about influencing the American politicians that think the war can be negotiated to an end by not giving support to Ukraine. So basically Putin is pinning his hopes on people like Matt Gaetz and the like.

    And this of course resonates to an audience that simply sums up everything that the US supports as "forever wars" that are basically destined to fail and enthusiastically devours Russian propaganda.
  • Israel killing civilians in Gaza and the West Bank
    Everyone, please restrict your criticism to the organizations involved and not the ethnic groups they happen to be members of. Negative generalizations from events in this conflict to chracteristics of Jews or Arabs etc will not be tolerated.Baden
    :up:
  • Israel killing civilians in Gaza and the West Bank
    Has that been condemned yet?Moses
    I think that everybody here has condemned it. I even made the point that even Hamas admitted to "excesses" happening during Al-Aqsa Flood (October 7th), which is quite hypocritical. Nobody has denied that Hamas has perpetuated warcrimes.

    Yet it seems that any critique of the way Netanyahu administration in dealing with the situation is viewed by some as "anti-semitic" and "pro-Hamas". As if the only thing in a philosophy forum is to rally around the flag and show your support to your side, thus repeat the mantra's given by your government. Well, that's not in the spirit of a discussion, especially from those who like philosophy.
  • Israel killing civilians in Gaza and the West Bank
    ↪ssu, don't forget the Sunni (85-90% worldwide) versus Shia (Iran, Iraq, Azerbaijan, Bahrain) conflict. Internal to Islam, they're not seeing eye-to-eye, to the point of violence now and then.jorndoe
    Indeed yes. This is basically the Saudi-Iranian conflict that was fought in Yemen, for example. But also in Syria.

    The Arab nations are no longer completely clueless when it comes to military matters, and recent history is filled with examples of how to counter the traditional western way of war (even carried out by the Arabs themselves).Tzeentch
    The Arab nations haven't been ever completely clueless when it comes to military matters, actually. But that Israel's neighbors have been poor Third World countries is a fact. And Soviet equipment and tactics weren't up to par with the Israelis (shown by Israeli aircraft winning an air battle against Soviet pilots flying the Soviet equipment during the War of Attrition, see here). Saudi Arabia did actually send couple battalions to Syria and one brigade into Jordan (which wasn't fighting, but still) yet these forces came so late that they didn't see action.

    The Lebanon war of 2006 is indeed an example where Hezbollah had obviously improved it's fighting abilities from prior. The ability of lower leaders (and those usually referred as non-commisioned officers)
    to take the initiative had been improved. Yet the performance of the Saudi and allied forces in the Yemen war was still poor. Similar equipment used by US forces wasn't used like the US forces, and the Houthis (at first literally fighting in flip flops) showed just how a badly equipped but determined foe could defeat the Saudis. That the Saudi monarchy is more afraid of it's own armed forces themselves making a military coup is shown from the fact that the force is cut into two with the National Guard and the Army and that there isn't any conscription, which would be optional for a country that had less people than Egypt, Iraq or Iran.

    Saudi Abrams destroyed by the Houthis in 2018:
    1426244_800.jpg?w=800&ssl=1

    Syria is devastated by it's own civil war and is incapable of doing anything about the Israeli strikes in the country. Egypt has it's own potential domestic problems and still wouldn't opt to fight Israel, even if the population is extremely angry about Israel's actions against the Palestinians. And Turkey, well, it doesn't have borders with Israel. Overall what is lacking is the coordination among Arab states and Turkey. And as @jorndoe mentioned, we shouldn't forget the sunni/shia split.

    The only sides that actually have anticipated to face off with Israel is Iran and it's creation, Hezbollah. They have tried to encounter Israeli air superiority simply with long range missiles and rockets and have opted not to try to fight a conventional war against it.
  • Israel killing civilians in Gaza and the West Bank
    The West can "forget the issue", but the geopolitical shift with Arab nations aligning to BRICS and taking a bigger role cannot simply be ignored. Or rather one may ignore it at their own peril.Tzeentch
    I was referring to the West and especially to the US. To the Middle East, well, it's quite laughable to talk about this being only a temporary setback in the warming of Saudi-Israeli relations.

    Yet I think those countries close to the US will simply to have ties both to the US and to the east.

    Israel is a small island in a sea of historical and potential enemies, and it is cultivating the seeds of a gigantic disaster within and without its own borders.

    I honestly think you don't fully understand what is at stake here.

    The only reason Israel still exists is because of its "special relationship" with the United States and basically the promise that the United States will come to Israel's rescue if it were ever in real trouble.
    Tzeentch
    I think the IDF and it's performance in the earlier wars is the reason, not only the just the assistance from the US. Also Syria and Egypt got quite a lot more assistance from a Superpower earlier than they could actually afford. And Egypt has now also gotten assistance from the US. Not so much as Israel, but still.

