Cognitive bias: tool for critical thinking or ego trap?

Skalidris

What I would like to know is how and why people think it can help with critical thinking.

I'll explain why I think it's an ego trap with an example of the survivorship bias:
If we ask a lottery winner to talk to a group of people about how amazing his life has become, that group will be more likely to buy lottery tickets then a second group of people who would have listened to the story of a homeless man who lost all his money on lottery tickets. My guess is, if we tell people who bought tickets from the first group that they were biased, they might just say “oh but even if the chance is low, it’s still there, maybe it’s my lucky day”. So in the end, even given that info, I still think the first group would have more buyers than the second one. It could even be worse, they could fool themselves into thinking they’re critical: “I’m aware there is the survivorship bias, I’m aware the chance of winning is low but I’m rationally deciding to buy a ticket because I’m willing to risk losing small amounts of money to win big”. Is it really rational though? They’re mostly driven by the emotions that were triggered by the story of the winner…

How can we ever be sure that the decision we’re making isn’t biased? Biases are unconscious…
I see a lot of people using cognitive bias as some kind of superiority: “I know about cognitive bias and I try to avoid it, and you don’t, so I’m closer to the truth than you are”… And this is exactly the kind of behaviour that kills critical thinking… Or people who use it to take down someone’s defense: “you’re saying that because you’re biased, therefore it doesn’t have any value”…

Jackson

↪Skalidris

I find the whole idea of cognitive bias unconvincing. Even if it is true, so what?

Gnomon

How can we everbe sure that the decision we’re making isn’t biased? Biases are unconscious… — Skalidris

Cognitive bias is a philosophical theory to explain why supposedly rational people make errors in judgment. But, in practice, those with different opinions can accuse the other of bias, and without divine objectivity, no one can prove who's right and who's wrong. I suppose the frustration of a no-win "Mexican Standoff" of opposing opinions is what prompts some people to claim divine revelation, to break the logjam.

Yet, some people are more biased to accept the word of God, than others. In that case, only pseudo-objective "critical thinking", which examines your own motivations & tendencies, can occasionally discover a tipping-point of truth in a difficult dilemma. Unfortunately, if only one party in an ego contest is willing to back down, the win-lose result may not mean that Truth prevails. :smile:

Agent Smith

divine objectivity — Gnomon

No wonder!

Brains are survival machines, not truth machines!

Jackson

Brains are survival machines, not truth machines! — Agent Smith

Then why does the brain think about more than survival?

Agent Smith

Then why does the brain think about more than survival? — Jackson

Malfunction or...

Jackson

Malfunction!? — Agent Smith

ok

Agent Smith

ok — Jackson

Well, I'm not ok with it!

The double-edged truth.

Skalidris

Brains are survival machines, not truth machines! — Agent Smith

More objective truth helps with survival though...

Yet, some people are more biased to accept the word of God, than others. — Gnomon

I didn't get that...

Joshs

↪Jackson

Skalidris

I find the whole idea of cognitive bias unconvincing — Jackson

I agree with you here.

Joshs

↪Skalidris

How can we ever be sure that the decision we’re making isn’t biased? Biases are unconscious… — Skalidris

I am not an advocate of the cognitive bias framework. Each of us interpret the world via value schemes which differ from person to person. In order to manipulate, shape, influence another’s thinking it is necessary to connect with their interpretive framework, from their own perspective. So what is called ‘bias’ is actually the necessary sense-making framework we bring to bear on expereince. Eliminate this ‘bias’ and the world disappears. ‘Objective’ truth is just a certain kind of bias.

Angelo Cannata

I know about cognitive bias and I try to avoid it, and you don’t, so I’m closer to the truth than you are — Skalidris

I think there is a mistake exactly in the text I quoted. In your hypothetical example, the talking person is considering the relativity they are immersed in ("I know about cognitive bias"), but then they reason in way that ignores the relativity they are immersed in ("’m closer to the truth than you are"), because they make an absolute statement. This is inconsistent. The correct conclusion of the relativistic premise is "so I hope I am closer to the truth than you are" or "so I might be closer to the truth than you are". This is the reasoning that I adopt in my relativistic choices: may be my choices are nothing, but may be they are something, beyond my and your understanding: who knows?

