Europe, the EU, after the fall of the Iron curtain. — ChatteringMonkey

Well, I like to call it the confederacy that desperately wants to be an union. Member states aren't anything like the states in the United States or somewhere else. These are sovereign nations states with distinctive unique cultures, languages and history. They naturally have different objectives and agendas as they are situated politically and geographically in different situations. If the English could lure the Welsh and the Scots to all unify under being "British", there is no program of making a German, an Italian, a Greek and a Swede to be similarly "European" as being British.

The only way is... actually this way. Unlike Trump says that it was him who forced the Europeans to "pay up", it was Putin's attack on Ukraine that woke us up. And then the next thing was Trump hopping in bed with Putin.

So a Trump-Putin pact that is against Europe. Yeah, that's gets us to do something together.

Yes, Trump is hell-bent on destroying the US government, department by department, agency by agency. He doesn't give a flying fig about international relations or long-term stability: he wants revenge on his opponents, real and imagined, harm to everyone who has ever been 'disrespectful' to him and the last big money-grab before closing time. — Vera Mont

It is absolutely crazy, but it's understandable when people are so full of hubris that they think that their government is just a service that costs too much and could better done without. And these anarco-libertarians who seem to think they are the heroes in an Ayn Rand novel and their government is their enemy, go smashing everything is just creative destruction and the means to get cuts implemented because the actual legislative course wouldn't work... because liberal democracy and liberal democracies don't work.

Ignorance and hubris becomes a really potent intoxicating shot in foreign policy, where these idiots can really assume that similar smashing will get results, because the pinko-liberals in "gay Europe" won't do anything and hence the war in Ukraine can be stopped by Ukraine admitting to the terms from Kremlin, because Ukraine doesn't mean much to them. And everything is just a deal, a transaction. After all, JD Vance never has been to Ukraine and thinks Russia isn't a threat to Europe, but culture war issues are. So, that tells something about the ignorance and blindness to Europe, just his remarks about possible peacekeepers.

End result is that the US won't have allies, or at least allies that truly trust it. The US won't be looked as bringing stability and definitely not as being the leader of the West. Canadians have now understood this. They have understood that this isn't at all about American jobs and fair trade... which usually was usually the reason for trade wars. Trump really wants the US to have the total Northern hemisphere of the Continent (excluding Mexico) and Greenland on the side. The US is the bully and while Trump is in power, you have to be equally straightforward as diplomacy would be a sign of weakness.

Just listen to this Canadian politician. This is where the relationship has gone to thanks to Trump:


That is really what one can call a breakup in close ties between two nations. Likely Canadians start to think of Americans like the Mexicans do, as the "Gringos". Yes, times can change and Trump does go away at some time, but this is something that people won't forget, even if things would go back to normal. The trust is gone. And the MAGA-people can come back, even if the next administration would try to heal the relationship.

Hence this is the end of the American Superpower. From now on, the US is just a great power among others and bully and a threat to the neighborhood.

Who? :yikes: The US??? :snicker:

The sole Superpower wasn't a "rising power" after WW2. It was the other Superpower and then after Soviet collapse it was the only Superpower.

And now the US is by it's own action deliberately destroying it's Superpower status. Something that never has happened in history, actually. Russia, China and Iran can truly laugh at this as Trump is doing the utmost destroy the position that the US has.

Or who are you meaning?

Thucydides Trap has been used to talk about China.

Not a country like Russia, that has the economy a bit smaller than either Italy or Canada and has blown through it's Soviet era weaponry and only can sustain the war with a war economy.

It's just bullying is all it is. He has the idea that playing nice concedes too much. That's how all ruthless people rule. I just think it will be more effective than you do. — Hanover

How is that effective to you? Perhaps for your enemies like Russia and China, it's great. Putin can breathe now more easily.

I think Trump is simply shattering the Superpower status of the United States. And then he starts the most stupid trade war, which will hurt you. Perhaps Americans are indifferent to that or think it's a great thing. I don't.

Why so indifferent about it?

You just described how you proved my point.

I guess thanks for that. — boethius

Oh you don't have to thank me. I will agree with you when you say something that is true or correct.

It's actually quite important to understand just how Russia fights these wars. Yet perhaps the biggest thing is that we assume that Russia is just a large European state like, well, Germany or Poland.

It's not.

It is really an Empire. It has countries and regions that aren't Russian or European and these minorities aren't migrants (as in the UK or Germany), but basically people that are in a rather same situation as we where as a Grand Dutchy of Russia. Perhaps it would be similar to think of France being connected to Algeria without there being any Mediterranean. After all, France didn't think of Algeria as a colony, but as a part of France with many French living in the country (the Pied-Noirs). Well, Algeria isn't Christian and isn't European and the cultural assimilation is different. Chechnya wasn't either, even if the country was on the European side of the Caucasus mountains. And Central Asia, as name implies, is really different also.

I think this, and it's geography that doesn't give it refuge, makes Russia so fearful especially about democracy and liberalism at it to feel more safer, if it can push it's borders further. And here it sees as the best defense attack. And this creates the self fulfilling prophecy that it's weaker neighbors fear it ...with genuine reason.

Well, now fortunately Europe seems to be waking up. Of course that means that the threat of large scale war has become closer, yet I do think that Europe will find enough deterrence for the peace to prevail here or even in the Baltics.

A Finnish-Russian war, that I predict may indeed happen, would not be Russia attacking Finland but some messy situation and a series of strange events and false flags / alleged false flags (that could be caused by literally anyone, such as cutting undersea infrastructure). — boethius

You are just describing how Russia attacks other countries. False flags are just the Russian traditional method. Or the attackers described as being "volunteers" or "local freedom fighters" and in the end, the Russian army being a "peace-keeping force".

And this isn't really my prediction but only extrapolating a bit on the analysis of Professor Glenn Diesen, who quite confidently asserts Finns are being prepared to fight an inevitable war with Russia. — boethius

Lol. Glenn Diesen, of course. The person who is frequently on Russia television.

But anyway: Si vis pacem, parabellum. The real way you can have peace.

The logical upgrade available is some sort of war between Finland and Russia as Finland is in NATO. — boethius

No, the logical upgrade is the Europe get's it shit together and does take it's security seriously and creates that deterrence, which is needed. All thanks to perhaps agent Krasnov?

And help Ukraine.

For, it is assumed that any sort of fighting whatsoever between Russia and any element of NATO would immediately result in a full blown war, but this is just a thing "people say" and assert as if it's a law of nature when obviously it is not. — boethius

I agree with this, actually.