    And don't forget Israel's nuclear deterrence. And it's conventional deterrence and technological advantage. And also that the Arab states, Iran and Turkey aren't all in friendly relations together and aren't good at coordinating an unified response. Not so long ago Iran attacked the Saudi's through the Houthis. Not long ago Qatar was nearly attacked by it's neighbors. Turkey, Bahrain and Jordan have at least called home their embassador. I think Egypt has not. So the bunch has far more quarrels than the EU has with Hungary. Iran was called to participate in a meeting with the Arab states, but that didn't go much more forward.

    At least the situation was discussed last November with the Arab states, Iran and Turkey:
    67374953_1004.webp

    The military balance has not changed and also the US still there to aid Israel. What is changing is the perception in the West dramatically, and the real threat is a pariah status as Apartheid South Africa had.

    The next real step would be sanctions, that for the export oriented Israel is very toxic. But only in the long run. And a lot would still have to happen. Just like this discussion shows, there are those who do support Israel and the actions it has taken.
  • Israel killing civilians in Gaza and the West Bank
    US support for Israel is tanking US credibility pretty much across the globe. Arab nations are an especially important factor in this, because US influence in the region is rapidly waning and basically all Arab nations are aligning themselves with the BRICS, threatening to cut the US out.

    I think soon the Israeli government and the lobby will realise that there are in fact things more important to the United States than US-Israel relations, and that overplaying their hand is going to fundamentally hamstring their position in the future.
    Tzeentch
    It's not so severe as you make it to sound, because once the operation ends and we have some kind of a cease-fire, then the people will forget the issue. Out of sight, out of mind.

    This goes only so long as Palestinians are indeed dying and the death toll rises and is noted in the media.

    The likely change is that simply to criticize Israeli policies won't be a political suicide in the US. But then again, criticizing US-NATO relationship hasn't been anywhere near a political suicide ever, hence this change isn't so huge as we think.
  • Israel killing civilians in Gaza and the West Bank
    Too many posters on this thread are looking through glasses - lenses - encrusted with junk.tim wood
    And then a give a repeat of the propaganda given through pro-Israeli glasses:

    The purposes of the Arabs/Palestinians/Hamas are simply based in their beliefs and ideologies. The Israelis/Jews, on the other hand, are and have been literally fighting for their lives. And while this has been the reality of generations/centuries/millennia, 7 Oct. 2023 simply made clear and explicit the bestiality of Arab intentions and practices.tim wood

    Wonderful. :cheer:

    Also It's a perfect example of the "shock - anger - revenge" mentality that took over also in 9/11. The obvious symptom is that people need to rally around the flag, defend all the actions of the government that has been attacked by the terrorists. Anything else would feel to these people like aiding the terrorists. Even to ask what will happen in the long run, how viable is the policy of revenge is outrageous. Or unpatriotic, or in this case, anti-semitic.
  • Israel killing civilians in Gaza and the West Bank
    It just shows how powerful the Israel lobby is in the US. No other ally has this kind of "special treatment", because the Israeli lobby is one of the most powerful lobbies in Washington.

    Actually many Israelis have pointed out that Joe Biden could have done what Bibi did with Obama: simply bypass Bibi and talk to the Israeli people / the Knesset directly. The thing is that the hugely traumatized and angry people wouldn't want to hear about the peace process, but they could have heard of not making the same mistakes that America did, which Biden was talking about. The simply fact is that Israel needs a policy what to do after the last battalion of Hamas is destroyed as a battalion. Hallucinations of "voluntary transportation" of people away from Gaza to a third country is not reality.
  • Israel killing civilians in Gaza and the West Bank
    Biden has been stooging for the Israeli government in the hopes of securing support from the Israel lobby, which could in turn make the difference in the upcoming election.Tzeentch
    How's that different from Trump?



    In fact, if Trump's great achievement, putting his son-in-law Jared to lead the Middle East, just how then is this different? In an interview he later did, Jared showed that he admired Netanyahu, thought that he was for the peace process, didn't remember when Israel snatched the Golan Heights from Syria and gave as the reason for accepting that annexation and moving the Embassy to Jerusalem was to gain "goodwill" from Israel.

    Why would there be change then when Trump comes around...again?

    The only reason would be if Trump's base would be upset about Israel. It's not. It's the leftist students in the university campuses and the Arab Americans who are upset about the treatment of Palestinians. Not Trump's base. If that base suddenly would "get woke" about Palestine, then of course Trump would be the worst nightmare for Israel. I'm sure that

    In other words, the Israel lobby's importance in the upcoming election is diminishing, and as such the US may take a harder stance on Israel, since Israel is estranging itself from the entire world with its genocidal behavior, and its taking the US with it, destroying what little credibility it had left.Tzeentch
    These issues take time to change. Years, actually.

    And one ISIS strike, similar as in Russia, can change views dramatically.
  • Arab Spring
    I suspect the biggest problem with American foreign policy is that there isn't one.Vera Mont
    Well put.

    American foreign policy is basically just the President and the White House reacting to events as they happen. That's it. Nothing else. The State Department hardly can do anything by it's own, and it isn't meant to do so. The Congress is fixated in it's domestic political struggles and seems like this administration is overwhelmed by the issues and has already thrown in the towel. Or the towel simply dropped (in Afghanistan) and the fighter just noticed it and said "Oh well, the fight ended".

