An obvious difference though is that share prices try to reflect the value of the company where it's usually clear that labour adds value. — Benkei
began to watch the GDAX board — ArguingWAristotleTiff
Today, stock prices represent buybacks funded by cheap interest rates driven by massive QE by the world's central banks. — fishfry
That GDAX board sure is addictive! I don't trust the exchanges with serious money. But I have a little play money in there and the past few nights I spend way to much time watching the green and orange candlesticks fight it out on the Litecoin chart on GDAX.
You know, if we could see all this from twenty years in the future, a lot of things would be completely obvious. And the clues were here all the time. But in the present we can't see what's true and what will last.
Perhaps this is the start of a philosophical view. What things last? What things pass? If we think from that point of view, can we figure out how to intelligently deploy our assets in the crypto revolution to come?
I think the current wild west environment is fun to watch but nothing I'd recommend that anyone spend any serious money in. One week it's bitcoin then it's bcash then it's ripple and now it's ethereum. If anyone could figure out what the hysterical dumb crowd is going to do ahead of everyone else, you could surf that wave and make money.
But who can predict the actions of the raving crowd? "I can calculate the motions of the heavens, but not the madness of people." -- Isaac Newton, after losing his fortune in the South Sea Island bubble of 1720. — fishfry
NicK woke up with an awesome idea of using the block chain application, for government voting — ArguingWAristotleTiff
For the plunge to stop I think the changing of accounting rules had an effect. It surely is one of the factors. But there are naturally others, of course, ...that the World didn't end, that the international monetary system didn't collapse (just came close to collapsing) and that when prices went low enough, the bubble had burst and it was time to go in the other direction.I've watched this and it really isn't informative. His explanation of mark-to-market is a bit of a misrepresentation. He doesn't really offer a solution or talk about the alternative and it tends towards a single cause fallacy, while at the same time he already highlights several issues that are co-causes. When talking about these sort of things, I think we should be talking about contributing factors and not causes. — Benkei
Umm...created what exactly? Speculative bubbles traditionally happen because of loose monetary markets.First, excess cash is a contributing factor and QE and low interest rates created this. — Benkei
Has it been something else, truly? Perhaps in the age when owners were the innovators themselves who started the companies.Second, modern corporate capitalism, especially in the US, is all about short term gain and after the repeal of the glass-steagall act they started pursuing short term profits with money that should've stayed off limits (e.g. deposits). Simply put, you shouldn't gamble with other people's savings. In a way, this created a larger pool of cash as well - contributing factor. — Benkei
A lot of markets have been "unhinged" from reality for a long time.Third, complexity. Bankers didn't know what they were buying and selling any more. Once you don't understand the underlying economics of the product any more, the product is unhinged from the real economy and it becomes a pure supply-demand equillibrium based on sentiment. — Benkei
For the plunge to stop I think the changing of accounting rules had an effect. It surely is one of the factors. — ssu
Banks are quite different: car manufacturers can compete with a lot things, banks with just the interest rate. This makes banking all about scale. — ssu
And anyway, I still believe this is going to a classic bubble with cryptocurrencies. — ssu
I see some people making consistently accurate predictions on price movements for bitcoin - both the rises and falls. That indicates there's more to it than simple market sentiment and herd mentality. I'm curious what. — Benkei
I've said 6-7K sometime before Christmas, but purely on a technical, non-fundamental kind of analysis. My guess would be these guys also use a technical analysis, I doubt they're looking into fundamentals for something as volatile as BTC.Expected to slide down to 5k USD according to Michael Kovacocy — Benkei
I have applied a rather bespoke analytical framework. A combination of an overlay of historical bubble comparison (stage evolution, drivers, transparency, basis/lack of basis of intrinsic value) along with fundamentals and technical analysis. Fundamentals has included understanding the structure operates for an opaque pricing mechanism and Ponzi capability for releasing "physical" Bitcoin from those at the top of the pyramid to those at the bottom. Fundamentals have also included a fair bit of game theory and understanding the motivations of various key actors and how they would be likely to respond, from money launderers to speculators to Asians trying to move money out of jurisdictions locked down by capital controls to regulators, etc. — Kovacocy
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