if i cant handle you at your skipped rock, i dont deserve you at your godspeed. this is perfect for right now, good play

It's hard to imagine why anyone would think China has been 'left off the hook' by anyone. All through Feburary, China was a punching bag for everyone for whom this virus was the lot of exotic foreigners with their bizzare cultural practices. In many cases Chinese people - people I know - where verbally abused on the street, and in some cases physically assulted. — StreetlightX

I didn't really know if there was a wider debate here.. I just saw NOS's last comment and had to agree with at least that part of it. As far as racism and bigotry and such, obviously that is terrible, ignorant, etc. I'm all for multiculturalism but whether you call it "bizarre cultural practices" to showcase the ignorance of the West or not, wherever the source comes from (Western or industrializing societies polluting the globe for example), it should be pointed out where certain problems begin to prevent it.. Apparently it is now well known that the wild animal meat markets are one major source for modern contagions and will probably continue if there isn't an attempt to prevent it. Can we agree on that? Another example of this is Ebola from bats, and HIV starting from the consumption of chimp meat.

Brief report about how the southern hemisphere is preparing:

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=7Ru8qsQ9wQs

Joining the conversation late so perhaps this has already been discussed; where I live there is a statewide quarantine until mid-April since last week, and I have been working from home since the week before. I suspect the stay at home order will be extended. Others I have talked to have predicted the same, but for how long seems to be up in the air. Some have said May, others June, and still other September and even November. Mid-April seems too early, but to extend it to November seems impossible to enforce and will tank the economy in ways that will ultimately hurt more people than the coronavirus itself would.

What do people on here think? When do you expect things will begin to go back to "normal"?

May I suggest that blame games, finger pointing and personal theories may be better suited at a later date.

It would probably be both more interesting/useful to discuss future and present courses of action. Leaving the posturing to the politicians and exchanging information would be more beneficial.

Note: I say this under the assumption that people may visit this site looking for a balanced view of the situation. The disruption globally means we’re now all responsible and our words on this subject do actually count for something.

I WON’T be responding to some counter argument on this point - feel free to discuss that with me on a fresh thread though

Take care

It incredibly hard to figure out. This has been a major concern for me since a month ago.

The best I can make out suggests the developed world needs to get into severe lockdown in order to gets through this as quickly as possible in order to support the developing world. Remember that ‘economy’ essentially means distribution of resources. Poor allocation of food and medical supplies/equipment could lead to the progress made in the developing world the past few decades being nullified.

No matter what the most important thing is international cooperation as this is a problem for humanity not merely a nationalistic game of favour exchanges. Are we up to the task, who knows. One thing for sure, we’ll make more mistakes before this is over so it’s a matter of how we cope with the mistakes to come I think.

Joining the conversation late so perhaps this has already been discussed; where I live there is a statewide quarantine until mid-April since last week, and I have been working from home since the week before. I suspect the stay at home order will be extended. Others I have talked to have predicted the same, but for how long seems to be up in the air. Some have said May, others June, and still other September and even November. Mid-April seems too early, but to extend it to November seems impossible to enforce and will tank the economy in ways that will ultimately hurt more people than the coronavirus itself would.

What do people on here think? When do you expect things will begin to go back to "normal"? — darthbarracuda

gut take - I think April is going to be horrible. We're still at the beginning. It will get real, next month, when cases overwhelm hospitals. I think that will carry on into may and, at least, June. I think we'll all be collectively traumatized going into july. My guess, as of now, is August will be when things will start kind of adjusting to normal (where 'normal' means merely 'not a disaster') (obviously this is all wild speculation, but thats my spur of the moment reaction)

That's about what I was thinking too. Most everyone I know seems to be taking the stay at home order as an annoying inconvenience that they reluctantly semi-participate in...the bubble has not popped yet, coronavirus still has not become a real thing. Once people they know start getting sick and/or dying is when it will suddenly become much more serious.

On the positive side, as very introverted person the stay-at-home order has made my job much more comfortable and enjoyable. I'm eating healthier and exercising regularly. Obviously this is not the case for many people, especially those who have lost their jobs. Silver lining, I suppose.

Poor allocation of food and medical supplies/equipment could lead to the progress made in the developing world the past few decades being nullified. — I like sushi

What areas of progress do you have in mind here?

