Oh, of course, it's just absurd to think other states than the US would deceive and disinform its public. Yes, it's absolutely impossible. — Merkwurdichliebe

Ah yes, the classic "they're all in on it" argument. Turning contrary evidence into supporting evidence with just one small leap of irrationality.

I wasn’t dismissing the criticism. I was merely asking why the criticism is US-centric, why other governments, international institutions, and those we pay vast sums of cash to warn us of such threats, are given a pass.

There is a horrific case in Quebec, Canada, where 31 care home residents have died, only 5 of which were attributed to covid-19. It is possible the rest died due to gross negligence. The stories coming out of there are horrific.

https://globalnews.ca/news/6810089/quebec-coroner-to-investigate-31-deaths-at-seniors-home-in-montreal/

Oh, of course, it's just absurd to think other states than the US would deceive and disinform its public. Yes, it's absolutely impossible.
— Merkwurdichliebe

Ah yes, the classic "they're all in on it" argument. Turning contrary evidence into supporting evidence with just one small leap of irrationality. — Echarmion

What are you blabbering about? Who's all in on it?
Are you referring to the moronic rabble gobbling up the hype? They are definitely "all in on it".

"We are completely devastated that this many residents have lost their lives to what we believe to be Covid-19."

So, they didn't even test them?

Except for:

"One resident who tested positive for the virus is in hospital."

Sorry, but what??

I thought I had already mentioned this.

1. Most people in are homes are not being taken to hospital with suspected CV because it is "not in their interest".

2. People who do not go to hospital are not being tested for CV.

3. People who have not been tested are not counted as 'confirmed cases, or as deaths from CV.

Therefore:

4. The cases and deaths published daily are underestimates by at a very rough guess 50% to 150%.

I know I did mention that this government is being accused by me of deliberate genocide.

Most people in care homes are not being taken to hospital with suspected CV because it is "not in their interest". — unenlightened

That was the bit I missed. Sick.

This report mentions the underreporting of Coronavirus-linked deaths:

What are you blabbering about? Who's all in on it? — Merkwurdichliebe

So let me put this in simple terms:

You make a claim "the CDC is fabricating numbers to induce a panic", and provide some evidence in support.

Then I say "what about all the other countries?". This is evidence that contradicts your initial claim. You need to deal with this contrary evidence somehow, or else your claim is weakend.

You say "well they're all doing the same". Instead of updating your view based on the contrary evidence, you simply incorporate into your view. You updated your claim from a US conspiracy to a world conspiracy, without supplying further evidence. Logically, your new claim would need much more and much stronger evidence, since it's so much broader. But since you simply took my objection and turned it around, you have no such need. That's the small leap of irrationality that leads to a big dumb conspiracy theory.

Then I say "what about all the other countries?". This is evidence that contradicts your initial claim. — Echarmion

Evidence? Evidence of what? Obviously evidence that you don't understand what constitutes evidence.

Instead of updating your view based on the contrary evidence, you simply incorporate into your view. — Echarmion

How cute, you want me to think like your kind. I'm not flattered, and no thanks.

big dumb conspiracy theory. — Echarmion

It is no conspiracy that the idiotic public has gone mad over a load of inconclusive and suspect information backed independently by sovereign states across the globe. And it's no conspiracy that the idiotic public is willing to invent any reason in order to justify its mass stupidity...
although I admit, it's much too easy to follow the crowd, especially when one is cowardly.

Thanks for that. What a lot of people there are making it all up, and exaggerating.

Yes, Channel 4 News is breaking the story. The chief medical officer said that as of today 13.5% of care homes in England have a confirmed case. In Scotland it's 33%. The England figures are likely an underestimate due to lack of testing.

None of them are in any way equipped to deal with it and hospitals aren't accepting the patients.

although I admit, it's much too easy to follow the crowd, especially when one is cowardly. — Merkwurdichliebe

Cute :wink:
Have fun in your little corner.

That's odd. If they aren't reporting nursing facility COVID-19 deaths, then why is the UK's death total so high? There was this.

Did the UK just decide not to ramp up to meet the demand? That would explain the death total, but, I mean, that would be crazy.

Or maybe they had no options because of Brexit. Woops!

Cute :wink:
Have fun in your little corner. — Echarmion

social distancing, right? :lol:

As we now know, the IHME model used by the US government to set policy was wildly inaccurate.

An international group of statisticians from CTDS, Northwestern University and the University of Texas have released a paper (pdf, 2.5MB) investigating the predictive performance of the model developed by Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME). The IHME model is is used to predict ventilator use, hospital bed requirements and other resourcing for US states response to COVID-19.

The key findings are:

In excess of 70% of US states had actual death rates falling outside the 95% prediction interval for that state, (see Figure 1)

The ability of the model to make accurate predictions decreases with increasing amount of data. (figure 2)

Improved predictive modelling needed for adequate provision of ventilators, PPE, medical staff at a local level

https://www.sydney.edu.au/data-science/home.html

That's odd. If they aren't reporting nursing facility COVID-19 deaths, then why is the UK's death total so high? There was this.

