Biden has been stooging for the Israeli government in the hopes of securing support from the Israel lobby, which could in turn make the difference in the upcoming election.

However, Biden's popularity is tanking, and a big reason for that is his unconditional support for Israel and the extension of a blank cheque to Netanyahu after the October attacks. A blank cheque which the Israelis happily cashed in as they went all-in on a punitive campaign against a trapped civilian population.

In addition, there are many other things that make Biden unpopular. Project Ukraine is a neocon endeavor that Biden has long been a part of, and it is widely regarded as being in the process of failling. His age is also an obvious problem.

There are two things that could save his election: A) Trump being unable to run, or B) a war breaking out.

In other words, the Israel lobby's importance in the upcoming election is diminishing, and as such the US may take a harder stance on Israel, since Israel is estranging itself from the entire world with its genocidal behavior, and its dragging the US down with it, destroying what little credibility the US had left.

Biden has been stooging for the Israeli government in the hopes of securing support from the Israel lobby, which could in turn make the difference in the upcoming election. — Tzeentch

How's that different from Trump?



In fact, if Trump's great achievement, putting his son-in-law Jared to lead the Middle East, just how then is this different? In an interview he later did, Jared showed that he admired Netanyahu, thought that he was for the peace process, didn't remember when Israel snatched the Golan Heights from Syria and gave as the reason for accepting that annexation and moving the Embassy to Jerusalem was to gain "goodwill" from Israel.

Why would there be change then when Trump comes around...again?

The only reason would be if Trump's base would be upset about Israel. It's not. It's the leftist students in the university campuses and the Arab Americans who are upset about the treatment of Palestinians. Not Trump's base. If that base suddenly would "get woke" about Palestine, then of course Trump would be the worst nightmare for Israel. I'm sure that

In other words, the Israel lobby's importance in the upcoming election is diminishing, and as such the US may take a harder stance on Israel, since Israel is estranging itself from the entire world with its genocidal behavior, and its taking the US with it, destroying what little credibility it had left. — Tzeentch

These issues take time to change. Years, actually.

And one ISIS strike, similar as in Russia, can change views dramatically.

The only reason would be if Trump's base would be upset about Israel. It's not. It's the leftist students in the university campuses and the Arab Americans who are upset about the treatment of Palestinians. — ssu

You don't think there are many normal people looking at what is happening in Gaza and drawing their conclusions? Where I live we call this "the silent majority".

At any rate, I'm not an American so I couldn't tell you exactly why people are favoring Trump over Biden, or why Americans believe Trump might be able to change things.

I think the whole slew of failed policies Biden is responsible for plays a big role, and that includes their failure to stop Israel from crossing the line.

Maybe it's just a matter of Biden having been so atrocious that any alternative, including Trump, is considered better.

Just look at how desperately the US is trying to play both sides:

US says ceasfire resolution non-binding

Suddenly UNSC resolutions are non-binding. Even an IR freshman could tell you UNSC resolutions are legally binding.

This would be hilarious if it weren't for the 'aiding and abetting genocide' part.

It just shows how powerful the Israel lobby is in the US. No other ally has this kind of "special treatment", because the Israeli lobby is one of the most powerful lobbies in Washington.

Actually many Israelis have pointed out that Joe Biden could have done what Bibi did with Obama: simply bypass Bibi and talk to the Israeli people / the Knesset directly. The thing is that the hugely traumatized and angry people wouldn't want to hear about the peace process, but they could have heard of not making the same mistakes that America did, which Biden was talking about. The simply fact is that Israel needs a policy what to do after the last battalion of Hamas is destroyed as a battalion. Hallucinations of "voluntary transportation" of people away from Gaza to a third country is not reality.

I agree, the lobby is extremely powerful, and I think that's why Biden dared not bypass Netanyahu (who is heavily favored by the lobby). It's also worth mentioning that Obama was in a much, much stronger position than Biden is today, which allowed him to take a tougher stance on Israel.

Right now, it appears as though Netanyahu is trying to leverage Biden's weak position, but he's nearing the end of the rope.

US support for Israel is tanking US credibility pretty much across the globe. Arab nations are an especially important factor in this, because US influence in the region is rapidly waning and basically all Arab nations are aligning themselves with the BRICS, threatening to cut the US out.

I think soon the Israeli government and the lobby will realise that there are in fact things more important to the United States than US-Israel relations, and that overplaying their hand is going to fundamentally hamstring their position in the future.