Darth, what do you think of the idea of a worldwide effort try to shutdown wild animal markets to prevent spread of viruses like COVID-19?

On the positive side, as very introverted person the stay-at-home order has made my job much more comfortable and enjoyable. I'm eating healthier and exercising regularly. Obviously this is not the case for many people, especially those who have lost their jobs. Silver lining, I suppose. — darthbarracuda

I've felt weird about this, but same. I've lost 6 pounds since this started (or to be precise, since when I started working at home the beginning of this month) I've felt happier and more relaxed. I *look* much better, almost dramatically so. I've felt significantly happier. I've been thinking about this - is it that I'm usually so morose and anxious with no clear cause that that makes me feel isolated - but when everyone feels similarly, I feel more connected?

is it that I'm usually so morose and anxious with no clear cause, which makes me feel isolated, that when everyone feels similarly, I feel more connected? — csalisbury

You perhaps felt more acutely that we are just finding ways to occupy time, survive, maintain. Others who are used to routines and getting caught up in some sort of task, might have to be more introspective than they are used to. This causes mass existential questioning of life itself, purpose, and what the hell is the point of perpetuating it, maintaining it, dealing with it in the first place. Of course, existential reflection will just become a passing fad.. "That was so 2020" they might say.. Back to unreflective living it is.

Darth, what do you think of the idea of a worldwide effort try to shutdown wild animal markets to prevent spread of viruses like COVID-19? — schopenhauer1

They should be shutdown regardless.

They should be shutdown regardless. — darthbarracuda

Agreed.. I gave the example of SARS, COVID, Ebola, and HIV all starting from wild meat/bush meat practices. Was there a concerted effort to shut this down sooner? I don't recall, but clearly not enough.

You perhaps felt more acutely that we are just finding ways to occupy time, survive, maintain. Others who are used to routines and getting caught up in some sort of task, might have to be more introspective than they are used to. This causes mass existential questioning of life itself, purpose, and what the hell is the point of perpetuating it, maintaining it, dealing with it in the first place. Of course, existential reflection will just become a passing fad.. "That was so 2020" they might say.. Back to unreflective living it is. — schopenhauer1

that doesnt sound like my experience, but it does put me in mind of the revolving door of your thinking. i don't want to jump to conclusions, but maybe you're thinking of what you think about?

I've been thinking about this - is it that I'm usually so morose and anxious with no clear cause, which makes me feel isolated, that when everyone feels similarly, I feel more connected? — csalisbury

Yeah, I can see that. I think for myself I just prefer to work by myself, undisturbed by people. My productivity has skyrocketed, lol

that doesnt sound like my experience, but it does put me in mind of the revolving door of your thinking — csalisbury

I don't know, you said

is it that I'm usually so morose and anxious with no clear cause — csalisbury

But I see now you meant something along the lines of "We are all in this together" maybe.

Way more jobs can be done from home than is allowed. Doesn't make sense except for old ideas of control in the workplace.

I guess you’re asking me how to deal with allocation of resources? Basically we need to discuss this across as many platforms as possible to remind governments we care about humanity not just national interests.

It was absolutely a skipped rock. Current apocalypse listening: — StreetlightX

Can people stop bypassing the 'What are you listening to right now' thread and posting their music every which where. @unenlightened has been especially guilty of this recently I've noticed

You might enjoy this piece by Catherine Malabou:

https://transversal.at/blog/to-quarantine-from-quarantine

"Such is perhaps the most difficult challenge in a lockdown situation: to clear a space where to be on one’s own while already separated from the community. Being cooped up on a boat with a few others of course generates a feeling of estrangement, but estrangement is not solitude, and solitude is, in reality, what makes confinement bearable. And this is true even if one is already on one’s own. I noticed that what made my isolation extremely distressing was in fact my incapacity to withdraw into myself. To find this insular point where I could be my self (in two words). I am not talking here of authenticity, simply of this radical nakedness of the soul that allows to build a dwelling in one’s house, to make the house habitable by locating the psychic space where it is possible to do something, that is, in my case, write.