    If asked what the foreign policy is, you will get this tree hugging list of everything positive about embracing American values... which bare no resemblance to actual events and actions that the US is doing. Not only are there no real objectives set fourth, there also isn't any understanding of the historical continuation of US foreign policy. Long term policies are basically guided by lobby groups, which guard their own fields.

    They don't seem committed to any long-term vision or plan; each administration just prods and pokes, pushes and pulls, tries to put out the fires left by the previous administration - sometimes by pouring gasoline on it, sometimes by throwing dollar bills on it, always wheedling and rattling their big rusty sword at the same time.Vera Mont
    This is what you get when people think the US President is some kind of Superman. Yet when there aren't any long term plans that the State Department could simply follow, everything becomes questions that the President has to answer. And since he is one man who has only so many hours a day that he can decide on foreign policy matters, the end result is this.
  • Israel killing civilians in Gaza and the West Bank
    With a second Trump presidency looking more likely, perhaps the United States may come to its senses.Tzeentch
    How?

    And why do you think so?
  • Israel killing civilians in Gaza and the West Bank
    Some of my most basic assumptions are that the first purpose of a state is the monopoly of coercion over a territory, and that people under a state rule are expected to support it at least to the extent the state keeps them safe.neomac
    You do understand that in case of the Palestinians, it is an independence movement. You may argue that Hamas has an "anti-Zionist ideology", but naturally an independence movement would be against any state, be it Israel or the United Kingdom. Challenging the Israeli territorial sovereignty is built-in Hamas’ declared anti-Zionist ideology. During the 1936-1939 Arab Revolt the Palestinians fought against the British, hence then you could argue that the ideology was "anti-British".

    However, that conclusion doesn’t add up with what you want to claim later (which I don't discount). Indeed, if Hamas succeeds in getting Israel “stuck in a war it cannot win”, something like an unsustainable or endless war for Israel, with ever growing material and reputational costs for Israel, then this would be a strategic failure for the Zionist project. And that still is what makes Hamas an existential threat to Israel as a Zionist project.neomac
    The "stuck in a war it cannot win" is basically because the Netanyahu government hasn't any policy what to do after the military operation. Here what is forgotten is that war is the continuation of policy. Just saying "destroy Hamas" isn't enough when you have no idea, no political objective what to do afterwards. It is as simplistic and stupid as Bush going to Afghanistan to destroy Al Qaeda and then declaring that he won't do anything else and isn't interested in nation building. Well, it didn't go so and it's naive to think that once the IDF declares that it has destroyed the last Hamas battalion, then it can go home and everything is back to normal.

    This isn't an anti-Israeli view. I think who makes this quite clear and obvious is former prime minister Ehud Barak. He states that the military side of might go as now, yet what is lacking is the political side of what to do. Many have stated similar thoughts, but Barak I think gives the most straight forward analysis (even if his English isn't the best). If you have time, you should listen to the former prime minister says here:



    I don’t know what the chances for Hamas to get and use bio/chemical weapons are, but I can still argue that there are persistent concerns about bio/chemical terrorism which I have no strong reason to dismiss since they come from both the West and the Middle Eastneomac
    At the present, it's obviously low. For them to get any weapons now is questionable. Hamas has been capable of acquiring it's arsenal only by a slow process of making itself the rockets and funneling through tunnels the weapons. And Hamas isn't ISIS, even if don't care to "sort them out". But you will surely find alarmist literature of terrorists getting their hands on "dirty bombs", bioweapons, WMD's etc. It's a small possibility, but not the likeliest outcome, just as Russia invading Finland. That is a possibility too, but not something immediate and likely.

    And btw many of your links look at states like Syria (prior Iraq) and their WMD projects. Understandably the objectives of these countries has to do a lot with having some kind of parity and deterrence towards Israeli WMDs.

    Your arguments don’t sound consistent to me: on one side you readily concede that “Deadly terrorist strikes are usually made to get a complacent actor to lash out in revenge and get itself stuck in a war it cannot win”, on the other side you seem to refuse to accept the consequences of such logic.neomac
    I'm not seeing anything inconsistent here. Terrorist want that their target governments lash out in anger and thus show how evil they are. That's their thinking.

    Or you don't understand how Al Qaeda or ISIS work? Or how fringe terrorist groups of twenty people think they can change things and move millions of people in their favor?

    Al Qaeda and ISIS aren't states, even if the latter insists being the Islamic State. They want publicity for their cause and anticipate the crackdown on themselves and hope that the crackdown will create itself support for their cause. They want an Islamic Caliphate to rise allover, hence their objectives are quite messianic (and really out there). It's quite consistent, so I'm not understanding what is so confusing to you.

    Hamas and the PLO have the objective of creating an independent Palestine. The PLO has used similar terror tactics, until it choose to attempt the peace process way. Hamas is still using terrorism.
  • Donald Trump (All General Trump Conversations Here)
    I think the main difference between a second Trump administration and the first one will be a quest for vengeance.