As for the Israeli policy vis-á-vis Gaza and the West Bank, it's becoming painfully clear what that is:

UN expert says Israel has committed genocide in Gaza, calls for arms embargo

Note: not "potential" genocide - actual genocide.

Too many posters on this thread are looking through glasses - lenses - encrusted with junk. The templates they see that they think are derived from the world are instead artifacts of defective optics. A little lens cleaner might help. The purposes of the Arabs/Palestinians/Hamas are simply based in their beliefs and ideologies. The Israelis/Jews, on the other hand, are and have been literally fighting for their lives. And while this has been the reality of generations/centuries/millennia, 7 Oct. 2023 simply made clear and explicit the bestiality of Arab intentions and practices. As such, until and unless adjudicated, there is no reason to consider anything ante-7 Oct. That is, the animal who brutalized and outraged your daughter before, during, and after murdering her may be just misunderstood, but his actions make that for the while irrelevant: his own statement being that he is no better than an animal, a vicious one.

Hostages returned, criminals apprehended, justice served, then and only then back to pre-existing concerns.

Too many posters on this thread are looking through glasses - lenses - encrusted with junk. The templates they see that they think are derived from the world are instead artifacts of defective optics. A little lens cleaner might help. The purposes of the Arabs/Palestinians/Hamas are simply based in their beliefs and ideologies. The Israelis/Jews, on the other hand, are and have been literally fighting for their lives. And while this has been the reality of generations/centuries/millennia, 7 Oct. 2023 simply made clear and explicit the bestiality of Arab intentions and practices. As such, until and unless adjudicated, there is no reason to consider anything ante-7 Oct. That is, the animal who brutalized and outraged your daughter before, during, and after murdering her may be just misunderstood, but his actions make that for the while irrelevant: his own statement being that he is no better than an animal, a vicious one. — tim wood

Ah yes, cast off your junk encrusted lenses obscuring your vision! and put on my lenses that are totally opaque to anything that happened after October 7th and also anything before that is inconvenient to my belief Arabs are animal beasts!

How is this language, and the poster who posts it, even tolerated on the forum?

Right, in other words:

"It's not me who is crazy. It's the whole world that is crazy."

You realize how rare it is for almost literally the entire world to agree on something in the UNSC and UNGA?

Too many posters on this thread are looking through glasses - lenses - encrusted with junk. The templates they see that they think are derived from the world are instead artifacts of defective optics. — tim wood

Weren’t you the one saying you consider October 7th to be the beginning of this and that nothing prior matters?

Yes but please do lecture us more about “defective optics.”

Weren’t you the one saying you consider October 7th to be the beginning of this and that nothing prior matters? — Mikie

Tell me, O wise one, when does it all begin? Who threw the first stone to injure the other? Who destroyed the kingdoms of the other without just cause? What year is the line in the sand where it all begins?

Tell me, O wise one, when does it all begin? — BitconnectCarlos

What a stupid question.

Not a history major, I see.

No, I was a philosophy major. We thought about big ideas. Like how dumb it is to try to draw a definitive line in this conflict where "everything begins."

But we also understand that certain mindsets are conducive to peace while others are not.

No, I was a philosophy major. We thought about big ideas. Like how dumb it is to try to draw a definitive line in this conflict where "everything begins." — BitconnectCarlos

Exactly. But it’s odd that you’re the one asking for such a stupid thing.

My point was that if we always just keep looking back there'll always be a reason for violence. Some grievance at play whether current or historical.

How is this language, and the poster who posts it, even tolerated on the forum? — boethius

7 October is a fact. The events of 7 October are a fact. The behaviour of Arab/Palestinian/Hamas on 7 Oct, murderous and bestial, also a fact. But there is one whole side of this thread that simply fails/refuses to address those facts. "Oh my yes!" they proclaim, "They did bad things, but those poor people, the awful Jews made them do it." And then they dismiss the Arab side of it, as has been done since at least Yasser Arafat in my recollection, and according to others, well before that.

That leaves the Israeli/Jews essentially isolated. With some allies to be sure, but in many ways alone. So, who are we to question what the Israeli/Jew thinks best to do to keep alive when we simply do not live in his world. And how much better it would be if an international police force and court had presented itself to take over a criminal prosecution of the perpetrators of 7 Oct.?