I noticed that writing only became possible when I reached such a confinement within confinement, a place in the place where nobody could enter and that at the same time was the condition for my exchanges with others. When I was able to get immersed in writing, conversations through Skype, for example, became something else. They were dialogues, not veiled monologues. Writing became possible when solitude started to protect me from isolation. One has to undress from all the coverings, clothes, curtains, masks, and meaningless chattering that still stick to one’s being when one is severed from others."

Haha, fair enough, I forget that thread exists sometimes.

This user has been deleted and all their posts removed.

I resurrected it just a while ago

Hence my protective attitude

I'm just waiting when our dear neighbor Sweden will change it's policy and quarantine Stockholm. I think there the only Nordic country with schools open etc. and going with herd "immunity". — ssu

Flying blind. At the other extreme, New Zealand have been on lockdown for several days and had its first death yesterday.

I agree with your concerns here, especially with the recent trends towards protectionism. I think more support for undeveloped countries will be called for once large numbers start dying in those countries. But, due to the rapid infection rate, it will be to little to late. Most developed countries are doing to little to late for their own populations already. We should look to how China, South Korea, Singapore etc for how to go about it.

I don't think we will be over the peak anytime soon, in the UK the experts announced yesterday that the lockdown is expected to last for at least 6 months, with only tentative attempts at relaxation of measures towards the end of this period. Personally, I expect it to be for a few more months than that before significant restrictions can be lifted.

While in these kind of lockdowns, developed countries won't be able to offer effective support to other countries experiencing difficulties. China may come to the rescue, but I doubt it, or that they may only be able to help a few countries.

I worry about Gaza, it's not going to be pretty, and who would help, would the Israelis end the blockade to help, I doubt it.

I would think South Korea is the other extreme. Where they use your phone data (and they know it's yours, with name and everything) to warn everybody with a cellphone in your vicinity that you have or are suspected to have Coronavirus.

Flying blind. At the other extreme, New Zealand have been on lockdown for several days and had it's first death yesterday. — Andrew M

We had too our first death after implementing the lockdown. Yet I'm not sure if Sweden is totally opposite to New Zealand. I think there's a lot more variables than the policy measures taken especially if you haven't chosen the South Korea / Singapore option right from the start.

Sounds somewhat in line with what Fauci has estimated.Well, you'll see how correct the model is in a few weeks.

Welcome to the reality of hidden exponential growth. In three more days, the US will have at least 200,000 confirmed cases.
— Andrew M

I calculate about 150,000. But it's going to be bad one way or the other. — Baden

Let's see then on next Monday what the figures are. (Let's see who got closer! :death: ) — ssu

So the numbers are in:

Confirmed COVID-19 cases in the United States:

Mar 26: 81,966 (+26%)
Mar 27: 100,997 (+23%)
Mar 28: 121,105 (+20%)
Mar 29: 141,701 (+17%)

@Baden: Your prediction of 150,000 is pretty much on the money.

The difference with the models is that yours assumes that measures applied in March had an appreciable effect on "flattening the curve" (similar to Italy's growth curve). Whereas mine simply assumes the prior average growth (approx. +35%/day) until two weeks after lockdown (i.e., to see an effect in the data).

Some candidate measures: voluntary social distancing has been gradually increasing; testing and isolating positive cases has rapidly increased. Also several one-off events as noted in the timeline below (italicized). Since New York was the significant case contributor, I've included both NY-specific events and national events.

Timeline for March:
March 1 - First confirmed NY case
March 2 - US confirmed cases pass 100
March 5 - Two confirmed cases in NY without trace
March 11 - US confirmed cases pass 1,100
March 13 - US confirmed cases pass 2,100
March 14 - First death in NY
March 15 - Europe travel ban
March 16 - UK/Ireland travel ban
- NY public schools close
- Trump issues guidelines to avoid gatherings > 10 people
- Trump restricts discretionary travel
March 20 - Cuomo issues state-wide order that all non-essential workers must stay home
- confirmed cases pass 7,000 in NY, 19,000 in US
March 26 - US confirmed cases pass 82,000 (surpassing China)
March 29 - US has 141,701 confirmed cases, 2,462 deaths

It's been an eventful month for the US. Unfortunately, many more states besides NY will begin to factor significantly in the next week.

I like to be able to walk around in my boxers and bump loud music and sing along, every now and then, just to decompress. — csalisbury

What's stopping you?