• Benkei
    7.7k
    This is a very specialised subject, for which I apologise in advance. I hope to receive some feedback nevertheless!

    In Europe there was an exemption for pension funds from the central clearing obligation but this is only temporary. Pension funds are historically investors that have a unidirectional portfolio (mostly buy and hold investment) and are fully invested.

    If they would go to central clearing the central clearing party will demand that any variation margin (another name for collateral) is posted in cash and won't allow the pension funds to post bonds (that they already own) as variation margin for a variety of reasons.

    Pension funds themselves are not to keen on posting variation margin in bonds either, because when they do, they'd want an equivalent bond back and not end up receiving French bonds back when the market moves in their favour when they originally posted German bonds.

    Another option is for the pension funds to enter into a repurchase agreement with another counterparty. The bank temporarily sells a bond, receives cash and buys back the bond at an agreed end date. He will pay a repurchase fee for this and basically is a secured loan (the other party holds the bond as collateral). That way the pension funds receives cash, which it can post as variation margin.

    This works fine in normal markets but not in stressed markets. The risk that they cannot transform their bonds, is what is called the transformation risk.

    So, one solution I was now thinking of is the following and I wonder whether it will work:

    What if the CCP creates an actively managed ETF with a certain basket of high-quality bonds (that all pension funds have) and simultaneously forces its clearing members to accept ETF shares as variation margin?

    The pension funds deliver a creation basket and receive, in return, ETF-shares. They continue to have a right to all the returns of the underlying basket they delivered via the ETF-shares minus the creation fee and any adminstration fees the ETF charges. When pension funds are confronted with a margin call, they deliver ETF-shares instead of cash. This should start acting as a standardised non-cash variation margin within this CCP - almost as good as money - as the fund is backed up by a diversified portfolio of high-grade bonds. Presumably, the end user ultimately entitled to the variation margin, won't mind receiving it as collateral because it's freely tradeable (for cash) or could be redeemed (for bonds).

    The pension fund won't have to worry he won't receive equivalent securities back any more because it's ETF-shares all around.

    Basically, I'm suggesting to create a liquid alternative to cash in the form of ETF securities but it seems as such a simple solution that I suspect I'm missing something because brighter minds in the industry haven't thought of it yet.
  • kazan
    152
    Sorry to spoil this thread's 8 yr history of 0 replies, but yr propositional layout is too important/tantalizing to ignore. "Brighter minds" are probably hoping no one suggests such a creation/use of EFT- shares because it (might) corrodes their current exemption status. Also, any loss of flexibility/control over the particular mix of their portfolios; they undoubted trade parts of their "buy and hold" ( resort the mix) when they deem it advantageous/ necessary, would be resisted.
    But back to yr suggested structure, the concern would be: if the market is stressed enough to cause the funds issues converting bonds to cash to satisfy a margin call, won't "yr" EFT securities be downgraded in value when the end user converts them to cash?
    But that's not the real issue is it? The CCP's purpose is to prevent the over reaching of pension funds... mismanagement that is, causing loss to the pension funds' investors. Can tying up a portion of a pension fund's collateral help or just take pressure of national governments propping up f/ailing pension funds? Probably!
    The Australian Federal govt/Reserve Bank holds cash reserves of banks in country ( they were called Short and Long term deposits...50 yrs ago.Don't know the current name for them) in return for govt guaranteeing "extreme" margin calls...runs...
    Sadly,this reply hasn't answered yr question, just restated the reason for yr creative thinking. Can't put the finger on it, but like you sense, there is a feeling that yr layout lacks something. Hope this hasn't wasted yr time (reading this), but at least shows there are others who share such interests, if not yr level of informedness...
    Did the PFs eventually get brought into the CCP's net? If so, under which system, standard cash conversion or mixed quality bonds... pay good money for a pg in a poke?....smile tinged with world wise sadness.
  • Vera Mont
    4.3k
    Capitalism exposed. Very nice!
  • ssu
    8.6k
    First question here is of course cui bono? Who is the Central Clearing Party and how much power the pension funds themselves have? Then what's at stake for the sovereign states now having basically their monetary policy in the Euro-system handled by the ECB. Basically we have learnt from past financial crisis is that the market is let to act as if free markets when things go up and in a crash those that have power and influence will have their asses saved as "too big to fail". And likely it will happen so the next time: the rules are one in good times, in crisis few people decide how to bail out "the system". And then anything goes, hell with the free markets or laws covering them.