The fact is that actually two nuclear weapons armed countries can fight each other quite openly without it ending up in a nuclear exchange. This goes to the stupid and actually dangerous idea that we cannot talk about nuclear escalation being contained in a military exchange. The accepted lithurgy is that a war between two nuclear powers would lead to humans wiping themselves off the Earth, which isn't even possible even if all nukes would be used and they all would work.

The really dangerous thing is the idea of "escalation to de-escalation", because it does have a kernel of truth in it. If a small 10KT tactical nuke would be used in the middle of nowhere against a military target, the media frenzy and the collective panic would lead people desperately calling for immediate cease-fire. And that's the idea behind escalation to de-escalate.

In fact, if Russia would want really to get Ukraine to peace talks, it could just do a nuclear test under ground in Novaja Zemlya. NATO, even before Trump, wouldn't have attacked anything if Russia would have made a test in it's own backyard. But in the case, the nuclear rattling would be far more credible than just talking about nukes as now the Russians have done. But since Trump is giving everything to Putin already, no need for anything like that.

There is a whole spectrum of both fighting and tensions between Russia and elements of NATO that can be explored without that leading to a full war, much less a war in which Russia seeks to conquer large parts, or even any part, of the EU. — boethius

And we've seen that spectrum in Moldavia and Georgia ....and Ukraine, prior to the conventional attack.

Yet the fact is that many NATO countries might openly want to believe this crap, because it would be better for them. So perhaps the Nazis in the Baltic States are really oppressing their Russian minorities and having Russian "peace-keepers" there is a great idea. It's just an internal problem like what we saw in Spain in Katalonia etc. Nothing to do with NATO and article 5.

Openly siding with the Kremlin lies is useful for many.

What's going to happen is that a peace treaty will be signed and Trump will take credit for it. — Hanover

Enabling Putin to fight his war against Ukraine by putting Ukraine in a tougher spot does actually quite the opposite. There is no reason for Putin to end this war now. Putin can see that he can have everything. Putin is on the road to get his objectives: Having Novorossiya, having a puppet Ukraine (or at least an Ukraine that has Finlandization), having the Atlantic alliance broken and have the US pushed down to be just a Great Power, not a Superpower anymore. All totally possible.

But live in your bubble where Trump is playing his 4D-chess, and enjoy the trade war he has started.

No one (who matters; aka. decides what the propaganda is rather than their job being to believe it) actually believes that Russia will actually attack the EU. Ukraine was a particular case in terms of culture, strategic military implications, and resources.

Another war maybe fought in Finland, but that will just be to sacrifice Finns to keep up the pretence of this amazing confrontation (and so sell more arms). — boethius

So in the same answer you don't believe Russia attacking the EU yet then you believe maybe Russia would attack the EU.

These delirious opinions should be given respect they deserve: Not worth commenting further.

Wtf, no Iceland? At least I heard Icelandic leader being quite on the side of Ukraine. Even if they don't have an army and are a tiny nation.

Leaders matter to the extent they aggregate, represent, and guide collective interests coming from ordinary people, powerful economic and media lobbies, geopolitical experts, political entourage and advisors. — neomac

I would agree to this when it comes to Putin, Netanyahu, Bush etc. But Trump really is an exception here. Let me put it this way:

Was there a drive in the US for the territorial expansion of the US as Trump has put it? If you haven't noticed, this has truly angered the Canadians to feel that this isn't just a trade issue at stake here. Really, before Trump I didn't notice this thinking that the Northern Hemisphere ought to be belonging and annexed by the US anywhere inside the US. If someone (correctly in some events) called the US policy neo-imperialist, this is actually quite old-school imperialism. The fact is, nobody, no political movement was asking for territorial expansion that Trump has declared his objective. This really is Trump's own designs that he's taken on.



This makes Trump totally different. Trump has to be understood as a person, who thinks he has these great ideas. He's not acting as a representative of a political movement, he's more acting like a king. Kings obviously look after their nation, but can come up with ideas themselves what would be best for the country. The total disregard of the separation of powers tell that this isn't a man who see's that he has a certain limited role as the elected leader of the executive branch, who then should share power with the legislative and the judicial branch. He clearly want's to dominate the two other branches. OK, so he's an autocrat, at least a wanna-be. But there's more to this.

I think professor Timothy Snyder explains best the view I have about Trump. Snyder correctly explains what the Trump plan for Ukraine is: "It's not a peace plan yet, but a warmongering process" as "literally everything that Washington has done under Trump, has made it easier for Russia to carry out the war". Snyder observes that Russia itself isn't talking about a peace process and it hasn't given away on any of it's objectives, It's just that the US stance has come aligned with it. Making concessions to Russia just enables them far more. And Snyder also notes how Trump views the issue at a personal level, Trump and Putin personally. Similarly Snyder noticed in the scolding of Zelenskyi that Trump told that "he and Putin have gone through tough times together".

Worth watching this interview:


I agree that with Snyder's observation that this has made the US far weaker and improved the position of both China and Russia.

Don't have Disney+

In fact, if one has to say the absolutely best movie about urban insurgency is The Battle of Algiers (1966). Really a truly amazing war movie about urban insurgency and terrorism. You would be also interested to compare the French action in Algiers and Algeria to the British actions in Northern Ireland. You see, the French did lose Algeria, the British didn't lose North Ireland. And notice the similarities and the differences in the counter-insurgency methods.

Here's the trailer of this great war movie:

I think a real genuine problem is that European leaders have a hard time to see how erratic Trump is and how the Trump administration will follow every erratic decision he will make.

They still assume to be talking to an administration, that is logical. That Trump might say this or that, but later clearer heads will prevail.

Listening to the responses of Canadian politicians, I think they are really finally awaking what kind of president Trump is. This man is ignorant and stupid, he genuinely wants Canada to be the 51st state of the US. He is incapable of thinking why this wouldn't be such a great idea. Canadians have also noticed that behind the trade wars there actually isn't much reasoning. When Canadians do understand this, then they respond to Trump as one should respond to someone like Trump. The UK doesn't notice, that they too have a "special relationship" with a Commonwealth partner called Canada. And the "special partnership" is nearly non-existent. The only country that has a "special partnership" with the US is Israel. Europeans still assume some kind of sanity behind the madness or some continuation in the policy of the US.

For example, Trump has repeated his desire for Greenland. And this is a message that the Danes simply don't get as they think and believe that the US is an ally and anything else simply would be impossible:

Just look at the response of ordinary Danes (or the few Greenlanders) when asked about it. They are simply puzzled:https://www.youtube.com/shorts/3qjBWIf9gkc

And compare this when the Foreign Minister Lars Rasmunssen is asked about the question about Greenland (at the 6:00 mark in the following video). He is simply bewildered and gives a non-answer:



So perhaps just wait and hope that Trump will have to focus somewhere else. If Ukrainians would think similarly, it would be very dangerous.

