I guess he was just blowing smoke

He turned out to be weaker than expected, but so did Putin. Prigozhin is now well positioned for the succession war, whenever that might be.

Prigozhin had best stay away from windows.

Au contraire, his best bet now might be to jump out one.

turned out to be weaker than expected, — Jabberwock

They say he struck some sort of deal with Putin. Moscow was close to defenseless, so Prigozhin appears to be in charge now.

Putin is weakened but what he needed most was time. Now he's got that, I presume he'll try to shore things up and pretend whatever deal he signed never happened.

Putin is weakened but what he needed most was time. Now he's got that, I presume he'll try to shore things up and pretend whatever deal he signed never happened. — Baden

That was some crazy shit, though, right?

On that we fully agree. :grin:

Chechen leader offers to help put down Wagner mutiny
^{— Andrew Osborn · Reuters · Jun 24, 2023}

Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov said on Saturday his forces were ready to help put down a mutiny by Wagner mercenary chief Yevgeny Prigozhin and to use harsh methods if necessary.

Those two should get a room.

Odd how Prigozhin apparently was pissɘd with the army leaders, but went about it by being threatening to lots more. And the 180° turns. (Is the Kremlin dependent on Wagner for the war?) Maybe more will come out.

Yeah, although he faces a tough choice. He needs to empower competent leaders to turn the war around and stop the problems that led to this, but any such competent, ambitious leaders just saw that having just a division or two at their command would be enough to send the leadership fleeing as they grab Moscow.

I mean, the whole reason he propped up a rival second army in the first place was fear of the military moving against his FSB oriented government. If this prompts a move to put someone more capable into control of the MoD, that's its own sort of risk (particularly if they are charismatic, but then good leaders often are charismatic.) It's not hard to see how this might have played out if someone else marched on Moscow with more loyal forces with an army of "veteran heros and citizens," rather than prisoners.

The flip side is that putting someone competent in charge and empowering them could also help Russia win some objectives worth celebrating and also save Putin.

Today has shown that in one thing Putin was more successful than he probably expected - he wanted to have a politically apathetic population and that is exactly what he got... He could be deposed and nobody would bat an eye, no jumping on the tanks for him. I wonder how many people right now are deleting from their social media selfies with Wagnerites...

EDIT: Just as I wrote the above, I saw the videos of crowds in Rostov greeting Prigozhin leaving in his car like a hero... Nothing will be the same.

Nothing will be the same. — Jabberwock

Agreed. We don't know what is going on but so much brinkmanship doesn't fit with the monolithic information control Putin has relied upon up to now.

Today has shown that in one thing Putin was more successful than he probably expected - he wanted to have a politically apathetic population and that is exactly what he got... He could be deposed and nobody would bat an eye, no jumping on the tanks for him.

Well, he's had centuries of help. Serfs, the vast majority of the population, didn't get their freedom until around the time the US ended slavery and they were still paying back the debt of their "purchase" from the nobility in 1917.

The February Revolution was precipitated over riots over living conditions, but the removal of the Tsar was a palace coup. The October Revolution was a small cadre, one that could easily have been overwhelmed if people were willing to fight, getting control essentially with essentially a shrug. The "people," didn't drive to revolts the way the sans-culottes did in France during multiple revolts, the Egyptians in 2011, etc. Not that incredibly vicious struggles didn't start later, but at first it was a big "meh."

---

Surprised the shit out of me. I figured the Rubicon had already been crossed, no going back.

The bulk of Wagner abandoning the effort for amnesty or routing if there was stiff resistance seemed entirely possible, but not a deal.

It would not surprise me if the Wagner commander's assessment of their odds of even breaching the defenses of the hastily assembled, poorly equiped forces in Moscow was that it was unlikely. IDK how many soldiers Wagner still has, how many came on the march, and how many had any stomach for a fight, but it wouldn't surprise me if that number was quite low. Plus they lack any logistics for their heavy equipment.

That said, they absolutely could have held out in Rostov forever, or Moscow if they made it into the city. Russia's PGM shortage and their AA would make bombing impossible without leveling the city and Russia doesn't have the forces to take a million + city in urban fighting anywhere, let alone to spare. I figured he would sit tight in Rostov and hold the threat of ending the war over Putin.

When the column kept moving with limited air strikes I actually started to think maybe he had coordinated with parts of the military to launch the coup, but it seems like their air force is just spent.

Taking Moscow would not mean much if the top run away and he could not actually govern anything (as Napoleon found out). Maybe he believed some administrative figures would join him. But I still think that initially he did not want to challenge Putin, that is why he targeted only Shoigu and Gerasimov. Maybe he thought that if he got more popular support, he could force Putin to grant him more power at the expense of the MoD.

