So, overall, 0.4 of a person has died from coronavirus? Wow, it really is a hoax then.

Anyway, yes, let's open things up now, because no matter what the death rate is, we need MORE. — Baden

I provided. accurate raw data. The incorrect commentary is your own.

For anyone interested, a quick calculation tells me the current number of the world population that has already died from coronavirus expressed as a percentage is 0.00034 (27,000 / 8 billion x 100 — Baden

It'd actually be 27,000 / (8 billion x 100).

I provided. accurate raw data. The incorrect commentary is your own. — Hanover

It's 4 not 0.4, but 0.4 was funnier. In any case your figure...

The worldwide coronavirus death rate has now risen to .00000004%. — Hanover

...is completely wrong. There are 8 billion people in the world. 1% of 8 billion is 80 million. 0.1% is 8 million. 0.01% = 800,000. 0.001% is 80,000 (roughly twice the current death rate). 0.0001% = 8,000. 0.00001% = 800. 0.000001% = 80. 0.0000001% = 8. 0. .00000004% (your figure) is about 4.

It'd actually be 27,000 / (8 billion x 100). — Hanover

There are two people having this conversation argument, Hanover. What number and what percentage of them are right?

1 (number of correct people, me)/2 (total number of people, me and you) = 0.5. Now multiply by 100 = 50% of the people in this conversation argument are right.

Your calculation would give 1/(2x100) = 0.5%. See?

There are two people in this conversation, Hanover. What number and what percentage of them are right? — Baden

You are dehumanising a number of contributors there good buddy. Moderator elitism of the most blatant sort.

Sorry, dude. I was specifically referring to our argument and just wanted to make things simple. :halo:

I feel like you are trolling me. :down: — ArguingWAristotleTiff

The juggling act, as NOS puts it, is between human lives and the life of the economy. I would expect that someone who brands themself with phrases like "loving people" wouldn't be so quick to support juggling lives.

Anyhow, whether it's a month or a year or somewhere in between, it's in the near future and we don't have time to faff about. — Baden

Perhaps you could you explain to me how these medical experts (commenting four days ago) have it so wrong?

People willing to trade their freedom for temporary security deserve neither and will lose both. — Benjamin Franklin

Quote reputable data from a reputable source if you want to debate the issue. And quote where the data contradicts anything I've said. Don't send me to conspiracy/pseudoscience sites unless it's to inform me that you're a nutjob not worth engaging with.

[Category: "CONSPIRACY-PSEUDOSCIENCE"

https://mediabiasfactcheck.com/offguardian/ ]

Yeah, I guess that how it usually goes in democracies. First something really bad needs to happen before an issue is taken seriously and policy measure can be taken... and then they overreact for a while so it's abundantly clear to the voting public that they really really did something about it.

We still have the military parading around in our train stations after the 2016 terrorist attacks...

It's all so reactionary, no vision to be found at all. — ChatteringMonkey

That is the way it goes.

Especially with the military parading around. Usually it's just a photo op and to calm the people by showing that the government has done something. But there are also effective policies and actions that can be implemented which can be especially with fighting pandemics be successful.

And they can be harsh. You see it for example in Australia: people coming back from abroad are put into mandatory two week quarantine to hotels from where have to be inside and cannot leave or face a hefty fine.

Australian citizens and residents returning from overseas will be forced to quarantine in hotels in a bid to stop the spread of Covid-19 from returning passengers in breach of existing self-isolation requirements.

On Friday, Scott Morrison announced that national cabinet had agreed on the strict new measures to apply from midnight on Saturday, with the Australian Defence Force also set to help state law enforcement increase checks on passengers who arrived before the deadline, who are supposed to self-isolate for 14 days.

The police and the army enforce quarantine. Just like in China. So the future way to handle these kind of threats even in Western democracies is already implemented.

The overreactions are also noticeable. Here one official had the brainfart of tweeting the idea that perhaps for the shelter-in time one should ban all selling of alcohol. Well, likely if that proposal would be seriously discussed, then alcohol would be hoarded like toilet paper. Finns would react like Americans to buying guns if the government introduced legislation to limiting firearm sales!

This discussion was merged into Front line clinicians fear for themselves and their families.

This discussion was merged into Front line clinicians fear for themselves and their families.

This discussion was merged into Front line clinicians fear for themselves and their families.