Because the warning signs that Trump genuinely doesn't give a rat's ass about Ukraine and will want peace quickly even if it's Ukraine surrendering to Russia doesn't sink in. Ukrainians might understand this, but Europeans simply cannot fathom this kind of behavior, hence they are shocked when Trump continues with his outrageous ideas.

What should be understood, that Europe and Ukraine do have the cards here. If the US walks away, it then walks away. Then they should rapidly send weapons and ammo as it would be 2022. It is possible, the defeatism spread by Kremlin is propaganda.

:up:

What's up with that? — jorndoe

The Trump administration is ending everything that would put him in the questionable light in any way...

As you know, Jan 6th was a peaceful protest and Trump won the 2020 elections. :smile:

Do you even read what I write?

So I'll repeat:

But as the Mueller report didn't find direct cooperation, then the whimsical idea that you promote has surfaced. Just like the Jan 6th attack on Congress didn't lead to an autocoup by the former President, it had to be a peaceful demonstration and Trump won those elections. Similar dubious logic. (Which already was backed then discussed on this forum)

Hence:

The Committee report found that the Russian government had engaged in an "extensive campaign" to sabotage the election in favor of Donald Trump, which included assistance from some of Trump's own advisers.

You just keep wearing that MAGA-hat with your fellow Canadians. Just keep telling them how great it would be for them to become the 51st State of the United States under Trump.

Well, then let's refer to the Senate Intelligence Committee report on Russian interference in the 2016 United States presidential election:

The Republican-led Senate Intelligence Committee submitted the first part of its five-volume report in July 2019 in which it concluded that the January 2017 Intelligence Community assessment alleging Russian interference was "coherent and well-constructed". The first volume also concluded that the assessment was "proper", learning from analysts that there was "no politically motivated pressure to reach specific conclusions". The final and fifth volume, which was the result of three years of investigations, was released on August 18, 2020, ending one of the United States "highest-profile congressional inquiries." The Committee report found that the Russian government had engaged in an "extensive campaign" to sabotage the election in favor of Donald Trump, which included assistance from some of Trump's own advisers.

But oh! In your echo chamber they have "unproven" this. Oh yes...

Yes, Trump is going again for a "reset". Like uh, George W Bush, Obama...
So forget the war and "the dictator of Ukraine" and NATO, Russia has so much to offer Trump!

So will Lavrov get the famous reset button for Trump to push with Trump?

And is there any gold left after they have been there? :joke:

No seriously, have you noticed that gold has been quite persistent...




Wrong again. This is similar lie like the peaceful protest of Jan 6th.

The Special Counsel investigation uncovered extensive criminal activity

- The investigation produced 37 indictments; seven guilty pleas or convictions; and compelling evidence that the president obstructed justice on multiple occasions. Mueller also uncovered and referred 14 criminal matters to other components of the Department of Justice.
- Trump associates repeatedly lied to investigators about their contacts with Russians, and President Trump refused to answer questions about his efforts to impede federal proceedings and influence the testimony of witnesses.
- A statement signed by over 1,000 former federal prosecutors concluded that if any other American engaged in the same efforts to impede federal proceedings the way Trump did, they would likely be indicted for multiple charges of obstruction of justice.

Russia engaged in extensive attacks on the U.S. election system in 2016

Russian interference in the 2016 election was “sweeping and systemic.”
Major attack avenues included a social media “information warfare” campaign that “favored” candidate Trump and the hacking of Clinton campaign-related databases and release of stolen materials through Russian-created entities and Wikileaks.
Russia also targeted databases in many states related to administering elections gaining access to information for millions of registered voters.

See here

But as the Mueller report didn't find direct cooperation, then the whimsical idea that you promote has surfaced. Just like the Jan 6th attack on Congress didn't lead to an autocoup by the former President, it had to be a peaceful demonstration and Trump won those elections. Similar dubious logic. (Which already was backed then discussed on this forum)

And now we see the effect of this.

And here's Trump's greatest gift to Americans: the Trump recession! Came in quite quickly.

(Forbes, March 4th 2025) A slew of economic data is signaling that a recession is around the corner. The impending economic contraction, and possibly a recession, is primarily being caused by President Donald Trump’s tariffs imposed on Canada, China, and Mexico and the wave of retaliation which has now followed. Moreover, the chaotic layoff of federal workers will likely lead to a rise in unemployment and tightening of spending by those losing their jobs. Additionally, deportations of undocumented immigrants, as well as the fear thereof, is causing significant uncertainty in several important economic sectors such as construction, farming, hospitality, poultry, and small businesses.

On Monday, a closely watched model of gross domestic product level, the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta’s GDPNow, estimated significant decline of 2.8% in annualized growth for this quarter. This is a sharp contrast from a 2.3% increase last week. Unlike the quarterly GDP figure, which is a lagging indicator, GDPNow is the Federal Reserve’s running estimate of real GDP growth based on available economic data for the current measured quarter.

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2025 is -2.8 percent on March 3, down from -1.5 percent on February 28.

This kind of information the Trump administration doesn't want to be leaked out. Unfortunately for Trump, the local Federal Reserve Banks are not part of the government. There also is a real possibility of a stock market crash, if they aren't ready to support the market. Gold, anyone? Especially if there is a crash, also gold prices might go down for a while.

Exactly.

I would prefer Europe to get its act together without getting lured into a cataclysmic war with Russia, thank you very much. — Tzeentch

You need a strong military and the will to fight the aggressor to have real deterrence. Appeasement will bring that cataclysmic war with Russia. Only strong deterrence does literally what it means: deters Russia. Weakness and appeasement will only raise the interest of Putin.

Russia invaded Ukraine because it saw the country as weak. All the intelligence people (that Putin later fired) gave that impression that it would be as easy as annexing Crimea. That Ukrainian military wouldn't put up a fight, that a Russian proxy leader could be installed quickly to rest of Ukraine as Novorossiya would be carved up was the idea. It would be as successful as the dash for Crimea. Or like Operation Danube, from history.

There will be peace in Ukraine, and Europe won't be going to war with Russia, no matter how hard some disgruntled intellectuals might find it to swallow their words. — Tzeentch

Europe doesn't have to go to war with Russia. Europe can assist Ukraine. If they only would believe in themselves. Europe holds the cards here as Ukraine does. Not Trump. But Putin can simply continue the war too. He isn't been pressured at all.