Exactly, I was just assuming he might have allies in the MOD who he knew would jump in if he made it that far and that was part of the decision-making process.

I imagine the whole, "if only the wonderful Tsar knew what the recalcitrant bowyers were doing," schtick around Putin would vanish pretty much instantly if it ever looked like he was about to lose power. It honestly feels like a parody sometimes.

had best stay away from windows. — Banno

The mantra of the spineless putin sycophant

This whole episode was probably a little too odd to be taken at face value.

Cool down dudes, that's obviously a feint. Wagner troops are not enough to conquer the entire Russia, even less Moscow, or 17/4567th of Kamtchatka. These are hard numbers, sorry. Even Mearshaimer said it somehow somewhere somewhen. The rest is trite Crypto-Pluto-Nazi-Sionist-LGBT-Neocapitalist-Imperialist-Amerikan propaganda. The US has lost the war between Ukraine and Russia. But feel free to believe your lies. — neomac

Rebel Russian mercenaries halt advance on Moscow, Kremlin says fighters to face no charges

Oh, the exquisite irony.

Yes and you predicted all that, obviously. But kept silent to better enjoy the exquisite irony right? Now the explanation pls. Everything must be connected to land bridges, right?

Now the role of the Wagner group is really akward. Their usefullness is quite questionable.

Of course it was a feint! A guy openly challenges Putin, Putin calls him a traitor and the guy just walks free. The generals of MoD, also openly challenged, just hide for the whole duration of the supposed coup. Cannot you see how brilliant that is? They just fooled the whole world into seeing them as weak cowards!

I confess to being totally baffled. An unstoppable coup that suddenly stops, a civil war averted without hardly a shot fired - it looks like an elaborate theatre, but for what audience? and with what intention?

What next, pundits?

They just fooled the whole world into seeing them as weak cowards! — Jabberwock

Plans within plans, man. It's like Dune over there.

An unstoppable coup that suddenly stops, a civil war averted without hardly a shot fired - it looks like an elaborate theatre, but for what audience? and with what intention?

What next, pundits? — unenlightened

The coup was stoppable…but likely would have ruined Rostov and weakened Russia internally even more. Putin and his chef avoided that debacle, but this showed the internal weakness of Russia.

Basically now coup plots are possible… when people depicted as traitors can just return to their barracks and the leader can go to a friendly neighbour country.

This is the beginning of the end for Putin, I’d say.

The coup was stoppable…but likely would have ruined Rostov and weakened Russia internally even more. — ssu

I don't see what troops would have attacked Rostov, and I even less see how such an attack would have stopped the tanks rolling into red square and offing Putin.

Military coups do not usually end in a negotiated settlement before any blood is spilt. I can only guess that they are keeping Putin on as a puppet leader for a while, but he is no longer in charge. It certainly looked as though he was caught with his trousers round his ankles and no one to wipe his arse for him.

According to Prigozhin, the events weren't about overthrowing the government, but about changing the Defence Ministry leadership.
Supposing he wanted (or had been part of) a coup, he might have gone about it much the same way though.
A "bull in a china shop"? A "concealed coup"? (plenty room for conspiracy theories here)
Putin "the spy" comes through as significantly more calculating than Prigozhin "the warlord-chef".
Either way, a bunch of consequential things has been said by Prigozhin and Moscow. Wagner allegedly downed three choppers. A fuel depot was blown up to slow down the convoy.
Going to take some bending to make it look favorable for the Kremlin.

Prigozhin: "I'll be back."

I don't see what troops would have attacked Rostov — unenlightened

Wagner troops occupied a HQ in Rostov. Hence if forces would have been deployed against the Wagner forces, the likely place of combat would have been Rostov. Now the Wagnerites withdrew from there (with applauding civilians on the streets).

There already seems to have taken place one brief incident in Voronez before the deal was struck. Hence this was a very close call.

More pro-NATO and pro-Ukraine propaganda by Prigozhin the exquisite feinter.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1672195411598008324

What happens next in your view?

Could there be an inkling of truth in some of what he's describing?

What happens next in your view? — Baden

This is so difficult question not even the wisest could answer given past events that happened so far in regard to Ukraine war.

I think stalemate is inevitable followed by some events to replace Putin peacefully.

I don't believe Ukraine will regain lost territories and all that Putin is likely to do is to maintain current position and exhaust Ukrainians militarily to force them to negotiation table.