Pantagruel

Cognitive biases are quantitatively measurable. And, in some cases, awareness of the cognitive bias is sufficient to mitigate it. Consider the law of small numbers bias. If you are aware of the tendency to make judgements based on unreasonably small sample sizes, then you can suspend judgment pending more data. I believe as a rule that understanding a cognitive bias facilitates mitigation.

Skalidris

Consider the law of small numbers bias. If you are aware of the tendency to make judgements based on unreasonably small sample sizes, then you can suspend judgment pending more data — Pantagruel

That works for experiments, not personal opinions... You could have a lot of well-grounded reasons to believe in something, even though there aren't direct experiments about it, or even though you've only observed it in some people for example. It's not necessarily a bias to have an opinion based on a small number of cases. But to go back to the survivorship bias, in the example I gave, realising there is a bias doesn't really help you make a "less emotional" decision, it leads to confusion. Regarding knowledge, it's going to be the same thing, every time there is room for a grey area, your feelings might make you see it completely white (or black), and I don't see how the cognitive bias theory could help you.

Wouldn't it be much more efficient to think in terms of feelings? At least you can consciously realise how you're feeling, and know that it might influence your opinion. It gets even better as you can think about the same thing once you've calmed down and see if your opinion is the same. At least it's falsifiable as you don't feel the same things all the time, unlike cognitive biases that have no way of being detected consciously.

Cognitive biases are quantitatively measurable — Pantagruel

I would very much like to see your sources for that info.

Pantagruel

It's not necessarily a bias to have an opinion based on a small number of cases. — Skalidris

It is a bias based on the fallacy of small numbers, by definition. It's a cognitive bias, so called, because it is a bias that is exhibited by a lot of people.

Many of these biases have been tested in experimental conditions, as you say. I have read lots of good cognitive science on them. It's common.

Skalidris

Many of these biases have been tested in experimental conditions, — Pantagruel

That doesn't mean that it's measurable quantitatively...

Pantagruel

Many of these biases have been tested in experimental conditions,
— Pantagruel

That doesn't mean that it's measurable quantitatively... — Skalidris

Experimentation requires quantifiable results. Statistical are quantitative.

Bylaw

Brains are survival machines, not truth machines! — Agent Smith

Survival would seem to require a lot of truth. And since what made brains survive or really the creatures that have them was very complicated. All the social stuff, for example, we social mammals have. Brains weren't made to do anything.

Gnomon

Yet, some people are more biased to accept the word of God, than others. — Gnomon
I didn't get that... — Skalidris

You must not live in the Bible Belt. The particular prejudice I referred to is not innate, but cultural --- specifically religious indoctrination. :smile:

PS___I just read a tribute to soicio-biologist E. O. Wilson. In his 2016 book, Half Earth, he said : "What is man? Storyteller, mythmaker, and destroyer of the living world. Thinking with a gabble of reason, emotion, and religion . . ."

Banno

Another weird thread that starts with a slightly off OP and gets worse as it proceeds.

Cognitive bias is not one thing. See List of Common Cognitive Biases

The example in the OP is not an instance of cognitive bias.

Cognitive bias is a term from psychology, not philosophy, for a group of demonstrated systematic errors. See What Is Cognitive Bias? (

↪Gnomon

)

We can adjust for Cognitive bias by being aware of them, giving consideration to what justifies our beliefs and by subjecting our beliefs to public critique.

I find the whole idea of cognitive bias unconvincing. Even if it is true, so what? — Jackson

,

↪Joshs

Then you are doomed to indulge in cognitive bias. You are denying accepted psychology. Hence

I believe as a rule that understanding a cognitive bias facilitates mitigation. — Pantagruel

jgill

I find the whole idea of cognitive bias unconvincing. Even if it is true, so what? — Jackson

On the other hand, confirmation bias distorts news all the time and is a threat to democracy.

Pantagruel

↪Banno

:up:

Banno

↪jgill

...and is the mainstay of detective and police shows everywhere. They decide who did it and then look for the evidence. Agatha Christy is especially guilty.