If you're eager for more blood, go volunteer for the Ukrainian Foreign Legion while you still can. — Tzeentch

I know some of them. They are highly respected in our military and with our reserves as they bring valuable insight on the actual fighting capabilities of the Russian forces.

They know their political lives will be cut short if they have to make a 180 on Ukraine. — Tzeentch

Well, working for Putin will cause that, because people at least in the Nordics, Baltics and Eastern Europe do see Putin as a threat. It's called democracy, you know.

There is, of course, no guarantee that anyone will take my sage advice. Perhaps the opposition will fold up, dig a hole, and bury itself in it. Perhaps Donald Trump will bring about full-fledged fascism. Bad things can and do happen to good people. — BC

I bet 1 euro that it won't happen like that. The opposition to Elon Musk and Trump will rise. Perhaps Trump will then want to use the insurrection act, which will just draw more opposition like flowers and honey attracts bees. It will just give more vitalism to the cause. This is something that won't be limited to just angry town hall meetings.

The Trump recession is already here, it has started. His most stupid trade war will just reinforce the downturn. Trade wars before had some reasoning behind them, with Trump they don't. And Canada being said to be the 51st state isn't a laughing matter here, just like taking Greenland isn't either. It just shows the hubris of these ignorant Trump followers.

As I've said even before this all started, Elon Musk will be the most hated person in the US and around the World. And after him, it's going to be Trump. Yet this is absolutely devastating for Tesla. Tesla as a company is already getting the response for Elon's crazy actions. After all, who the fuck will buy a Tesla now as it's a political statement that you are for Elon?





And it's going to be worse. A lot worse.

The Trump cult will fight for it's revolution and live in it's alternate reality, where the economic and political damage that Trump (and Musk) have caused will likely be portrayed as the doings of the "Deep State", which is there to get Trump. And some will believe that idiotic line.

So don't think you won't be heard.

That’s why it’s all so funny when people like Trudeau turn all Trumpian in response and starts to tax his own citizens. — NOS4A2

Canada isn't going with 25% tariffs on everything, so the response isn't Trumpian. I find the 100% tariffs on Tesla quite apt to the situation. And of course, it can be something else:

Ontario Premier Doug Ford says he's willing to cut off power supply to the US if President Donald Trump continues with tariffs against Canada.

Ford announced his retaliatory plans shortly after Trump implemented a 25% tariff against Canadian imported goods and a 10% tariff on Canadian energy.

He said he would implement his own 25% surcharge on Canadian electricity exports to three US states: Michigan, New York and Minnesota.

If the US tariffs are escalated, he said, he would consider completely cutting those states off from Canadian power.

And on the other nonsense you write, it just reinforces my views that NATO is going to be dead, or at least Trump cannot be counted on. Perhaps the most optimist scenario is that the US goes for a while out during the Trumpian fit, just as De Gaulle took France a bit out from the pact for a while.

But likely the damage has been done.

Exactly. Just look at his official picture. It's just like his mugshot, actually. Not a happy man. Not now, coming back to the Presidency.



People were totally correct that this guy was waiting for four years just increasing his vindictiveness and grudges against everybody. Just look at his rant where he started to give the real reasons why he was so angry to Zelenskyi. On giving reasons why Russians broke cease-fires:

“They broke it with Biden, because Biden, they didn’t respect him. They didn’t respect Obama. They respect me,” Trump continued. “Let me tell you, Putin went through a hell of a lot with me.”

This above is the alarming part. He views as Putin having also to endure the "witch hunt". This idiot truly believes in Putin and thinks Putin is his friend. And then of course Hunter Biden's laptop scandal, which fell apart after Republicans’ star witness admitted that the story had been completely fabricated with help from top Russian officials. Zelenskyi then didn't do what Trump wanted, and Trump got impeached for the first time. So there's one personal reason for the grudge.

Russia having the most practically experienced military in the world and strong alliance partners. — Tzeentch

And having lost a lot of equipment, basically capable of making quite localized attacks. Perhaps several years of a cease-fire + sanctions put off, it would be totally different.

To top it off, we don't even know what will happen to Ukraine when the Americans leave. — Tzeentch

Ukrainians have resources for few months to half a year. That's it. Or Europe would really get it's act together. And they might, even if you don't want them to do that.

Like Ursula von den Leyen is purposing:

EU chief Ursula von der Leyen on Tuesday, March 4, presented a five-part plan to mobilize some €800 billion for Europe's defense – and help provide "immediate" military support for Ukraine after Washington suspended aid. "A new era is upon us," the European Commission president said in a letter presenting the plan to EU leaders, two days before a summit aimed at cementing joint action on support for Ukraine and European security longer term. "Europe faces a clear and present danger on a scale that none of us has seen in our adult lifetime," she wrote, as she outlined options for funding a European defense surge.

"'ReArm Europe' could mobilize close to €800 billion of defense expenditures for a safe and resilient Europe," she told reporters in Brussels as she outlined the contents of her plan.

With €800 billion you can help Ukraine a lot. And start replacing the weaknesses that you have for relying on the untrustworthy ally.

The idea that Russia is so strong and European countries so weak is just this mental barrier that we have in our minds. Because many Europeans don't simply believe in themselves.

another factor is that the non-MAGA'ers tend to be those that respect democracy (+ are less susceptible to conspiracy theories), and Trump did win the election after all. — jorndoe

And now I think it's time for a conspiracy theory, in my view. Europeans have to wake up and understand that they are alone. Or then they have to bow to the Kremlin, because it's Putin who is calling all the shots when it comes to what Trump does in Europe.

What scares me is the effect of a probable and severe US downturn on the world economy generally. Europe already is stagnating, plus it now has the additional burden of compensating for Trump's treachery in Ukraine. Here in Australia things are humming along OK but we're a minnow in world economic terms, and if there's a big worldwide downturn it is bound to affect us. — Wayfarer

What makes this worse is just listen now to Canadians. Listen really to the speech the leaving Trudeau gave.

You see it's one thing if you have a "normal" trade war about or industry or service. Then the usual discourse is that on this area the other one is "cheating" on some specific issue. And that's what trade policy is for. But everything on a 25% tariff? Everything? And it's not only that: another thing is offending people by talking about them becoming a 51st state and then starting a trade war because no other reason than you want foreigners to put their industries into the US. That is extremely offending and condescending. And now Canadians feel it's outright hostile.

And that's really bad, because they won't care about if the economy now goes south, because it's Trump. And Trump's going after their sovereignty. That kicks up Canadians totally differently.