Weren’t you the one saying you consider October 7th to be the beginning of this and that nothing prior matters? — Mikie

Nope, not the beginning, but a boundary that when crossed took all prior matters off the table until this one settled. As with a rabid dog or a medical emergency, you do what is necessary first. In the present case hostages and criminals.

Too many posters on this thread are looking through glasses - lenses - encrusted with junk. — tim wood

And then a give a repeat of the propaganda given through pro-Israeli glasses:

The purposes of the Arabs/Palestinians/Hamas are simply based in their beliefs and ideologies. The Israelis/Jews, on the other hand, are and have been literally fighting for their lives. And while this has been the reality of generations/centuries/millennia, 7 Oct. 2023 simply made clear and explicit the bestiality of Arab intentions and practices. — tim wood

Wonderful. :cheer:

Also It's a perfect example of the "shock - anger - revenge" mentality that took over also in 9/11. The obvious symptom is that people need to rally around the flag, defend all the actions of the government that has been attacked by the terrorists. Anything else would feel to these people like aiding the terrorists. Even to ask what will happen in the long run, how viable is the policy of revenge is outrageous. Or unpatriotic, or in this case, anti-semitic.

US support for Israel is tanking US credibility pretty much across the globe. Arab nations are an especially important factor in this, because US influence in the region is rapidly waning and basically all Arab nations are aligning themselves with the BRICS, threatening to cut the US out.

I think soon the Israeli government and the lobby will realise that there are in fact things more important to the United States than US-Israel relations, and that overplaying their hand is going to fundamentally hamstring their position in the future. — Tzeentch

It's not so severe as you make it to sound, because once the operation ends and we have some kind of a cease-fire, then the people will forget the issue. Out of sight, out of mind.

This goes only so long as Palestinians are indeed dying and the death toll rises and is noted in the media.

The likely change is that simply to criticize Israeli policies won't be a political suicide in the US. But then again, criticizing US-NATO relationship hasn't been anywhere near a political suicide ever, hence this change isn't so huge as we think.

Nope, not the beginning, but a boundary that when crossed took all prior matters off the table until this one settled. As with a rabid dog or a medical emergency, you do what is necessary first. In the present case hostages and criminals. — tim wood

Boundaries were crossed by both sides repeatedly well before that and more often and egregiously by Israel. So once again, it's dumb and they are quite horrible and racist generalisations about Arabs. Nice going. I hope your racist ass chokes on a peanut or something.

I get that the conflict in Ukraine is of primary importance for the EU and Russia, but if you are focusing on the swing of power between China and the US, I’m not sure that the difference between likely outcomes either in the Ukrainian conflict or in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict would make a difference for China and the US. As you say “the struggle between the two is primarily elsewhere”. Besides the conflict in Ukraine still looks far from being settled in a way that is amenable to most certainly boost China's or the US's hegemony.

Well the difference in outcomes is enormous for the EU and Russia. It is important for the balance of power between the U.S. and China because if Russia wins, it will bolster Russia’s position on the world stage and become a serious threat to European security. This would weaken the EU and probably lead to another European war in a decade or so. Where as if Russia loses in Ukraine, it will likely result in Russian collapse, splintering of her client states etc, strengthen and clearly define the EU to include Ukraine. This will likely put the EU on course for superpower status and a strong ally of the U.S. The U.S. and EU working together in coalition through NATO would be a formidable foe for China.

with cascading dividends for world hegemonic powers (the US, China or Russia) because the US then would be facilitated in pulling out from the middle east and re-invest its military capital/troops elsewhere to contain China. Yet, as I anticipated, it’s not easy to pull out from the middle-east:

Yes if the U.S. were to pull out from the Middle East it would change things, but as you say it’s not likely any time soon.

I already answered that question. Russia and the US are the first ones to come to mind. Both may have strong incentives to play divide et impera strategies in Europe to preserve their supremacy.

Nonsense, the U.S. is most powerful working alongside a powerful successful EU. If the U.S. were to go down this line you suggest, it would lead to the break up of the EU, the advance of Russia, and a generation of wars in Europe, which would try to draw the U.S. in many times and which would guarantee China’s hegemony with Russia as her side kick. Regarding Russia, she has been trying to meddle in Europe for a long time, nothing has changed in that.

The prospects vary among superpowers. But only in the EU the situation looks so worrisome in all domains at the same time, at least now.

Yes, the EU is fragile as a fledgling Union, however I don’t see it failing any time soon. The mutual benefit to the member states is to strong a motivation to avoid collapse.