    Hence it always irks me when someone tells something is "as good as money" as money in this current global monetary system isn't so great (except if you are a rich borrower investing it in something profitable).

    This works fine in normal markets but not in stressed markets. The risk that they cannot transform their bonds, is what is called the transformation risk.Benkei
    So basically what your idea is that this ETF would work better in that situation?

    So, one solution I was now thinking of is the following and I wonder whether it will work:

    What if the CCP creates an actively managed ETF with a certain basket of high-quality bonds (that all pension funds have) and simultaneously forces its clearing members to accept ETF shares as variation margin?
    Benkei
    Who will manage this and what are their incentives in picking "high-quality bonds" or determines what "high-quality bonds" are in the first place? Especially if such as large investors as pension funds have to use the ETF? Would this be a way to dump some toxic Greek debt to the pension funds as just paint lipstick on it and call it high-quality bonds?

    And since @kazan dug this up after eight years, perhaps first question is if this is still current. What has happened in the last eight years?
  • kazan
    152
    Yes,what is the current situation? Anyone the wiser? History supports/ highlights/encourages ssu's line of questions. Individuals may "frown" at their (the questions') expression/ vocabulary. :smile: Notwithstanding, although the issue may be the EU's now, when other govts attempt to crash proof certain industries, such mechanisms will again be canvassed.
  • Benkei
    7.7k
    The current situation is more or less the same. Most pension funds are trading IRS via clearing systems now and the depth of repurchasing agreement is sufficient at the time. Nobody sees it as a problem because they are not looking at the issue from a stressed market perspective. The beauty of the setup is that under stressed markets the flight to safety will cause high quality liquid assets to rise in value, causing the ETF values to increase as well, which means pension funds will need less ETFs to meet their variation margin obligations dampening the effect of out-of-the-money price swings of their IRS as a result of stressed markets.

    So basically what your idea is that this ETF would work better in that situation?ssu

    Yes, if you set up the fund to allow designated pension schemes to create and redeem baskets they can always create more ETF shares since they already hold the underlying bonds as part of their investment portfolio.

    Who will manage this and what are their incentives in picking "high-quality bonds" or determines what "high-quality bonds" are in the first place? Especially if such as large investors as pension funds have to use the ETF? Would this be a way to dump some toxic Greek debt to the pension funds as just paint lipstick on it and call it high-quality bonds?ssu

    Pick any fund manager and they will probably be prepared to murder the competition manage this fund as just the European market is estimated to need around 250 billion EUR to manage a 100 bps interest rate swing, meaning in a steady-state as part of a mix of other liquid assets pension schemes will hold, the ETF fund will be a few billions at any given time with serious spikes possible depending on market circumstances. A regular ETF management fee will be more than enough. The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust is slightly more than half a billion. Such a fund would always be massive.
  • kazan
    152
    Thank you, Benkei.
  • ssu
    8.6k
    For starters, I think the whole monetary system will sooner or later collapse. But that later can be in 10, perhaps even 50 years. And if it happens in 50 years, nobody cares about it.

    Preparing for the worst is always sound. But here's the problem: we never do it. Unfortunately.

    And this is the problem for all the markets, actually.

    Hence I think that the Central Bankers can and will come up with various arrangements to keep the markets from collapsing. And the private sector, the pension funds, will be an actor they might use or abuse here. Already pensions will be a problem in future years because of the aging of the people in various countries. The usual way to handle it is to get new laws that will diminish the pensions of the people that are now babies and children: they aren't voting yet. But when there's private money around so much as the pension funds have, there's an incentive to use them and hide the central bank intervention into being just actions or private market participants.
  • Lionino
    2.7k
    Sorry to spoil this thread's 8 yr history of 0 replieskazan

    :rofl: :rofl: :rofl:
  • kazan
    152
    Lioino... Yr appreciation duelly noted, with a smile and a possibly deliberate spelling "mistake". another smile.
    ssu.... Why do you think "...the whole monetary system will.... collapse"? Particularly, as you set this thought in a shorter than geological time frame, if that is yr intention?. Genuinely curious.
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