Both you and @Tzeentch actually.

then I don't know what statement of mine you are objecting to.
Calling "speculation" statements of mine which start with "My guess is" or "Here is my counterfactual" doesn't sound as an objection. They are speculations. If you want to claim they are implausible where is the argument?

The Freiheit article points to an important dynamic between France and Germany regarding common defense beyond the structure of NATO. The last paragraph:

This wake-up call should serve for Germany to step up efforts to meet at least halfway with French impulses for further defence initiatives. In fact, as a new report of the European Defence Agency just revealed, only 18% of defence investments are jointly run between Member States. Besides the rhetorical agreement, the EU, in particular France and Germany have to mature their relationship in order to seriously and jointly invest in military capabilities instead of losing money and capacity to act through isolated moves. Ideally, Germany considers France in its preparations for its first National Security Strategy.

Such an observation is made in the context of Germany being very vulnerable now because of their past dealings with the Putin regime. It seems like Macron wants to become the sort of pivot Merkel used to be but with less dependency on non-European resources.

Sure that's my point about Macron too. But I don't see much consensus around his views. My impression is that the gap between his dreams of leadership and the reality has deepened over time during this war.

Ukraine war shows Europe too reliant on U.S., Finland PM says ^{(via Yahoo)
— Essi Lehto, Terje Solsvik, Nick Macfie · Reuters · Dec 2, 2022}

Finland’s prime minister acknowledges that «Europe is not strong enough».
^{— Daniel Stewart · News360 · Dec 2, 2022}

Well, there you have it.

The EU is riddled with babbling bureaucracy thumb-twiddling impotence sitting-on-hands — not going to cut it. For that matter, there's a fair amount of EU dislike within the EU already. The EU isn't about defense anyway.

A Russian autocrat isn't going to pay much attention to that, but surely might try to fuel it. And facing an individual European country won't faze them much either. Despots may just grab what they want, and roll over what they don't.

A cohesive European defense, on the other hand, preferably including the UK and Ukraine :wink:, might do it. The resources exist, at least.

Until then, NATO it is. And NATO, apparently, scares Putin.

I see that gap. And maybe it will get bigger. I am not trying to shake pom-poms for him.

On the other hand, he is basing his view on not returning to the previous status quo. He wants to talk about that instead of postponing the topic until after some presently inconceivable terminus. That approach may become useful someday.

They are speculations. If you want to claim they are implausible where is the argument? — neomac

It seems to me that your speculations about Macron dreaming to become Napoleon IV are not empirically testable and serve no purpose that I can see. You might as well speculate that Biden secretly wants to enslave Western Europe, or that Merkel fantacized to become a second Hitler...

He wants to talk about that instead of postponing the topic until after some presently inconceivable terminus. That approach may become useful someday. — Paine

Exactly. A diversity of views within NATO is not a weakness, as long as allies respect and listen to each other while moving forward. NATO must defend democracy, not undermine it.

This being said, I personally appreciate US leadership within NATO, in this particular instance. But it has a lot to do with Biden. Had the pres been Trump, NATO would have been nowhere in sight. The advent of Trump (and Bush before him) is one if the reasons why Europeans don't trust Americans over the long term: the US is on a decline, and as it turns out, their elections are relatively easy to manipulate.

A cohesive European defense, on the other hand, preferably including the UK and Ukraine :wink:, might do it. The resources exist, at least. — jorndoe

There simply isn't the will.

With the US committed to Europe, it won't change.

The only thing that would get Europeans and Europe to truly emphasis on defense would be the total departure of the US from Europe. Only then the Germans and others would wake up from their slumber. Or possibly Finlandization would be an option.

It's just simple geography: the Russians are behind Poland. Not in the eastern parts of Germany having the possibility to run through Europe to the Atlantic in few weeks as during the Cold War.

Russia on the other hand hopes that it can engage European countries individually. Then it would be strong and hence the opposition to European integration.

