as a result of the US trying to project power into areas it doesn't even have realistic interests — Benkei

And what geopolitical alternative would you prefer? We Americans are not happy with the mushrooming war memorials in our cities either.

Putin's also demonstrating promises from NATO are meaningless. — Benkei

Scary times coming for the Baltic republics, especially after full sanctions are imposed on Russia by the West, because the rat will now finally be cornered.

The elite won't be affected — Benkei

We don't know that yet, a total isolation of their economic mobility by locking in their money might not do much in the short run.

What's more troubling is that most expert researchers analyzing the actions of Putin have stated that Putin is indirectly threatening anyone involving themselves in Ukraine with nuclear weapons.

I see a lot of amateur analysts on this forum who seem to not really understand both Putin and his actions. Lots of "no worries" comments. But as I've said many times now, this is fucking serious. We have a lunatic who indirectly nods towards nuclear weapons within a situation of an offensive war. I don't think people really understand the severity of the situation outside of what is actively going on in Ukraine.

Putin's actions are of one of a delusional lunatic. He's up there with Stalin, Hitler and the rest. I'm deadly serious in that he needs to go. He needs to be put down. There's no diplomacy that works with him and he is a serious threat to world peace. Either Russia gets fed up with his rule and do it or some other operation, but this is the beginning of his fall, Putin has now finally shown his true colors and people might be able to wake up from any kind of "ideal" of who Putin was.

Putin's also demonstrating promises from NATO are meaningless. — Benkei

NATO won't defend Ukraine because Ukraine isn't part of NATO. Since they're a defensive alliance, if Putin ever becomes even more delusional and attacks a NATO nation, then we're in WWIII. In that scenario, if Putin is serious with his indirect nuclear threat, it might mean actual nuclear attacks. If he sends nukes anywhere it will be the end of Russia, literally, it will be nuked into oblivion by the west.

NATO won't defend Ukraine because Ukraine isn't part of NATO. — Christoffer

I comprehend, but don't you think that's quite unfair to Ukrainian citizens and sovereignty?
When a country does not respect other territories, the rest should act or try something. Doesn't matter if they are part of NATO or not

I comprehend, but don't you think that's quite unfair to Ukrainian citizens and sovereignty?
When a country does not respect other territories, the rest should act or try something. Doesn't matter if they are part of NATO or not — javi2541997

The problem is that there's a mentally challenged lunatic called Putin who is indirectly threatening with nuclear weapons. That is such an unstable factor which means that no one can predict his actions if any non-Ukraine boots get within Ukraine borders to help them. He can very well use nukes against those who try and help Ukraine, no one really knows, but the reality is that this uncertainty is real and that is why no one can help Ukraine. If he acts against any NATO member, that would change the game, then it doesn't matter if there's uncertainty and we will have a full scale world war, probably with nukes.

a full scale world war, probably with nukes. — Christoffer

That would be very crazy. Really, I don't understand what is going on with Putin's mind and Russia interests. Like why the hell they are so motivated to literally make a WW again.
When you live in an European country you feel worried because (despite the fact Ukraine is not a NATO member neither a EU) you feel our countries would do "something" because you are so close towards them.
I feel amazed they are ready to press the Nuke bottom without awareness. Crazy leaders

That would be very crazy. Really, I don't understand what is going on with Putin's mind and Russia interests. — javi2541997

Because Putin is a lunatic. He's essentially a dictator. If you ask "why" it's the same "why" you would ask about Stalin and Hitler.

For us in Europe, especially Sweden, we have a real risk of invasion of our island Gotland since it's a strategic military point to govern the entire Baltic sea. So it is quite possible that the process to join NATO is fast and it will include Sweden and Finland. Because if Russia invades nations that aren't members of NATO in order to expand the Russian empire, it's the only way to defend against them.

I'm just hoping that Putin does some act that makes politicians confident in taking him out as an only way out. I think the Russian people would support such an act. Putin is pretty lonely, even the elites under his rule seem to act with criticism against his actions.

The problem is that there's a mentally challenged lunatic called Putin who is indirectly threatening with nuclear weapons. — Christoffer

Which he possibly can use.

In the Stalinist rhetoric to ESCALATE TO DE-ESCALATE the war. Russia’s military doctrine dictates the use of nuclear weapons in response to any non-nuclear assault on Russian territory.