    As chaotic as it was, Trump's first presidency was mainly focused on "trying to be president" as defined by the establishment. From what I could tell, in Trump's mind he had "won" and earned the respect of his elite peers and could just "enjoy being president" while putting his own spin on a few things.

    Did we lock her up? Did we drain the swamp?

    We didn't even build the wall, as you note above.
    boethius
    Actually I agree with this. It's a very apt way to put how Trump will see his second time: quest for vengeance. He will likely be far more determined, and where that determination leads us, Heavens know.

    Like 2016, there's still plenty of powerful people that will have more to gain from a Trump presidency, whether from difference in policy or direct favouritism.

    Since the Superpack is a legal thing, the "smart money" can go to those to mostly attack Biden, and what Trump raises from his base can keep him afloat. I.e. that Trump has taken a half billion dollar hit does not mean that a half billion dollars needs to be raised before any money is spent on campaigning.
    boethius
    This is true also.

    And there are powerful interest groups that can put down hundreds of millions in loans (or investments), if and when it decides US foreign policy. Heck, the 2017 Shayrat cruise missile strike that Trump ordered, cost more than hundred million dollars.
  • Ukraine Crisis
    Development?

    After over two years of fighting, the Kremlin has finally come to the conclusion that it's actually fighting a war in Ukraine.

    The admission marks an escalation in official language used to describe the conflict, which the Kremlin initially referred to as a "special military operation".

    "Yes, it started as a special military operation, but as soon as this bunch was formed there, when the collective West became a participant on Ukraine's side, for us it already became a war," Peskov said.

    Naturally that this is the way the Cold War usually was fought in Vietnam, Afghanistan and other places hasn't yet naturally been officially recognized by the Kremlin.
  • Joe Biden (+General Biden/Harris Administration)
    Just how long Joe has been around:

    Here with the newly elected conservative leader Margaret Thatcher, before her being prime minister.
    Ekx-Hf6WAAUQ5sJ?format=jpg&name=4096x4096

    Here as a senator (already) with president Carter:
    67859993-11770147-PresidenT_Jimmy_Carter_and_then_Senator_Joseph_R_Biden_seen_in_1-a-151_1676860989736.jpg
  • Israel killing civilians in Gaza and the West Bank
    First, Hamas has a destabilisation power over Israel for the victims Hamas’ attacks provoke and for their indirect effects (psychological trauma for the population, internal migration and lack of investments due to perceived insecurity, political extremism/division).neomac
    I find this argument weak.

    What Hamas could do was to breach a wall that had lulled the Netanyahu goverment not to focus on Gaza and Hamas. And basically it seems that the Israelis were confident about the inability of the simpleton ragheads to do any kind of coordinated military strike against the wall. And then the wall was breached in a humiliation manner. Somehow it's quite similar to the 1973 Yom Kippur war, which came as a surprise to Israel and it's leaders. Well, Hamas had planned it for a long time and then saw now the time to do it. Basically a force less than one infantry brigade (without any assisting arms) managed to infiltrate few kilometers into Israel, kill about 200 Israeli soldiers and 800 civilians. Some of those were killed by friendly fire as the IDF helicopters and incoming forces had trouble finding the terrorists among the people. I think in 24 hours or so the attack was over and Israel had gained back the territory. And naturally Hamas had withdrawn as they knew they had no way against the IDF on open terrain, even for a moment. To do that they would had to have vast numbers of shoulder lauched SAMs and Javelin-type ATGMs. Or tanks, aircraft, etc. Which they don't have as they have only their home made variants of the RPG-7 and rockets.

    The "destabilisation power" that Hamas had was only because of the Israeli unpreparedness. This simply isn't at all an existential danger. A simple infantry/security team with enough ammunition could fight off the Hamas terrorists, as it in few places happened. A few companies ready in ambush behind the wall would have stopped Hamas bikers in their tracks. Yet Hamas achieved strategic surprise. Existential danger happens when large parts of your armed forces are destroyed. When the nuclear tipped Jericho missiles at Sdot Micha would be taken out in a surprise attack, that would be a real destabilization to the region.

    Second, given Hamas extremism and support from Muslim world, there is a risk they could manage to get and use biological/chemical weaponsneomac
    Ah, sorry to say this, but I've heard this so many times this lurid narrative during the war on terror. But let's think about this.

    Biological weapons, really? I wonder which people have more safety measure to deal with HAMASCOVID+, the Israelis and their efficient health sector or the Palestinians now starving to death?

    Then chemical weapons? So Hamas have their made at home rockets, which have a tiny warhead. Now filling that up (which would likely kill more Hamas fighters when making them), but what would be the purspose? To freak out the first responders coming to a scene of a rocket attack? Besides, the rockets can go wildly offcourse and aren't precision weapons in any way. And chemical weapons aren't simply very efficient. That's why they haven't been used much after WW1. The real way would pour some nerve gas in the water system of a big city, if you really want many casualties.

