• Benkei
    3.5k
    But the fatality rate wasn't the reason for measures. It was the impact on the healthcare system that required and continues to require measures. The fatality rate wasn't known and everybody who knew what he was talking about didn't talk about the fatality rate but case fatality rate. The problem in the end is no pre-existing immunity anywhere with a high reproduction rate.
  • Tzeentch
    828
    But the fatality rate wasn't the reason for measures. It was the impact on the healthcare system that required and continues to require measures.Benkei

    The strain on our medical facilities wasn't caused by covid itself, but by the disproportionate measures that were taken and never reversed. Hospitals are overworked because a large portion of their personnel is "treating" patients who have flu symptoms.

    The fatality rate wasn't known and everybody who knew what he was talking about didn't talk about the fatality rate but case fatality rate.Benkei

    Turns out they made wrong assumptions, then. I don't fault people for making wrong decisions when there was no information available. Information is available now, and governments should start acting upon it instead of trying save their hides by pretending they haven't made some grave mistakes.

    The problem in the end is no pre-existing immunity anywhere with a high reproduction rate.Benkei

    Yet we accept this "problem" every year with the flu and other coronaviruses.
  • Benkei
    3.5k
    The strain on the hospital was caused by symptoms too serious to leave untreated, with a 30% mortality rate for those admitted to the hospital and very long stays compared to a 6% mortality rate for the flu when admitted to the hospital and much shorter stays and much more cases requiring treatment than the flu as well.

    Yet we accept this "problem" every year with the flu and other coronaviruses.Tzeentch

    This is bullshit.

    Edit: Look up "immune imprinting". Previous infections with other strains of the same virus matter.
  • Benkei
    3.5k
    Turns out they made wrong assumptions, then. I don't fault people for making wrong decisions when there was no information available. Information is available now, and governments should start acting upon it instead of trying save their hides by pretending they haven't made some grave mistakes.Tzeentch

    This we can talk about. Typically Dutch is no wish to punish. As an example, some hairsalons only take 1.5 m distance, others insist on ventilation, masks for personnel and clients and 1.5 m. In that last situation, barely any chance of infection arises but both are treated the same. If a client has covid, the hairdresser that cut his hair has to go into quarantine for 10 days. Instead, if you require ventilation and mask wearing and punish by locking the entire salon for 2 weeks if measures aren't taken regardless of an infection, you actually start having sensible rules and you sobe require such extreme lock downs.
  • Isaac
    3k
    The strain on the hospital was caused by symptoms too serious to leave untreated, with a 30% mortality rate for those admitted to the hospital and very long stays compared to a 6% mortality rate for the flu when admitted to the hospital and much shorter stays and much more cases requiring treatment than the flu as well.Benkei

    Where are you getting those figures from? I can't find a source newer than the sources for CFR, and it seems rather short-sighted to counter the implications of estimates of fatality being wrong by using data from the same cohort as has just been shown to contain (albeit inevitable and understandable) estimation errors. We'd need a newer, preferably similarly collated, estimate of critical care pressure to properly support such a counter argument, should such a source exist.

    Obviously the case for increased pressure on critical care in general is a no-brainer, but with shutdown of 'non-emergency' services to factor in, critical care capacity is not a blank cheque for any and all lockdown strategies to be considered justified.
  • Benkei
    3.5k
    Where are you getting those figures from?Isaac

    I honestly don't know. My dad mentioned it today when I was talking to him. I do know it's based on Dutch figures with respect to the first wave. It's also expected the fatality rate in hospital admitted case will be lower this time around but it won't near the 6%.

    I agree that an important factor missing from considerations is the knock on effects of measures. It's buried somewhere in this thread but I raised it before: just the deaths resulting from the poverty might outweigh some choices being made. There are definitely models available for this but they're not used. Same for deaths due to standard care being delayed. There's a reason policy is aimed at a certain length for the waiting list. But that data isn't used.

    Edit: Also, it's not CFR, if that causes the confusion. It's a subset of cases.
  • ssu
    3.3k
    Interesting to see that now Sweden isn't taking a hit anymore as before.

    Sweden-1-1024x648.png
    https%3A%2F%2Fd6c748xw2pzm8.cloudfront.net%2Fprod%2Fa8625ab0-f28d-11ea-b189-b34d5a9e2a57-standard.png?source=google-amp&fit=scale-down&width=500

    In fact, the numbers of new infections in Sweden is quite the same as other Nordic countries and Estonia without any huge spikes upward:
    Ej4LSkuXcAAlgxl.jpg

    Not only has the lethality of the pandemic obviously decreased, but now interestingly countries are on different path.

    The reason that Sweden opted for a more lax policy is of course Anders Tegnell, who recommendations the leftist administration has followed. Yet even now herd immunity as an policy option is refuted even by Tegnell himself: "people getting infected on purpose is of course not [in] accordance with any public health policy. We tried to slow down the spread of the virus as much as anybody else in any other country. And we managed to slow it down just as much as most other countries. It took slightly longer than other countries. On the other hand, we don't have the resurgence of the disease that those countries have. - In the end, we will see how much difference it will make to have a strategy that's more sustainable that you can keep in place for a long time instead of the strategy that means that you lockdown, open and lockdown over and over again."
  • frank
    5.4k
    I'm hoping Italy isn't as bad as the numbers indicate.

    Jesse!
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