The only thing that would get Europeans and Europe to truly emphasis on defense would be the total departure of the US from Europe. — ssu

Agreed. It's not unrealistic, with republicans like Trump, it could well happen.

If Macron was intereted in becoming the next Napoleon, he'd be licking the Americans' boots. The Americans roll the nickels in Europe.

Instead, he went against the "unprovoked aggression" narrative - which is utter nonsense - and suggested that maybe 15 years of the Russians saying they perceived NATO expansion as a threat wasn't a "clever ruse" to revive the Russian empire.

I dislike the little wannabe dictator, but at least he's got this right. He probably realizes that his head will be on the chopping block too if he simply let the Americans sacrifice Ukraine and Europe like a pawn, without any form of protest.

I dislike the little wannabe dictator — Tzeentch

Don't let knee-jerk antifrog racism blur your thinking. Macron is easy to dislike, but he is not a wannabe dictator.

It seems to me that your speculations about Macron dreaming to become Napoleon IV are not empirically testable and serve no purpose that I can see. You might as well speculate that Biden secretly wants to enslave Western Europe, or that Merkel fantacized to become a second Hitler — Olivier5

Then, that’s not an objection to what I said, but an objection to a caricature of what I said. Indeed you can not quote the claim you attribute to me. So let me double down on the facts that support my speculation.
Macron’s dreams were stated by himself and promoted by his own initiative already in 2017 [1]
En matière de défense, l’Europe doit se doter d’une force commune d’intervention, d’un budget de défense commun et d’une doctrine commune pour agir. Il convient d’encourager la mise en place au plus vite du Fonds européen de défense, de la coopération structurée permanente et de les compléter par une initiative européenne d’intervention qui permette de mieux intégrer nos forces armées à toutes les étapes.
That his proposal is seen as an attempt to emancipate Europe from NATO [2] is in line with his declared project for European security, his declarations during NATO summits [3] and became manifest to the large public since when he declared NATO brain-dead [4] . That Macron’s initiatives and aspiring leadership is not as appealing as Macron might wish is not only evident by the reaction of the other NATO partners but also acknowledged by French commentators as well as politicians like Arnaud Danjean (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arnaud_Danjean) [5]

Notice, I’m not suggesting some evil intentions on Macron such as pursuing some kind of French imperialism (even though I get why he might be caricatured as a “petit Napoléon” or “petit de Gaulle” and can't discount his pursuit of national strategic interests in Europe and outside), or unreasonable concerns about European strategic autonomy (on the contrary I myself expressed that concern earlier [6]). My point is simply that as the war unfolds Macron’s pushy attitude as a European leader and promoter of European security autonomy is wearing out in support.

[1] https://www.elysee.fr/emmanuel-macron/2017/09/26/initiative-pour-l-europe-discours-d-emmanuel-macron-pour-une-europe-souveraine-unie-democratique

[2]
L’atlantisme est-il un anachronisme ? Le nécessaire débat sur l’avenir de la politique étrangère de la France
https://www.cairn.info/revue-internationale-et-strategique-2017-4-page-16.htm

L’Alliance atlantique selon Emmanuel Macron
https://www.cairn.info/revue-defense-nationale-2021-2-page-95.htm

Une idée incertaine de l’Europe. Comprendre les ambiguïtés stratégiques d’Emmanuel Macron
https://www.cairn.info/revue-les-champs-de-mars-2020-1-page-149.htm

[3]
https://otan.delegfrance.org/Conference-de-presse-du-President-Emmanuel-Macron-a-l-issue-du-sommet-de-l-OTAN
https://www.vie-publique.fr/discours/285669-emmanuel-macron-30062022-otan

[4]
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-france-nato-braindead-idUSKBN1Y21JE

