The obvious strategic move is to decapitate Ukraine and install a puppet. — RogueAI

Exactly. — ssu

It's not obvious at all for anyone with more than a surface-level understanding of the political reality in Ukraine.

You can't just "decapitate" a country that has been preparing for war for a decade with western backing. And you don't just "install a puppet" for the same reason.

A puppet regime would probably last about a day, and all you would have achieved is to give the foreign backers total control over the country.

The Kremlin typically declares these as their justification:

• bad bad NATO/West, needs to go away (†)
• bad bad Ukraine, needs deNazification + demilitarization (†)
• bad bad Ukraine, genocide on Russian-speakers

Apart from their usual bombing and such, the Kremlin

• employs heavy-duty crackdowns domestically
• employs heavy-duty crackdowns in occupied areas + Russification
• employs offenses against others externally (†)

You don't need access to classified information to exemplify their rhetoric (propaganda) and their hostile acts (unless you're in Russia perhaps).
House Trump exceeds them in sheer amount of (in-your-face) lying/misrepresentation, though.

Here's a snippet of examples of the first two and the last • above (†) in chronological order, that coherently go together:

• Russia’s Influence on Europe’s Far-Right Violent Extremism
• The children of Severomorsk are told that neighbouring Nordic countries support Nazism
• Two foreigners detained for displaying Nazi symbols in Pechersk, Kyiv, - police. PHOTOS
• Two foreign nationals detained in Pechersk district for displaying Nazi symbols
• From Moscow with chaos: How Russia unites extremists across Germany
• Chats: Wie Putin seinen Krieg der Desinformation auf Wiens Straßen führt
• In Austria, an FSB network disguised as "Ukrainian Nazis" was exposed
• Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov’s interview with the Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting media corporation, Moscow, December 15, 2025

A short summary is that the Kremlin circle more or less says that the better part of Europe supports/is Nazist, and they've engineered some supposed evidence.
Anyone in Europe can tell how ridiculous it is; they're talking post-truth alternate world; plus, Kyiv is decidedly not a Nazi rule; the Russian government is worse than those they accuse.
There's a lot of such evidence, from or corroborated by several independent sources, spanning a decade (well, more).

But you are assuming Putin is sane, what he has done is insane. Certainly if Putin’s goal was to increase Russia’s security, what has resulted is the opposite. Not the moves of a smart, or sane man.

But you are assuming Putin is sane, what he has done is insane. — Punshhh

Exactly— you assume he’s insane. Which is so ridiculous it’s unbelievable it’s seriously argued.

When did he become insane exactly? When he invaded Ukraine? Or Crimea? Before then, what? Because nobody was saying he was insane back then.

Much like the use of “terrorist”, these have become codes for essentially anything we don’t like. Meanwhile, Mohammed bin Salman is considered sane, and gets invited to the White House. They’re just fine until they go against US interests. Then they’re evil maniacs bent on destroying the world.

Very good post.

I can’t imagine you really know anything about this topic either, but given your constantly bad guesswork I now question whether I’m right. Thanks anyway though— I definitely care about your approval.

Exactly— you assume he’s insane. Which is so ridiculous it’s unbelievable it’s seriously argued.

I don’t assume he’s insane, I’m considering it, because his actions appear to be the actions of someone with questionable sanity. I mean to say repeatedly for over a decade that NATO (a defensive alliance) is encroaching upon Russia. Leaving him no alternative but to invade a province of Ukraine, precipitating Sweden and Finland to join NATO. Alienating the Ukrainian people for generations to come which will push them into the arms of Europe and leave them with no alternative but to join NATO. To galvanise Europe into re-arming, following the post war settlement and ending the lucrative oil and gas deals with European countries.

Either he is insane, or he has another agenda. Like an agenda to cling onto power in Russia by claiming Russia is under attack, requiring the imposition of martial law and mass conscription. This requires an actual war to sustain, so he invades a Ukrainian province. The Russian people become powerless to oppose him, because the young men of Russia are being forcibly sent to the front lines to be killed in a war of attrition. A strategy rather like Assad’s regime in Syria, to literally destroy your own country to maintain power.

Either way, the sensible thing for Ukraine to do is fight and defeat the Russian invasion and ask Europe for assistance. While building alliances with Europe with the aim of becoming a EU member and joining the NATO alliance. Any alternative would be to throw the Ukrainian people to the wolves. Weaken Europe and encourage Putin to push his agenda further afield.