    Yet how does this help Hamas? That Bibi's administration has more credibility when saying that they are human animals that one cannot negotiate with? That the media would be even more fixated on the terrorist attacks and turn a blind eye to the response of more intensified ethnic cleansing? That the US and the West would be more firmly on the side of Isreal?

    Deadly terrorist strikes are usually made to get a complacent actor to lash out in revenge and get itself stuck in a war it cannot win. That was the whole idea with Al Qaeda specifically saying that Americans and American civilians are a worthy viable target. It got the tiny cabal noticed. Unfortunately for them the US didn't bomb Mecca and Medina and didn't even break up ties with Saudi-Arabia (from where the vast majority of the 9/11 terrorist came from). But Hamas has already gotten Israel to lash out with the October 7th attack.

    But if you want to believe that Hamas and the Palestinians supporting Hamas is this rabid death cult who hate democracy and want everybody to be dead, including all Palestinians, then there's not much to argue with you. Because obviously it just then repeating the mantra we heard so many time during the War on Terrorism.

    Third, Hamas is not a relatively isolated threat (as the Basque or IRA terrorism were). Indeed, it can easily combine with anti-Zionist threats coming from incumbent hostile forces (states and jihadist groups) around Israel, which also may have territorial demands over Israel as history has shown. Besides if Iran’s race for nuclear weapons succeeds, the support to Iran from Russia and China continues, while the support to Israel from the US declines and the normalisation with the Saudis doesn’t succeed fast enough, Israel survival as a state can be very much in danger. The world is changing.neomac
    OK, first of all, nobody else has territorial demands on Israel than the Palestinians naturally, who want their own independent state and Syria, which lost the Golan Heights to Israel in 1967. Lebanon, Jordan, Egypt or Saudi-Arabia or Iran don't have territorial demands on Israel.

    Secondly, do you understand that with nuclear weapons those hostile to Israel seek nuclear parity? If they have nuclear weapons, perhaps Israel won't so casually bomb them as it does Lebanon. Or do you go with argument that Iranians are these rabid mad mullahs who want to destroy Israel and don't care that millions of Iranians could die in the Israeli counter-attack? Is this the death cult argument again?

    Why is it so hard to understand that nations seek nuclear weapons for deterrence reasons, especially when a country hostile to them wanting regime change have them? We already see in Ukraine what happens when one country that has ambitions over another one's territory has nuclear weapons and the other one hasn't.
  • Donald Trump (All General Trump Conversations Here)
    What actual solutions do you have in mind?NOS4A2
    I think we've already had this discussion when it was current. Starting from the fact that if you make an impenetrable border, then you'll move people to come on dingies and whatever ships from the Gulf coast or the Pacific.

    You have to have a far more multifaceted approach than a wall. Starting from things like coordination among officials, creating a policy that does has general support, not one which will create such opposition that you start talking about Sanctuary Cities. But for that you have to have actual leadership skills, not just be a good demagogue inventing fancy slogans like "builiding a wall and Mexico will pay for it".

    Didn’t Finland start building a big fence just recently?NOS4A2
    To show argue my point, let's delve into this.

    You have to start with the fundamentals. First, people don't immigrate to Finland from Russia or via Russia from Third World countries into Finland. It isn't either a viable natural way to come to the EU. There is no chronic shortage of work force in Finland as there is in for example in California, where even with one million unemployed, a worker shortage persists.

    Second, the "migrant crisis" on the borders have been artificially created by Russia. Journalists have reported how officials have given assistance to the migrants and naturally the most obvious reason is that when the migrants have been interviewed, they have given a unison story of how the FSB has gone through construction sites in Moscow and told them that now there's an opportunity to go into the EU. Finland has seen this, the officials and politicians understand this, to talk about it isn't creating a political turmoil because the older pro-Kremlin politicians have been silenced or have changed their attitudes towards Russia.

    The response wasn't only to "build a fence". The response of Finland was to shut down the border to everybody. Nobody comes over the border or goes to Russia, not Finns or Russians either. If you were a Russian living in Finland, you have to go to Russia through another country. Also you can't even apply for refugee status at the border. They simply won't let you in. The border was totally quiet, I've seen it with my own eyes. (Building a fence is a minor issue to simply closing the border, don't you think?)

    Above all, the parties did this in agreement. The opposition wasn't against it. Hardly any opposition to the actions was noticeable in the media or in the political discourse. Also the EU understands the Finnish position. Finland hasn't been tagged out as a reckless country for closing their borders. The case of Russia using migrants and asylum seekers as a way of a hybrid attack was clear cut to everybody.

    So actually, Finland is a perfect example of democracies having the ability to close their borders quickly and not create a huge political turmoil in the process. (The border is scheduled to open 14th of the next month and they'll look if Russia will continue it's hybrid attacks.)