The doctrine goes like this: make a conventional attack, try destroying the enemy and reaching your military objectives by conventional means. Once that starts not to have the desired effect and your attack stalls, use tactical nuclear weapons to bully the opponent into a favorable terms for you and you obtain those objectives you wanted.

See Escalate To De-Escalate: Russia’s Nuclear Deterrence Strategy

See Russia’s Crazy Nuclear War Strategy: Escalation...to De-escalate?

This is something the Russia HAS TRAINED IN MILITARY Exercises. First a conventional war, then use of nuclear weapons in the end. For de-escalation.

Because WE KNOW from Fukushima, a nuclear accident that didn't kill anyone (as when the Tōhoku earthquake and tsunami killed nearly 20 000) the World just remembers Fukushima.

One low yield tactical nuke will do it. The world will go crazy to demand the immediate cessation of hostilities. People will forget the Ukraine doesn't have nuclear weapons. They will easily be lured into thinking that all-out nuclear war is imminent between the US and Russia. And Putin will show how STRONG he is. People like Trump will continue to admire him.

Now it's time for the conventional cruise missiles, the MLRS attacks and attacks from everywhere even from Belarus.

It pays to remember just how many WMDs were found in Iraq and what the intelligence community thought it knew and how that was spun by politicians and Powell in particular.

Edit: let me translate that "anybody who believes the US and UK narrative is an idiot". — Benkei

That was a week ago @Benkei. You still think so?

(At least I admitted I got Covid wrong at start, thanks to you and others, I changed my mind. It was a pandemic, not media hype.)

And just when we think things are bad enough, look to China and Taiwan Crisis for more of the same.
Somewhere in this fascinating 15min Ch4News video, a chilling Matt Frei interview.
https://www.channel4.com/news/ukraine-crisis-is-putins-russia-starting-a-global-confrontation

A growing conflict - another thread?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-59900139

Tell me what is the common denominator...?

For us in Europe, especially Sweden, we have a real risk of invasion of our island Gotland since it's a strategic military point to govern the entire Baltic sea. So it is quite possible that the process to join NATO is fast and it will include Sweden and Finland — Christoffer

Yeah I think exactly the same. This conflict and issue would make the European nations to regroup and stay together, reinforcing the treaties and cooperation. EU has to take of it and not lead anyone to make a gap among the members and alliances.

Putin is pretty lonely, even the elites under his rule seem to act with criticism against his actions. — Christoffer

Yes, he is so lonely but at the same time he doesn't care at all. Remember when he poisoned all his rivals back in the past? Lunatic and dictator

Yes, he is so lonely but at the same time he doesn't care at all. Remember when he poisoned all his rivals back in the past? Lunatic and dictator — javi2541997

Yes, his loneliness is actually a thing that could end up being a catalyst for his aggressions. The more alone he feels the higher the risk of just "going out with a bang".

This is why he needs to be killed. Seriously, before things escalate, he needs to be put down. Because he is the one figure who's initiating all of this, he is the enemy, even to his own people. If the sanctions really tank their economy, the people of Russia might even publically hang him. No one wants this except Putin.

For us in Europe, especially Sweden, we have a real risk of invasion of our island Gotland since it's a strategic military point to govern the entire Baltic sea. So it is quite possible that the process to join NATO is fast and it will include Sweden and Finland — Christoffer

Yeah I think exactly the same. This conflict and issue would make the European nations to regroup and stay together, reinforcing the treaties and cooperation. EU has to take of it and not lead anyone to make a gap among the members and alliances. — javi2541997

And that's the big question for us. Hopefully both Sweden and Finland can decide together if to join NATO. Not to make a move behind the other one's back, as the two countries have talked about military cooperation for so long now. Or the EU gets it act up (which it won't, but anyway)

And Putin has promised a swift and tough measures if Finland applies to NATO. Of course, it see both Sweden and Finland already as allies of NATO, that's for sure. The B-52s flying over Sweden in exercises just days ago makes this obvious.

Of course we can insist that a) this doesn't matter to us, b) we have good relations with Russia and c) joining NATO isn't current for us.

In other words, we just finlandize us again. Which obviously is what Putin really wants us to do.

