The most interesting thing is that a part of that documentary series dives into similar types of personalities who, when digging deep into their funding and things like their host sites, show to be actually paid by Russia to just keep spreading doubt by always arguing against even the clearest and logical reasoning. And how this undermines regular journalists to the point some have been getting death threats as a result of gullible people following these actors. It is not unreasonable to actually argue that a forum like this might very well have such actors. It is not outside the realm of possibility seen as how they operate and how many they actually are.

It is not unreasonable to actually argue that a forum like this might very well have such actors. — Christoffer

If you have accusations to make, make them Sherlock. Otherwise keep this type of low-brow copium to yourself.

If you have accusations to make, make them Sherlock. Otherwise keep this type of low-brow copium to yourself. — Tzeentch

It's just an observation based on facts. These people exist, these people either get other people to believe them by spreading doubt about what is going on, or they are these people spreading doubt. It's part of the disinformation war that Russia is conducting against the West by any means they can do without drawing attention to themselves.

Just look at Russia's latest try at organizing sham protests to keep Ergodan from approving Sweden into Nato.


The people in the images are from protests in Paris and Madrid, but they are working for Russian intelligence. The demonstrations in the background have nothing to do with them or their signs. They're made to provoke Turkey and Ergodan, nothing else. This is part of an investigation done by Dossier Center, SVT, Le Monde, Denmark Radio, Expressen, NRK, Delfi, NDR/WDR, and Süddeutsche Zeitung that has mapped out how Russian intelligence is orchestrating these things around Europe.

One of the key factors for spreaders of disinformation online is the rhetorical tactics they use. If you've seen it in use, it starts to stand out. So, no, I'm not making accusations at all, I'm merely pointing out similarities. And the tragedy that many people fall into this without understanding what they help promoting.

Stop backpedaling.

It is not unreasonable to actually argue that a forum like this might very well have such actors. — Christoffer

Who on this forum do you believe 'might very well be' a Russian actor?

Who on this forum do you believe 'might very well be' a Russian actor? — Tzeentch

Hmm....

Who on this forum do you believe 'might very well be' a Russian actor — Tzeentch

Did you read what I wrote? I’m observing a behavior, a rhetoric similar to these tactics. The problem is, as I pointed out, that what’s observed can be either that or someone falling for those tactics. I’m not gonna point fingers because that unknown factor makes it impossible to know without more info. I’m not gonna do like others do and conjure up theories based on nothing but belief. I just point out that these things are wide spread and the likelihood of a forum like this having either of them is pretty high. Or do you think that this event in the world today isn’t actually appearing on people’s doorstep, in both the real world and online?

[...] the likelihood of a forum like this having either of them is pretty high. — Christoffer

I’m not gonna do like others do and conjure up theories based on nothing but belief. — Christoffer

Yet here you are, conjuring up theories about people on this forum being 'Russian agents', literally using the words 'pretty high likelihood'.

Perhaps worst of all, you lack the spine to own up to your words.

Yet here you are, conjuring up theories about people on this forum being 'Russian agents', literally using the words 'pretty high likelihood'. — Tzeentch

As you can see, again, you are as always unable to understand the difference between a theory that concludes a deduction, and merely pointing towards facts that exist and probability. It’s this inability to understand what is being written that makes you confused. When I point to facts stated by an investigation, first the one about the Russian ship and then about this, facts presented by rigorous investigation and numerous sources (as I mentioned earlier), but you confuse this with a deductively concluded theory. I have never concluded it being Russia, I have never concluded someone in here being a Russian agent, I have only pointed out factual things that points to a likelihood, a probability. So, either you are unable to understand these differences and just imagine some other text that wasn’t written and then goes into confusion, or you are intentionally changing the concept of the text you are arguing against in order to frame it in another way, often in a strawman fashion. But the fact remains that I’m not concluding anything deductively, I’m talking about probability and facts supporting weighting that probability in a certain direction. And this is the foundational difference in how you look at a problem and how I do it. I look at probability when something is lacking something conclusive, and you form a deductive guesswork for a final conclusion based on very little. You change the argument that someone makes and thereby change the details of that argument and its form, I go by what’s actually said, which when you continue to change how you interpret what is written and use that in your premises, simply makes it dishonest.

Perhaps worst of all, you lack the spine to own up to your words. — Tzeentch

I lack the spine to conclude some probability as factual truth and not simply as a probability and thereby being careful not to point in specific ways? If that is what constitutes a spine in your world, then I guess you think you have one since conjecture is your game.

If there are Russian influencers on this forum, then that is a pretty serious thing as it is part of a disinformation strategy for planting doubt. And since that is a serious thing, I’m not gonna be as sloppy as you with pointing fingers.

If there are Russian influencers on this forum — Christoffer

Might be but it'd be virtually impossible to distinguish an effective Russian influencer from a genuine forum member as appearing genuine is what would make them effective. Same would go for the other side, incidentally. So this is probably not going anywhere and can be dropped, I think.