Either he is insane, or he has another agenda. — Punshhh

Yes, like keeping Ukraine a buffer state and not allowing missiles on Russia’s border. Would it be insane if Trump invaded Mexico if China were conducting military drills, supplying weapons, and discussing a military alliance?

Yes Ukraine as a buffer zone makes sense, if one believes something that Putin says. But Putin’s actions worked against this becoming a possibility. Culminating in Russia invading Crimea 2014. Any reasonable prospect of this working was long over by that point. Alternatively perhaps Putin is planning to prevent Ukraine joining NATO by either occupying part of Ukraine, or installing a Putin friendly government in Kiev. But this won’t work either because he would have to occupy all of Ukraine to prevent the parts he doesn’t control then joining NATO after the war has ended. Also there still wouldn’t be a buffer zone. Infact there isn’t going to be any buffer zone.
So everything has, or is failing, apart from one thing. Putin is cementing his dictator status in Russia on a par with Stalin and he will crush, or destroy his own people and country to maintain his position.

But Putin’s actions worked against this becoming a possibility. — Punshhh

Not really.

. Alternatively perhaps Putin is planning to prevent Ukraine joining NATO by either occupying part of Ukraine, — Punshhh

:up:

Putin is cementing his dictator status in Russia on a par with Stalin — Punshhh

He’s very little like Stalin, actually.

Not really.

It would require trust and integrity from both sides of the buffer state. The trust might have been there at the point of the signing of the Budapest Memorandum. Once this agreement had been broken by either side, the inevitable outcome would be a new iron curtain. Which is where we are heading.

How is occupying part of Ukraine going to prevent Ukraine joining NATO?

He’s very little like Stalin, actually.

I mean in the level of control. We don’t know if new gulags have been built yet. Putin will want to maintain the impression of normality as long as possible. So it will be done slowly and quietly.

How is occupying part of Ukraine going to prevent Ukraine joining NATO? — Punshhh

You want me to explain it to you? Why not Google it?

https://www.cfr.org/articles/neutrality-alternative-ukraines-membership-nato

During war and with territorial disputes, it’s very unlikely NATO accepts members. Even if it’s agreed that everything Russia has occupied becomes part of Russia, it’s still extremely unlikely that the western parts become NATO members. NATO membership is dead for Ukraine— there’s no way around it.

The article spells out NATO membership in all but name. So after another 10years or so after the war has finished, it will be formally recognised.

The article agrees with my assessment (which I made at the beginning of the thread) that there will be a new iron curtain;

NATO allies have to recognize that their new frontier—the Iron Curtain, the inner German border, the East-West divide—runs from the Barents Sea to the Black Sea and along the border between Ukraine and Russia.

Even if it’s agreed that everything Russia has occupied becomes part of Russia, it’s still extremely unlikely that the western parts become NATO members. NATO membership is dead for Ukraine— there’s no way around it.

As I say, a member in all but name, which is pretty much what has pertained since the annexation of Crimea in 2014. Even if the U.S. pulls out of support for Ukraine, Europe will step into the breach and finish the job.

not allowing missiles on Russia’s border — Mikie

Too late for that.
Not that there ever were nuclear missiles on their border (or Ukraine's).
Do you think Putin will declare a "special Finland military operation" if the Finns install systems to shoot down nuclear missiles?

Defense of Ukraine need not be NATO, though Budapest turned out useless.
I'm sure the Ukrainians would accept some other sufficient defense agreement.
But that might well (also) get in the way of the Kremlin's plans, even if it meant peace and no NATO.
What are the chances that Putin would hand back the occupied territories?

The article spells out NATO membership in all but name. So after another 10years or so after the war has finished, it will be formally recognised. — Punshhh

No, and no.

As I say, a member in all but name — Punshhh

Well, what can I say? You’re just not paying attention. The difference is real, and it matters.

Well, what can I say? You’re just not paying attention. The difference is real, and it matters

Yes, there is a difference, but for whom does it matter? The only person I can think of who would be very concerned about it is Putin. Meanwhile, European and Ukrainian leaders have been meeting frequently. There is increased military integration and support between the militaries of European countries and Ukraine forces. Alliances which have been developed since 2014*. This is all going on quietly behind the scenes, without the inevitable reaction from Putin that there would be if formal NATO status for Ukraine was being negotiated.

*following the invasion of Crimea.