Hopefully both Sweden and Finland can decide together if to join NATO. — ssu

I'm all for it, it's impossible to reason with the crazy fucker in Russia so we need to be in that alliance. Putin is too irrational and erratic to be trusted with keeping peace with non-NATO nations. I wouldn't be surprised if they attack Gotland and Finland sometime. Hopefully Putin gets a bullet before that.

More like Russian Empire nostalgia, I think. — jamalrob

That's a good point.

I think Putin said something like "if you feel no nostalgia for the Soviet Union, you have no heart, but if you want to bring it back, you have no brain".

People like to talk about Putin allegedly wanting to "bring the USSR back". But this is only because they are stuck in the Cold War era and view the world in terms of outdated and moth-eaten stereotypes (no doubt reinforced by Western propaganda).

The reality is that Putin isn't stupid and there can be no question of him bringing back the old Soviet Union. But he clearly intends to restore some of the Russian Empire, which I believe he is perfectly entitled to do. Restoring Russia's past glory may have some drawbacks (depending on how this is achieved), but it also has positive aspects. For example, it can be a counterweight to other powers like America, Turkey, China, and other vultures circling the skies with an eye on easy pickings.

But, ultimately, the problem stems from the destruction of Germany as Europe's principal continental power which for centuries had kept Russia in check. This leaves a power vacuum right in the center of Europe that America and other non-European powers (including Turkey) are seeking to fill. Hence the total mess Europe is in.

IMO all the talk of Europe becoming "more united" in the face of Russian aggression is nonsense, as it obviously is an artificial and temporary unity that cannot possibly last as long as Europe is dominated by powers on its outskirts, like France and Britain, or non-European powers, like America.

. I wouldn't be surprised if they attack Gotland and Finland sometime. Hopefully Putin gets a bullet before that. — Christoffer

The US government says he doesn't have the ability to occupy Ukraine. It's a logistics problem.

He can attack and make changes, leave a Russian military presence, but that's it.

Putin isn't going to take over Europe.

Åland Island are even demilitarized, so it's an easy picking for Putin, if that would happen. The border guards over there aren't much of a match and Russian helicopters have the range to fly there.

Now as tough sanctions (as EU members) and counter-sanctions from Russia will already happen, it does beg the question of what is the point? It dawned to me before the corona epidemic when sitting in the soldiers home in the local military garrison with fellow reservists and Finnish career officers and watched young British soldiers eating pizza. We are just fooling ourselves here with the non-aligned thing. Or simply giving this fig-leaf to Putin not to act.

But he clearly intends to restore some of the Russian Empire, which I believe he is perfectly entitled to do. — Apollodorus

At least as a troll, you are honestly open with your views. And people can make up their minds about your ideas.

IMO all the talk of Europe becoming "more united" in the face of Russian aggression is nonsense, as it obviously is an artificial and temporary unity that cannot possibly last as long as Europe is dominated by powers on its outskirts, like France and Britain — Apollodorus

Funny delusions again. Thanks to Putin, old NATO is back again. The Russian are feared and despised, The Ukrainians are fucked, and NATO is united. Yeah, great moves from Putin!

(notice that this interview was before the Russian invasion)


The real question is if that enthusiasm that was for the annexation Crimea holds now in Russia.

The US government says he doesn't have the ability to occupy Ukraine. It's a logistics problem.

He can attack and make changes, leave a Russian military presence, but that's it. — frank

As he has stated, his objective is to destroy the Ukrainian military.

The US government says he doesn't have the ability to occupy Ukraine. It's a logistics problem.

He can attack and make changes, leave a Russian military presence, but that's it.

Putin isn't going to take over Europe. — frank

No, in the long term he won't be able to occupy Ukraine and even if he's doing so, the Ukraine people's morale is to fight for survival, while the Russian army fights for whatever Vodka they can get. So when the military settles down and try to occupy, they will be met by guerilla attacks and constant pressure from smaller Ukrainian groups until the war and occupation become so unpopular that they leave regardless of orders from Putin.

The problem for Putin and Russia is however that the world isn't tiptoeing around them anymore. If this continues long term, it will be the collapse of Russia. The Russian people might fix this with a coup and by killing Putin and his elite allies. But that would be hard and probably not likely.