Might be but it'd be virtually impossible to distinguish an effective Russian influencer from a genuine forum member as appearing genuine is what would make them effective. Same would go for the other side, incidentally. So this is probably not going anywhere and can be dropped, I think. — Baden

The key thing was to point to the investigation that continues to show an increasing presence of this online and IRL. So it's not really the same "for the other side" as it's a massive disinformation movement by Russian intelligence. And I said it just as you, no one can be singled out because there's nothing conclusive, even if Tzeentch wants to bait me into pointing fingers. It was also sort of an analogy on how evidence for probability is not the same as conclusions by deduction when there's little to nothing functioning as true premises. The point is, I've pointed to investigations that show a probability of something and how that gets twisted into other things by others in this thread and how this can be either two things, deliberate or by influence through those narratives that are being spread. Where this is going is about disinformation strategies and how important sticking to actual evidence, facts, and probability is rather than conjecture, i.e. what is the most probable, not the most wanted conclusion. This has been my point all along and is something that I think is lacking in this thread based on the recent debates.

Suppose someone offered you $500 for parading whatever crap around for a few hours. More? $5000? (What?) However it was imparted (as if a prank? part of a movie? for real?) and payment arrangement was made. Perhaps some known local broker was involved (shady or not), say, last part of the payment to be given by the broker upon being shown appropriate photos/footage. I'm sure something's arrangeable. Easy money.

Would you?


I'm sure some will revel in some of what these folks have to say. :) In chronological order...

The intoxication of war
^{— Chris Hedges · Salon · May 7, 2023}

Focus on the war, not just the battles
^{— James M Dubik · The Hill · May 8, 2023}

Hedges is an award-winning journalist (US); Dubik is a retired lieutenant general and professor (US). Note, the former article is sort of peripherally about the present war; the latter is directly about the war.

Suppose someone offered you $500 for parading whatever crap around for a few hours. More? $5000? (What?) However it was imparted (as if a prank? part of a movie? for real?) and payment arrangement was made. Perhaps some known local broker was involved (shady or not), say, last part of the payment to be given by the broker upon being shown appropriate photos/footage. I'm sure something's arrangeable. Easy money.

Would you? — jorndoe

Real recruitments of spies happens this way for much more severe actions by the one hired. In the docu series, the journalists actually get footage of a Swedish guy who was in a lot of dept, being recruited by given $3000 in cash envelopes to smuggle autonomous driving tech details out of Volvo where he worked.

I guess when we also have a world in economical turmoil and people get into money problem there’s not that much needed in terms of financial strength to get a lot of people around western nations into seemingly minor actions that doesn’t even have any real crimes attached to them. So while discovered spycraft leads to legal consequences (the Volvo guy has been sentenced, and “diplomat” from Russia is now doing whatever FSB is doing in South Korea), getting normal people into doing things like posing with signs in front of a camera and maintaining a chaotic presence on online forums and social media by spreading doubt and disinformation, is not able to be counteracted in any way but informing of such risks to the public. It’s an effective way to split the Wests support for Ukraine and according to this investigation, it is massive compared to before the invasion. And absolutely important to adress, even if an effective strategy for it is hard to figure out due to no real crimes connected to it.

, I wonder, how many would say yes/no, and at what $amount (and doing what). Then there are those on more regular payrolls. The full range of spreading propaganda is broad, not always effective.


As an aside, The Americans (IMDb, Wikipedia) is one of those spy shows, collecting intelligence, recruiting, exploiting the vulnerable, seduction/sex, "role-playing", blackmail, assassination, ..., cold war, USSR versus USA, ... Not quite what I'd call realistic through and through, but sort of entertaining.

CNN reports on the ground ...

Russian forces lash out indiscriminately as Ukraine increases military pressure on frontline towns
^{— Nick Paton Walsh, Natalie Gallón, Kosta Gak, Peter Rudden, Olga Voitovych · CNN · May 8, 2023}

We saw them, as they leave a trail in the sky. We had to stand near the basement because they launched guided bombs. There’s no particular time of day or place for the strikes. — Dmytro Haydar in Orikhiv

Weird. Maybe they have plenty of spare bombs? Something else is going on? Way back when there was talk of a strategy of clearing large strips of land for easier monitoring, then continuously heavily blasting anything dangerous-looking entering. Doesn't look like that here though. Who knows.

It's probably worth mentioning that Seymour Hersh has been defending his Nord Stream story all over the internet, though has been rarely invited by any major western news networks, nor has his story been reported on by major western news networks. I wonder why.

Here is a somewhat older interview from February, in which Hersh makes pretty much the same objection I did to the use of open source intelligence (OSINT), namely the fact that it is extremely easy to manipulate:

I will tell you the trouble with open source intelligence is the first thing you do in an operation like that is you use open source as a cover. You invent boats that aren't here. You have airplanes that turned off their transponder which means they can't be seen. [...] The guys who know what they're doing, they can turn everything topsie-turvy. They can create boats, signals of boats, that's what you do before a mission like that. [...] The first thing you do is manipulate the on-going intelligence.

He said this in response to a different event, but the objection remains the same.


More recently he went on this interivew, and states outright that he believes the Russian move on Kiev was a military feint - a position that I've defended here for quite a while - in addition to sharing some thoughts about the Ukraine intel leak. (Timestamp 35:05).