When Trump comes to the European Union and gets us to a trade war, I think the outcome can be that the US really leaves NATO. Because nobody will say to Trump that it is a bad thing I fear. Someone like JD Vance and Musk are too far with the idea that "one has to shake up old liberal Europe".

My son has three cafés which have been doing fine but it's a sector that's highly vulnerable to reductions in spending and he's flat out just staying afloat as it is. He's never really seen a real recession - we managed to avoid one in the GFC - but the possibilities are grim. — Wayfarer

Well, what can we say, it's an experience. Basically a huge transfer of money from some people to others.

When I graduated from school, I could enjoy for a few months enjoying a strong economy, when you could as a young guy right from the Gymnasium (High School equivalent) pick the job you wanted and go there. Then I went to serve my conscription and the economy collapsed in a banking crisis. I assumed first, well, the recession will be over when I come back from the army. Not so, the economic depression lasted for about five years.... and never basically came back. Not like as then, when everybody was hiring.

Then why don't the US citizens who don't want this... do something about it? — Christoffer

What day is this of the Trump administration? This is only week seven.

Democrats are still shell shocked from losing the election. Didn't electrify them much to have first senile Biden as the candidate before Kamala was rushed their without any primary election. Then they still don't have had enough crap as the trade war is only starting (as is the recession, possibly). Then the MAGA crowd is still quite vocal and hostile. The Washington circle is quite lame and just stunned.

There's not yet the enthusiasm and the feeling to oppose Trump. The MAGA crowd however, has all the time had the enthusiasm as Hillary Clinton called them the deplorables. And of course, first people laughed at Trump. This created the group cohesion among the Trump supporters and after Jan 6th, they see them as part of the revolution.

The "counterrevolutionaries" haven't yet emerged, but when things go worse from here, they might. You see, it's not just the savings, the evident policy of "making the poor pay and take their service, while having brazen corruption". It's the total disregard of the separation of powers, when you freeze assets and spending that by law have been already passed by an entity that has no legal position.

This makes it all a constitutional crisis. Something that easily could lead in the worst case to violence as just is just craving to show crush possible open opposition towards him perhaps with the insurrection act.

Oh, I think the picture is taken from some Russian follower of X or something. Actually fittingly.

I just occasionally view X as it's simply a propaganda machine: however you can try to find the sane people's tweets/messages, along comes Elon Musk and the bunch.

There is nothing in Putin’s essay about any imperial ambitions. — NOS4A2

Really?

Putin starts it like this:

During the recent Direct Line, when I was asked about Russian-Ukrainian relations, I said that Russians and Ukrainians were one people – a single whole. These words were not driven by some short-term considerations or prompted by the current political context. It is what I have said on numerous occasions and what I firmly believe.

Try to say this, they are just one people, is quite an offense of another sovereign state. And he doesn't think this only as a shared heritage.

I am confident that true sovereignty of Ukraine is possible only in partnership with Russia.

Possible only in partnership with Russia. Quite clear there.

And then there's a multitude of lies how the Russian people have been robbed of Ukraine and how the independence of Ukraine is this machination from the evil West, hence the artificiality of a sovereign Ukraine.

We can disagree about minor details, background and logics behind certain decisions. One fact is crystal clear: Russia was robbed, indeed.

When working on this article, I relied on open-source documents that contain well-known facts rather than on some secret records. The leaders of modern Ukraine and their external ”patrons“ prefer to overlook these facts. They do not miss a chance, however, both inside the country and abroad, to condemn ”the crimes of the Soviet regime,“ listing among them events with which neither the CPSU, nor the USSR, let alone modern Russia, have anything to do. At the same time, the Bolsheviks' efforts to detach from Russia its historical territories are not considered a crime. And we know why: if they brought about the weakening of Russia, our ill-wishes are happy with that.

Hence it's the Bolsheviks and later on former head of Soviet Union that made this unjust thing for mother Russia. Now if you don't see the imperialism in this, you don't see much and are not as bright as I thought you are.

European law has primacy, I’m afraid. — NOS4A2

You think. If you think that the EU members are like Ohio and Wyoming, think again.

* * *

And now you do have the most dumbest trade war. So happy self-mutilation with raising prices that with 25% tariffs are a sure thing.

I'm just waiting when the idiot will start the trade war with the EU. Won't be long, I guess.

Trump is quite likely going to walk away from NATO, so I guess that's all that great winning. After all, when Elon agrees on something, it has to be a great idea.

I’ve just heard an interview with general Sir Richard Sherriff (ex chief of the European arm of NATO). Who has his finger on the pulse. That the Russian army is in a bad way. — Punshhh

And that's why Trump is a gift from heaven to Putin. Even still, Russia can fight with an army that is treated like shit. And when the Ukrainians can basically just defend, they will be OK.

You should not convince me. You should convince Trump. — neomac

One cannot convince Trump. Trump is Trump and will be the disaster he will be. One should convince Americans how much harm Trump is doing to you.

We have now the dumbest trade war in history and the self-mutilation of America has started. At worst, it can really end up in a violent confrontation inside the US. If Trump now, when he has Congress, has to resort to disregard totally the separation of powers, go after judges and fire generals, think what it will be like if Democrats take the House and Senate? You think Trump will somehow come to his senses.

No, if you listen to him, he is living in his alternate reality with 100+ billion aid becoming 350 billion aid.

For Trump, abandonment could be a policy goal or a bargaining chip. — neomac

Look. Trump takes these issues quite personally. Notice his rant about "He and Putin" being thrown into fire with the Russiagate. How was Putin under fire? That is the real Trump. Soft-skinned and vindictive narcissist, who has a lot of hate and revenge to give after all those court cases. When Europeans try to be diplomatic, he sees weakness. But when they dare to talk about the Atlantic Alliance, the rules based order, Trump sees just Biden loving liberals who he resents. That's why Europe and Trump are on a collision course and there's no way out of this.

Really, this isn't about bargaining. Heck, the bullying with tariffs got him Canada and Mexico to put troops on their borders. Well, that worked! They were OK with this kind of Trumpist bargaining. But was Trump satisfied with that? Hell no! Now after one month, he had to have the tariffs. Did he give anything for the tariffs? No, just drop dead and move your factories to the US. Well, trade creates prosperity, but when you put it like that, the response will be like Trudeau and Claudia Sheinbaum have given. And they are popular, because it's very popular to be against a bullying foreigner, that is an asshole. Because that's what Trump looks like outside the US (and inside for some).