The most likely thing is that Russia will try and occupy Ukraine and over the long term the Russian forces will be terrorized by Ukrainian groups while Russia suffocates under the upcoming sanctions.

As he has stated, his objective is to destroy the Ukrainian military. — ssu

Out of the "volcano of lies" that is Putin, one or two statements might actually be true.

The most likely thing is that Russia will try and occupy Ukraine and over the long term the Russian forces will be terrorized by Ukrainian groups while Russia suffocates under the upcoming sanctions. — Christoffer

I don't think so. I think this will become normalized in a year or two.

Åland Island is even demilitarized, so it's an easy picking for Putin, if that would happen. The border guards over there aren't much of a match and Russian helicopters have the range to fly there.

Now as tough sanctions (as EU members) and counter-sanctions from Russia will already happen, it does beg the question of what is the point? It dawned to me before the corona epidemic when sitting in the soldiers home in the local military garrison with fellow reservists and Finnish career officers and watched young British soldiers eating pizza. We are just fooling ourselves here with the non-aligned thing. Or simply giving this fig-leaf to Putin not to act. — ssu

Maybe this will push us together, Swedish and Finnish alliance, strengthening our entire line of defense. The best thing that comes out of Putin's stupidity is that it might shake apathetic nations into more defensive actions. I would like us both to join NATO and go further with a much better line of defense throughout the Baltic sea and the Finnish eastern border.

We are pretty good at ground warfare, Sweden has a good mechanical strength that is primarily fast moving and can move around much faster than many other nations. However, as we see in Ukraine, it's the air bombings and missiles that are the biggest problem. We would need cutting-edge laser weapons that use AI to automatically shoot down any enemy aircraft or missile. If we can guard the entirety of our nordic borders towards Russia with such a defense, it will be impossible for Russia to attack through the Baltic sea and the terrain in eastern Finland is extremely problematic for ground movements, so if the air is defended, it will be very hard for Russia to do anything.

My only worry is that politicans are naive and don't realize that Putin is essentially a new type of Stalin/Hitler-type dictator that require an extremely more advanced warfare defense line.

I don't think so. I think this will become normalized in a year or two. — frank

I'm talking about the upcoming sanctions. If the parameters of those sanctions are true, those are not something easily normalized in the long term.

I'm talking about the upcoming sanctions. If the parameters of those sanctions are true, those are not something easily normalized in the long term. — Christoffer

They can't go too far with sanctions because Russia owes Europe, particularly France, a lot of money. They have to give Russia access to European banks so they can pay their debt.

They can't go too far with sanctions because Russia owes Europe, particularly France, a lot of money. They have to give Russia access to European banks so they can pay their debt. — frank

Not if this conflict escalates, not if Putin acts on his indirect threats towards the west. But yes, the upcoming sanctions will go pretty far. The plans are to lock bank access and international trade. But the biggest hit will be a cut-off on trade with gas and oil while not trading export to Russia with electronics like semiconductors, which will tank any technological development or improvements of their military.

Everything depends on if this becomes long term or short term. If it's short term it will be painful for Russia. It's basically cutting off their ability to develop and work normally. This pressure will not be felt from the west towards Putin, but from the people of Russia towards Putin. That's the goal, destabilize Russia from within through isolation of Russia.

As Putin is obviously trying to reconstitute and reconquer the Russian (Soviet) Empire, he truly is the modern imperialist in the genuine sense. — ssu

for some strange reason you keep blabbering on about "Russian empire" — Apollodorus

You obviously don't understand the term "empire". — Apollodorus

....

Putin ... clearly intends to restore some of the Russian Empire, which I believe he is perfectly entitled to do. — Apollodorus

Presented without comment.

That's the goal, destabilize Russia from within through isolation of Russia. — Christoffer

I'd say there is a zero percent chance that destabilizing Russia is anybody's goal. Russia will turn to China for trade.

:lol:

I'd say there is a zero percent chance that destabilizing Russia is anybody's goal. Russia will turn to China for trade. — frank

With what trade routes? And you think they can cover every kind of trade? What if China lose other trade because people want to sanction their help towards Russia? China has a lot more to lose on international trade than Russia.

With what trade routes? — Christoffer

There are no roads between China and Russia?