    And here's the real problem with Trump. Trump supporters all love that he irritates the other side with his rhetoric and actions. But in order to shut the border, you need a lot more leadership skills than a mere slogan and a stupid fixation on structures that even when working, is only a small detail in a far larger complex effort. Yes, you can argue that you have a border problem. But hardly anything is done to unite the people into looking at the problem. And then there comes the obvious question:

    Is Trump the kind of guy that will talk to the opposition, get them to tow the rope together? Is he capable of persuading people beyond his base?

    No.

    The great demagogue has little if any leadership skills. And he won't compromise because it might look bad for his base. His four years prove that as his administration was far more chaotic than anything we had seen and his future administration will be so. Now he will have the Republican A-team right from the start, but Trump being Trump and as he has already been POTUS, I assume he will start to gather sycophants and yes-men around him. He will not, for example, go with the idea as previously to ask the military who are the best generals.
  • Donald Trump (All General Trump Conversations Here)
    Biden ended the Trump’s national emergency and the border wall construction on his first day in office. Now he’s dealing with a crisis at the border. Now the crisis is the biggest problem facing America, according to public opinion, costing the tax-payer more than it would have cost to build the wall.NOS4A2
    Trump couldn't even get the wall built. That's how bad he is. And building just a wall which can be circumvented isn't an answer.

    But who the fuck cares about actual solutions. "Build a wall and make Mexico pay for it!" is such a great slogan. Why have any discussion on immigration policy when you have such awesome policies like that?
  • Donald Trump (All General Trump Conversations Here)
    Too late? :chin:
    For what too late? You have to speak Spanish now? (Oh, I forgot, you didn't live in the US or did you?)

    And I think having a border fence isn't similar to build a big, beautiful, wall. Which Trump was incapable of doing in 4 years.

    Besides, the last glimpse on how wonderful, secure and efficient these billion dollar high-tech walls are was seen last year on October 7th.

    GettyImages-634213698.jpg?h=a5ae579a&itok=_pDoNsWX
  • Donald Trump (All General Trump Conversations Here)
    A new hoax has arisen. This time our credulity implores us to believe Trump threatened the country with a bloodbath should he lose the election. Out of context a clever propagandist could spin it that upon Trump's loss his supporters will break out the ARs and start murdering political opponents. But in context it was blatantly clear that the bloodbath Trump was speaking about was a figurative one, an economic one.NOS4A2
    The real hoax is that we should believe what Trump says, in the first place.

    Just like all the talk about building a wall. :snicker:

    Or perhaps the US-Mexican border is only figuratively 458 miles long, not the over 1900 miles long.

    And of course, as this is Trump, the 458 miles wasn't even a new wall:

    The vast majority of the 458 miles were constructed in places where some kind of barrier already existed, but most of the preexisting structures were far less imposing than the new wall and included fencing and rudimentary technical barriers. The total figure also includes what the agency calls “secondary border wall” or sections of wall built behind preexisting barriers that ultimately remained in place.

    (The big, beautiful wall, that Trump built.)
    DAMAGED-BORDER-WALL.png

  • Donald Trump (All General Trump Conversations Here)
    Either 7 more months of Trump or 4 years and 7 months of Trump. But either way, he’ll be history soon enough.Mikie
    Imagine this thread ending and passing into obscurity.

    And if your young, imagine a time when talking to a new generation of Americans decades from now, when they sincerely ask you: "Trump? Who was Trump?"
  • Israel killing civilians in Gaza and the West Bank
    Israel has more advanced hardware and technology at hand.Punshhh
    Israeli economy is quite export oriented:

    In Israel, exports account for around 40 percent of GDP. Israel main exports are: cut and uncut diamonds, pearls and other precious metals and stones (33 percent of total exports); electrical machinery and equipment, mechanical machinery and appliances, sound and TV recorders and reproducers and computer equipment (22 percent) and chemical products (11 percent). Main export partners are: United States (28 percent of total exports) and Hong Kong (8 percent). Others include: Belgium, United Kingdom, India and China.

    1151px-Israel_Export_Treemap.jpg?20120405202628

    So go for example against the diamond trade, which consists a huge part of exports. Something that people wouldn't be offended so much (as they don't buy diamonds themselves often, typically.) Something that isn't seen as harmful (like going after the medical industry). And something that wouldn't hit Silicon Valley as the IT sector in Israel. Even if a large part of the diamond trade is for industrial use, consumer diamonds are crucial. So if someone goes against "Israeli Genocide-diamonds", or something similar, then that might work.

    We have to understand the Palestinians themselves don't represent an existential threat to Israel as it has an overwhelming military compared to them. In fact, that ONLY non-state actors have been attacking Israel shows the dominance of the Israeli armed forces. So unlike the narrative cherished by Israel, it's not a tiny country surrounded by mighty Arab armies. Nobody else would dare to attack Israel. And for Bibi, the objective is to make the war a perpetual low intensity conflict, that won't effect the lives of ordinary Israelis. Hence all the talk about mowing the lawn. Hence Israel is really the country where sanctions would have an effect.