Did the UK just decide not to ramp up to meet the demand? That would explain the death total, but, I mean, that would be crazy.

They are only reporting deaths in hospital of patients tested positive for Covid19. There are more accurate figures published by the ONS every two weeks, we will get the updated figures tomorrow. It is generally accepted that the actual death rate is about twice the reported figure.

The UK has ramped up for the surge, they have around 6,000 extra beds available in temporary hospitals set up in exhibition halls. Although they are way short of ventilators.

Also If you've been reading my posts and Unenlightened's comments, you would know that in the UK, there is an unspoken policy of letting Covid19 run through the care homes unhindered, relieving the government of a social care crisis in the future. It's all part of their herd immunity policy.

Although I suspect that Johnson has had a Damascene conversion following his own infection.

Their data probably just needs to be updated. As it is, it doesn't make much sense. Too many deaths.

I didn't see the figures you're referencing, but the figure of the number of people infected is not accurate because it is a function of the number of tests being carried out and the policy is that if you have symptoms to stay at home and only contact the health service if you begin to have difficulty breathing while at rest. The assumption is that there are large numbers infected, with no attempt to test them.

Yep. Sorry about the nursing home deaths.

Although I suspect that Johnson has had a Damascene conversion following his own infection. — Punshhh

Any reason for your uncharacteristic optimism?

People in care homes are amongst the most vulnerable in society, not to mention the loneliest and most neglected. Excluding them from COVID testing and treatment is despicable. I don't have the words.

Here's an old Danish poster from 1918 (attached), so just over a century ago. Let me try translating:

Precautions against spread of the flu

1. observe the best possible cleanliness
2. cover your mouth with your hand when coughing or sneezing
3. watch for anyone coughing, sneezing or speaking to you in close proximity to your face
4. keep the phone clean, in particular if used by many
5. vent rooms well
6. keep the healthy away from the sick as best possible
7. avoid unnecessary visits to the sick
8. do not get up too early after recovery
9. avoid places with many people
10. postpone larger meetings and assemblies
11. don't take the tram more than necessary
12. ensure the children get fresh air

The health board, 17th Oct 1918

More or less the same advice today. Old news. Common sense.

More or less the same advice today. Old news. Common sense. — jorndoe

Everything except mandated mask wearing. This generation is pitiful.

I wasn’t dismissing the criticism. I was merely asking why the criticism is US-centric, why other governments, international institutions, and those we pay vast sums of cash to warn us of such threats, are given a pass. — NOS4A2

People are usually critical of their country's responses. I've been positive but also critical about my country's response. There has been a lot of debate about the policies implemented by Sweden, many of it critical, hence not all is US-centric.

People in care homes are amongst the most vulnerable in society, not to mention the loneliest and most neglected. Excluding them from COVID testing and treatment is despicable. I don't have the words. — Baden

If only the UK had universal public healthcare we wouldn't be seeing such things.

More or less the same advice today. Old news. Common sense. — jorndoe

If they cared about saving lives back then they wouldn't have written it in gibberish.

People are usually critical of their country's responses. I've been positive but also critical about my country's response. There has been a lot of debate about the policies implemented by Sweden, many of it critical, hence not all is US-centric. — ssu

It's true, but I think it's hard for many not to use this crisis to call into question Trump, capitalism, autonomy, and other Americanisms to show it's somehow a failed system.

But in true American form, Americans really don't care what the world thinks about them.

I really don't see how this answers my question, which is specifically how the delay in social distancing has resulting in a measurable loss of life, unless you can show that the treatment received under the current conditions has limited the healthcare received and that limitation can be specifically shown to matter. — Hanover

Even if you don't consider the healthcare angle, delays in implementing quarantine measures do that.

(1) How quickly a disease spreads controls the growth rate of infected cases.
(2) The growth rate of a disease in a population is controlled by how infectious it is in the circumstances it may transmit.
(3) The more likely the circumstances it may transmit are to occur, the more quickly it spreads.
(4) The more quickly it spreads, the higher its growth rate.
(5) More growth rate increases over time yield higher proportions of infected people.

(3) combined with (4-5) lets you consider counterfactuals; if intervention X was taken at time t, what would the growth rate have been? Growth rate calculations let you predict disease effects. You compare the counterfactual situation of doing whatever intervention vs not doing it, and if the only thing that was changed was the intervention (like social distancing), the discrepancy between the two scenarios in whatever statistic you like is attributable to the intervention (or lack of it).

It's exactly the same logic as in this scenario: if you've been gross enough at some point in your life to have a pan go mouldy, and you choose not to wash it on a given day, the next day's extra mould is attributable to your lack of washing the blooming thing, just as washing the blooming thing makes the mould goes away.

Or the same logic as vaccinations; if we agree they are responsible for saving lives, administrative responses to pandemics can be responsible for killing people.