What act are you talking about? The massacre of October 7 is the act carried out by Hamas. This act can be accused of being genocidal: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Allegations_of_genocide_in_the_2023_Hamas-led_attack_on_Israel . Is such act genocidal or not, to you? If not, what DEMONSTRATES that it is not, to you?

Yes the supporters of Israel and the Jewish lobby etc will naturally claim October 7th as genocide. But if we set the bar so low it will bring thousands of small conflicts around the world into the definition. My bar is very high and I have heard numerous legal specialists on the media casting doubt on what is a genocide in this situation. As I say, for me it is the deliberate starvation of probably now 1 million Palestinian citizens, happening as we speak.

It's not so severe as you make it to sound, because once the operation ends and we have some kind of a cease-fire, then the people will forget the issue. Out of sight, out of mind. — ssu

I don't think this is true, with an eye on the changing geopolitical reality in the Middle-East.

The West can "forget the issue", but the geopolitical shift with Arab nations aligning to BRICS and taking a bigger role cannot simply be ignored. Or rather one may ignore it at their own peril.

And that goes double for Israel, because all of these Arab nations have a bone to pick with Israel over the question of Palestine specifically.

Israel is a small island in a sea of historical and potential enemies, and it is cultivating the seeds of a gigantic disaster within and without its own borders.


I honestly think you don't fully understand what is at stake here.

The only reason Israel still exists is because of its "special relationship" with the United States and basically the promise that the United States will come to Israel's rescue if it were ever in real trouble.

When the United States gets embroiled in intense security competition with China in the Pacific, which is essentially guaranteed to happen at some point in the near future, the United States will no longer be able to make good on that promise.

If Israel sours its relation with the United States significantly, the United States may want to cut off Israel entirely, since Israel right now is clearly the United States' Achilles heel. It can't afford to drop Israel, nor can it afford to get bogged down in the Middle-East trying to protect it. It's clear that America's enemies are leveraging this bind.

Lastly, the true nature of the US-Israel 'special relationship' remains somewhat of a mystery to me. I have never heard a truly satisfactory explanation why the Israel lobby is so powerful in the United States, but my suspicion is that its roots lie in the US financial system.

That financial system is under heavy pressure, and basically headed for a giant crash in the near future as well, further compounding the geopolitical issues I have already laid out.

When that system crashes, it may fundamentally change the US-Israel relation to Israel's detriment.

The West can "forget the issue", but the geopolitical shift with Arab nations aligning to BRICS and taking a bigger role cannot simply be ignored. Or rather one may ignore it at their own peril.

This equates to selling your soul to the Chinese, it may be a prickly relationship.

https://www.ohchr.org/sites/default/files/documents/hrbodies/hrcouncil/sessions-regular/session55/advance-versions/a-hrc-55-73-auv.pdf

"But October 7th!" ... doesn't excuse genocide.

The West can "forget the issue", but the geopolitical shift with Arab nations aligning to BRICS and taking a bigger role cannot simply be ignored. Or rather one may ignore it at their own peril. — Tzeentch

I was referring to the West and especially to the US. To the Middle East, well, it's quite laughable to talk about this being only a temporary setback in the warming of Saudi-Israeli relations.

Yet I think those countries close to the US will simply to have ties both to the US and to the east.

Israel is a small island in a sea of historical and potential enemies, and it is cultivating the seeds of a gigantic disaster within and without its own borders.

I honestly think you don't fully understand what is at stake here.

The only reason Israel still exists is because of its "special relationship" with the United States and basically the promise that the United States will come to Israel's rescue if it were ever in real trouble. — Tzeentch

I think the IDF and it's performance in the earlier wars is the reason, not only the just the assistance from the US. Also Syria and Egypt got quite a lot more assistance from a Superpower earlier than they could actually afford. And Egypt has now also gotten assistance from the US. Not so much as Israel, but still.

And don't forget Israel's nuclear deterrence. And it's conventional deterrence and technological advantage. And also that the Arab states, Iran and Turkey aren't all in friendly relations together and aren't good at coordinating an unified response. Not so long ago Iran attacked the Saudi's through the Houthis. Not long ago Qatar was nearly attacked by it's neighbors. Turkey, Bahrain and Jordan have at least called home their embassador. I think Egypt has not. So the bunch has far more quarrels than the EU has with Hungary. Iran was called to participate in a meeting with the Arab states, but that didn't go much more forward.

