When someone shuffles a deck of cards and deals you the first twenty cards, the probability of getting those specific cards is extremely unlikely. Yet we have no problem accepting that you will get an extremely unlikely hand. — Wheatley
When someone shuffles a deck of cards and deals you the first twenty cards, the probability of getting those specific cards is extremely unlikely. — Wheatley
When someone shuffles a deck of cards and deals you the first twenty cards, the probability of getting those specific cards is extremely unlikely. Yet we have no problem accepting that you will get an extremely unlikely hand. — Wheatley
What is the fundamental difference between these two examples? And is there a principle on deciding whether or not it is rational to accept the improbable? — Wheatley
Never.
Being rational is using reason and using reason is providing reasons to support some conclusion. If you don't have reasons to support your conclusion, or your reasons to support some conclusion are improbable, then you aren't being rational. — Harry Hindu
Not sure if we can estimate the probability that your friend is lying — Wheatley
Suppose a friend messages you on Facebook that he just won the Powerball jackpot. The chance of winning the jackpot is 1 in 292,201,338. Do you believe him based on that message? Not sure if we can estimate the probability that your friend is lying, but let's just assume that your friend is not the type to joke like that.
The probability that your friend won the the Powerball jackpot is 1 in 292,201,338. The probability that your friend is lying is likewise is very slim. Either way, you have to choose to believe in something improbable, am I right? — Wheatley
How do you know how probable the existence of life is? It seems certain that life exists in this universe, not probable.You can have rational reasons for believing the improbable. Its highly improbable that life exists on a rock floating through oblivion but none the less that's what happened. In fact, highly improbable things happen all the time, its not irrational to believe those things actually do happen — DingoJones
The probability that your friend won the the Powerball jackpot is 1 in 292,201,338. The probability that your friend is lying is likewise is very slim. Either way, you have to choose to believe in something improbable, am I right? — Wheatley
Sure we can; he is lying or he isn’t lying. No such thing as a partial lie. The probability is exactly .5. — Mww
When someone shuffles a deck of cards and deals you the first twenty cards, the probability of getting those specific cards is extremely unlikely. Yet we have no problem accepting that you will get an extremely unlikely hand.
On the other hand, it's also extremely unlikely that your child will ever be a member of the National Basketball Association. Almost no one will accept that their son will be in the NBA. It would be considered foolish to believe.
What is the fundamental difference between these two examples? And is there a principle on deciding whether or not it is rational to accept the improbable? — Wheatley
What is the fundamental difference between these two examples? And is there a principle on deciding whether or not it is rational to accept the improbable? — Wheatley
Either you are misusing probabilities or you are being unreasonable. — SophistiCat
Do you believe him based on that message? — Wheatley
When I mentioned the probability of life I was speaking from a normal, probabilistic sense. I wasnt using this “probability after the fact” version, though I can see now I could have been more precise. I should have said “for life to have formed” or “for life to come to exist” instead of “for life to exist”. My mistake, but my points still stand. — DingoJones
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