I think we make a real failure of thinking that somehow Trump has logic and reason behind his actions. He doesn't. People desperately wish there would be and want to see that there is. You see, in his first Administration he didn't actually get much done, which is actually great. Because if the economy is Ok, Americans are happy. They might be happy if the POTUS would be a genuine live Duck named Donald, as long as the economy is OK. As ducks live more than four years, not hassle with Donald Duck.

But now, Trump, the Master-of-the-Universe, will want to do a lot. And he surely is doing a lot.

It will be really, really worse even than now.

As I've said, first the most hated person in the US will be Elon Musk. Then afterwards, the most hated president will be Trump. But before that, there will be those who truly support him.

Trump has no respect of the Constitution or the separation of powers. At worst, it really can come to a violent overthrow of him.

At worst.

Indeed, once the US breaks free from multilateral agreements (that could be vetoed), the costs of policing the world, and spinning the liberal-democratic propaganda, American foreign policies have an “unprecedented” wider spectrum of options (I’ve already talked about this one month ago [1]) also for decreasing their costs. This comes at the price however of accepting greater risks and more fluid alliances, hedged only to the extent the US maintains its military/technological/financial supremacy. — neomac

What are the "unprecented" wider spectrums? This seems even more delusionary than the Brexiteers talking of the wonderful new deals that the UK can do without "being shackled by the EU".

How is does to the maintaining of that military/technological/financial supremacy help to alienate Europe, push them to put up their own military-industrial complex, declare publicly that you are an untrustworthy ally, who might not be there for you and then start what the WSJ called the "Dumbest trade war in History"?

How does it help that? IT DOESN'T! It has totally the opposite effect.

Sorry, but it doesn't make any sense. What is there to "divide" between Russia and China. China's military allies would be traditionally North Korea (even if that is a bit tense) and Myanmar and perhaps Pakistan. And that's it. Russia has basically has North Korea, a comrade in arms, Belarus, that is problematic for Russia ...and Armenia, for which this alliance has been a disaster. And then real or perceived influence in Central Asia. Oh and perhaps Cuba and Venezuela. And that's it.

What are you dividing with these countries? Russians are just laughing at how the US is destroying it's might itself. Russian economy is the size of Italy.

What is the reason to walk away from your most powerful allies?

Only thing is that Trump is either truly agent Trumpov or that the MAGA-crowd hates so much the liberal international order that they will want to attack their allies, destroy everything that the US has been building for 75 years and have these dreams of "a new world order" growing out of it.

Ukraine really is here the key, because it's the key to European defense structure. Vast majority of European countries will unify behind the support of Ukraine. You can already see how this is happening: a coalition of the willing is extensively working together and they don't give a fuck about Hungary or Slovakia.

So back to blocking food from Gaza:

(BBC) Israel has blocked the entry of all humanitarian aid into Gaza as it demands Hamas agree to a US plan for a ceasefire extension.

The first phase of a truce deal mediated by Egypt, Qatar and the US expired on Saturday. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's office said Hamas was refusing to accept a temporary extension proposed by Donald Trump's envoy, Steve Witkoff.

A Hamas spokesman said blocking supplies to Gaza was "cheap blackmail" and a "coup" on the ceasefire agreement and urged mediators to intervene.

The ceasefire deal halted 15 months of fighting between Hamas and the Israeli military, allowing the release of 33 Israeli hostages for about 1,900 Palestinian prisoners and detainees.

What I don't like is that Merz is inviting this war criminal to Germany, but Germany naturally has the Hitler-complex to fear about, so they cannot tow the line as other Western countries (except the US) can condemn Israel's actions.

* * *

When Trump is halting aid from Ukraine and want's "it's money back", Bibi can thank him for the arms that Israel has gotten:

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu thanked US President Donald Trump’s administration for sending munitions he claimed had been held up by the previous administration, saying they would help Israel “finish the job” against Iran and its network of allied insurgent and terrorist groups.

The video of Trump berating Churchill is great. See If Trump was President in 1940

That would really be Trump in 1940. But the intelligence services of the Third Reich weren't so good as Soviet/Russian intelligence services have been.

Right, forced conscription. No elections. Opposition parties banned. Nationalized media. “Ukrainians themselves decide”. — NOS4A2

Well, I live in a country that has "forced conscription", where in my constitution it is written that "All Finnish citizens have a duty to defend their country". We, just like Sweden, have the idea of "Total defense". That's what you need to deter a bully next to you that will interfere in your matters and will try to dominate you. Worked against Stalin, will work against Putin. The doesn't have to have such, because you have oceans on both sides and Canada and Mexico.

And Ukraine's constitution declares that no elections under wartime. So you just go with meaningless Kremlin lines there of Zelenskyi being a dictator. Russia doesn't have free elections even during peacetime.

All of that is deep-state dinner-theater. — NOS4A2

For you, because you don't believe in your country. Or at least the country you moved away from (the US). If you believe that grifters like Elon Musk and Donald Trump will somehow save your country, when the don't give a rats ass to the values which America stood for, that's your problem. Luckily, as we have seen on this forum, not all Americans share your ideas. Yet when you think that your own government is the real enemy, then it's totally understandable that you believe the Kremlin lies. Unfortunately Putin isn't your friend.

Russians have been saying for decades that they would intervene should Nato integration sharpen ethnic divisions and create civil war in Ukraine, which it did. — NOS4A2

And they intervened also in Moldova, which by Constitution cannot join a military alliance. Sorry, but you cannot ignore the ugly truth that this is also an imperial enterprise, the reconquista of Novorossiya, because Ukraine is an artificial country. Russia would have done this and had bases in the Baltics already for a long time if there wouldn't have been a NATO.

Not a single one of them mentioned a return of the Russian empire. — NOS4A2

So you are totally clueless about this. Start with Putin's "On the Historical Unity of Russians and Ukrainians" speech. That's Putin's Mein Kampf where he spills out what is the right future for Ukraine. And then there's ample amount of Russian propaganda about this intended for the Russian people and how Russia will conquer back Novorossiya, New Russia, as it was called.

A picture of a woman holding the "Correct" map in 2015:

Independent and sovereign states, eh? Which law has supremacy, Finnish law or EU law? — NOS4A2

You understand the difference between a confederacy or an union. I've always said that the EU is a confederacy of independent states desperately trying to be an union. So in the end, it's Finnish law. Just as it is if the country is us or Hungary or Spain etc.

We declined the fantasy of taking back our old possessions since the day we lost them all! :rofl: — javi2541997

But the absurdity of it to us Europeans does tell about the insanity of Putin. An European politician saying similar things and we would think he's lost his marbles. Spaniards understand that they have lost their empire. The British understand that they have lost their empire. What we now have to show the Russians that they too have lost their empire and the they will just do enormous harm to themselves in trying to regain back that empire.