Emergency powers are never rescinded. — Galuchat

Of course they are rescinded. Where do you get such nonsense?

When it comes to the math these should help iron out any disagreements :

- https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=k6nLfCbAzgo
- https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=gxAaO2rsdIs

Spreading confusion via trying to ‘win’ an argument doesn’t really help anyone. Just provide people with the resources to look for themselves - generally people are rational enough to know not to drink fish tank cleaner (generally!).

Statistics used by to predict are not the same as stats used to manipulate the public. Scientists and mathematicians lean heavily toward the former whilst politicians and conspiracy theorists lean heavily toward the latter.

My general advice is to generally ignore people/articles/reports that are more concerned with finger pointing than anything else.

Note: I’m still massively worried about the longterm problems posed for developing countries.

My VERY basic understanding of the situation at present is the developed countries better clamp down severely and get sorted in order to help the developing countries and halt second, third, fourth and multiple seasonal waves of this that would certainly lead to as good as 100% infected. That in my mind is the challenge - turning inward and nationalistic rather than viewing a global problem as a global problem that we have to, both morally and practically, pull together for despite the cultural differences and personal agendas.

It could’ve been a LOT worse and it could be a LOT worse too. We’ve got choice on our side though. Such an event may actually help the human race in the long run - silver linings are there :)

Hopefully, we are near the peak and once developed countries have got the spread under control in a manageable way. They will be able to develop resources and begin to donate them to the less developed countries and help them to get it under control, so as to reduce the adverse effects of an exponential growth curve in their countries. But this I fear is the optimistic view, from where I'm standing, we are not near the peak yet as there are only a few thousand infections in each country, out of millions. I think it is much harder to prevent spread than has been comprehended, without a total control of the population as we see in Wuhan.

The other reality is that less developed countries will become endemic and then, as you say, keep infecting travellers. Unless an effective vaccine is developed.

It might be time to consider the government control of information. This does usually happen during wartime conditions. For example, there is none, or very little mention of the conditions in Iran in the mainstream media, or many other less developed countries. Perhaps media becomes ineffective, or suppressed in such places. Our intelligence services might be aware of more severe outbreaks, but it is being kept secret from our populations, so as to prevent panic.

Also it has occurred to me how fragile the state of the food chain is in my country (UK), even now most supermarkets have many empty shelves and they are struggling to fill them. It is this bad with only maybe 50,000 infections (again, we don't know how many). What about when we get over a million and the key workers involved in this supply chain start to fall away (not to mention a staffing crisis in healthcare). Such problems could emerge in the media in a sensational way causing mass panic. By this point, it would have to become an army operation with rationed food supplies only available from specified depots.

There have been reports today of unreast and civil disobedience in Italy, as a result of the population being confined to their homes.

If by ‘near peak’ you mean ‘rate of infection’ it’s far too early to say that for Italy. In terms of number hospitalised and/or infected, we’re likely 1-2 months away if it’s kept under reasonable control, then a month or two after that before restrictions can ease up.

Remember Wuhan has been in total lockdown for as good as 3 months. In Europe and North America the response has been much slower because we’re not as experienced with this and we’ve dismissed it in the past - I dismissed it too at first and thought it was an overreaction (I’m still concerned about the developing countries though and the economy killing many).

There are positives though, but complacency is in developed countries could lead to us bloodying our hands with the starving from developing countries because we didn’t react in time and would’ve been better off carrying without further breaking the backs of poorer nations.

I think the best thought is ‘Okay, this is shit. But at least I’m not in a slum in Cape Town sharing a toilet with 30 people whilst scraping a living from day to day to feed myself and my family.”

Sharing information is what will save us not destroy us. They’ll be conspiracy theorists as usual but the positives far outweigh the negatives imo.

We’re better off talking to each other. I cannot think of any situation where discussion and information sharing doesn’t have more benefits than deficits.

Sharing information is what will save us not destroy us. They’ll be conspiracy theorists as usual but the positives far outweigh the negatives imo.

We’re better off talking to each other. I cannot think of any situation where discussion and information sharing doesn’t have more benefits than deficits.

If there is a real chance of civil unreast, the authorities will control information. Also with panic, once you have let to cat out of the bag, you can't put it back in again easily. The public is still calm and sleepy, while worried and a bit alarmed, it won't take much to push them over the edge. In London the situation is fraught, a disgruntled population becomes more difficult to nudge into effective social distancing measures. Meaning you need the army on the streets. They will want to avoid this.