[5]
« Etre un peu plus humble dans notre approche »
Dans cette nouvelle redistribution des cartes, la France se positionne en leader, ce qui n’a rien d’étonnant selon Arnaud Danjean. « Depuis le départ du Royaume-Uni de l’UE, la France objectivement est la principale puissance militaire d’Europe, qui a en plus une gamme complète y compris avec la dissuasion nucléaire, ce qui est tout à fait singulier en Europe. Donc la France est naturellement dans un siège de conducteur pour l’Europe de la défense. » Mais ce spécialiste des questions de défense et sécurité met en garde la France. « Ça nous oblige nous Français, à un grand travail de conviction vis-à-vis de nos partenaires. Et parfois, je trouve que ce travail est fait avec un peu trop d’arrogance. Car on se satisfait d’être dans la position de leader et on a envie d’imposer cela à tout le monde, on pense que c’est une évidence pour tout le monde. Je pense que l’on doit être un peu plus humble dans notre approche. » Un message clairement destiné au président français Emmanuel Macron.
https://www.publicsenat.fr/article/politique/europe-de-la-defense-la-france-fait-preuve-d-un-peu-trop-d-arrogance-estime-arnaud

[6]

Yet what worries me more than nuclear escalation is the vulnerabilities of the Western front which will likely remain (if not deepen) after the war ends: uncertain American future commitment within the Western front (due to domestic unresolved political tensions and impending competition with China more than with Russia), Europe without military and economic security (e.g. Germany is losing at once energy input from Russia and output to China) and its political polarisation between East and West Europe. Add to that the possibility of having an unstable Russian Federation at risk of collapse. — neomac

racism — Olivier5

:rofl:

Macron is easy to dislike, but he is not a wannabe dictator. — Olivier5

He threatened the people of France for exercising their human right to bodily autonomy. "Dictator" is being kind. Absolute scum of the Earth, better? The fiery pit is too good for that man.

On the other hand, he is basing his view on not returning to the previous status quo. He wants to talk about that instead of postponing the topic until after some presently inconceivable terminus. That approach may become useful someday. — Paine

Sure. But his moves do not seem effective in building consensus. To work in that direction I would expect Macron to pursue bilateral accords with other European countries (including eastern European countries), to assure enough convergence with European leaders behind doors before coming out with challenging ideas and see those give him a cold shoulder, and to put France more at the forefront of the European military support for Ukraine (e.g. as relevant if not more relevant than French military involvement in Syria in a war against terrorism). It's unlikely he will meet his strategic goals for Europe if he doesn't address Eastern Europeans' security concerns in a persuasive way (especially if predictable national interests lurk behind his behavior).

This is some intense shit right here

A source for what? Macron threatening the French people?

Here it is: Macron Says He Wants To Piss Off France's Unvaccinated

Could've been a quote from Germany in the '30s.


If you want a discussion, discuss. Stop with this passive aggressive nonsense.


Also, where do you get the idea I live in Eindhoven? It's actually a bit creepy that you're trying to guess (or trying to find actual information) about where I live. Sounds like something a hacker kid in their mother's basement would do. :chin:

Could've been a quote from Germany in the '30s. — Tzeentch

Really?! Macron's quote is extrapolated from an interview where the interlocutor reports that 85% of patients in reanimation were non-vaccinated and that their cases were saturating intensive care units to the point that many operations were deprogrammed. Can you pls quote politicians from Germany in the '30s enraged with non-vaccinated people because of the saturation of intensive care units by willingly non-vaccinated people?
In any case, what certainly couldn't be from Germany in the '30s was the free public polemic reactions of political opposition, media and civil society against Macron's controversial wording choice [1]

Right?

[1]

"Dictator" is being kind. — Tzeentch

"Cretin" is being kind.