    The simple fact is that nobody wants to make a negotiated peace. They'll make a negotiated peace only if war or the present course of action will be totally catastrophic. And Netanyahu has dedicated all his life to fight against the peace process.
  • Israel killing civilians in Gaza and the West Bank
    I think that Bibi will in the end achieve to get Israel into similar international position what Apartheid South Africa was.
  • Israel killing civilians in Gaza and the West Bank
    Most of those trucks are going to southern Gaza. In the north mass starvation is already well under way.Punshhh

    And we naturally don't have coverage of the events there. According to the Committee to Protect Journalists (CPJ), 95 journalists have now been killed in Gaza. To put that to context, about 17 or so have been killed in Ukraine in two years, 28 in all according to CPJ between 1992-2024.
  • Israel killing civilians in Gaza and the West Bank
    And Israel has let in plenty of aid. Netanyahu claims a 1:1 civilian to terrorist death ratio.BitconnectCarlos
    Plenty? Prior to the war it was about 500 trucks that brought supplies daily into Gaza, which made the case manageable. It's not 500 trucks daily.

    (March 7th,2024) 21 Palestinians in Gaza, including at least 17 children, have died of malnutrition and dehydration, according to the Palestinian Ministry of Health. The true death toll due to starvation is feared to be much higher as many Palestinians, particularly in northern Gaza, face famine and are almost entirely cut off from the limited humanitarian aid entering Gaza through the southern Rafah crossing.

    I think you are the perfect example of how many see this. It's a war where after the shock of Oct 7th the extremist right wing administration saw their opportunity to achieve their delusional goals of ethnic cleansing, and people will go with their delusional agenda and defend their actions... because they want to support Israel after a traumatic terrorist attack. Bibi doesn't have a political solution, he doesn't care. It's just about erasing Gaza and the people off the map in a fashion that would go "unnoticed".

    To show how deliberate this is, a report from Oxfam.

    (Oxfam, March 17th) Israeli authorities have rejected a warehouse full of international aid including oxygen, incubators and Oxfam water and sanitation gear all of which is now stockpiled at Al Arish just 40 km away from the border of 2.3 million desperate Palestinians in Gaza.

    The aid originates from many humanitarian organisations around the world and has been rejected over weeks and months as a result of an unpredictable and chaotic regime of approval, scanning and inspection, ultimately controlled by Israeli authorities. The reasons for rejection are not clear, says Oxfam.

    In a new report today, Oxfam said this rejected aid was just one example of an overall humanitarian response that Israel has made so dangerous and dysfunctional as to be impossible for aid agencies to work at the speed and scale necessary to save lives, despite best efforts.

    Oxfam says that Israel’s government ultimately bears accountability for the breakdown of the international response to the crisis in Gaza. It is failing in its legal responsibilities to the people whose land it occupies and breaking one of the key provisions demanded by the International Court of Justice (ICJ) – to boost humanitarian aid in light of the risk of genocide in Gaza.

    Oxfam believes that people living in Gaza will suffer mass death from disease and starvation far beyond the current 31,000 Palestinian war casualties unless Israel takes immediate steps to end its violations.

    “The ICJ order should have shocked Israeli leaders to change course, but since then conditions in Gaza have actually worsened,” said Oxfam Middle East and North Africa Director, Sally Abi Khalil. “The fact that other governments have not challenged Israel hard enough, but instead turned to less effective methods like airdrops and maritime corridors is a huge red flag, signalling that Israel continues to deny the full potential of better ways to deliver more aid”.

    “Israeli authorities are not only failing to facilitate the international aid effort but are actively hindering it. We believe that Israel is failing to take all measures within its power to prevent genocide,” Abi Khalil said.

    Oxfam’s report “Inflicting Unprecedented Suffering and Destruction” identifies seven crucial ways that Israel is actively preventing the delivery of international aid into Gaza and punishing all Palestinians living in Gaza by deliberately depriving them of life and safety.

    The report says that Israeli authorities:
    - Only allow aid in via two crossings into Gaza – at Rafah and KarmAbu Salem/Kerem Shalom – despite having total control to open more, thereby creating avoidable choke points for aid and trade.

    - Are leading a dysfunctional and undersized inspection system that keeps aid snarled up, subjected to onerous, repetitive and unpredictable bureaucratic procedures that are contributing to trucks being stranded in giant queues for 20 days on average.

    - Are routinely and arbitrarily rejecting items of aid as having “dual (military) use”, banning vital fuel and generators entirely along with other items vital for a meaningful humanitarian response such as protective gear and communications kit. Much rejected aid must go through a complex “pre-approval” system or end up being held in limbo at the Al Arish warehouse in Egypt.

    - Have cracked down on humanitarian missions, largely sealing off northern Gaza, and restricting international humanitarian workers’ access not only into Gaza, but Israel and the West Bank including East Jerusalem too.

    Israel has allowed 15,413 trucks into Gaza during the past 157 days of war. Oxfam says the population of Gaza needed five times more than that just to meet their minimum needs. In February, Israel allowed 2,874 trucks in – a 44% reduction from the month before.

    Let's put for the denialists these numbers into perspective. Prior to the war there was 500 trucks entering Gaza with food and supplies which was already quite perilous. That would be in 157 days 78 500 trucks into Gaza. That's one fifth.