A shocker to some perhaps, that such opinions can also be held by people other than Russian agents.

I wonder, how many would say yes/no, and at what $amount (and doing what). Then there are those on more regular payrolls. The full range of spreading propaganda is broad, not always effective. — jorndoe

A common practice is to exploit weaknesses of any kind. If not financial, then any type of threat of exposure towards something bad that the person has done, like love affairs etc. This is why many working in critical areas of a nation's security infrastructure requires background checks on not only the person working but his/her social surrounding.

As an aside, The Americans (IMDb, Wikipedia) is one of those spy shows, collecting intelligence, recruiting, exploiting the vulnerable, seduction/sex, "role-playing", blackmail, assassination, ..., cold war, USSR versus USA, ... Not quite what I'd call realistic through and through, but sort of entertaining. — jorndoe

I think the reality is much duller, a better example would be "Slow Horses", pretty funny, but also closer to the dull reality of counterintelligence.

The most notable case in Sweden that was pretty high up was in Säpo, Säkerhetspolisen, our equivalent of CIA/MI5. Just last year, after 6 years of investigation including feeding them bad intel all these years as well as having civilian players on board fooling them, they were finally charged. These were considered hired agents who had been infiltrating Säpo many years ago and worked their way up. They used gadgets like car keys that had hidden USB memory sticks and received payments from Russia over the years. It was one of the most notable cases ever in Sweden and one of the longest specific investigations and counterintelligence operations to date.

Should we put this to the vote? :)

Suppose someone offered you $500 for parading whatever crap around for a few hours. More? $5000? (What?) However it was imparted (as if a prank? part of a movie? for real?) and payment arrangement was made. Perhaps some known local broker was involved (shady or not), say, last part of the payment to be given by the broker upon being shown appropriate photos/footage. I'm sure something's arrangeable. Easy money.

Would you? — May 8, 2023

Might not be worth it. Who knows how real/honest people would be. I'll just note that I'm confident some would. I.e. some would participate in spreading bullshit/propaganda.

https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/parade-of-sorrows/

"The boss of Russian mercenary group Wagner, Yevgeny Prigozhin, accused a Russian brigade of abandoning its position in front-line Bakhmut, allowing Ukraine to seize territory."
https://www.cnn.com/2023/05/10/europe/prizoghin-bakhmut-russia-ukraine-losses-intl-cmd/index.html

Yep (@ssu), no particular proof. Some evidence, though. — jorndoe

Yes, unlike some who are extremely confident on the culprit. :smirk:

Prigozhin isn't acting like a military leader, but basically a warlord playing the role of a politician getting ready for the internal violent for power.

Analyzing Russia's Massive Failures in War Against Ukraine
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nel-xVJQuV4&ab_channel=TheInfographicsShow

some more "provocations":
https://www.dw.com/en/common-threats-bring-japan-south-korea-closer-together/a-65562167
https://www.dw.com/en/amid-tensions-with-china-philippines-gets-bolder/a-65591689
https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/canada-wants-more-cooperation-with-aukus-allies-advanced-technologies-2023-05-08/

Wagner chief offered to give Russian troop locations to Ukraine, leak says
^{— Shane Harris, Isabelle Khurshudyan, Mary Ilyushina · The Washington Post · May 14, 2023}

Yes of course I can confirm this information, we have nothing to hide from the foreign special services. Budanov and I are still in Africa. — Prigozhin

Wagner head dismisses US paper report that he offered to betray Russian troop positions
^{— Brad Heath, Lincoln Feast, Kevin Liffey, Peter Graff · Reuters · May 14, 2023}

nonsense — Prigozhin

looks like the latest hoax — Peskov

He'd be playing a dangerous game. We'll see if he meets an "untimely" end. :) Teixeira is being prosecuted for stealing and leaking the (original) information; I assume it was that leak. Earlier ...

Ukraine says counterattacks effective near Bakhmut, after Wagner chief accuses Russian brigade of fleeing
^{— Julia Kesaieva, Tim Lister, Olga Voitovych, Vasco Cotovio, Katharina Krebs, Nic Robertson, AnneClaire Stapleton, Josh Pennington · CNN · May 11, 2023}

72nd brigade f***ed up three square kilometers today, on which I had about 500 people killed. Because it was a strategic bridgehead. They just ran the hell out of there.
Instead of fighting, we have intrigues spinning all the time. We have a ministry of intrigue instead of a Ministry of Defense. That’s why we have an army running. — Prigozhin

Noticed the Russia-bellends have kept schtum in this thread as of late. Ukraine appears to be morphing into an Eastern European version of Israel.

Hardly surprising when NATO-bellends target the messenger to avoid the message.

or maybe it's because putin should fuck off already and Russia should become a democratic nation.

A democratic nation like the USA, where the media is uncensored, journalists are protected from imprisonment, elections are beyond reproach, protestors are hailed as heroes and the individual is free to decide what medicine they choose to consume?

I've heard that place is a fiction .

An American asked a Chinaman:
What do you think of our constitution - it's great isn't

The Chinaman responded:
Yes! It is a great document. When do you think it will be implemented?

Where do you live?

In the land down under and you?