Not me, not ever. Human touch is necessary for life :sparkle:or if we want to avoid pandemics we should take a cue from the Japanese and stop hugging, shaking hands and kiss for greetings. — Benkei
In a few months the World will be surprisingly adapted to the pandemic. Just as now it starts to be obvious that the health care system of New York State will not crash and manages through this reasonably well. But digging mass graves in the US isn't ordinary, I think.In a few months this will still likely be doing the rounds in terms of political posturing and media hysteria, but things - other than a hard hit economy - will return to some degree of normality. If some idiots in governments prolong the lockdowns beyond 2-3 months some people around the world will be feeling the economic damage for a couple of decades. — I like sushi
The death rates of confirmed cases in hospital are published every day. Today (actually the 24hrs up to 5pm yesterday) are 980. The actual figure can only be estimated because all the death certificates won't be tallied until later, also many deaths will be put down to some other cause. But a rule of thumb is probably about double the hospital death rate. The total hospital death rate for the UK is approx 9,000 as of yesterday.Note: I’m still curious to see the figures for deaths in the UK these past two weeks (will be released on April 14).
Going back to the less developed countries, I saw a scary report on UK Channel 4 tonight from Chile — Punshhh
We should spare a thought or a prayer for the millions of unfortunate souls who will suffer at this unfortunate time.Not me, not ever. Human touch is necessary for life :sparkle:
If I understand you, you might want to use a term like forced austerity or minimalism rather than essentialism. — praxis
The mortality rate is falling as more research is done. It looks like this is x3-4 more deadly than the flu. — I like sushi
Nevertheless, air pollution still kills more than 100,000 Americans every year. — Gardiner
I don't see the thread as derailed, it is rather a commentary on the progress of the pandemic as it happens. Welcome to the thread. — Punshhh
One could say the virus has been overestimated, but such considerations are relative to the mood of the population, how much preserving life, or economic circumstances are valued by the population. — Punshhh
If I sound callous sometimes, forgive me. I’m simply not inclined to think short term about these things. Such thinking can look like a lack of apathy — I like sushi
I think it’s easy not to think about this as it serves us to only take limited responsibility. I’m just saying if an comprehensive analysis is done and turns out that different actions could’ve saved literally millions of lives we can say with false comfort ‘maybe’ because it would cover up the horror of understanding that maybe for every one of ‘our own people’ we saved it led to the deaths of one thousand ‘others’. — I like sushi
The first problem in your analysis is that wage slavery (dying within a few weeks without a job) is not a necessary state of affairs. — boethius
The second problem in your analysis is that you're using numbers of deaths based on social distancing and economic shutdowns. If you want to "continue as normal" for the sake of the economy then you need to estimate deaths and casualties in that scenario. You can not take the benefits of social distancing and then compare that number to some number of knock-on deaths of economic shutdown. — boethius
An unmitigated spread of the virus in the US, for instance, would result, based on what we know so far, in millions of deaths based on case fatality rate so far and a health system so overwhelmed that essentially no one else can be treated for curable problems.
If your argument is "maybe the virus isn't so bad", which does have a very small but not entirely zero chance, then lock-down is still necessary to establish such a fact — boethius
A valiant effort to string together a bunch of maybes to get to the conclusion that "we need to sacrifice people for the economy". If the numbers can't be lined up within the US, then maybe some imagined series of facts can make the numbers lined up elsewhere and every American that is sacrificed saves thousands of others in a far off land. — boethius
In countries that don't have such strong institutions, such as the US and the UK, there was much more delay as the conceptual and organizational cost is much higher and the practical results much less efficient, but the logic is inescapable which is why Trump and Boris Johnson have come to the same policies as elsewhere (and the delay and mixed-messages simply caused more damage and costs than was necessary). — boethius
However, the conclusion to draw is not that in some alternative fantasy based view of the world that this point of view is only "short term" and there is a more noble "long term" analysis available where saving people's lives now is a selfish thing and just letting the virus take it's course to maintain market based distribution of resources would be the altruistic thing ultimately saving more peoples lives. — boethius
The mortality rate is now considered to be lower than 1% with current estimates of 0.3-0.4%. — I like sushi
It looks like the virus has been over estimated. The only serious problem it poses is keeping the elderly safe and managing healthcare (not a serious issue for developed countries). — I like sushi
You’ll have to explain this further please. — I like sushi
There is no ‘social distancing’ in India among the poor and they have, like many, many less developed nations, a severe lack of beds equipment and facilities. They are more concerned about starving than the virus. — I like sushi
To repeat. I am not saying developed countries should or shouldn’t stop lockdown. I have said I am concerned that they will be far too cautious in lifting the lockdowns due to media pressures and scaremongering (maybe not in those words though). I’ve also stated that if there are few cases and it’s not dealt with elsewhere it will come back in waves unless strict measures are put in place to inhibit global movement (which will likely hurt the poorest even more). — I like sushi
The US and UK don’t have ‘strong institutions’. Compared to what countries? — I like sushi
England has seen “significant widening” in life expectancy between rich and poor people, largely because of a fall in how long women in the most deprived parts of the country live, the latest figures show.1
The Office for National Statistics data show that life expectancy at birth of males living in England’s most deprived areas was 74.0 years in the years 2015 to 2017, whereas it was 83.3 years in the least deprived, a gap of 9.3 years. — British Medical Journal - though doesn't seem an academic paper, just reporting on such papers and is simply the first search engine hit I get
Literally millions of people around the world living hand to mouth have lost all sources of income. This means they cannot afford to feed themselves or their children. This also means if they are lucky enough not to die of starvation, and remain healthy enough to work once restrictions are lifted, then the wealthy people lining in relative comfort will have less disposable income with which to pay them leaving them in a much worse position than they were already in. — I like sushi
I’ve seen less a less reason for other people (under 60’s) to be overly concerned as this has wore on. Of course, something that spreads faster than the flu and is 3-4 times more deadly is going to burden healthcare. In a few months this will still likely be doing the rounds in terms of political posturing and media hysteria, but things - other than a hard hit economy - will return to some degree of normality. If some idiots in governments prolong the lockdowns beyond 2-3 months some people around the world will be feeling the economic damage for a couple of decades. — I Like Sushi
You base this on what?
It is entirely possible to social distance among the poor as well as for the poor to benefit from social distancing among the well-to-do (such as travel restrictions etc.).
Iran is a poor country that ran the unmitigated spread experiment; there was no economic benefit for bold unmitigated spread and they went into lock-down. — boethius
You are ignoring the fact governments can do something about starvation. — boethius
How about Congress dropping the Democrat/ Republican divide and getting the immense resources of your nation going? — rob staszewski
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