Notice, I’m not suggesting some evil intentions on Macron such as pursuing some kind of French imperialism (even though I get why he might be caricatured as a “petit Napoléon” or “petit de Gaulle” and can't discount his pursuit of national strategic interests in Europe and outside), or unreasonable concerns about European strategic autonomy (on the contrary I myself expressed that concern earlier [6]). My point is simply that as the war unfolds Macron’s pushy attitude as a European leader and promoter of European security autonomy is wearing out in support. — neomac

It's just a different modus operandi, which integrates provocation as a means to challenge the status quo. Macron accepts that he needs to ruffle a few feathers in order to get his message across, that nobody listens to Mr Nice Guy. So he regularly says things he 'shouldn't say', and all the commentators then ask "How come he dares to say this?" But I personally think he is right to speak (somewhat) freely and not to be too obsessed about optics. Of course he is still a politician, and still cares about optics, but he is not slave to them.

A true leader is not someone who tells you what you want to hear, but what you need to hear. E.g. on the anti-vacc, he told them what they needed to be told: that their behavior is ultimately antisocial.

In this modus operandi of Macron, it's not his problem if others are annoyed at him; it's their problem. They are only annoyed because somehow, somewhere, he is right; they know it and he knows it. So the annoyance generated is just a proof that the message has been heard.

I note that Mario Draghi said things along similar lines when he was Italian Prime Minister, about the need to make peace with Russia, ultimately. But he said them nicely and softly, and hence no one paid any attention.

Russian nationals fighting for Ukraine vow to resist Moscow’s forces ‘until the end’
https://edition.cnn.com/2022/12/05/europe/russians-fighting-for-ukraine-intl-cmd/index.html

In this modus operandi of Macron, it's not his problem if others are annoyed at him; it's their problem. They are only annoyed because somehow, somewhere, he is right; they know it and he knows it. So the annoyance generated is just a proof that the message has been heard. — Olivier5

I deeply disagree with that too. Even if “somehow, somewhere, he is right”, as Gérard Araud (ex-diplomatic adviser to Emmanuel Macron) twitted: En politique étrangère, on ne dit jamais publiquement tout ce qu’on pense. Avoir raison ne suffit pas. Il faut aussi le dire au bon moment sinon on risque d’atteindre le résultat opposé au recherché. Je dis ça à tout hasard… Soupir (https://twitter.com/GerardAraud/status/1599692520794968064). Publicly framing the peace issue in line with Putin’s anti-NATO narrative was a questionable rhetoric move because this time he’s not “emmerding” the bad citizens for the sake of the good citizens, but “emmerding” his allies for the sake of the enemy, an enemy who is eagerly looking for exploitable devisions among Westerners.
Besides if Macron doesn’t manage to build a consensus among European partners around his idea of a European Security system which is other than just more NATO, then he’s going to fail his declared objective. So it’s his problem too.

I note that Mario Draghi said things along similar lines when he was Italian Prime Minister, about the need to make peace with Russia, ultimately. But he said them nicely and softly, and hence no one paid any attention. — Olivier5

Anybody can talk peace with Russia, even Zelensky. The problem is on what grounds. In any case, Mario Draghi never talked about security guarantees for Russia as far as I know. Yet he did talk about security guarantees for Ukraine: https://www.president.gov.ua/en/news/prezident-ukrayini-proviv-telefonnu-rozmovu-z-golovoyu-radi-78129
And support for enlarging NATO: https://www.euronews.com/2022/05/19/us-ukraine-crisis-nato-italy-finland

Volodymyr Zelensky named TIME's Person of the Year 2022

2022 was year the horror of war returned to Europe (minor warning: graphic)
^{— Jill Lawless · AP News · Dec 8, 2022}

He threatened the people of France for exercising their human right to bodily autonomy. "Dictator" is being kind. Absolute scum of the Earth, better? The fiery pit is too good for that man. — Tzeentch

Surely you jest.

No.

Lies and Vladimir Putin's political culture: "Intelligence Matters"
^{— Michael Morell, Andrew Weiss, Paulina Smolinski · CBS News · Dec 7, 2022}

Well, the (sociopathic) opportunism über alles is something Putin shares with der Führer.

Russia's Putin Vows More Strikes On Ukraine Energy Infrastructure
^{— Via NDTV · Dec 8, 2022}

I guess the Ukrainians aren't really allowed to try throwing the invaders out? Such goes Putin's rhetorical move. Not the best excuse. Destruction continues.