    But of course this means nothing, Oxfam is a front to Hamas or whatever, so perhaps here is a guy that @BitconnectCarlos and others might believe is not taking it's talking points from Hamas or is an anti-semite. Hopefully they'll listen to what the US secretary of state says, before trolling that there's "plenty of aid getting in".

  • Why populism leads to authoritarianism
    I see Bernie as a kind of extension of occupy, which was more clearly populist and I at least think it's worth recognising a spectrum of populism with what I call power populism and what you see as populism proper the most virulent form of the phenomenon.Baden
    I think Bernie has been in Congress since the 1990's and is so old that he participated as a young man in the civil rights movement.

    Yet Occupy Wall Street was surely populist. The Occupy Movement hardly was looking for a leader, which basically made it disappear, so it really doesn't fit perfectly in the mold of a populist movement. Of course the Tea Party (that started originally from Ron Paul's campaign) was also populist. As this following venn diagram from years ago shows:

    main-qimg-ddafc257068a2daf889967c87aedd7f5.webp

    Yet the division between the left and the right is so successful that Americans didn't notice that both were against the obvious corruption that happened during the financial crisis. And Ron Paul, just like Bernie (or people like wasn't a populist. Both are quite OK trying to use the democratic system and understand they aren't the majority view.

    If some Houdini of a politician can join both leftist populist and right-wing populism, that's it. Can break up firm political institutions very, very quickly.

    The easy part is of course to notice the obvious things that are wrong, the more difficult what to do about. Yet populism has the answer that we've know seen again and again: Vote for us, and we'll fix it! Yep, that's enough that you have to say. It's enough because explaining lengthily how you will do something isn't the populist way. It's short, snappy sentences that people can easily remember and chant. Being undiplomatic and rude to others to show you aren't an appeaser, but tough.
  • Why populism leads to authoritarianism
    Cause populism gets behind an ostensibly moral cause, could be worker's rights, climate change, corporate reform, free speech, etc. Or it could be a combination of these. But essentially a cause populist should be driven by and be able to articulate an ideological goal that determines a coherent set of responsibilities that their leader is bound to carry out while in office (and be judged by his or her ability to do so). The social framework is situated in the idea of the building of a better society by removing special interests in the establishment that have heretofore prevented this from happening.

    I think Bernie Sanders is a good example of a cause populist.
    Baden
    (Is Bernie a populist? He might be popular, but I'm not so sure he is a populist. But let's keep this more to the lines of political philosophy.)

    Here I think it's important to make the separation with ordinary "non-populist" political movements and a populist movement. Let's say your objective is workers rights or tackling climate change. Here the issue is that you have a political agenda that you want to implement and basically anybody that agrees with your demands is an ally in this cause, even if in other policies they might not be. This is how democracy should work. Those who are against your climate change initiatives or even the corporations that oppose your work reforms aren't a class of people...because they hold these views. People understand that there's lobby groups that are against your ideas and promote different views. To say these groups exist isn't in my view cause populism: in a democracy you surely will find people that have different opposing ideas to yours. Above all, your focus is your agenda, not being against those that oppose certain people. Hopefully you see the difference here with a specific corporate lobby group and the people against the elite juxtaposition.

    You really have to be Marxist and assume the juxtaposition of the proletariat against the capitalists and this to be part of the struggle against capitalism to have similar ideas as the populist. The juxtaposition between the proletariat and the capitalists is quite similar to present day populism, even if naturally Marxism has lot more than this populist idea. You can also see the obvious populism in German Nazism.

    I see power populism on the other hand as resting on the promise of power without responsibility, of the resetting of power dynamics as an end in itself with the audience being those who believe that power has been wielded irresponsibly and unjustly against them. The social framework of the power populist is society not as a cooperative among interested parties but as an arena where one party must dominate (and whoever currently dominates is the elite). But the wish of the power populist is not really to rid society of elites, but to become their replacement (an elite by any other name). And the means are virtually irrelevant. Nor does the leader have any particular responsibilities except to wield power against those who his followers see as previously wielding it against them.Baden
    In my view your definition of Power populism is what populism really is. Cause populism is more like a classic political movement, which naturally has those against it that are happy with current situation and the present status quo.

    As the populist is against the existing power elite, the game isn't as in normal politics. If your are pushing an agenda (workers rights, climate change etc.), you would be OK with the elite if the elite accepts your agenda and goes along with it. But as the populist starts from the idea that the people are being downtrodden by the existing elite, then that elite has to go. There's no other answer. Drop dead isn't a constructive proposal to reach some consensus. It's not about individual policies, it's about that evil group of people themselves. And replacing them the populist movement simply have to guard against the old elite from taking power again. And if you think the democratic system doesn't work, the legislature, the judiciary system and the executive branch are all corrupt, then the easy solution is authoritarianism. You see simply democracy as the reason why everything is so bad.

    So it's no wonder that populists just love conspiracy theories. The bigger, the nastier, the better.