At least the situation was discussed last November with the Arab states, Iran and Turkey:


The military balance has not changed and also the US still there to aid Israel. What is changing is the perception in the West dramatically, and the real threat is a pariah status as Apartheid South Africa had.

The next real step would be sanctions, that for the export oriented Israel is very toxic. But only in the long run. And a lot would still have to happen. Just like this discussion shows, there are those who do support Israel and the actions it has taken.

, don't forget the Sunni (85-90% worldwide) versus Shia (Iran, Iraq, Azerbaijan, Bahrain) conflict. Internal to Islam, they're not seeing eye-to-eye, to the point of violence now and then.

Personally, I think the military balance has changed significantly.

The Arab nations are no longer completely clueless when it comes to military matters, and recent history is filled with examples of how to counter the traditional western way of war (even carried out by the Arabs themselves).

In addition, Israel has a tiny population compared to its neighbors, and it would simply crumble under the weight of a long war like the one we see in Ukraine. Not to mention the fact that if it ever were to be under a serious attack, the Palestinian population may rise up against it, which would be an uprising roughly equal to that of Israel's entire Jewish population.

This is bleak to say the least.

The Arab nations are all aligned to the BRICS, which means they have access to military knowledge and resources from capable states like China and Russia, further diminishing any power imbalance.


Yes, Israel possibly has nuclear weapons. The truth is, we don't know, and we don't know how many.

My sense is that a handful of (potentially outdated) nuclear weapons aren't going to change the power balance in a meaningful way, since nuclear use by Israel will likely mean they have to nuke their own territory, which is why they have always referred to it as 'the Samson option'.


There are no good outcomes for Israel is it ever comes to blows with its neighbors.

Hamas will be genocided and the world will be better for it. At this point Israel has no choice but to go into Rafah. Who only puts out 80% of a fire? New polls show that Americans overwhelmingly (79-80%) support Israel over Hamas, who have been shown to rape and sexually abuse their captives. Has that been condemned yet?

Israel are creating Hamas

↪ssu, don't forget the Sunni (85-90% worldwide) versus Shia (Iran, Iraq, Azerbaijan, Bahrain) conflict. Internal to Islam, they're not seeing eye-to-eye, to the point of violence now and then. — jorndoe

Indeed yes. This is basically the Saudi-Iranian conflict that was fought in Yemen, for example. But also in Syria.

The Arab nations are no longer completely clueless when it comes to military matters, and recent history is filled with examples of how to counter the traditional western way of war (even carried out by the Arabs themselves). — Tzeentch

The Arab nations haven't been ever completely clueless when it comes to military matters, actually. But that Israel's neighbors have been poor Third World countries is a fact. And Soviet equipment and tactics weren't up to par with the Israelis (shown by Israeli aircraft winning an air battle against Soviet pilots flying the Soviet equipment during the War of Attrition, see here). Saudi Arabia did actually send couple battalions to Syria and one brigade into Jordan (which wasn't fighting, but still) yet these forces came so late that they didn't see action.

The Lebanon war of 2006 is indeed an example where Hezbollah had obviously improved it's fighting abilities from prior. The ability of lower leaders (and those usually referred as non-commisioned officers)
to take the initiative had been improved. Yet the performance of the Saudi and allied forces in the Yemen war was still poor. Similar equipment used by US forces wasn't used like the US forces, and the Houthis (at first literally fighting in flip flops) showed just how a badly equipped but determined foe could defeat the Saudis. That the Saudi monarchy is more afraid of it's own armed forces themselves making a military coup is shown from the fact that the force is cut into two with the National Guard and the Army and that there isn't any conscription, which would be optional for a country that had less people than Egypt, Iraq or Iran.

Saudi Abrams destroyed by the Houthis in 2018:


Syria is devastated by it's own civil war and is incapable of doing anything about the Israeli strikes in the country. Egypt has it's own potential domestic problems and still wouldn't opt to fight Israel, even if the population is extremely angry about Israel's actions against the Palestinians. And Turkey, well, it doesn't have borders with Israel. Overall what is lacking is the coordination among Arab states and Turkey. And as @jorndoe mentioned, we shouldn't forget the sunni/shia split.

The only sides that actually have anticipated to face off with Israel is Iran and it's creation, Hezbollah. They have tried to encounter Israeli air superiority simply with long range missiles and rockets and have opted not to try to fight a conventional war against it.