The masses may act dumb from time to time, but the public - person for person - aren’t so easily duped.

If I’m wrong we get what we deserve. If the ‘truth’ is too much for some they can join the ranks of the flatlanders. Tell people what to expect and they won’t generally freak out when it happens. Lie, cheat and deceive, and you’re essentially digging your own grave.

Why do think I’m worried about starvation? The threat of catching a virus isn’t all that terrible on a full stomach. The developed world won’t starve, they’ll just get a brief and dilute version of what billions of others are going to have to cope with in far less comfortable circumstances.

“The US response will be studied for generations as a textbook example of a disastrous, failed effort,” Ron Klain, who spearheaded the fight against Ebola in 2014, told a Georgetown university panel recently. “What’s happened in Washington has been a fiasco of incredible proportions.”

Jeremy Konyndyk, who led the US government’s response to international disasters at USAid from 2013 to 2017, frames the past six weeks in strikingly similar terms. He told the Guardian: “We are witnessing in the United States one of the greatest failures of basic governance and basic leadership in modern times.”

In Konyndyk’s analysis, the White House had all the information it needed by the end of January to act decisively. Instead, Trump repeatedly played down the severity of the threat, blaming China for what he called the “Chinese virus” and insisting falsely that his partial travel bans on China and Europe were all it would take to contain the crisis."

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/mar/28/trump-coronavirus-politics-us-health-disaster

Frikkin banana republic.

Frikkin banana republic. — StreetlightX

The non-latitudist term is "failed state".

Quote reputable data from a reputable source if you want to debate the issue. And quote where the data contradicts anything I've said. Don't send me to conspiracy/pseudoscience sites unless it's to inform me that you're a nutjob not worth engaging with.

[Category: "CONSPIRACY-PSEUDOSCIENCE" — Baden

Fair enough.
Being concerned with science fact (as opposed to science fiction), you will no doubt be interested in the comments of these 12 experts from the original media sources linked in this spurious article.
After:
1) Searching each source on medibiasfactcheck to ascertain bias, and
2) Actually listening to, or reading, said comments,
Please don't forget to quote anything which has not been accurately reproduced in said spurious article.
I admit that the videos could be deepfakes.

Try the first two for starters:
1) Sucharit Bhakdi
2) Wolfgang Wodarg

You will recall your main contention: "we don't have time to faff about."

According to the foregoing expert testimony, this panic, and the extraordinary public measures being introduced, are unfounded (have no justification in medical fact).

So now perhaps you could explain to me how these medical experts have it so wrong? I assumed that your familiarity with the relevant raw data, graphs, calculations, and the models current projections are based on, qualified you to render an informed opinion in this regard. My mistake if that is not the case.

Who is spreading pseudoscience here? Could it be these 12 experts? Neil Ferguson? You? Me?

Also, you will recall how Stalinist Russia and Nazi Germany "disappeared" their intellectual elite. So it's no surprise to me that only a few forum members are concerned about the possibility of authoritarianism or fascism arising from emergency legislation.

What distinguishes conspiracy theory from conspiracy fact, and who makes that determination? I will have a good laugh when The Philosophy Forum "disappears" comments/members which/who contradict official narratives.

I can't find any argument in your post relating to something I said except the false claim that I'm promoting panic. I would be against that. I am also against faffing about. I'll leave you to work out why those are consistent.

And we will make no apologies for banning crackpots. That has nothing to do with official narratives. If you find that funny, feel free to laugh into your Kool aid.

Full determination, absolute consistency, and a clear unwavering plan = the virus.

Weakness, incoherency, and movement in random directions = Trump.

Wonder who's going to win this one?

The virus however, is mindless.

Which means Trump, who is failing miserably in his response...

Did someone say mindless? This is what leaderless looks like. It looks like a mindlessly spreading virus.

https://www.commondreams.org/news/2020/03/27/cell-phone-tracking-analysis-shows-where-florida-springbreakers-and-new-yorkers?fbclid=IwAR3yEj38_9LF_gOiVilEoqKNOL46sPwkTJ5F9DWcOOY1aLYPbd176tRw61c

And for your mathematical intuition's education... https://www.forbes.com/sites/alexknapp/2011/11/17/the-seduction-of-the-exponential-curve/#7dd1c5ff2480