Gnomon

Cognitive bias is a term from psychology, not philosophy, for a group of demonstrated systematic errors. See What Is Cognitive Bias? (↪Gnomon
) — Banno

I know. But the basic idea of Cognitive Bias goes back to Socrates & Plato. It seems to be the fundamental problem in Philosophy : the root of erroneous reasoning. :smile:

A case from Plato's Meno offers an intriguing example that cuts across some of the modern categories of cognitive biases.
https://aeon.co/essays/what-plato-knew-about-behavioural-economics-a-lot

Joshs

↪Banno

I find the whole idea of cognitive bias unconvincing. Even if it is true, so what?
— Jackson
, ↪Joshs

Then you are doomed to indulge in cognitive bias. You are denying accepted psychology. — Banno

Not every school of psychology considers the objectivizing approach implied by cognitive bias as “accepted”. There are approaches which are troubled by the assumption that discerning such things as bias is a matter of passing judgments on easily discernible facts. This fails to acknowledge the deeply normative character of supposedly neutral and ‘objective’ descriptions of cognitive bias. The vantage from which empirical psychology determines a behavior to be biased is itself an unacknowledged normative bias.

Agent Smith

↪Bylaw

:up:

Agent Smith

More objective truth helps with survival though... — Skalidris

Bang on!

Bylaw

Not every school of psychology considers the objectivizing approach implied by cognitive bias as “accepted”. There are approaches which are troubled by the assumption that discerning such things as bias is a matter of passing judgments on easily discernible facts. This fails to acknowledge the deeply normative character of supposedly neutral and ‘objective’ descriptions of cognitive bias. The vantage from which empirical psychology determines a behavior to be biased is itself an unacknowledged normative bias. — Joshs

It sounds like you are arguing that there is a cognitive bias in the research that has concluded there is cognitive bias. If humans who are trying to be objective and have systematic protocols still manage to have a cognitive bias, don't you think this supports the idea in general that many people have a cognitive bias? Further do you really doubt that people adjust their memories to avoid certain feelings and conclusions (about themselves and others)? Sure, objective research can have hidden biases and specific conclusions about cognitive bias may be faulty, but I encounter cognitive bias in myself and others all the time. What gets noticed and what doesn't depending on group identity or ego self-protection. If cognitive bias was a crime, there is clear motive and access.

Banno

↪Joshs

Not every school of psychology considers the objectivizing approach implied by cognitive bias as “accepted”. — Joshs

Indeed, there are some non-scientific psychological theories out there.

Agent Smith

Are all cognitive biases pessimistic/optimistic/neither/both?

Dunning-Kruger effect: Sacrifices knowledge for confidence!

False positive error: Sacrifices truth for safety!

Aesthetic argument*: Sacrifices truth for beauty.

:chin:

Skalidris

Experimentation requires quantifiable results. Statistical are quantitative. — Pantagruel

Just because we use numbers for interpretations doesn't mean the phenomenon is quantitatively measurable...

Another weird thread that starts with a slightly off OP and gets worse as it proceeds. — Banno

Um... I'm going to ignore that, I don't want to start a war. I only meant to share my thoughts and understand a concept that's trendy nowadays.

Cognitive bias is not one thing — Banno

Yeah okay, use the plural if you prefer that, it's a concept that has a lot of subcategories.

The example in the OP is not an instance of cognitive bias. — Banno

How is it not the survivorship bias?

We can adjust for Cognitive bias by being aware of them, giving consideration to what justifies our beliefs and by subjecting our beliefs to public critique. — Banno

How can you be aware of something that's unconscious?

You are denying accepted psychology. — Banno

Heresy, burn him! No one shall go against the opinion of the great masters of psychology.

confirmation bias distorts news all the time and is a threat to democracy. — jgill

. . .

This has gone terribly wrong, I wanted to argue about HOW and WHY people think it helps with critical thinking and no defenders of that theory actually explained it... Can anyone tell me how you can detect something that's unconscious? Doesn't this cognitive bias theory has the same problem as psychoanalysis, that's it's not falsifiable?

Cognitive bias: tool for critical thinking or ego trap?

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