If every European nation would pick from it's history when it was the largest and declare this to the "be the natural state" and then demand that these territories belong to them and any state now existing in them are purely "artificial", we easily understand what kind of a Pandora's box we would open. And we understand that EU was formed because many millions of Europeans had died in two World Wars. Nowhere else has there been such a massacre of people. It's because of those millions of dead that the idea of European integration did achieve so much.

Yet people like Putin (and Trump) don't see it as this way. And a lot of appeasers come to proclaim that these insane visions are "realpolitik".

I'm not. I think it's easy to speak support and much harder to actually do it and get consistent support for it over a longer time period (which we'll need). You'd think this sort of thing transcends party politics but it's very clear in the Netherlands they don't. — Benkei

It will be a coalition of the willing. Always. And that's fine with me.

I wouldn't like an EU that would behave like an imperial entity. Europe doesn't need the integration that Napoleon or Hitler attempted to do. Besides, a confederation of democratic states will always look like a laughable crowd of chickens to an autocrat.

BTL Comments are open and should be interesting to read... — Amity

Marco Rubio, Trump’s obsequious secretary of state, spoke revealingly last month about his vision of a 21st-century world dominated by the US, Russia and China, and divided into 19th-century geopolitical spheres of influence. It was necessary to rebuild US relations with Moscow, Rubio argued, to maintain this imperious tripartite balance of power. — The Guardian - Simon Tisdall

This is as stupid as the Project for the New American Century was that was cherished by the neocons, who then actually got into power. The problem that the decisive diplomatic and military victory that the US had with liberating Kuwait went to the heads of the neocons. So they thought they really could mold the Middle East into something new. Because the US foreign policy didn't have to anticipate any countermove from the Soviet Union anymore, the sanity of US foreign policy was lost... at least in the Middle East. Now you have an even more insane MAGA-thinking dominating the US. This kind of thinking is really as damaging as was going for Iraq, that didn't have any nuclear weapons.

If Rubio truly talks about Russian domination, what would the Russians dominate? What is he letting Russia and China dominate in this surrender deal? I think Europe has a say to this and naturally threatened the EU and other members of NATO will find each other. This kind of thinking is the worst kind of defeatism that one can think of. Why alienate your friends and bow in front of your enemies? You think Putin that has Trump on the ropes will genuinely have the respect? No, they have a word for this in Russian, a "useful idiot".

And China? Likely China wanting to be in good terms with Europe will resent this kind of division. And Russia can go along with these warm ties as long as it divides the US from it's former allies.

This all is possible, because the MAGA-crowd believes their worst enemy is the US government itself. So they have to decapitate themselves by attacking the "Deep State". And because Biden and Obama were for NATO, it's natural that Trump is against it.

But then, we do have the madman right next to us with a country, which has only the idea of being an empire.

I'm a long time reservist and been in the voluntary training of reservists for decades. I remember once sitting down with fellow reserve officers and non-coms who have dedicated quite a lot to voluntary work for the military and said: "I guess none of us would be here, if on our Eastern border there would be Canada." They all agreed. None of them likely would have gone to the military in that position. I definately wouldn't have, because I thought it would be a nightmare for me. Well, it wasn't, especially afterwards.

And this is the absolute question for the Dutch, the country is one of most strategic places for Europe with having the important artery of Rotterdam. Yet you have all around quite nice countries. Belgium isn't bellicose towads you and the Germans aren't either coming. Spanish are even less are thinking of taking back their old possessions. When the Soviet Empire had it tanks in East Germany, that was close enough for you to have a large army and conscription. It was easy to see the threat. Now it's far more difficult, because Russia isn't threatening the territory of the Netherlands. But it will try to attack and dissolve the EU just as it tries to dissolve NATO. And that does create a threat.

In my view Netherlands has been one country, that has really put it's cards into the existence of NATO. When Elon Musk is wanting the US to ditch NATO and UN (which the latter would have tremendous effect on UN decisions towards the Palestinian conflict), this is a new situation. The dramatics won't end up these weeks that we have seen now.

Perhaps it's the contrast to what comes out of America, but European leaders seem to be dealing with the new situation quite well and understanding the situation. At least I'm hopeful.

I think Trump will organize a yalta-like moment where he sits down with Putin and maybe XI and/or Modi too, to settle the war, come up with the beginnings of a new plan for Europa and the middle east with less involvement of the US, so they can re-locate forces to the pacific to where the balance of power has shifted. — ChatteringMonkey

Likely Trump doesn't understand just how against this goes his allies, if we can call them those, who aren't for this kind of decision making. Above all, any meeting of this kind would be either a nonevent or at worst, a total disastrous for the US as Trump is really a bad negotiator. If he would have written himself the Art of the Deal, he maybe a negotiator, but he isn't. Everything from surrender deal made to the Taleban to the castigation of Zelenskyi shows this.

They will leave the war, whether Europe agrees with it or not. And then Europe will be faced with a decision to either continue the war, and face possible consequence of twarting Trump, or go along with it and agree to peace on his terms. — ChatteringMonkey

And just what will Trump leave? This isn't and hasn't been anymore the question of just Ukraine. I think Europe will leave an open door for the US to come back, if it wants, but otherwise the thing is written on the wall. Only Trump can withdraw from NATO, but now Europe has to go alone. Nobody would think that Trump would lift a finger to defend for example the Baltic States, which is the reasoning that Europe has to restructure it's defenses. Naturally it can say it's just doing what Trump wants when rearming

Now there's a lot of support for continuing the war, but I don't expect that to last when the consequences of it start to dawn on the more pragmatic elites in Europe. — ChatteringMonkey

It's not a question of pragmatism, it's a question how close Russia is to you. Let's remember that Russia wants NATO to withdraw from the Baltics, from Sweden and Finland, from Poland, from Romania. So for a lot of NATO countries the support for Ukraine and spending more on defense is quite pragmatic and logical approach. Not perhaps for Portugal.

You already are seeing how closely is the UK and Norway working with EU countries, so what is forming here is a "coalition of the willing". Likely the UK with France and Germany and Northern Europe, the Baltic States and Poland. Naturally all these countries want to keep the US in NATO, but you never know what agent Trumpov will do.

And really you can look at it in two ways, 1) a bunch of illiberal autocrats carving up the world that must be opposed at all cost, or 2) the beginnings of a more stable organisation of the region without the US. — ChatteringMonkey

How about a synthesis: an unstable World were bunch of illiberal autocrats try carving up the World and others desperately trying to hold on to a rules based order.