Slovakia compares negotiating peace with Russia to the dialogues with Hitler that led to WWII
^{— Daniel Stewart · News360 · Dec 8, 2022}

, Macron is "Absolute scum", belonging in "The fiery pit"? :D I guess, by your take, humans best go extinct, or at least be markedly decimated. Not quite a realistic outlook. Or maybe just another hyperbole.

I guess, by your take, humans best go extinct, or at least be markedly decimated. — jorndoe

By Covid? Get with the times, buddy. That hysteria ended last year already.

Of course, that didn't stop closet tyrants like Macron from blatantly threatening people for exercising a human right.

I'll stop derailing the thread now.

By Covid? — Tzeentch

By "The fiery pit" (and whatever else you have in store for people).

this time he’s not “emmerding” the bad citizens for the sake of the good citizens, but “emmerding” his allies for the sake of the enemy — neomac

He's emmerding his allies by reminding them that they will need to make peace with their enemy, that however giddy they are about emmerding the Russians, ultimately they will need to make peace with Russia, so they might as well start a conversation about how this might happen.

I agree with you that his provocative communication technique is often counterproductive, at least initially. It generates controversies and yes, annoyance. But as I said, that's the way he communicates, and it is often effective in a strange, disruptive way. Note the similarities with Trump's style, who basically got (almost) elected by saying all the wrong things.

if Macron doesn’t manage to build a consensus among European partners around his idea of a European Security system which is other than just more NATO, then he’s going to fail his declared objective. So it’s his problem too. — neomac

Yes, that's true and I also agree with your comment about arrogance being counter productive, but I agree with @ssu that such a project has zero chance of working anyway, as long as NATO functions reasonably well. It can only work as an alternative to NATO, and such an alternative will only be considered if Europe has very very good reasons to mistrust the US. Eg if Trump comes back to the White House and aligns his foreign policy with Putin's, or something similar.

He's emmerding his allies by reminding them that they will need to make peace with their enemy, that however giddy they are about emmerding the Russians, ultimately they will need to make peace with Russia, so they might as well start a conversation about how this might happen. — Olivier5

The focus is not making peace with Russia but under what conditions. Macron is expressly making a point about anti-NATO security guarantees for Russia.
Besides his analogy with the eventual concession of Alsace-Lorraine region by France to Germany (in that interview) is muddling his point about international law and respect of territorial integrity in the case of Crimea.
Always in that interview Macron was also referring to another critical issue: the recent unfair/protectionist American policies (maybe deniable by the US but not implausible) which may compromise the European re-industrialization program.
So he made himself vulnerable to criticisms from every side: Ukrainians, Americans, Eastern Europeans. And he weakened both his arguments at once by triggering a predictable polemic over the question of security guarantees for Russia which in turn shadowed the merits of the other argument against the American anti-EU policies.

But as I said, that's the way he communicates. It is often effective in a strange, unconventional way. — Olivier5

I also agree with your comment about arrogance being counter productive — Olivier5

I don’t know what evidences you have that his communication style is effective in international affairs, but that interview on very critical subjects is hardly evidence of that.

I agree with ssu that such a project has zero chance of working anyway, as long as NATO functions reasonably well. It can only work as an alternative to NATO, and such an alternative will only be considered if Europe has very very good reasons to mistrust the US. — Olivier5

If there is zero chance of working, what’s the point of invoking an "obvious" discussion about anti-NATO security guarantees for Russia? What's the point of remarking the "effective in a strange, disruptive way" of his communication style? Macron’s proposals would just look as wishful thinking. Besides working on an alternative to NATO when we have “very very good reasons to mistrust the US” might be already too late. I guess many European politicians can understand and share Macron’s concerns but he’s committing such alienating missteps in an already unfavorable European political and economic environment that his leadership is unfortunately easy to question.