I think we should stop fighting the geo-political wave lest we drown, and try to ride it in a direction that actually has some potential. — ChatteringMonkey

We aren't drowning, even Ukraine isn't yet. Those who think the MAGA-movement is the new geo-political wave might be the ones that will do the drowning, thanks to the wisdom of their awesome leaders like Musk, Trump and Vance.

This is the reality of their immense brilliance:

Elon Musk, who holds no official cabinet position in the administration, wrote on social media that he agrees the United States should leave NATO and the United Nations.

On Saturday, Musk quote-tweeted “I agree” to a post from someone who wrote, “It’s time to leave NATO and the UN.”

People really should wake up to see how insane these morons are. I can easily agree with Friedrich Merz that NATO won't last to it's next summit in the summer. Or perhaps there Trump walks out of it. Something that is totally possible.

.

Maybe you could be right. Big imperial powers tend to become unstable too over time and split or dissolve, it's not certain for example that the US will still be there in a few decades the way they are going at the moment. — ChatteringMonkey

You have now a former Superpower dissolving it's power and the other Superpower shedding it's power by it's own actions.

The first example is of course Putin's Russia, with the Russian dictator hell bent on correcting the greatest tragedy of his lifetime, the collapse of the Soviet Union, and trying to reinstate Russian power to it's former glory. He gambled heavily and won big with a bold military operation of annexing Crimea. But then, as usual, he thought that it was true what his underlings eagerly said to him, that the rest of Ukraine would be a walkover, that he could quickly take Kyiv and install a puppet regime there and annex parts of Ukraine to create again Novorossiya. Then Russia would be back on it's former glory and could deal with Europe.

Well, the luck of the gambler change and he was mired into a large conventional war.

The second example is far more curious, and I think never has happened in history. Simply put it, the two power sharing parties in the US have always have their "fringe" groups, but with Trump, populists with ties to the alt-right took over the Republican party. In the first Trump administration, when Trump hadn't so much thought he would win, this fringe wasn't ready and many parts of the administration was manned with conventional conservative Republicans. But after January 6th, Trump has gained total control of the party and molded the old Republican party to a MAGA crowd, which has no resemblence with being conservative and old school Republican. Nobody will question him, because anybody that would oppose him is threatened with a MAGA candidate opposing him or her in the primaries. And better to lose in the general election, than be banished by the MAGA tribe.

And with power going to his head, Trump as the "Master of the Universe" starts with royal decrees called executive orders (because why would he try anything as difficult and time consuming as passing legislation) to mold the US and the World to his liking. Make Gaza a resort! Annex Greenland and Panama, make Canada the 51st state of the US, have a drug-war in Mexico! And then of course, have quickly a peace in Ukraine and get that Nobel-prize, just like Obama. And do deals with Russia.

And the asset and his handler have a wonderful relationship as Trump will help Putin from the quagmire that Putin is in Ukraine and Trump can be lured to believing that he will get lucrative deals from Russia. If Trump fell for those talks of having hotels in Moscow earlier, he surely will fall for Russia deals worth billions and billions of dollars.

This will alienate the European allies of the US, which Trump sees no importance in valuing. They, perhaps with the exception of Hungary, talk of those values that Trump's enemies, Obama and Biden, talked so much about, like international rules based order and the stuff. Hence in his ignorance, Trump will push away the former allies of the US. Trump simply doesn't understand how irritating is for someone like Musk and Vance supporting Germany's AfD. It is similar to what Putin did in the US. Now some might argue that Trump can easily change his stance, but I disagree. He has never said anything negative of Putin, ever.

Yet it's always the ineptness of Trump that will backfire here. I gather that there's not going to be the Trump peace in Ukraine, just as the new shared friendship with Russia won't become the success story that Trump think it will be. Trump has already started the smear campaign against Ukraine.

And anyway, Trump's popularity will fall with the economy, which is heading likely to a recession. But even if then Trump has to focus on the domestic economy, he has already done a huge disservice to the US.

Looks like we can go it alone after all. — Punshhh

Yes. Hopefully we will just get to have that will and not buy the MAGA-American defeatism.

Some countries have helped more Ukraine with what they have, than others:


The truth is a war against Russia is totally winnable in the sense that you don't have to surrender. Japan, Poland and my country have shown it.

:smile: :

In effect, though, what the EU and NATO are doing is sacrificing their own economies and Ukrainian soldier’s lives on the altar of what amounts to political theater. — NOS4A2

Wrong. Ukrainians themselves decide how long they will fight. If they want to continue the fight for their independence, we can give them the weapons.

We know none of this is about democracy, freedom, human rights and other verbal claptrap — NOS4A2

Wrong, this is about those values and the independence of sovereign states and defense of the Russian reconquista Putin has started. And Putin would have started that with or without NATO. The collapse of the Soviet Union was the greatest tragedy in history, remember?

or else it would have raised a huff when the US ousted the democratically-elected leader of Ukraine, causing a civil war. — NOS4A2

Wrong again. The Ukrainian revolution wasn't a US controlled ouster (like Operation Ajax), but a uprising that Ukraine has had many. That not even the Donbass rebels wanted this thug back tells how unpopular the leader was. (After all, wouldn't it had been credible for them to have Yanukovych as their leader?)

We know it isn't some principled stand against Russian expansionism or meddling — NOS4A2

It is a stand against Russian expansionism and meddling. So wrong again, NOS.

because the EU has been trying to annex Ukraine for years, for the sole purpose of exploiting it for grain and fuel. — NOS4A2

Lol. Going off the far end here? Nations can send in their applications if they want to join. And even in the negotiations, then can view it that it's not worth it. Just like, well, Norway did. Hilarious to see EU as an Great power, as everybody knows its a confederation of quite independent states.

We know it isn’t about sovereignty because the EU is supranationalist. — NOS4A2

Wrong again. For members like Poland, Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, Finland, Sweden, Romania, it genuinely is about sovereignty. It starts from things that Russia demands to have a veto on what actions as sovereign states can European countries do. Like to join EU or to join NATO. That kind of sovereignty issues.

So all this preening comes at the expense of the reality. — NOS4A2

Your the one living in the Trump coocoo-echo chamber.

Hell, only one country involved in that war attacked EU jurisdiction when it sabotaged those pipelines, and oddly enough it’s the same country the snivelling bureaucrats there wish to fund. — NOS4A2

Russia is actively cutting cables in the Baltic (Gulf of Finland), just some kilometers off where I live, so...

As you live Canada, why don't you go to the local pub there wearing your MAGA hat and ask how eager they are to join the US as the 51st state.
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